13 May 2025 | 5:53PM HKT China: Raising GDP forecasts on larger-than-expected tariff rollbacks Bottom line: We had assumed that the US-China trade talks in Geneva would reduce tariff rates on Chinese products from >100% to 50-60%. The joint announcement released on Monday (May 12) indicated larger-than-expected tariff rollbacks, with US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping to 30% for 90 days. Although the forward path of tariffs remains uncertain, we now expect Chinese real exports to be roughly flat in 2025/2 ...

12 May 2025 | 4:04PM EDT US Daily: Raising Our Growth Forecast and Lowering Our Recession Odds in the Wake of a US-China Trade Deal (Hatzius / Mericle / Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.co ...

12 May 2025 | 9:55AM HKT China: Exports resilient into early Q2; pushing back our policy easing assumptions Bottom line: Chinese exports surprised to the upside in April due to trade re-routing. Both the US and China said trade talks in Geneva on May 10-11 were "constructive". Although we still forecast a material export slowdown in coming months, it is happening more slowly than we initially anticipated. We recently adjusted our export volume growth forecast for 2025 to -5% from -10% previously. This reduc ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha May 6, 2025 07:13 PM GMT Global EM Strategist M Global Idea A New Phase in Flows EM fixed income investors are voting with their feet on the outlook for the USD, with flows returning to EM local market funds while hard currency sees continued outflows. Does a new era beckon? Key Takeaways Must reads from Global EM Strategy EM Fixed Income Strategy and Economics – IMF Spring Meetings Takeaways | 30-Apr-2025 We summarise our views from the IMF Spring Meetings, including highlig ...

来看最新消息。 据央视新闻报道，美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔表示，特朗普政府的关税政策可能会在今年导致美国经济增长放缓和通胀上升。 美国联邦储备委员会理事迈克尔·巴尔表示， 特朗普政府的关税政策可能会在今年晚些时候推高通胀、拉低经济增速并推高失业率。 迈克尔·巴尔认为，更高的关税可能会导致全球供应链中断，并对通胀造成持续的上行压力，企业需要时间来调整分销网络。而一些供应商尤其是小企 业，可能无法足够快地适应新形势并可能会倒闭，这加剧了供应链的混乱。 迈克尔·巴尔担忧， 随着经济增长放缓，关税将导致失业率上升，如果同时出现通货膨胀和失业率上升的情况， 美联储可能会陷入困境。 欧盟委员会主席提出会面条件 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时间9日在布鲁塞尔表示，在欧美能够进行具体的贸易谈判之前，她不会前往华盛顿会见美国总统特朗普。 冯德莱恩在会见记者时表示， 如果访问白宫，她希望有一个可供讨论的一揽子协议。这个计划必须是具体的，希望有一个欧美双方都能同意的解决方 案。 昨夜，美股高开后集体跳水。美联储理事最新表示，关税政策可能导致美国经济增长放缓。 而欧美关税谈判方面，欧盟委员会主席也提出了明确的和特朗普见面的条件： 必须有 ...

智通财经5月9日电，深圳市地方金融管理局、中国证券监督管理委员会深圳监管局印发《深圳市关于发 挥资本市场作用 建设产业金融中心行动方案（2025-2026年）》，打造一流投资银行及投资机构，做好 金融"五篇大文章"。支持头部机构通过并购重组、组织创新等方式做优做强，鼓励中小机构差异化发 展、特色化经营。以"上市公司质量"为导向强化投行业务监管，推动证券公司健全内控体系，提高执业 质量。引导头部证券公司有序发展境外业务，支持企业用好"两个市场""两种资源"，提升国际影响力。 推动投资机构提升投研核心能力，优化资源配置。督促投资机构以满足居民财富管理需求为出发点探索 产品创新，深入开展数字化转型，推进普惠金融高质量发展。支持投资机构用好社保基金、养老金、年 金等投资管理资格，吸引中长期资金入市。积极推进深圳个人养老金业务，支持养老金、保险资金等中 长期资金加快发展权益投资。 深圳：支持头部机构通过并购重组、组织创新等方式做优做强 ...

May 5, 2025 04:01 PM GMT Cross-Asset Spotlight | Global M Update Signals, Flows & Key Data A weekly summary of key cross-asset monitors, data, moves, and models tracking sentiment, fund flows, and positioning. Key highlights from last week: Exhibit 1: Morgan Stanley forecasts | | As of May | Q4 2025 Forecast | Q4 2025 Return Forecast Volatility | | Base Case | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 02, 2025 | Base | Base | | Return/Risk | | Equities | | | Total Returns | | | | S&P 500 | 5,687 | 6,500 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that India will likely outperform a global bear market while underperforming in a bull market, indicating a positive long-term investment outlook for India despite global uncertainties [1][3]. Core Insights - Strong macroeconomic fundamentals are highlighted, including improving terms of trade, declining primary deficit, and falling inflation volatility, which are expected to support mid- to high-teens earnings growth annually over the next three to five years [6]. - Technical indicators are favorable, with orderly declines in the market and persistent retail buying, suggesting a structural nature to the current market dynamics [6]. - Key catalysts for India include dovish actions from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), potential stimulus through GST rate cuts, and a trade deal with the US, while global factors such as US policy and growth rates remain crucial [6]. Summary by Sections Macro Stability - The report emphasizes strong macro stability with a reliable source of domestic risk capital and a dovish RBI, which are expected to support economic growth [6][35]. Corporate Fundamentals - Earnings growth is projected to be robust, with estimates suggesting a compound annual growth rate of 16% through fiscal year 2028, driven by increased private investment and macro stability [94][96]. Valuations - The current price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.8 implies a 10-year annual return of 9.6%, indicating improved long-term return prospects [77][78]. Portfolio Strategy - The recommended portfolio strategy favors domestic cyclicals over defensives and external-facing sectors, with an overweight position in financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials [6][100]. Economic Forecasts - GDP growth is forecasted at 6.3% for fiscal year 2025, with a gradual decline in the repo rate expected to support economic activity [94]. Index Target - The base case target for the BSE Sensex is set at 82,000 by December 2025, reflecting a modest upside potential of 2% from current levels [95][96]. Sentiment Indicators - The proprietary sentiment indicator remains in the buy zone, suggesting positive market sentiment despite global uncertainties [6][91]. Institutional Flows - Institutional flows are currently off highs, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics that could impact equity returns in the near term [88]. Risk Factors - While the report identifies several risks, it emphasizes that the overall outlook for India remains positive, supported by strong fundamentals and favorable technicals [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Chinese exports showed a year-over-year growth of 10.1% in real terms for Q1 2025, while nominal exports grew by 5.6% due to lower export prices across all categories [7] - The report anticipates a significant slowdown in export volume growth in the coming months if tariffs are maintained, projecting a decline of 5% in total goods export volume for 2025 [7][50] - Chinese nominal imports fell by 7.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to decreasing import volumes [25] - The current account surplus is expected to decrease to 1.6% of GDP in 2025 from 2.2% in 2024, driven by a narrower goods trade surplus and a widening services trade deficit [7][55] Summary by Sections Exports - Chinese exports remained solid in Q1 2025, with a 10.1% year-over-year growth in real terms, while nominal exports grew by 5.6% [7] - The decline in export prices was broad-based, affecting all categories, with the most significant increases in real terms for stone/glass/metals and transportation equipment [7][21] - Exports to Africa saw the highest year-over-year increase in Q1 [18] - New export orders under both NBS and Caixin manufacturing PMIs fell sharply in April amid higher US tariffs [23] Imports - Nominal imports decreased by 7.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with the weakest growth in stone/glass/metals due to lower gold imports [25] - Mechanical machinery and electric equipment saw the strongest import growth, while import prices for stone/glass/metals increased the most [25][39] - Imports fell for all regions except Japan, Korea & Taiwan, and ASEAN [33] Current Account and Balance of Payments - The report projects a decline in China's goods trade surplus to 3.7% of GDP in 2025 from 4.0% in 2024 [7] - The broad balance of payments (BBOP) is expected to remain unchanged at 0.4% of GDP in 2025, with significant net FDI outflows [8][57] - The current account balance is projected to narrow, reflecting a combination of a smaller goods trade surplus and a wider services trade deficit [55]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for Q4 were $666 million, up 28% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share were $1.96, up 54% compared to the same quarter last year [6] - For the fiscal year 2025, total revenues reached $2.4 billion, marking a 25% increase from the previous year, the highest annual revenue in the firm's history [6][10] - Adjusted compensation expenses for Q4 were $410 million, compared to $320 million in the same period last year, maintaining an adjusted compensation expense ratio of 61.5% [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Corporate Finance revenues were $413 million for the quarter, a 44% increase year-over-year, with 147 transactions closed, up from 121 in the same period last year [12] - Financial Restructuring revenues were $165 million for the quarter, a 6% increase year-over-year, with 38 transactions closed compared to 35 in the same quarter last year [13] - Financial and Valuation Advisory revenues were $89 million for the quarter, a 15% increase from the same period last year, with 1,224 fee events during the quarter [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the average size of transactions and average transaction fees in Corporate Finance continued to grow, indicating a strengthening brand perception and quality of senior hires [7][8] - The capital markets business, now rebranded as Capital Solutions, had a record year, enhancing the platform with diversified, high-growth, and less volatile revenues [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company executed three acquisitions in fiscal year 2025, expanding its industry, geographic, and product reach, which remains a key component of its growth strategy [7] - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining a diversified business model to navigate volatile market conditions effectively [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued elevated levels of restructuring activity, bolstered by recent market events [30] - The company acknowledged the challenges in forecasting due to current market volatility but noted that pitch level activity and deal processes were proceeding at a normal rate [23][24] Other Important Information - The Board approved a 5.3% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.60 per share, to be paid in June [20] - The company ended the fiscal year with approximately $1.2 billion in unrestricted cash and equivalents, with a significant portion earmarked for accrued bonuses [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: How have revenues been tracking quarter to date amidst volatility? - Management indicated it is too early to provide meaningful indications but noted that pitch level activity and deal processes are moving at a normal rate [23] Question: What is the outlook for restructuring in light of recent events? - Management expects restructuring to remain at elevated levels, with confidence in continued activity [30] Question: How does the outlook differ between middle market and large scale M&A? - Management confirmed that mid-cap volumes are generally more resilient than large-cap volumes, a trend observed in previous cycles [44] Question: What is the state of the bolt-on acquisition pipeline for fiscal year 2026? - Management stated that discussions around acquisition opportunities remain active and are crucial to the strategic direction of the company [46] Question: How is the Capital Solutions business performing? - Management noted that the Capital Solutions Group continues to grow significantly, driven by various market trends [51] Question: What is the capacity for restructuring in a more stressed macro environment? - Management indicated that there is substantial capacity to handle a larger restructuring environment, with revenue per managing director currently lower than during previous economic downturns [55]