Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, highlighting its resilience and dividend attributes [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing power supply disruptions affecting aluminum production, suggesting a focus on the sector's elasticity and dividend potential [2]. - It notes that the global economic environment is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, which may benefit sectors like real estate and photovoltaics, leading to a tight supply-demand balance for aluminum and supporting prices [6][7]. - The report also discusses the recent acquisition of exploration rights by Tongling Nonferrous Metals, which is expected to enhance the company's resource reserves and sustainability [6]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 471.046 billion yuan, representing 3.92% of the market [3]. - The sector has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 4.9% over one month, 63.7% over six months, and 56.8% over twelve months [4]. Aluminum Industry Data - Power costs account for 30%-40% of the total cost of electrolytic aluminum, and disruptions in power supply are expected to impact the stability of existing production capacities [6]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 7,000 tons week-on-week, while aluminum rod inventory increased slightly [6]. - The report indicates that the profit margins for electrolytic aluminum are expected to remain high due to strong domestic supply constraints and resilient demand [6]. Copper Industry Data - The report highlights a decrease in copper inventories, with SHFE copper inventory at 115,000 tons, down 1,105 tons week-on-week [6]. - The overall copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the performance of key companies in the sector [7]. Precious Metals Outlook - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [6]. - It recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 20th day with no resolution in sight, as multiple attempts to pass a temporary funding bill have failed, marking the tenth unsuccessful attempt [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold a meeting on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards a further 25 basis point rate cut to support a weakening job market while aiming to bring high inflation back to 2% [1] - Spot gold prices surged over 2% on Monday, reaching a new historical high of $4,381.49 per ounce during trading, closing at $4,355.69 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose by 3.82% to $4,374.30 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of October 20, the Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has seen a net asset value increase of 55.69% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 11.46% since inception [2] - The Shanghai Gold ETF has reached a record high of 377 million shares, with a recent net inflow of 658 million yuan, leading its category [2] - The ETF primarily invests in Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, aiming to provide returns closely aligned with the performance of these contracts while minimizing tracking deviation [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) offers a cost-effective and convenient investment option in gold without physical delivery, supporting T+0 trading [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and record high prices for gold and silver [2][3]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that while short-term tariff uncertainties persist, precious metals are expected to trend upward in the long term due to factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6][8]. - The performance of companies like Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt is noted, with both showing strong revenue growth and profitability in their recent quarterly reports [6][8]. Industry Overview - **Basic Industry Data**: The non-ferrous metals sector comprises 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 45,379.37 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 39,608.97 billion yuan [3]. - **Price Performance**: The absolute performance over the last 12 months is reported at 69.1%, with a relative performance of 50.0% [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Trends**: Gold futures closed at 999.8 yuan per gram, up 10.9% week-on-week, while silver futures rose 10.53% to 12,249 yuan per kilogram [6]. - **Company Performance**: Zijin Mining reported a total revenue of 2,542.0 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, with net profit rising by 55.45% to 378.64 billion yuan [6][8]. New Energy Metals - **Cobalt Market**: The report notes that cobalt prices are on the rise, with the average price for electrolytic cobalt reaching 381,000 yuan per ton, a 9.01% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Company Insights**: Huayou Cobalt's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 589.41 billion yuan, up 29.57% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 39.59% to 42.16 billion yuan [8]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the performance of precious metals stocks, particularly companies like Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as silver stocks such as Xingye Silver Tin [7][8].

Core Insights - International gold prices have surged over 55% this year, reaching $4,200, with a target of $5,000 set by Bank of America for 2026 [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, as indicated by Powell, are expected to support gold prices further [2][3] - Market sentiment and external factors, such as inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, are driving increased investment in gold [5][6] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have increased significantly, moving from the "2 era" to the "4 era" this year, with a current price of $4,200 [2] - Bank of America has raised its gold price target for 2026 to $5,000, a figure that seemed unattainable at the beginning of the year [2] - The market anticipates further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a 97.3% probability for a cut in October [3] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Factors influencing gold prices include the direction of the US dollar index, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, global inflation, and geopolitical changes [4] - Central banks, including China's, are increasing gold reserves, providing a steady influx of capital to support gold prices [4] - Market sentiment is amplifying positive news and minimizing negative news, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current gold market is nearing a 10-year bull cycle, with historical patterns suggesting potential for continued price increases [6] - The phenomenon of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is contributing to heightened market risk aversion and weakening the credibility of the US dollar [5] - Despite the bullish trend, there is a need for caution as the gold market approaches the end of its typical 10-year cycle [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may create both short-term selling opportunities and long-term bullish trends for gold [3][4]. Group 1: Market Data - On September 17, gold prices briefly reached $3700 per ounce before retreating to around $3680, closing at $3689.83, reflecting a 0.30% increase from the previous day [1]. - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, significantly surpassing economists' expectations of 0.2% [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Market participants are largely pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with some speculating on a potential 50 basis point cut due to pressure from President Trump [3]. - A cautious stance from the Federal Reserve could lead to a technical pullback in gold prices, but the overall trend remains bullish for the next year [3]. Group 3: Long-term Gold Outlook - The long-term bullish case for gold is supported by factors such as global monetary policy easing, weakening U.S. dollar credibility, persistent geopolitical risks, and institutional demand for gold from central banks [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the price of gold has surpassed $3,400 per ounce, indicating a restructuring of the global monetary system and a shift in the role of gold from a safe-haven asset to a successor of the monetary system [1] - The World Gold Council reports that 19 out of 36 surveyed central banks are purchasing gold directly from local miners using their own currencies, reflecting a growing appetite for gold among central banks [1] - National Securities suggests that the investment strategy should shift towards long-term holdings and diversified hedging, focusing on physical gold, ETFs, and gold stocks, while monitoring central bank policies and geopolitical events [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities indicates that the precious metals market will continue to differentiate in the second half of the year, with gold prices expected to rise due to weakened dollar credit and increased safe-haven demand [2] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment and tight supply-demand dynamics, leading to accelerated price elasticity [2] - The overall outlook for precious and industrial metals is optimistic, while energy metals require attention to fundamental drivers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market in 2025 is experiencing significant volatility, with prices fluctuating between $3,000 and $3,500 per ounce, influenced by various global economic and geopolitical factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Central banks globally have increased gold purchases, with 2024 seeing over 1,000 tons acquired, and China has consistently added to its gold reserves for eight consecutive months [3]. - The weakening of the dollar's credit system is prompting countries to use gold as a safeguard for foreign exchange reserves, leading to a revaluation of gold's monetary attributes [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern issues, have injected urgency into the gold market, acting as a catalyst for price increases [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar is characterized as a seesaw; signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve typically weaken the dollar and boost gold prices, while rising rate expectations suppress gold [7]. - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations has led to a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, causing a sharp decline in gold prices [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors can engage with the gold market through various financial instruments, such as gold ETFs, which have seen record inflows in the first half of 2025, indicating growing acceptance [12]. - Gold accumulation plans offered by banks allow for systematic investment in gold, averaging costs over time, which can lead to lower overall purchase prices compared to lump-sum investments [14]. - Structured financial products linked to gold provide a balance of risk and return, offering potential annual yields while ensuring a minimum return [15][16]. Group 4: Portfolio Allocation - A recommended allocation for gold in personal investment portfolios ranges from 5% to 15%, depending on life stages, with younger families advised to focus on ETFs and accumulation plans, while retirees should prioritize physical gold for security [18]. - The "three-line strategy" for dynamic adjustment suggests increasing positions when gold prices drop below $3,000 and locking in profits when prices exceed $3,500, while also adjusting for geopolitical risks [20].