Summary of Key Points from the US Economics Analyst Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the US economy, particularly GDP growth, labor market dynamics, inflation trends, and fiscal policy implications for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Forecast**: The company forecasts GDP growth at 2.5% for 2026 Q4/Q4, above the consensus of 2.1%. For the full year, the forecast is 2.9% compared to a consensus of 2.4% [5][7][70]. 2. **Business Investment**: Business investment is expected to be the strongest component of GDP, growing over 5% on both a Q4/Q4 and full-year basis, which is double the consensus forecast. This growth is attributed to spending on artificial intelligence, easier financial conditions, and new tax incentives [12][16][70]. 3. **Residential Investment**: Residential investment is projected to remain the weakest component of GDP, with single-family housing starts unlikely to rebound above 1 million due to a construction boom earlier in the cycle and affordability constraints [19][20][29][70]. 4. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The labor market is expected to remain balanced, with wage growth around 3.5%. However, job losses in AI-exposed industries are anticipated to increase, potentially displacing 6-7% of current jobs [31][35][70]. 5. **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation is expected to decline from 3% in December 2025 to 2.1% in December 2026, with significant drops in core goods inflation and shelter inflation [42][51][70]. 6. **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to implement two rate cuts in 2026, with the next cut projected for June, bringing the rate to 3-3.25% [56][58][70]. 7. **Fiscal Policy Outlook**: The company does not expect major new fiscal stimulus measures ahead of the midterm elections, with a positive fiscal impulse averaging +0.5pp from previously passed tax cuts and spending increases [62][64][70]. Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Policy**: The effective tariff rate is likely to remain stable or decrease slightly due to political considerations ahead of the midterm elections [59][60][70]. - **Household Formation**: A decline in net immigration is expected to reduce new household formation, further impacting the housing market [24][70]. - **Affordability Issues**: High prices and mortgage rates are constraining demand for new single-family housing, despite a national housing shortage [26][29][70]. - **Investment Incentives**: New tax incentives from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are expected to boost investment primarily in manufacturing, mining, and transportation sectors [16][70]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the economic outlook for 2026 as analyzed by the company.

January 26, 2026 01:06 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | North America M Idea Five USD Factors: Where Do We Stand? The USD bear case has softened as US growth has been surprisingly resilient, but four forces still skew weaker: strong ex- US data, lingering policy risk, an undervalued JPY, and a rising CNY. Key Takeaways Click here to be added to this email distribution list. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Andrew M Watrous Strategist Andrew.Watrous@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5287 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ D ...

Gold (GC=F) continued to rise on Monday after breaking above $5,000 an ounce earlier than Wall Street expected. Futures hit the major milestone on Sunday while silver (SI=F) also soared at one point beyond $115, raising questions about the stunning speed of the rally in precious metals. Gold's surge has become a hallmark of the “debasement trade,” with investors buying assets to protect against the erosion of purchasing power amid soaring government debt worldwide. Silver has moved even more aggressive ...

Hand stacking coins beside laptop stock chart, symbolizing dividend income and long-term investing. Key Points Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and Fastenal opened 2026 with sizable dividend hikes, pushing yields into the ~2% range. The increases follow uneven 2025 stock performance—Goldman surged, BlackRock lagged despite strong revenue growth, and Fastenal posted steady gains. Among the group, analyst upside expectations skew highest for BlackRock, alongside a newly boosted dividend. Interested in The Gold ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged to a record high of over $5,100 per ounce, driven by heightened global tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][10] - The rise in gold prices reflects a broader trend of investors moving away from currencies and Treasuries due to concerns over debt levels in advanced economies [2][3] - Analysts predict further increases in gold prices, with forecasts ranging from $5,400 to $6,000 per ounce by year-end, indicating strong market confidence [8][9] Market Performance - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 since the turn of the century, highlighting its role as a long-term store of value [4] - The precious metals market has seen significant gains, with gold rising 15% so far this year and silver reaching a new peak of $113.60 per ounce [1][8] Investor Behavior - There is a notable shift among long-term investors, particularly family offices, focusing on generational wealth protection through gold investments [3] - A wave of new first-time investors, particularly from Asia and Europe, is contributing to the demand for precious metals [10] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. foreign policy actions, have intensified market fears, further driving investment into gold [7][10] - Central banks are actively buying gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, supporting ongoing price increases [10]

Jefferies, a Wall Street investment bank, said maturing blockchain infrastructure and incremental regulatory progress are laying the groundwork for a new wave of tokenization by institutions in traditional finance (TradFi). Broad adoption, however, depends on having clear U.S. market structure rules, it said. The bank pointed to the draft Digital Asset Market Clarity Act as the most detailed blueprint yet for how blockchain-based financial infrastructure could develop, even though hurdles remain in its p ...

Summary of Key Points from the Oil Market Forecasts Industry Overview - The report summarizes oil market forecasts from the IEA (International Energy Agency), EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) for 2026, highlighting demand and supply dynamics in the oil industry [2][4]. Core Insights Demand Growth Estimates - **2025 Demand Growth**: - IEA and EIA both revised global demand growth estimates upwards by 20 kb/d, now forecasting +0.85 mb/d and +1.16 mb/d respectively [5]. - IEA's revision includes a +60 kb/d increase in China demand, offset by downgrades in OECD Europe and Russia [5]. - OPEC maintained its estimate at +1.3 mb/d [5]. - **2026 Demand Growth**: - IEA upgraded its demand growth forecast by +60 kb/d to +0.93 mb/d, while EIA reduced its forecast by -100 kb/d to +1.13 mb/d [6]. - The IEA's upward revision is attributed to OECD Europe, while EIA's downgrade reflects weaker demand in Europe and China, partially offset by increases in India and Africa [6]. - OPEC's forecast remains unchanged at +1.38 mb/d for 2026 and introduces a 2027 estimate of +1.34 mb/d [6]. Supply Dynamics - **Non-OPEC Supply Growth**: - IEA revised its 2025 non-OPEC supply growth estimate upwards by +70 kb/d to +1.73 mb/d, driven by increases in Russian, U.S., and Canadian output [13]. - EIA's estimate for 2025 remains flat at +1.19 mb/d, with minor adjustments due to declining output from Kazakhstan [13]. - **2026 Non-OPEC Supply Growth**: - Both IEA and EIA now forecast +1.2 mb/d growth for 2026, with IEA making a -30 kb/d downward revision due to reduced Kazakh supply [14]. - IEA's forecast includes a +40 kb/d increase in Brazilian output, while EIA raised its growth forecast by +60 kb/d, primarily from U.S. liquids [14]. OPEC Production Insights - OPEC-12 output rose by ~105 kb/d in December, led by Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Libya, but offset by a decline from Venezuela due to U.S. sanctions [16]. - The IEA reported a -340 kb/d decline in OPEC-12 production for December, contrasting with secondary sources [20]. - OPEC's 2025 crude production forecast was lowered by 70 kb/d to 28.4 mb/d, primarily due to a downgrade in Saudi production [21]. Market Surplus Projections - IEA projects a surplus of 3.7 mb/d for 2026, slightly down from previous estimates, driven by demand upgrades from OECD regions [23]. - EIA's surplus estimate increased from 2.3 mb/d to 2.8 mb/d, reflecting weaker demand in Europe and China [25]. - The convergence of IEA and EIA forecasts marks the closest agreement since July 2025, although discrepancies remain regarding OPEC production growth [26]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the IEA's estimate for the 2026 market surplus has stabilized, with demand forecasts gradually increasing and OPEC production estimates leveling off [27]. - The overall outlook suggests a significant oversupply in the oil market for 2026, with both agencies highlighting the need for careful monitoring of demand and supply dynamics moving forward [23][24].

Goldman Sachs is making a return to the US dollar bond market just over a week since its $16 billion bond sale — the biggest on record for a US bank https://t.co/etoDkrPZoi ...

Core Insights - Raymond James (RJF) is expected to report a decline in earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, while revenues are projected to increase [1][2] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RJF's fiscal first-quarter earnings is $2.83, reflecting a 3.4% decline year-over-year [2] - The consensus estimate for sales is $3.73 billion, indicating a 5.4% year-over-year growth [2][9] Asset Management and Fees - Management anticipates a 6.5% sequential growth in asset management and related administrative fees, driven by higher PCG assets and fee-based accounts [3] Investment Banking Performance - Global M&A activity surged in the December quarter, positively impacting RJF's advisory fees due to an easing buyer-seller valuation gap and lower capital costs [4] - The consensus estimate for RJF's investment banking fees is $276.4 million, which represents a 15% decline year-over-year [5] Trading Revenues - RJF's trading business is expected to perform strongly due to increased client activity and market volatility, influenced by factors such as the longest U.S. government shutdown and easing monetary policy [6] Net Interest Income - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net interest income (NII) is $551.8 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 33.3% [8][9] - Management expects NII and third-party fees from the Raymond James Bank Deposit Program to remain stable sequentially [8] Expense Outlook - Overall expenses are anticipated to rise due to consistent hiring of advisors and investments in franchises, compounded by a competitive environment and inflationary pressures [10] Earnings Surprise Potential - The likelihood of RJF beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate is considered high, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [11]

Mizuho has brought in Jon Connor and Thibaud de Maria as part of a hiring wave of senior investment bankers, said people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because it wasn’t public yet https://t.co/8rV2DRQsm5 ...