策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.02 节后融资资金显著回流 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 投资者微观行为洞察手册·2 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 本期市场成交热度上升，赚钱效应边际上升。从资金层面看，外资资金大幅流入， 偏股公募基金新发行边际下降，ETF 资金大幅流出，外资流入 A 股和港股。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 策 略 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 观 察 证 券 [Table_Summary] 市场定价状态：市场成交 ...

◉ 外部：美元信用基础松动 美联储2025年累计降息75个基点，美元指数跌至95-100区间弱势震荡。近期美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查，美联储独立性受到冲击， 美元进一步承压。美元偏弱，自然带动包括人民币在内的非美货币升值。 ◉ 内部：万亿顺差+结汇潮形成正反馈 节后开工，除了A股迎来"开门红"，汇市也传来大消息。2月25日，在岸、离岸人民币双双升破6.87关口，创下2023年4月以来，也就是近34个月的新 高。进入2月以来，人民币兑美元从6.96附近持续走高，累计升值幅度接近1.3%。（数据来源：Wind，截至2026.02.25。） 不少投资者在问：人民币为什么持续走强？这波升值对咱们的钱袋子意味着什么？中国资产是不是该"高看一手"了？今天我就来聊聊这个话题。 一、人民币为何走强？ 本轮人民币升值不是单一因素驱动，而是内外因素共同作用的结果。结合市场上的观点，我总结了三点原因： 负债效应：摩托车、汽零、工程机械、光伏设备等美元有息债务占比高的行业，迎来债务减负和汇兑收益，直接增厚企业当期盈利。 成本效应：电子化学品、种业、冶钢原料等进口依赖度高、出口依赖度低的行业，人民币购买力提升让进口原材料 ...

编辑：[微风] 假期结束后，离岸人民币汇率继续走强，1美元兑离岸人民币升至6.8附近，近10个月累计上涨超过5600 个基点，升值势头明显。 可能很多人会觉得，这就是一次偶然的汇率波动，就像市场里偶尔出现的小起伏，过几天就会恢复常 态，但只要把视线往回拉一点，仔细看看过去10个月的走势就会发现，这绝对不是心血来潮的偶然，而 是一场蓄谋已久的走势。 在过去的10个月里，人民币没有出现大起大落的剧烈波动，而是在悄无声息中稳步攀升，一点一滴积累 起来，整整涨了5600个基点，这个数字背后，是无数资金的暗流涌动，是市场力量的默默推动。 而就在人民币不断走强的同时，美元指数却一直处于横盘震荡的状态，没有丝毫下跌退让的迹象，也没 有上涨发力的趋势，就那样僵在原地。 这就意味着，人民币的走强，不是因为对手盘（美元）的拉垮，不是靠别人的弱势衬托出来的"惨胜"， 而是完全脱离了全球外汇市场的整体风向，走出了属于自己的独立行情。看到这里，或许有人会疑惑， 这些支撑人民币走强的资金到底来自哪里？它们又在朝着什么方向流动？ 都说数据是最不会说谎的，在刚过去的2025年12月，银行结售汇顺差直接冲到了逼近1000亿美元的高 位，这个数 ...

Market Pricing Status: Trading Activity Slightly Decreased, Profitability Increased - The trading turnover rate has decreased, with the average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market dropping to 2.1 trillion yuan, and the average number of daily limit-up stocks decreasing to 60.8 [8][12] - The proportion of stocks that increased in value rose to 47.6%, while the median weekly return for A-share stocks increased to -0.1% [12][15] - The trading concentration in both primary and secondary industries has declined, with six industries having turnover rates in the historical top 90% [12][19] A-Share Liquidity Tracking: Foreign Capital Slightly Inflows, ETF Capital Slightly Outflows - Foreign capital inflow amounted to approximately 3.67 million USD, with the northbound trading volume accounting for 34.6% of total trading [29][46] - The new issuance scale of equity funds increased to 43.63 billion yuan, indicating a rise in overall stock positions of public funds [29][31] - ETF funds experienced a net outflow of 44.18 billion yuan, with the proportion of passive trading decreasing to 6.6% [29][25] A-Share Industry Allocation Tracking: Divergence in Movements of Foreign Capital, ETF Capital, and Financing Capital - Foreign capital saw net inflows in the non-ferrous metals (+39.1 million USD) and banking (+21.4 million USD) sectors [29][43] - Financing capital showed net inflows in the media (+2.88 billion yuan) and environmental protection (+0.24 billion yuan) sectors, while there were significant outflows in power equipment (-6.5 billion yuan) and non-bank financials (-4.56 billion yuan) [29][19] - The ETF sector experienced widespread outflows, particularly in electronics (-11.47 billion yuan) and power equipment (-4.94 billion yuan) [29][19] Hong Kong Stock and Global Liquidity Tracking: Slowing Inflows from Southbound Funds, Marginal Inflows of Global Foreign Capital into Developed Markets - Southbound fund inflows decreased to 27.8 billion yuan, representing the 76th percentile since 2022 [29][4] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.6%, while global markets showed mixed performance, with South Korea leading with a 5.5% increase [29][4] - Global foreign capital saw marginal inflows into developed markets, particularly in the US (+8.13 billion USD), Japan (+3.9 billion USD), and the UK (+2.11 billion USD) [29][4]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the USD has surged, breaking the key level of 6.89 and reaching a nearly three-year high, marking a strong start to the year with over 1% appreciation since the beginning of 2026, reflecting robust economic fundamentals and market dynamics [1][7]. External Factors - The primary external driver for the RMB's appreciation is the weakening of the USD, influenced by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a decline in the USD index and created upward pressure on non-USD currencies like the RMB [3]. - The US economic data has underperformed, prompting market expectations for a shift to a rate-cutting cycle, thereby diminishing the USD's strength and allowing for greater appreciation potential for the RMB [3]. Internal Support - China's strong economic resilience and impressive foreign trade performance have provided solid support for the RMB's appreciation, with the country's goods trade surplus surpassing $1 trillion in 2025, driven by exports in sectors like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries [3]. - The peak period for foreign trade enterprises to settle accounts before the Spring Festival has led to increased demand for RMB, as companies convert USD for year-end bonuses and wages, further boosting the RMB's value [3]. Foreign Investment - Continuous inflow of foreign capital into China has also contributed to the RMB's rise, as the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets increases with the steady recovery of the Chinese economy [4]. - Improved Sino-US trade relations and a favorable external environment have bolstered market confidence in the Chinese economy, encouraging international investors to hold RMB assets [4]. Central Bank Policy - The People's Bank of China's prudent regulation has been crucial in maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate, allowing for a reasonable appreciation without excessive intervention, thus ensuring a healthy market-driven rise [6]. - The current appreciation of the RMB is seen as a rational increase supported by economic fundamentals and market supply-demand dynamics [6]. Impact on Consumers and Businesses - The appreciation of the RMB benefits consumers by making overseas purchases cheaper, thus enhancing the purchasing power for travel, education, and imported goods [6]. - While export-oriented businesses may face challenges due to a stronger RMB, the government is expected to implement policies to support these firms in maintaining their market positions [7]. - Overall, the RMB's rise is viewed as a positive signal for both the economy and consumer confidence, indicating a robust outlook for the future [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the projected trends of the RMB against the USD, indicating a weak start in 2025 followed by a strengthening phase, with expectations of surpassing the 7.0 mark by year-end and continuing strong into early 2026. Key drivers include a weakening USD, strong economic fundamentals in China, policy guidance, and corporate behaviors [1][3]. Summary by Sections RMB to USD Exchange Rate Trends for 2025 and Early 2026 - The RMB is expected to experience three phases in 2025: a pressure period from January to April, a rebound from April to July, and a strengthening phase from July to December. The onshore RMB fell to 7.35 and the offshore RMB dropped below 7.4 during the pressure period. The rebound saw the RMB rise to 7.16 due to easing trade tensions and a 9% drop in the USD index. By year-end, the RMB surpassed the 7.0 mark, with early 2026 seeing both onshore and offshore RMB break 6.9, marking a new high since April 2023. The RMB appreciated approximately 4% against the USD over the year, while it depreciated 3.5% against a basket of currencies [2][3][5]. Key Factors Driving RMB Strength Against USD - The weakening of the USD is a primary factor, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times in late 2025, totaling 75 basis points, leading to a 9.7% decline in the USD index. China's economic fundamentals remain robust, with a record trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025, driving corporate demand for currency exchange. Additionally, foreign capital inflow into A-shares exceeded 150 billion yuan. Policy measures from the central bank, including adjustments to the midpoint rate, have also supported the RMB's appreciation. Corporate behaviors, such as increased willingness to exchange currency due to RMB appreciation, have created a positive feedback loop [4][5]. Future Outlook for RMB to USD Exchange Rate - In the short term, a moderate appreciation of the RMB is anticipated, with many institutions predicting it could reach 6.8 in 2026. Supporting factors include the continuation of the Fed's rate cuts and strong performance in China's economy, particularly in technology and exports. However, potential risks include a rebound in US inflation, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and pressures on Chinese exports. Despite these challenges, the actual effective exchange rate remains low, which may mitigate some impacts. In the long term, a dual-directional fluctuation is expected, with the central bank aiming to maintain a stable exchange rate at a reasonable level. Companies are advised to focus on their core businesses and utilize hedging tools to manage risks [6][7][8].

最近，人民币汇率闹得挺大的动静，尤其是离岸市场那边，美元兑人民币直接冲破了6.90关口，这事儿 在2026年2月10日亚洲交易时段就发生了。 离岸人民币兑美元最高升到6.9060，在岸也破了6.92关口，最高到6.9112。中间价那天上调了65点，报 6.9458。 美元指数两连跌，掉到一周低位，这给人民币提供了上行空间。之前隔夜离岸人民币就破了6.92，是近 三年来的头一次。 人民币这波走强不是单方面的事儿，内外部因素都推了一把。 外资涌入是另一个大亮点。市场数据显示，北向资金通道持续净流入，A股优质个股走势稳健。债券市 场外资持仓也在增加，国债收益率小幅下行。 外资机构通过香港渠道买入人民币债券，资金从欧美账户划入，单日流入超千亿元。人民币国际化步伐 快了，在国际结算中的份额扩大，这让市场预期更稳定。 机构分析说，随着季节性结汇需求上升，出口企业春节前集中换汇，也推高了买盘。美元走弱，非美货 币集体上扬，这些都叠加起来，让人民币阶段性强势明显。 上周CFETS人民币汇率指数涨1.35，BIS货币篮子指数涨1.38，SDR篮子指数涨0.92。 不过，人民币会不会真开启"狂飙"模式，还得看后续。专家提醒，虽然 ...

Core Insights - In January, foreign investors injected $99 billion into emerging markets, setting a record for monthly inflows and marking the largest single-month net inflow since 2020 [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - The inflow included $71.4 billion into debt securities, the highest recorded amount [1] - Equity inflows reached $27.4 billion, ranking fifth in the data tracked by IIF since 2005 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.61, up 0.49 (+0.50%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9411, down 0.011 (-0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.01%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.40%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, unchanged (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, unchanged (+0.00%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the trends and proportions related to the treasury futures market, including the closing prices, price changes, precipitation of funds, positions, and net positions of various treasury futures varieties [13][14][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local government bond issuance, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, and the yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [24][27][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows the trends of inter - period spreads of various treasury futures varieties and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads through multiple charts [34][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures The report offers charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate declines, the prices of treasury futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Core Insights - The US and India have reached a trade agreement, significantly reducing tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, which has positively impacted Indian financial markets [1][2][3] - The Nifty 50 index surged nearly 5%, approaching its historical high from January, while the Indian rupee appreciated over 1% against the US dollar [1][2][3] - The agreement is expected to alleviate long-standing negative factors affecting the Indian market, potentially leading to a resurgence of foreign investment [2][3][4] Market Reactions - The Nifty 50 index's increase positions it for its best single-day performance in five years, and the rupee is on track for its largest single-day gain since November 2022 [1][3] - Following the announcement, foreign investors, who had been net sellers, may adjust their asset allocation towards Indian markets [2][4] Economic Context - The trade agreement follows a period of adverse effects on the Indian market due to increased tariffs imposed by the US in late August, which led to significant foreign capital outflows [3]