Welcome to Stocks in Translation, Yahoo Finance's video podcast that cuts through the market mayhem, the noisy numbers, and the hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. I'm Jared Blicker, your host, and with me is Yahoo Finance senior reporter, Ali Canal, who's here to connect the dots and to be that bridge between Wall Street and Main Street. And today, we've got a former pit trader as our featured guest who's sharp with market technicals.and we're going to ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, particularly the industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales sectors, as well as GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: China's Q3 GDP growth moderated to 4.8% year-on-year (yoy) from 5.2% in Q2, slightly above market consensus of 4.7% but in line with forecasts. Sequentially, GDP growth showed a slight acceleration to 1.1% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) non-annualized in Q3 from 1.0% in Q2 [1][10][20]. 2. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production (IP) growth rose significantly to 6.5% yoy in September, exceeding expectations, driven by stronger exports and increased auto output. Sequentially, IP gained 1.4% month-over-month (mom) non-annualized in September [3][13][20]. 3. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: FAI growth remained depressed at -0.5% year-to-date (ytd) yoy in September, with a notable single-month decline of -6.7% yoy. This was attributed to ongoing "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged downturn in the property sector [8][14][20]. 4. **Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% yoy in September from 3.4% in August, impacted by weaker offline sales and the fading effectiveness of the consumer goods trade-in program. Online sales showed slight improvement [9][15][20]. 5. **Services Sector**: The Services Industry Output Index remained stable at 5.6% yoy in September, indicating resilience in the services sector despite challenges in retail sales [16][20]. 6. **Property Market**: The property market continued to show weakness, with significant year-on-year declines in new home starts (-14.4%) and property sales (-10.5% in volume) [11][18][20]. 7. **Unemployment Rates**: The nationwide unemployment rate decreased slightly to 5.2% in September from 5.3% in August, although youth unemployment remains a concern at 18.9% for the 16-24 age group [19][20]. Adjustments to Economic Forecasts - Full-year real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 4.9% and 4.3%, respectively, reflecting adjustments based on Q3 GDP outcomes and historical data revisions. The growth target of "around 5%" for the year remains on track despite US-China tensions [1][20][37]. Additional Important Insights - The effectiveness of existing easing measures is diminishing, necessitating targeted easing to ensure stable growth and employment in the coming quarters [20]. - The majority of recent easing measures' growth impulses are expected to materialize in late 2025 or early 2026 [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its outlook.

Core Insights - The meeting between Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and former U.S. President Donald Trump focused on critical minerals and reaffirmed the AUKUS partnership, resulting in a new critical minerals deal valued at up to US$8.5 billion [3]. Market Reactions - Following the meeting, the ASX saw a positive shift, climbing +0.5% in futures, while Wall Street indices (Dow, S&P, Nasdaq) experienced gains between +1% and +1.4% [4]. Companies to Watch - Arafura Rare Earths (ASX:ARU) and Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) are highlighted as key companies to monitor due to their involvement in the Trump-Albo rare earths deal [5]. - Other notable companies in the rare earths sector include Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU), Meeka Metals (ASX:MEK), and Caprice Resources (ASX:CRS) [5]. Additional Developments - Yari Minerals (ASX:YAR) has commenced its first drilling at the Rolleston South Coal Project [6]. - Super Retail (ASX:SUL) appointed Paul Bradshaw as the new managing director for BCF, marking a significant leadership change [6]. Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at 65.1 U.S. cents, while iron ore prices have slightly decreased by -0.1% to $103.80 per tonne [7]. - Brent crude oil is down -0.7% at $60.93 per barrel, and gold prices have increased to $4,366 per ounce [7].

Core Insights - Adobe Analytics predicts a 5.3% increase in online sales during the holiday season from November 1 to December 31, which is 3.4% lower than the previous year and below the 12.75% average from 2017 to 2024, influenced by a 32.1% increase during the pandemic in 2020 [1][2] Economic Context - Lower interest rates may support holiday sales by facilitating financing for big-ticket items, but systematic risks such as tariffs and high inflation could pose challenges [2] - Consumers are currently facing economic pressures, yet holiday sales may alleviate some macroeconomic stress [2][3] - Real personal consumption expenditures in the U.S. rose 1.6% on an annualized basis between the first and second quarters, with consumer spending expected to remain strong through the year before declining in 2026 [4] Investment Opportunities - If Adobe's forecasts hold true, traders may consider the Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X ETF (RETL), which offers 3x exposure to the S&P Retail Select Industry Index [5] - For broader exposure to increased consumer spending, the Direxion Daily Consumer Discretionary Bull 3X ETF (WANT) provides 300% performance exposure to the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index, covering various industries including retail, media, and leisure [6]

Market Overview - US stocks are starting the week positively, with the Dow up approximately 280 points, driven by anticipation of upcoming earnings reports and a lack of negative news on the trade front [2][3] - The S&P 500 is up about 0.75%, while the NASDAQ is leading with a gain of around 1% [3][4] - Low bond yields are noted, with current yields at 3.99% [5] Crypto Market - Bitcoin has rebounded by approximately 2.8% after a recent sell-off that brought its price to the lowest since June [9] - Institutional adoption and regulatory approval are seen as potential catalysts for future growth in the crypto market [10][12] - The volatility in the crypto market is attributed to high leverage in offshore futures trading, which represents a significant portion of trading volume despite being a small fraction of total Bitcoin value [12][13][19] Apple iPhone Sales - Apple's iPhone 17 series has outperformed the iPhone 16 series by 14% in sales during the first 10 days of availability in the US and China [46] - The new product portfolio includes a low-cost model and innovative features, appealing to a broader range of consumers [48][50] - The strong replacement cycle for smartphones is contributing to Apple's sales success, with consumers upgrading their devices approximately every 3 to 3.5 years [50][51] Infrastructure Investment - Private investments in infrastructure have surged, reaching $500 billion in 2024, with projections to grow to $2 trillion by 2030 [32] - The demand for capital in infrastructure is driven by various sectors, including energy transition and digital infrastructure, particularly data centers [37][38] - The need for public policy and regulation is emphasized as essential for the growth of the infrastructure asset class [38][40] Utility Sector Dynamics - Electricity demand growth in the US has been largely driven by data centers, accounting for over 90% of the increase in demand [108][109] - Rising electricity prices have led to public pushback against data center construction, which may influence future utility agreements [110][111] - Integrated utility providers are seen as more favorable investments due to their ability to manage supply and demand effectively [113]

Market Overview - The stock market has shown a sense of calm after recent volatility, with all three major indices starting the week positively, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both up about 0.5% [1][2] - The S&P 500 is approaching record highs seen earlier in October, indicating strong market momentum [1][2] - The government shutdown has reached day 20, marking it as the third longest in U.S. history, yet it has not significantly impacted market performance so far [1] Company Performance - Amazon's stock is slightly up despite an outage in its AWS service, which affected several companies, indicating investor resilience [1][2] - Apple has seen a positive shift in stock performance, gaining 6% in the past month due to strong demand for the iPhone 17, with analysts projecting a significant upgrade cycle [1][2] - Amazon's year-to-date performance is down 3%, making it the worst performer among the MAG 7 stocks, while Apple is gaining traction [1][2] Consumer Trends - The consumer staples sector is under scrutiny as earnings estimates decline, with Coca-Cola expected to report strong demand in the U.S. but weakness in other regions [2][3] - There is a bifurcation in consumer spending, with high-end consumers willing to pay more for premium products, while low-end consumers focus on essentials [2][3] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has rebounded, rising above $110,000, alongside a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, indicating renewed investor confidence [1][2] - Ethereum has crossed the $4,000 threshold, suggesting a positive trend in the crypto space [1][2] Sector Rotation - A rotation into defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples is observed, which may indicate a cautious market sentiment [2][3] - Utilities have performed well, up 21% year-to-date, and are seen as a growth sector benefiting from lower interest rates and the AI trade [2][3] International Market Insights - There is a growing interest in international markets, with South Korea up nearly 50% this year and China showing a 14-16% increase, suggesting potential value outside the U.S. [2][3] - The focus on international value trades is becoming more prominent as investors seek diversification [2][3]

Core Insights - The article discusses five hedge fund-favored stocks that have outperformed the S&P 500 Total Return Index, which rose 15.3%, with the selected stocks rising 23.6% over the past year [3]. Group 1: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - TSMC is a leading semiconductor manufacturer, with a net profit margin of 42%, and is utilized by nearly all major semiconductor companies except Intel [4]. - The stock is currently priced at 30 times recent earnings and 26 times the expected earnings for 2026, indicating it is not overly expensive despite geopolitical risks [5]. Group 2: Berkshire Hathaway - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has a low debt-to-equity ratio of 19%, positioning it well to acquire distressed companies during economic downturns [7]. - The company continues to attract hedge fund investments despite Buffett's impending retirement [6]. Group 3: Walmart - Walmart is expected to perform well during economic downturns due to its low-price strategy, which helps retain existing customers and attract new ones [9]. - The stock is currently valued at $107, with a recommendation to buy if it falls below $100 and to purchase enthusiastically at $90 [10]. Group 4: JPMorgan Chase - JPMorgan Chase has maintained a return on assets of 1.00% or more in six of the past seven years, indicating strong financial health [11]. - A potential scenario where the Federal Reserve cuts short-term interest rates while long-term rates remain stable could benefit JPMorgan [12]. Group 5: Caterpillar - Caterpillar is benefiting from a weak dollar, which enhances its export capabilities, as over half of its sales come from outside the U.S. [13]. - The company faces challenges from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, but the positive effects of the weak dollar are expected to outweigh these challenges [13]. Group 6: Performance of Previous Recommendations - The previous year's hedge fund favorites included H&E Equipment Services, which saw a 68% gain after being acquired, and Customers Bancorp, which returned 29% [14]. - D.R. Horton experienced a 14% loss, while Loews Corp and Toyota Motor Corp achieved returns of 22% and 13%, respectively [14].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley identifies Pinterest as a stock pick due to strong earnings revisions, indicating a favorable environment for stock selection amid rising stock-specific risks [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Selection Environment - Stock-specific risks have increased recently, creating a historically opportunistic environment for stock picking [1]. - Analysts' opinions on company earnings prospects are becoming more varied, contributing to a dispersion of earnings revision breadth [2]. Group 2: Earnings Revisions and Stock Performance - Research indicates that positive earnings revisions can lead to stock gains, with companies that exceed earnings expectations consistently outperforming those that fall short [3]. - Morgan Stanley's stock screen focuses on companies with strong earnings revision momentum, highlighting Pinterest, Reddit, Take-Two Interactive, Burlington Stores, and Carvana as top picks [4]. Group 3: Sector Updates - In the restaurant sector, pricing is restrained while promotional activity is high; the gaming and leisure sector, particularly cruises, is experiencing healthy demand [6]. - Analysts expect improvements in freight-related companies over the next six months [6]. - The technology sector shows continued strength in AI, with challenges in traditional storage and server capacities; within internet companies, agentic AI is gaining traction in e-commerce [6]. - In consumer finance, there is ongoing degradation at the low end of the market, but this trend is not spreading [6].

Banking Sector - Following the discovery of bad loans, Wall Street is scrutinizing the banking sector for additional risks, leading to a selloff in regional banks [1][5] - Zions Bank, a regional bank, lost $1 billion in valuation in one trading session, ending the week down more than 5% [5] - The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) also declined nearly 2% amid lending concerns reminiscent of the 2023 regional banking crisis [5] Technology Sector - A major outage at Amazon Web Services affected several prominent websites, including Disney+, Snapchat, and Venmo, causing significant disruptions for users [2] - The outage also impacted airline customers, with Delta and United passengers unable to check in or access reservation information [2] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector has faced inflationary pressures and supply chain issues, but has performed better than expected [7][8] - Concerns are growing regarding the health of consumers and suppliers, with major automakers like Ford, General Motors, and Tesla set to report earnings soon [8] Retail Sector - Young consumers are increasingly interested in vintage-style goods, with trading card sales surging nearly 70% year-to-date at retailers like Target, projected to exceed $1 billion in annual revenue [10][11] - Gildan's Comfort Colors brand is gaining popularity among Gen Z, with a growth rate of around 40% last year, driven by retro colors and soft fabric [12]

Market Performance - Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended higher on October 20, 2025, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains, driven by buying in blue-chip Reliance Industries and sustained foreign fund inflows [1][5] - The 30-share BSE Sensex increased by 411.18 points or 0.49% to settle at 84,363.37, with an intraday high of 84,656.56, a jump of 704.37 points or 0.83% [1] - The 50-share NSE Nifty surged by 133.30 points or 0.52% to reach 25,843.15 [1] Company Performance - Reliance Industries saw a rise of 3.52% after reporting a 9.6% year-on-year increase in net profit for the September quarter, attributed to strong performance in its retail and telecom sectors, along with a recovery in its oil-to-chemicals segment [2] - Other gainers included Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan, and Bharti Airtel [2] Foreign and Domestic Investment - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth ₹308.98 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought stocks worth ₹1,526.61 crore on the same day [4] Global Market Influence - A sharp rally in global markets contributed to the optimism in the Indian markets, with Asian markets such as South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225, Shanghai's SSE Composite, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng all closing higher [3] - European markets were also trading positively, and U.S. markets ended in positive territory on the preceding Friday [3] Upcoming Events - The Indian market is expected to continue its upward trend with a special Muhurat trading session scheduled for Tuesday, which will be held between 1:45 p.m. and 2:45 p.m. [6]