Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is constrained by the March high of 24,874 points, with expectations of new financial policies from mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to reasonable levels, requiring significant positive developments in trade agreements and corporate earnings improvements to maintain upward momentum [2] Short-term Sector Outlook - Focus on China's fixed asset investment, industrial output, and retail sales for January to May, as well as the performance of specific companies like Café de Coral Group [3] Macro Focus - In May, new loans in mainland China amounted to 620 billion RMB, falling short of expectations, with total new loans for the first five months reaching 10.68 trillion RMB [4][9] - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year increase of 7.9% in M2 money supply, while M1 increased by 2.3% [9] - The social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion RMB in May, with a cumulative increase of 18.63 trillion RMB for the first five months [9] Company News - Strategic research cooperation agreement established between CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and AstraZeneca [4] - WuXi Biologics' major shareholder reduced holdings at a discount, realizing 2.2 billion RMB [4] - Zijin Mining lowered production guidance for the Kakula copper mine, impacting this year's profits [4] International Market Outlook - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [4] - OPEC+ is increasing supply, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and limiting upward pressure on international oil prices [4] Technology Sector - Apple iPhone sales in China rose to first place in May, with a year-on-year global sales growth of 15% during April and May, marking the strongest performance since the pandemic [10]

Company Recommendations - Leap Motor (9863) is recommended for purchase with a current price of 54.85 HKD and a short-term target price of 60.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 13.6% [2][9] - The company has seen a strong response to the launch of its SUV B10, with over 20,000 orders in the first month, which is expected to positively impact its Q2 2025 performance [9] - Leap Motor has formed strategic partnerships with international automotive group Stellantis and domestic giant FAW Group, enhancing its market position and potential for future growth [2][9] Financial Performance - Leap Motor's Q4 2024 results met market expectations, with revenue and net profit turning positive for the first time at 80 million RMB, achieving a gross margin of 13.3%, the highest since its inception [9] - The company has raised its sales guidance for 2025 from 500,000 to 500,000-600,000 units, projecting an annual growth of 87% based on a midpoint estimate of 550,000 units [9] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase in deliveries by 1.6 times to 87,552 units, representing 16% of the updated annual sales guidance [9] Market Outlook - The market anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49% for Leap Motor's revenue from FY24 to FY27, with the current price corresponding to a forecasted price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25, slightly below its historical average [9] - The company is expected to benefit from economies of scale and improved profitability as new vehicle sales continue to rise [9] Macro Environment - The Hang Seng Index is facing initial resistance at 23,000 points, influenced by recent announcements from the U.S. regarding tariffs and economic stimulus measures [2][5] - The Chinese government is expected to increase efforts to stabilize the economy, which may positively impact domestic demand and market sentiment [2][5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent fluctuations in major stock indices, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a decline of 0.57% to close at 24,231.30, while the H-share index fell by 0.27% to 8,914.03 [2][7] - The report notes that the U.S. labor market added 150,000 jobs in February, slightly below market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% [7][8] - The report indicates that China's foreign exchange reserves decreased slightly to $3,227.2 billion in February, compared to $3,229 billion in January [8][10] Stock Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index and H-share Index both saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.57% and the H-share Index down 0.27% [2][7] - The report provides a detailed performance summary of various stock indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nikkei 225, with the Dow Jones gaining 0.52% and the S&P 500 up 0.55% [2][7] - The report also highlights sector performance, noting that the non-ferrous metals sector showed strength while sectors like multi-financial and real estate services faced declines [7] Economic Data Summary - The report summarizes key economic indicators, including the U.S. unemployment rate at 4.1% and Eurozone GDP growth at 1.2% year-on-year for Q4 [8][10] - It mentions that China's exports reached a record high of $540 billion in the first two months of the year, with a trade surplus of $170.5 billion [10][9] - The report notes that the Australian gold exports to the U.S. reached a record high of 4.6 billion AUD (approximately 2.9 billion USD) in January [10] Company News - Baidu plans to issue exchangeable bonds totaling up to $2 billion, which can be converted into shares of Ctrip [10] - Dongfeng Group reported a 31.8% decline in vehicle sales in February, with total sales of 109,122 units [10] - GAC Group's vehicle sales in February were 98,721 units, showing a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales up 33% [10]

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