Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or assets discussed Core Insights - Uncertainty surrounding US tax and trade policy, along with significant US dollar weakness, suggests a potential global shift away from US dollar-denominated assets [1] - The cross-currency (XCCY) basis market can be utilized to gauge demand for US dollars and related assets, indicating a trend where investors show less interest in USD-denominated assets while favoring EUR and JPY assets [7][15] - The report anticipates that the tightening trend in the XCCY basis will persist until Federal Reserve rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets on a foreign exchange-hedged basis [16][97] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - In times of global market stress, investors typically seek safe haven currencies, with the USD historically reinforcing comfort in USD-denominated assets [8] - Post "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025, the USD showed unusual depreciation against other currencies, raising questions about its safe haven status [11][68] XCCY Basis Market Dynamics - The XCCY basis reflects offshore demand for long-term USD funding and onshore demand for non-USD-denominated assets [7][14] - Recent movements in the XCCY basis indicate a reduced appetite for USD-denominated assets and an increased interest in EUR and JPY assets [15][16] - The report outlines key drivers of the XCCY basis, including supply and demand factors for both currencies, with negative spreads indicating a premium for borrowing USD [22][24] Key Drivers of XCCY Basis - Short-term drivers include USD liquidity, regulatory constraints, and demand for foreign assets, while medium- to long-term drivers focus on overseas asset demand and issuance-related factors [25][35][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the XCCY basis as it provides high-frequency signals regarding foreign demand for USD and USD-denominated assets [65][77] Recent Market Observations - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, negative CCY/SOFR basis swap spreads widened but quickly normalized, indicating limited investor flight to quality [78][82] - The report suggests that diminished demand for USD among offshore investors may be occurring, with US investors showing increased interest in overseas assets [85][96]

June 18, 2025 07:37 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Pan's Plan for RMB in A Multipolar Monetary World Key Takeaways The remark by PBoC Governor at today's Lujiazui Forum highlights steady steps towards RMB internationalization and a broader advocate for a multipolar global financial system. The governor cited: (1) the tension between self-interest and provision of global public goods; (2) spillover of domestic policy; and (3) weaponization of currency in geopolitical competition. Rather than enjoying ...

央视网消息：6月18日在陆家嘴论坛上发布的多项重要政策，将推动我国金融开放再提速。这些政策如何理解？哪些值得大家特别关注？ 来听总台央视记者王雷财经老王给我们"划重点"。 重点一：上海将设立数字人民币国际运营中心 这一举措可谓意义非凡。这意味着以后数字人民币在跨境金融中的使用率会大大提升，交易成本也能减少。但更重要的是，这更是人民币 走向国际舞台的重要一步，人民币的国际影响力也会得到增强。 重点四：上海国际金融中心建设要提速 金融监管总局将与上海市政府联合发布《支持上海国际金融中心建设行动方案》，鼓励上海在科技金融、跨境金融等领域开展创新试点。 这一行动方案的发布，意味着上海建设国际金融中心从战略层面有了更清晰的方案，建设将会明显提速。 老王认为，这波政策释放出一个重要积极信号：中国金融开放的大门正在越开越大，这也彰显了我国在金融领域积极拥抱世界、不断创新 发展的决心。中国充满活力和潜力的超大规模市场，过去是、现在是、将来也必然是全球金融机构展业兴业的沃土。 中国证监会明确表态，将在科创板设置科创成长层。有了成长层，硬科技企业不盈利也能上市，科创企业有了上市的绿色通道，在资本市 场融资更加畅通了！ 重点三：国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong International Financial Center Collaborative Development Action Plan" aims to enhance cooperation and connectivity between Shanghai and Hong Kong, leveraging their complementary strengths as financial centers [1] Group 1: Collaborative Development - The Action Plan serves as a framework to optimize existing connectivity, expanding the range of products included, such as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and RMB counters [1] - The collaboration is expected to improve liquidity in both markets through enhanced interconnectivity [1] - Hong Kong is positioned to better serve mainland enterprises, facilitating their international ventures and providing essential services like risk management and legal support [1] Group 2: Digital Assets and Regulations - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" was passed in May and will take effect on August 1, emphasizing the need for anti-money laundering measures and investor protection in digital asset regulation [1] - A second digital asset policy declaration is set to be released by the government, focusing on integrating digital assets with the real economy [1] - The possibility of stablecoins being pegged to the Renminbi is not ruled out, but it requires careful consideration of national exchange rates and monetary policy [2]

投研笔记 热点 6月18日A股探底回升，三大指数小幅上涨，但个股跌多涨少，超3400只股票下跌，成交额1.19万亿元。 PCB、军工装备、AI眼镜等板块领涨，美容护理、脑机接口等板块下跌。银行股因防御属性受资金青 睐；啤酒板块反弹，夏季消费旺季将至；军贸板块因地缘冲突升温大涨；非银金融板块因避险情绪走 弱。PCB概念股集体爆发，受Meta新一代AI芯片需求刺激；AI算力板块全线走强。拓普集团因马斯克 透露机器人新进展上涨3%。市场热点轮动较快，资金偏向防御性板块和科技成长方向。 01 A股复盘 益研究 6月18日，市场全天探底回升，三大指数小幅上涨。沪深两市全天成交额1.19万亿，较上个交易日缩量 161亿。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少，全市场超3400只个股下跌。 板块方面，PCB、CPO、军工装备、AI眼镜等板块涨幅居前，美容护理、草甘膦、稀土永磁、脑机接口 等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指涨0.04%，深成指涨0.24%，创业板指涨0.23%。 资料来源：益研究 02 行业热点 01 银行股早盘普涨 防御属性受资金青睐 今日早盘银行板块表现强势，上海银行、浦发银行等多家银行股价上涨。分析认为，近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The digital banking space is identified as an attractive investment arena, with a focus on companies like Alkami Technology and Q2 Holdings, which are modernizing customer-facing software for credit unions and regional banks [1][3]. Company Summaries - **Alkami Technology**: - Rated as Overweight by the analyst, with organic revenue growth exceeding 20% and trading at six times EV/Sales for 2026E [4]. - Holds less than 5% market share in a ~$10 billion market, with up to 60% of the market being an addressable opportunity [3]. - Benefits from high customer retention and long contract lengths, supporting revenue visibility [1]. - **Q2 Holdings**: - Also rated as Overweight, with similar characteristics to Alkami Technology in terms of customer retention and contract lengths [1]. - Holds less than 10% market share in the same ~$10 billion market, with significant growth potential [3]. - **nCino**: - Rated as Neutral, focusing on cloud-based banking software solutions for financial institutions [2]. - The analyst has noted idiosyncratic factors that have kept her on the sidelines regarding nCino compared to broader vertical SaaS [2]. Market Dynamics - The digital banking industry is characterized by a defensive monetization model based on the number of bank accounts and products subscribed to by banks [2]. - The opportunity for improving bank efficiency is described as seemingly limitless, indicating a strong growth potential for the sector [2]. Price Actions - As of publication, stock prices are as follows: - Alkami Technology (ALKT) is up 5.26% at $28.24 - Q2 Holdings (QTWO) is up 3.56% at $89.07 - nCino (NCNO) is down 0.44% at $26.96 [5].

Core Insights - The article compares Goldman Sachs (GS) and Moelis & Company (MC), highlighting their distinct business models within the investment banking industry, with GS being a global financial giant and MC being a focused advisory-driven boutique [1][2]. Goldman Sachs (GS) - GS maintains a leadership position in global investment banking, particularly in M&A advisory, equity, and debt underwriting, with a 24% increase in IB revenues in 2024 due to a rebound in corporate financing activity [3]. - However, GS experienced an 8% decline in IB revenues in Q1 2025, attributed to market turmoil and uncertainty over monetary policy, though its leading position in deal-making suggests enduring client trust [4]. - The firm is strategically exiting lower-margin consumer finance businesses to focus on high-return sectors like investment banking and trading, including ending its partnership with Apple on the Apple Card and Apple Savings account [5]. - Goldman Asset Management aims for aggressive growth in private credit, targeting a portfolio of $300 billion by 2030, reinforcing its long-term growth potential [6]. Moelis & Company (MC) - MC demonstrates resilient performance driven by its high-quality advisory platform, achieving a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over five years despite revenue declines in 2019, 2022, and 2023 [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from structural tailwinds in M&A and capital advisory, with elevated corporate debt levels driving demand for restructuring services [8]. - MC's business is diversified across various sectors and geographies, with no significant client concentration, and has advised on over $5.1 trillion in transactions since inception [9]. - MC projects a 42.4% year-over-year earnings growth for 2026, significantly outpacing GS's projected 13.1% growth, and offers a higher dividend yield of 4.64% compared to GS's 1.92% [10][22]. Performance and Valuation Comparison - Over the past year, GS shares gained 38.7%, while MC shares increased by 7.5%, both outperforming the industry average rise of 33.1% [11]. - GS is currently trading at a forward P/E of 13.26X, higher than its five-year median of 10.16X, while MC trades at a forward P/E of 25.65X, above its five-year median of 20.16X [14]. - Both companies have dividend yields exceeding the industry average, with MC having a notable edge [16]. Estimates and Growth Potential - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GS indicates a revenue rise of 3.8% and 5.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth of 9.6% and 13.1% [19]. - In contrast, MC's estimates reflect a revenue increase of 2.8% and 20.9% for 2025 and 2026, with earnings growth of 0.6% and 42.4% [20]. - MC's advisory-driven model aligns well with the rising demand for restructuring services, indicating significant long-term potential [21][22]. - Despite trading at a premium valuation, MC's market capitalization of $4.4 billion compared to GS's $188.3 billion suggests more room for growth [23].

Core Points - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai announced eight measures to promote the construction of an international financial center, highlighting China's commitment to welcoming foreign investment in its financial market [2][3] - Shanghai aims to enhance its global financial resource allocation capabilities and build world-class exchanges, while continuing to optimize its financial market structure and deepen market connectivity [4][7] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration emphasized its unwavering determination to expand high-level financial openness and create a mutually beneficial financial development framework [5][6] Group 1: Measures to Attract Foreign Investment - The forum revealed multiple policies aimed at boosting foreign financial investment in China, providing significant confidence to foreign financial institutions [3][5] - Specific initiatives include optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and expanding the range of tradable products for foreign investors [5][6] - The introduction of a series of facilitation policies, such as reducing the negative list for capital project income usage, aims to support international economic cooperation [2][6] Group 2: Financial Market Development - The Shanghai government plans to enhance the efficiency and activity of its financial market, focusing on internationalization and structural optimization [4][7] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration will replicate successful practices from free trade zones to promote greater openness in the financial sector [4][6] - Future initiatives will include promoting cross-border capital pooling for multinational corporations and encouraging green foreign debt policies [7][8] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Support - The regulatory bodies are committed to creating a transparent, stable, and predictable policy environment for foreign investors [5][9] - Continuous optimization of the foreign investment business environment is a priority, with a focus on legal construction and maintaining fair market order [5][10] - The forum highlighted the importance of foreign institutions in China's capital market, emphasizing their role in enhancing governance and operational efficiency [7][9]

近日，中央金融委员会印发《关于支持加快建设上海国际金融中心的意见》。《意见》明确提出六大主 要举措。上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚向记者表示，作为中央层级的政策文件，此次发文 不仅体现出国家对于上海金融中心建设的高度重视，也释放出加快推进金融高水平开放和创新的强烈信 号。 ...

Group 1 - The discussion at the Lujiazui Forum highlighted concerns over the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the global economy and the potential decline of the US dollar as a reserve currency [1][2] - Giovanni TRIA emphasized that the US dollar's status provides the US with significant advantages, allowing it to finance its debts without limits, but the current tariff strategies may weaken confidence in the dollar and US bonds [1][2] - The need for a diversified global currency system was stressed, with the possibility of multiple currencies playing major roles and the issuance of a global Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) being considered [2][3] Group 2 - The role of stablecoins, particularly dollar-pegged stablecoins, was a focal point, with discussions on their potential global impact and the challenges of other currencies achieving similar status [2][3] - Concerns were raised about the implications of dollarization in various economies, with the need for careful consideration of its effects on national economies [3] - The Singapore Monetary Authority highlighted the importance of innovation in digital currencies to enhance financial system efficiency and facilitate cross-border transactions, suggesting that stablecoins may not necessarily lead to dollarization [3]