M&S has reinstated online delivery on its full range of items, nearly four months after a cyberattack caused chaos for the British clothing and food retailer https://t.co/ETqRhFR5BP ...

Summary of US Consumer Chartbook 3Q 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US consumer market, analyzing labor market trends, income, consumption, sentiment, and credit conditions. Key Points Labor Market & Income - Real labor income growth has decreased from an average of nearly 3.5% in 2024 to just over 2% in 2025, with expectations for further decline due to slowing labor demand and rising inflation [3][12][25] - Employment growth has slowed significantly, with a 3-month average payroll growth now at 35,000, down from 168,000 last year [11][33] - The middle-income cohort, primarily in manufacturing, has seen the weakest employment growth but maintained wage growth of over 4.2% year-on-year [18][23] - The lowest income cohort's wage growth has weakened to just above inflation at 3.2% year-on-year as of June [19][25] - Real disposable personal income growth is projected to slow from 2.2% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026 [8][57] Consumption & Sentiment - Consumption is expected to slow in the second half of 2025, with real consumption growth forecasted to drop to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, down from 3.1% in 2024 [4][7] - Goods consumption is anticipated to decline more sharply due to tariff-induced price increases, particularly affecting durable goods [79] - Consumer sentiment has shown some recovery but remains below last year's levels, with employment expectations continuing to soften [60][62] - Spending intentions for back-to-school shopping are similar to last year, with a net 34% of consumers intending to spend more [66] Credit & Balance Sheet - Household debt has increased, with consumer revolving credit growth slowing, and debt-to-disposable income ratios remaining below pre-COVID levels [108][120] - Delinquencies in auto loans are rising, particularly among subprime borrowers, while credit card delinquencies have stabilized slightly [120] - The personal saving rate was steady at 4.7%, reflecting a drawdown of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic [92] Additional Insights - The report highlights the impact of inflation on lower-income cohorts, which tend to experience higher inflation rates due to their consumption patterns [26] - The fiscal bill is expected to add around 15 basis points to consumption in 2026, but this is minor compared to the negative impacts from trade and immigration policies [4] - The wealth effect on consumer spending is noted to be limited, with consumers increasing spending by less than 10 cents for every dollar increase in wealth [84][85] This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state of the US consumer market, highlighting potential risks and opportunities for investors.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Retail Sector - **Key Markets**: Mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia - **Investor Engagement**: Over 60 investors met during marketing trips in the past two weeks [2][3] Core Insights IP Retail Sector - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: - Positive feedback from consumer specialists regarding potential catalysts in its product pipeline and geographic expansion [2][3] - Management is exercising restraint with a strong new product pipeline that has not yet launched, including larger formats of Labubu and Zimomo [3] - Significant store expansion opportunities in Western markets [3] - **Miniso (MNSO.N)**: - Received broad pessimism due to intense competitive pressures and a history of earnings misses [2][3] Sportswear Sector - **Li Ning (2331.HK)**: - Share price appears to have stabilized, with limited shorting interest but not significant new buying conviction [4] - **ANTA Sports (2020.HK)**: - Generally positive views, with strong performance in FILA and outdoor segments offsetting misses in the core ANTA brand [4] - **Topsport International (6110.HK)**: - Favorable sentiment due to positive comments from Nike regarding new product initiatives [4] Dining Sector - **Haidilao (6862.HK)**: - Negative feedback due to high consensus earnings estimates and a decline in dine-in traffic attributed to aggressive food delivery discounting campaigns [4] Investment Recommendations - **Top Picks**: - **Pop Mart**: Recommended due to its rising global popularity [5] - **ANTA**: Strong demand from outdoor brands supports a buy recommendation [5] Risks and Valuation - **Key Risks for China Consumer Retail**: - Demand recovery variability, cost inflation or deflation, outcomes of reforms, and changes in competitive landscape [7] - **Valuation Methodology**: - DCF-based valuation methodology is used for Pop Mart, Miniso, Li Ning, ANTA, Topsports, and Haidilao [7] Additional Notes - **Market Sentiment**: There is a clear divergence in sentiment between specialists and generalists regarding the potential of companies in the retail sector [2][3] - **Earnings Estimates**: Concerns over high consensus earnings estimates for Haidilao indicate potential risks in the dining sector [4]

August 8, 2025 12:00 PM GMT August 8, 2025 US Economics Our quarterly US Consumer Chartbook, a one-stop shop for monitoring the US consumer, includes analysis and forecasts for three broad categories: Labor Market & Income, Consumption & Sentiment, and Credit & Balance Sheet. Each quarter, we spotlight a topical theme. In this edition, given the recent weakening in labor demand, we look at how labor income has held up and which cohorts have seen the most slowing. US Consumer Chartbook 3Q 2025: What You Need ...

America's quintessential mall retailer. Claire's has filed for bankruptcy again. Claire's, which is known for its endless aisles of accessories and having pierced over 100 million years, first filed for bankruptcy in 2018.That was because it couldn't repay the $1.9% billion at owed at the time. And after years of trying to turn around its business, it's been met with the same fate yet again. You're just not seeing your tweens and teens looking to storefronts to see what the trends are.They're looking online ...

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's actions with Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet signal caution amid elevated stock market valuations [1][2] - The company has significantly increased its cash position while halting share buybacks, indicating a more conservative approach [3][5] Group 1: Cash Position and Share Buybacks - Berkshire Hathaway's cash and equivalents reached $344 billion, surpassing the market capitalizations of all but 27 publicly traded companies [3] - Buffett has reduced his stock holdings, including a decrease in his position in Apple to $267 billion, suggesting more capital is sidelined than invested [4] - Share repurchases have been completely halted in Q2 2025, contrasting with previous years when billions were spent on buybacks [5] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio for Berkshire Hathaway has risen to a 10-year high of nearly 1.8, indicating that Buffett does not see the stock as a bargain [6] - The S&P 500 index currently trades at a P/E ratio of 30, significantly above its long-term average, with high-growth stocks like Nvidia at 59 and Walmart at 42 [8] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Buffett's historical pattern shows he increases cash positions and exits stocks when valuations are overheated, as seen in past market cycles [8] - The current market environment makes it challenging for Buffett to find bargain stocks, leading him to prefer cash equivalents for guaranteed interest income [9] - Investors are advised to consider Buffett's cautious approach, especially older investors who may be drawing down funds for retirement [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's second-quarter earnings report highlighted concerns regarding tariffs, indicating potential adverse effects on the economy and the company's operations [2][3][10]. Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported strong operating results for Q2, but investors were disappointed by the lack of stock repurchases [2]. - The company has a diverse portfolio, including nearly $300 billion in equities, significant insurance and energy assets, and a major railroad, providing strong visibility into the broader economy [11]. Tariff Concerns - The report specifically mentioned President Trump's tariffs, with Buffett previously describing tariffs as "an act of war" and a tax on goods [3][6]. - Current tariff rates are significant, with imports facing rates of 15% to 40%, which could impact inflation and business operations [7][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding changing tariff rates is causing businesses to pause hiring and capital expenditures, potentially leading to adverse consequences for Berkshire's operations [8][9]. Economic Implications - While inflation has not surged overall, it is beginning to appear in sectors affected by tariffs, such as apparel and appliances [13]. - There are concerns that prolonged uncertainty from tariffs could stall economic growth and lead to disinflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to manage interest rates [14]. - The market has been able to absorb tariff news so far, but increasing data may force a reevaluation of the situation [15].

Count D, what's your final trade. >> Taiwan semi. Look, year to date ending July up 36%. They just reported today July year-over-year up 26%.I know it was up 5% yesterday. Should be up 5% every day. Scott.>> All right. Thank you, Weiss for not taking all the time. Kevin Simpson, >> TJ Maxx, we talked about retail was earlier.Their off-pric model thrives with the value seeking consumer. >> Wind resort sees demand good in the fourth quarter in 2026. Five price targets today alone.>> The consumer. Wow, how ins ...

The Container Store is working with Berkeley Research Group as the retail store wrestles with flagging earnings, according to people familiar with the situation https://t.co/yTUkHtOkul ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japanese Equities - **Key Themes**: The presentation discusses macroeconomic and microeconomic forces driving Japanese equities, including nominal growth, U.S. tariffs, political changes, corporate governance reforms, and industrial competitiveness in a multipolar world [1][5][6]. Core Insights 1. **Strong Nominal GDP Growth**: - Japan's nominal GDP is projected to grow significantly, with forecasts indicating a rise from 480 trillion yen in 1995 to 3,400 trillion yen by 2027 [9]. - Morgan Stanley's TOPIX forecast is set at 2,900 points as of June 2026, with a base case EPS growth of 185 million yen for December 2025 [10][12]. 2. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs**: - The U.S. tariffs and investment packages are influencing Japanese stocks, with a focus on the cumulative excess return on TOPIX for stocks sensitive to tariffs [27][30]. - Stock price gains post-U.S.-Japan tariff agreements have shown weak performance support, indicating potential volatility in the market [30][35]. 3. **Political Landscape Changes**: - The focus of uncertainty is shifting from external pressures, such as tariffs, to internal political dynamics, including public opinion on leadership and fiscal policies [47][51]. - The government fiscal balance is improving, which may influence future investment strategies [54]. 4. **Corporate Governance Reforms**: - Ongoing reforms are expected to enhance shareholder returns and capital efficiency, contributing positively to the market outlook [7][20]. 5. **Sector Preferences**: - A barbell strategy is recommended, focusing on export-oriented manufacturing and domestic demand-oriented non-manufacturing sectors [20]. - Specific sectors such as pharmaceuticals, IT services, and construction materials are highlighted for their growth potential [20][22]. Additional Important Insights - **Focus List Performance**: The focus list of stocks reflects a cautious view on large external demand stocks while being bullish on domestic demand growth stocks [22][23]. - **Market Dynamics**: The analysis includes cumulative fund flows, indicating a trend of net purchases in cash equities by overseas investors, suggesting a positive sentiment towards Japanese equities [42][46]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Upcoming government spending on infrastructure is anticipated, which may further stimulate economic growth and investment opportunities [61]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Japanese equity market.