国际资本对中国资产的态度正在发生重大转变。 据高盛最新发布的数据，对冲基金以7周来最快速度净买入中国股票，既有多头买入也有空头回补。另 据野村证券的报告，新兴市场基金机构在7月份对印度股市的持仓配置权重大幅下降，而对中国内地和 中国香港的配置权重则大幅增加。 从市场表现来看，8月22日，中国资产全线爆发，沪指涨1.45%，站上3800点，再创10年新高；科创50 指数更是暴涨超8%；恒生科技指数大涨2.7%；美股市场的中国资产亦集体大涨。 展望后市，多家外资机构认为，赚钱效应正在吸引场外资金入市，中国股市还将迎来更强劲的资金流 入，本轮上涨的动力仍然较强，且中国股票的估值仍具备较高的吸引力。 外资爆买 当地时间8月22日，高盛最新发布的报告显示，根据机构经纪数据，对冲基金以7周来最快速度净买入中 国股票，既有多头买入也有空头回补。 与此同时，美股市场的中国资产亦全线大涨，截至美东时间周五收盘，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨 2.73%，两倍做多沪深300ETF、三倍做多富时中国ETF均暴涨6.5%，中国科技ETF、两倍做多中国互联 网股票ETF大涨超5%。 中国资产的持续上涨正在吸引更多外资进场。 野村证券最新发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The attitude of international capital towards Chinese assets is undergoing a significant shift, with increased foreign investment and optimism about the Chinese market's future performance [1][8]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Hedge funds have rapidly increased their net purchases of Chinese stocks, marking the highest net buying volume globally in August, with 90% of hedge funds holding long positions in Chinese stocks [2][3]. - Emerging market funds have significantly reduced their holdings in the Indian stock market while increasing their allocations to Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets [4][5]. - In June, foreign institutional investors saw a net inflow of $1.2 billion into the Chinese stock market, which further increased to $2.7 billion in July [6]. Group 2: Market Performance - On August 22, Chinese assets experienced a substantial rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to surpass 3,800 points, reaching a 10-year high, and the STAR Market 50 Index soaring over 8% [2][3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index also saw a significant increase of 2.71%, reflecting strong performance across various Chinese asset classes [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the influx of foreign capital into the Chinese market will continue, driven by the attractive valuation of Chinese stocks and the potential for significant liquidity from domestic investors [8][9]. - The Bank of America survey indicates a rising optimism among fund managers regarding China's economic growth, marking the highest level of confidence since March 2025 [8]. - The potential for over 10 trillion RMB in additional capital inflow exists, as only 22% of household financial assets are currently allocated to funds and stocks [8].

今年以来，海外资金对中国股市的兴趣明显提升。高盛数据显示，7月全球主动型基金对中国股市的配 置比例升至6.4%。同时，被动型资金加速流入，截至7月底，外资被动型基金今年以来累计净流入已达 110亿美元。 外资机构认为，流动性改善、美元走弱以及居民储蓄充裕等因素共同推动中国股市活跃度提升，成长板 块和高质量科技股成为外资关注重点。 行业龙头吸引外资涌入 韩国证券存托结算院（KSD）旗下SEIBro的数据显示，截至8月19日，韩国股民对中国股票的总持仓量 达33.86亿美元，相比2024年底的总持仓量增长近三成。截至8月19日，韩国股民买入较多的股票包括小 米集团-W、腾讯控股、比亚迪股份等。 韩国散户的加仓只是全球资金增持中国资产的一个缩影。来自高盛的数据显示，7月全球主动型共同基 金对中国股市的配置比例提升至6.4%，处于近十年13%分位水平，整体来看依旧低配330个基点，海外 资金仍有较大增配空间。 除主动型基金外，被动型基金配置力度也显著增强。摩根士丹利中国首席股票策略师王滢及其团队的最 新统计数据显示，截至7月31日，今年以来外资被动型基金累计流入中国股市的资金已达110亿美元，远 超2024年全年的7 ...

Group 1 - The majority of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise the key interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year, with the proportion of such predictions increasing from over half to nearly two-thirds in recent weeks [1] - Despite recent weak employment data in the US reviving expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, 70% of analysts believe this will not delay the Bank of Japan's moderate tightening monetary policy [1] - In a survey conducted from August 12 to 19, 67 out of 73 economists (92%) expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the current interest rate at its September meeting, while 63% of 71 respondents anticipate a rate hike of at least 25 basis points to 0.75% in the next quarter [1] Group 2 - In the week of August 16, Japan's stock market experienced the largest foreign capital inflow in nearly four months, driven by expectations of a US rate cut and strong domestic economic growth data [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported that foreign investors purchased approximately 1.16 trillion yen (about 78.7 billion USD) worth of Japanese stocks in the last week, marking the largest single-week buying volume since April 5 [3]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but closed higher, reaching a new high, while the Shenzhen Component and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index also hit annual highs [1] - The total trading volume of the two markets reached 2.41 trillion yuan, exceeding 2 trillion yuan for six consecutive trading days [1] AI and Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry chain saw significant gains, with Cambrian Technology rising over 8% and stabilizing above the 1,000 yuan mark [1] - The Sci-Tech AI ETF (588730) surged by 4.29%, while the AI ETF (159819) increased by 2.66% [1] Fund Inflows and Leverage - The AI-themed ETFs are attracting substantial capital, with the AI ETF (159819) attracting 280 million yuan in a single day and a total net inflow of 4.959 billion yuan year-to-date, making it the largest in its category at 17.338 billion yuan [3] - The total margin financing balance increased by 395 million yuan on August 18, marking the largest single-day increase since October 8, 2024, and surpassed 2.1 trillion yuan for the first time in 10 years [3][4] Stock Performance and Leverage Buying - The top net purchases of leveraged funds in the second half of the year included New Yisheng with over 5 billion yuan and a 102% increase in stock price, and Northern Rare Earth with over 3.6 billion yuan and a 78% increase [4][6] - Other companies with significant net purchases exceeding 2 billion yuan included WuXi AppTec, Shenghong Technology, and Dongfeng Motor [4][6] Insurance and Foreign Investment - Insurance funds have been actively buying H-shares, with Ping An Life investing approximately 465 million HKD in Agricultural Bank of China and China Life [11] - As of the end of Q2, the balance of insurance funds was 36.23 trillion yuan, with stock investments increasing by 8.9% from the previous quarter [12] Foreign Capital Inflows - In July, the Chinese stock market saw a net inflow of over 6 billion USD, with hedge funds rapidly buying Chinese stocks since the end of June [14][15] - Goldman Sachs noted that the buying was primarily driven by long positions, with China being the market with the highest net purchases in August [16]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Neutral (Oscillation) [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bearish in the short term, neutral (oscillation) in the long term [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The recent rise in the stock market is mainly due to three logics. Long - term: The market anticipates fiscal policy to shift more towards promoting consumption and an increase in the domestic inflation level after the easing of Sino - US relations. Medium - term: The anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors. Short - term: The capital market has relatively abundant liquidity, with funds flowing in due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit and loan data [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the recovery of risk appetite. However, there are no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, and the bond market lacks directional drivers. It should be treated with an oscillation mindset in the long term [2] 3. Summary by Section **Research Views** - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 19, the A - share market fluctuated with increased trading volume. The Wind All - A index fell by 0.05% with a trading volume of 2.64 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose by 0.07%, while the CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices fell by 0.19%, 0.93%, and 0.38% respectively. Personal consumption loan subsidy policies and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are expected to boost the economy. The central bank may purchase national debt to support more inclusive fiscal policies [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 19, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts rose by 0.26%, 0.06%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 increased [2] **Daily Price Changes** - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 19, compared with August 18, IH fell by 1.16%, IF by 0.51%, IC by 0.12%, and IM by 0.10%. Among the stock indices, the SSE 50 fell by 0.93%, the CSI 300 by 0.38%, the CSI 500 by 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 rose by 0.07% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 19, compared with August 18, TS rose by 0.03%, TF by 0.08%, T by 0.04%, and TL by 0.39% [3] **Market News** - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among them, tax revenue was 1.10933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 249.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30 billion yuan of 91 - day book - entry discount treasury bonds on August 20 [4] **Chart Analysis** - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the historical trends, basis trends, and cross - period spread trends of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bonds [12][15][16] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB, euro - RMB exchange rates, forward exchange rates, and other exchange rate - related data [20][21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing increased trading activity, with rising margin balances and active retail investor participation, while foreign capital has turned to inflows, indicating a notable increase in incremental funds entering the market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trading Activity - The trading heat in the market has marginally increased, with the average daily trading volume in the A-share market rising to 2.1 trillion yuan, and the turnover rate for the Shanghai Composite Index reaching the 93rd percentile [3]. - The number of daily limit-up stocks has increased to 74.4, with the maximum consecutive limit-up stocks being 5, while the sealing rate slightly decreased to 71.2% [3]. - The proportion of stocks that rose has decreased to 54.4%, and the median weekly return for all A-share stocks has dropped to 0.4% [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows - The net inflow of foreign capital was 2.7 billion USD as of August 13, with the northbound trading volume accounting for 11.0% of total trading [4]. - Public funds saw a decrease in new issuance to 5.947 billion yuan, while overall stock positions increased [4]. - The net buy amount for margin trading was 45.7 billion yuan, with the trading volume proportion rising to 10.6% [4]. Group 3: Industry Allocation - There is a clear divergence in fund allocation, with foreign capital significantly flowing out of the metals sector while financing mainly flows into electronics and machinery [5]. - The electronics sector saw a net inflow of 13.27 billion yuan, while the coal sector experienced a net outflow of 0.23 billion yuan [5]. - The ETF market showed a significant outflow of passive funds, with a net outflow of 27.93 billion yuan, while the food and beverage sector saw a net inflow of 0.59 billion yuan [5]. Group 4: Hong Kong and Global Fund Flows - Southbound capital inflows increased to 38.12 billion yuan, reaching the 92nd percentile since 2022, with foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong market amounting to 370 million USD [6]. - Developed markets saw a net inflow of 6.85 billion USD, with the US and UK being the primary beneficiaries, while emerging markets experienced net outflows [6]. - Active foreign capital has returned to buy Chinese concept stocks for the first time since October 2024 [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of "preventive" interest rate cuts in September 2024, influenced by concerns over inflation due to tariffs, although the rate cuts may face temporary pauses [1][19] - Recent data shows that July's non-farm employment figures were weaker than expected, and the core inflation rate for July has shown a decline in prices for core goods heavily reliant on imports, indicating manageable inflation pressure [1][19] - The market anticipates a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, reflecting expectations of a shift in monetary policy [21] Group 2 - Historical analysis indicates that during previous rounds of preventive rate cuts, U.S. equity markets performed well, with a general recovery in market fundamentals [2][19] - The current global capital rebalancing is driven by a weakening U.S. economy and dollar, leading to a shift of funds towards non-U.S. assets, particularly those with stronger short-term economic prospects [6][26] - Assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies are expected to attract capital due to their status as safe-haven alternatives to the dollar [28][29] Group 3 - A-shares are positioned to attract foreign investment due to their strong performance since July, despite the absence of significant changes in domestic fundamentals [8][36] - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the U.S. following Fed rate cuts is likely to encourage capital inflows into China, providing additional monetary policy space [38][41] - The anticipated marginal changes in domestic fundamentals and policies in the second half of the year are expected to enhance foreign investor confidence in A-shares [41][42] Group 4 - Foreign investment preferences indicate a focus on local, competitive assets, with a tendency to favor industries that align with the current economic landscape [10][12] - Historical trends show that foreign investors favor core competitive industries and are willing to tolerate higher valuations, prioritizing stable and sustainable earnings [12][45] - The analysis of foreign investment in Taiwan's stock market reveals a preference for large-cap, high-ROE industry leaders, with a significant focus on the electronics sector [43][45]

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume and margin financing balance, both surpassing 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, marking a notable shift in market dynamics [1][3][12] - Historical analysis shows that the occurrence of dual "2 trillion" trading days is rare, with only seven instances recorded, primarily during the 2015 leverage bull market and now in 2025, indicating a transformation in market structure [2][3][6] Trading Volume and Margin Financing - On August 14, the A-share trading volume reached 2.3 trillion yuan, while the margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, recorded at 2.055 trillion yuan [1][3] - The dual "2 trillion" phenomenon has occurred only seven times in A-share history, with the latest instances on August 13 and 14, 2025, representing the first occurrences in nearly a decade [2][3][4] Market Dynamics and Funding Sources - The current market environment is characterized by a shift from high-leverage-driven dynamics to a more mature market driven by policy coordination and fundamental improvements [6][7] - Key supporting factors for the dual "2 trillion" phenomenon include a significant migration of household savings into the equity market, with a notable decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits [8][10] Future Liquidity and Investment Trends - Analysts predict a turning point for incremental capital entering the market, with a peak in household deposits and financial products maturing from late 2025 to 2026, potentially releasing substantial funds into the equity market [3][11] - The influx of foreign capital is also a critical factor, with global funds showing increased confidence in the Chinese market, as evidenced by significant net inflows into Chinese stocks and bonds [10][11] Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The increase in new A-share accounts, reaching 1.96 million in July 2025, reflects a growing investor enthusiasm driven by the market's positive performance [9][10] - The current market phase is transitioning from policy-driven expectations to a focus on earnings validation, with improving corporate performance expected to sustain market momentum [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed generally higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the stage high on October 8, 2024. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly for two consecutive days. The pricing stability has a restorative effect on corporate profits and investment confidence. The market's focus has shifted to the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. Some listed companies' improved fundamentals support the stock market, but be vigilant against the drag on index performance from the profit decline of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. A-shares with reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. The S&P's attitude towards China's sovereign credit rating also boosts market confidence. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) latest price is 4131.2, up 21.0; IF sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 4144.4, up 21.4. IH main contract (2509) latest price is 2809.6, up 17.0; IH sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 2809.8, up 17.4. IC main contract (2509) latest price is 6342.6, up 33.0; IC sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6409.2, up 33.0. IM main contract (2509) latest price is 6883.6, up 21.2; IM sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6954.2, up 21.2 [2] - IF-IH current month contract spread is 1334.6, up 7.0; IC-IF current month contract spread is 2264.8, up 12.6. IM-IC current month contract spread is 545.0, down 12.4; IC-IH current month contract spread is 3599.4, up 19.6. IM-IF current month contract spread is 2809.8, up 0.2; IM-IH current month contract spread is 4144.4, up 7.2 [2] - IF current quarter - current month is -42.4, down 1.6; IF next quarter - current month is -74.8, down 3.4. IH current quarter - current month is 1.6, down 1.0; IH next quarter - current month is 1.2, down 0.8. IC current quarter - current month is -219.2, up 4.4; IC next quarter - current month is -357.6, up 4.6. IM current quarter - current month is -260.0, up 1.8; IM next quarter - current month is -442.2, up 4.6 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is -26,597.00, up 1315.0; IH top 20 net position is -17,108.00, up 424.0. IC top 20 net position is -15,559.00, up 1313.0; IM top 20 net position is -52,263.00, down 494.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is 4143.83, up 21.3; IF main contract basis is -12.6, up 5.1. SSE 50 is 2807.01, up 17.1; IH main contract basis is 2.6, up 3.1. CSI 500 is 6418.16, up 26.4; IC main contract basis is -75.6, up 17.4. CSI 1000 A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 6963.61, up 19.7; IM main contract basis is +552.93, up 166.82. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 20,261.98, up 12.7 [2] - Northbound trading total (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 2270.00, up 261.04; Reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) is -1607.0, up 1146.0 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) is +76.53 yesterday, -376.99 today. MLF data not provided. Rising stock ratio (daily, %) is 38.45, down 38.81. Shibor (daily, %) is 1.315, unchanged [2] - IO at-the-money call option closing price (2508) is 15.00, up 3.00; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) is 10.14, down 1.31. IO at-the-money put option closing price (2508) is 22.80, down 19.60; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) is 10.14, down 1.31 [2] - CSI 300 index 20-day volatility (%) is 9.80, up 0.08; Volume PCR (%) is 57.21, up 1.86. Position PCR (%) is 76.85, up 1.74 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares score is 5.10, down 2.30; Technical aspect score is 3.80, down 3.90. Capital aspect score is 6.40, down 0.70 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, up 7.3%; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%, rising for two consecutive months [2] - In July, CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month from a 0.1% decline last month, and was flat year-on-year. Core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to last month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the same as last month [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Pending: China's July financial data. On August 12 at 20:30, the US July CPI and core CPI. On August 14 at 20:30, the US July PPI and core PPI. On August 15 at 10:00, China's July industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, and real estate data [3]