Back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Caden here in [music] Chicago alongside Sam Bodis at the New York Stock Exchange. We'll close out this Thursday's show with some thoughts on the session today.Some takeaways for me. Our labor market data drought is finally over. We got September's non-farm payrolls report this morning.The economy added 119,000 jobs in the month, which topped expectations for 50,000. That's in contrast to the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a downward revision. July was also revised do ...

Core Viewpoint - Evercore ISI has lowered its price target for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings to $85 from $100, maintaining an In Line rating due to near-term margin pressures and slowing comparable-store sales [1] Financial Estimates - FY2025 EPS estimate has been cut to $4.25 and FY2026 EPS to $4.65, with expectations of modest price and wage investments to support market share and inventory turnover [2] - Q3 comparable sales growth is forecasted to be below 2%, compared to Street estimates of 2.5%, with EPS expected at $1.07, slightly below the consensus of $1.10 [3] Margin and Profitability - A 60-basis-point decline in gross margin is modeled as BJ's invests in pricing to strengthen member loyalty, while fuel mix and penny profit pressures weigh on profitability [3] - EBIT margin is forecasted at 4%, down 60 bps year over year, with EBIT expected to be $210 million, representing a 9% decline compared to the prior year [3] Future Guidance - Management is likely to guide for a 1–2% comparable sales growth in the fourth quarter, implying EPS of $0.88–$0.92 versus Street estimates of $0.94 [4] Executive Changes - Recent executive changes, including the departure of Chief Merchant Rachel Vegas to Walgreens, may indicate challenges in BJ's merchandising strategy [5] - Despite improvements in general merchandise offerings, comparable sales in the 2–3% range suggest market share softness relative to expectations for steady 3–4% growth and operating margin expansion [5]

Group 1 - Warren Buffett's performance as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway is under scrutiny as the company underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, with Berkshire stock up 11.3% compared to the S&P 500's 16.9% gain [5] - Berkshire Hathaway significantly increased its stake in Pool Corp by 136% in Q2 2025, following a 145% increase in Q1 2025, bringing the total shares held to 3,458,885 [2] - Pool Corp, a leading distributor of pool equipment, has missed revenue estimates for three consecutive quarters, resulting in a decline in its stock price from $291.48 at the end of Q2 to $251.87 [3] Group 2 - The current value of Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Pool Corp is approximately $871.19 million, reflecting a loss of around $137 million or 13.6% since the end of Q2 [4] - The upcoming third-quarter 13F filing from Berkshire Hathaway is anticipated to reveal any new positions or changes in existing investments, particularly regarding Pool Corp [6]

Group 1: Costco Product Recall - Costco is recalling over 940,000 bottles of its Kirkland Signature Prosecco Valdobbiadene due to a "laceration hazard" from bottles unexpectedly shattering, with at least one injury reported [3][4]. - The affected prosecco was sold for approximately $8 per bottle in several U.S. states between April 2025 and August 2025 [4]. Group 2: UPS and FedEx Aviation Safety Measures - UPS and FedEx have temporarily grounded their fleets of McDonnell Douglas MD-11 cargo jets following a fatal crash in Louisville, Kentucky, that claimed 14 lives [5][6]. - The grounding affects about 9% of UPS's airline fleet and 4% of FedEx's fleet, with FedEx grounding its 28 MD-11s out of approximately 700 total aircraft [6]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and AI Boom - Investor confidence in the economic outlook and the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is wavering, prompting a reassessment of high valuations in the technology sector [7][9]. - Fund managers are reportedly increasing demand for dividend-paying equities, U.S. Treasury bonds, and gold as part of a broader risk management strategy [8]. Group 4: Global Billionaire Wealth Trends - The global billionaire count has reached a record high of 3,508 individuals, marking a 5.6% growth in 2024, with total net worth surging by 10.3% to a record $13.4 trillion [10][11]. - U.S. billionaires account for approximately one-third of the global total and control 43% of the world's total billionaire fortune, driven largely by the strong performance of U.S. technology stocks and gains in the AI sector [11].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 was flat on Monday, while the Nasdaq advanced due to a rally in Amazon shares following a $38 billion cloud commitment from OpenAI, which is seen as a positive sign for the market [1] - Nvidia received a significant price target increase from Loop Capital, raising it from $250 to $350 per share, indicating that these tech companies may be undervalued [1] - Costco was highlighted as a top pick by Oppenheimer, with a revised price target of $1,050 from $1,130, suggesting that the stock is trading at a more attractive valuation [1] Group 2 - Eaton announced a $9.5 billion acquisition of Boyd Thermal, which is expected to enhance Eaton's portfolio in thermal management products, particularly for data centers, with Boyd forecasting sales of $1.7 billion for 2026 [1] - The acquisition is anticipated to positively impact Eaton's stock performance due to its strategic alignment with data center operations [1] - Stocks mentioned in the rapid-fire segment included Kimberly-Clark and Berkshire Hathaway, indicating ongoing interest in these companies [1]

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown is in its second week, causing delays in key economic reports, including unemployment claims and inflation data [1] - Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [1] Market Reactions and Fed Comments - Dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams support bonds and stocks, indicating a willingness to back lower rates if economic conditions evolve as expected [2] - Stock indexes have rallied to record highs due to optimism in the AI sector and expectations of additional Fed easing [2] Stock Performance - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.24%, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indexes also show declines [4] - Delta Air Lines has raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast, leading to a stock increase of more than +5% [3][16] - Costco Wholesale reported stronger-than-expected September sales, resulting in a stock increase of more than +2% [3][19] Corporate Earnings Expectations - Over 22% of S&P 500 companies have provided guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to exceed analysts' expectations, the highest in a year [7] - Q3 profits are projected to rise by +7.2%, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is expected to slow to +5.9% [7] Safe-Haven Assets - The ongoing government shutdown and political uncertainties are driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin, with gold prices soaring above $4,000 an ounce [5] International Market Developments - Overseas stock markets are mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.21% and China's Shanghai Composite closing up +1.32% after reopening [8]

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced a rise on Friday, with the S&P 500 increasing by 0.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 299 points (0.7%), and the Nasdaq composite adding 0.4%, helping to reduce weekly losses [1][2] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,643.70, the Dow at 46,247.29, and the Nasdaq at 22,484.07 [8] Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 2.7% in August from 2.6% in July, which, while above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, aligned with economists' forecasts [2][3] - Consumer sentiment showed weakness, with a University of Michigan survey indicating frustration with high prices, although inflation expectations for the next 12 months slightly decreased to 4.7% from 4.8% [10][11] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's potential for continued interest rate cuts is critical for Wall Street, as expectations for these cuts have driven U.S. stocks to record highs since April [3][4] - The Fed recently implemented its first rate cut of the year, but further cuts are uncertain due to concerns about worsening inflation [4] Tariffs and Market Reactions - President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imports, including pharmaceutical drugs and heavy trucks, has created uncertainty among analysts regarding their ultimate effects on the market [5][6] - Companies like Paccar, Eli Lilly, and Pfizer saw stock increases following the tariff announcement, while home furnishing companies experienced volatility in their stock prices [6][7] International Market Trends - European stock indexes rose after declines in Asia, with France's CAC 40 climbing 1% and South Korea's Kospi dropping 2.5% [9] Upcoming Events - A potential U.S. government shutdown is on the horizon, with a deadline set for next week, but historical data suggests limited impact on the market from such political events [12]

Market Overview - Most U.S. stocks are rising, with the S&P 500 up 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 211 points or 0.5% [3][4] - The Nasdaq composite is down 0.1% due to declines in some major tech stocks, but all three indexes are near their all-time highs [3][4] Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 2.7% last month from 2.6% in July, which is above the Federal Reserve's 2% target but aligns with economists' forecasts [4][5] - The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates for the first time this year, with more cuts anticipated through the end of next year, although there are concerns about the potential impact on inflation [5][6] Tariffs and Market Reactions - President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imports, including pharmaceuticals and furniture, is expected to influence inflation and market dynamics [7][8] - Companies like Paccar and major pharmaceutical firms saw stock increases, while home furnishing retailers experienced volatility in their stock prices due to potential higher import costs [8][9] Company Performance - Costco Wholesale's stock fell 1.9% despite reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly profits, attributed to slower membership renewal rates and disappointing revenue growth [10] - Consumer sentiment is reported to be weaker than expected, with inflation expectations slightly decreasing from 4.8% to 4.7% [11][12] Broader Market Sentiment - Investors are generally accustomed to political impasses, such as the potential U.S. government shutdown, which historically have limited impact on the market [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale Corporation's stock has decreased from approximately $999 to around $943, reflecting a decline of about 5.6% since June [1]. Company Analysis - The primary concern regarding Costco is its high stock price rather than the company's fundamentals [1]. - The analysis emphasizes a disciplined approach to evaluating companies, focusing on numerical data and underlying business performance rather than market narratives [1].

Core Insights - Costco's stock fell over 2% following fourth quarter results that showed US same-store sales slightly below forecasts, amid a challenging consumer environment and competition from Walmart's Sam's Club [1] Financial Performance - Costco's revenue reached $86.16 billion, surpassing expectations of $86.03 billion, while adjusted earnings per share were $5.87, exceeding the forecast of $5.82 [2] - For fiscal year 2025, Costco reported annual revenue of $275.24 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $18.21, higher than the estimated $18.10 [4] Sales Growth - Same-store sales grew by 6.4%, slightly above the expected 6.2%, with US same-store sales increasing by 6%, just below the 6.1% forecast [3] - Canadian same-store sales grew by 8.3%, exceeding the predicted 6.8%, while international sales were up 7.2%, matching estimates [3] Consumer Behavior - CFO Gary Millerchip emphasized the importance of "everyday value items" during economic uncertainty, noting that customers are selective with discretionary spending [5] - Popular items included hot dog combos, rotisserie chickens, and Kirkland Signature bath tissue, with over 245 million hot dog combos sold in fiscal year 2025 [6] Membership and Competition - Membership fee income increased by 14% year-over-year to $1.72 billion, with a 6.1% rise in cardholders [7] - CEO Ron Vachris acknowledged the awareness of new competition in the market and the need to monitor it closely [8]