Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has experienced significant volatility recently, with a 7.2% fluctuation over the past five days, indicating market uncertainty regarding its future performance [1]. Financial Performance Expectations - Xiaomi is set to announce its Q2 earnings on August 19, with net profit estimates ranging from 8.1 billion to 10.27 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.9% to 101.5% from 5.098 billion RMB [1]. - Revenue forecasts for Q2 are between 112.086 billion and 117.826 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.1% to 32.6% from 88.888 billion RMB [1]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - CCB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi, adjusting the target price slightly from 75.25 RMB to 74.4 RMB, citing attractive valuation after a 16% pullback from recent highs [1]. - JPMorgan has a "Neutral" rating, with a target price of 60 RMB, noting that Xiaomi's stock has underperformed the benchmark index amid expectations of slowing profits in its core smartphone and IoT businesses [1]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels for Xiaomi are at 51.4 RMB and 48.7 RMB, while resistance levels are at 55.8 RMB and 57.7 RMB [2]. - A "death cross" is anticipated as the 10-day moving average approaches the 30-day moving average, indicating potential bearish sentiment [2]. Derivative Products and Trading Strategies - HSBC's call option (18005) offers a leverage of 7 times with a strike price of 60.65 RMB, suitable for short-term traders [5]. - UBS's call option (14816) provides a slightly lower leverage of 6.9 times, appealing to medium-term investors [5]. - For bearish investors, the Barclays put option (17868) offers a leverage of 4.8 times with a strike price of 54 RMB, presenting a favorable risk-reward ratio [5]. Market Insights - Recent performance of derivative products linked to Xiaomi has shown significant gains, with HSBC's call option rising by 18% and UBS's call option increasing by 36% in a volatile market [10]. - The upcoming earnings announcement raises questions about whether to position in derivatives beforehand or wait for the results [12].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,906.81 points, up 0.19% for the day and up 24.16% year-to-date[6] - The total trading volume decreased by 2.8% to HKD 200.9 billion[8] - The US Dow Jones Index fell by 0.45% to 43,975 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 0.25% and 0.3% respectively[8] Company Performance - Kang Shifu Holdings reported a mid-term profit of RMB 2.271 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.46%[8] - Yuanyuan Group's mid-term profit attributable to shareholders was USD 171 million, down 7.16% year-on-year[8] - Tianqi Lithium Industries saw a stock increase of 18.2%, while Ganfeng Lithium rose by 20.9%[8] Economic Indicators - The automotive sales in China dropped nearly 11% month-on-month last month according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers[3] - The US two-year bond yield is currently at 3.7643%, down 12.07 basis points over the past month[23] Technical Analysis - The Hang Seng Index is currently lacking direction, with the market awaiting significant news, particularly regarding US-China trade negotiations[10] - Short-term index movements are expected to remain within the range of the 10-day and 20-day moving averages[10] Investment Recommendations - Nebius (NBIS.US) is highlighted for its strong growth potential in AI infrastructure, with a recommendation to buy at USD 65 and a target price of USD 75[14] - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) has a suggested buy price of HKD 480 and a target price of HKD 550, with a current price of HKD 554[12]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock has been underperforming due to a 3% quarter-over-quarter decline in overseas smartphone shipments and disappointing electronic consumer goods retail data, leading to a significant drop in stock price over the past two days [1]. Technical Analysis - The overall technical indicators for Xiaomi signal a "sell" with a strength of 13, indicating a bearish medium to long-term trend [1]. - Multiple moving averages are showing a "strong sell" signal, while several oscillators are in a neutral state, suggesting a potential for short-term oversold rebound [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43, indicating it is within a normal range [1]. - The system's assessed probability of an upward movement is 57%, with a recent 5-day price fluctuation of 7.7%, reflecting moderate volatility but clear short-term downward pressure [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level is at 53.7 HKD; if this level is breached, the next target is 52.1 HKD [3]. - The initial resistance level is at 57.6 HKD, and a breakthrough here would allow for a challenge of 60.5 HKD [3]. - The current stock price is positioned between the support and resistance levels, leaning towards the lower end, making the maintenance of the 53.7 HKD support critical for a potential short-term rebound [3]. Product Performance - Previously recommended leveraged products, such as the Societe Generale bear certificates (54560) and HSBC bear certificates (59572), showed significant gains of 48% and 54% respectively within two days [3]. - Other put options from JPMorgan and UBS also outperformed, with increases of 18% and 16%, significantly exceeding the underlying stock's decline of 3.66% [3]. Investment Products - For investors anticipating a short-term rebound, UBS call options (15800) offer a leverage of 8.1 times with a strike price of 63.05 HKD, while Bank of China call options (13385) provide a leverage of 8.4 times, presenting a better cost-performance ratio [6]. - For bearish investors, HSBC put options (14333) and Morgan Stanley put options (14322) offer a leverage of 3.5 times with a strike price of 46.45 HKD, suitable for those expecting significant downside [6]. Market Sentiment - Despite the bearish technical outlook for Xiaomi, the probability of an upward movement remains above 50%, indicating market divergence [12]. - The ability to hold the 53.7 HKD support level is crucial; a breakdown with increased volume could trigger further selling pressure, while support at this level could lead to a short-term rebound opportunity [12].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The US-China trade talks have seen limited progress, and there is a lack of willingness from China to implement further economic stimulus measures [2] - The inflow of capital from the north has slowed down, indicating limited improvement in corporate earnings [2] Macro Focus - The US has announced tariffs on Japan and South Korea at 25%, and on Laos and Myanmar at 40%, effective August 1 [4][8] - The US Treasury Secretary anticipates discussions with Chinese officials to advance trade and other issues [4][8] - The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious stance on inflation uncertainties [4][8] - The Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, continuing a trend of accumulation [4][8] Sector Highlights - The biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from new measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [7] - Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [7] - The power sector is seeing increased demand due to high temperatures [7] Company News - Lens Technology (6613) priced its shares at HKD 18.18, a discount of nearly 28% compared to A-shares [10] - Dongfeng Motor (0489) aims to maintain its annual sales target of 3 million vehicles, with a focus on 1 million new energy vehicles [10] - Xiaomi (1810) reported a 20-fold increase in air conditioner sales in Northeast China due to unprecedented high temperatures [10] - NIO (9866) plans to officially launch its third factory in Hefei in September [10] - JD Logistics (1519) reported a 23.5% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for the second quarter [10]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reported that Xiaomi experienced over 30% year-on-year growth during the recent 618 shopping festival, with domestic business maintaining a strong growth momentum in Q2, accumulating a total payment amount of 35.5 billion RMB [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that Xiaomi's electric vehicle factory phase two is preparing for production, with the YU 7 expected to be officially launched between late June and early July, which could be positive news for Xiaomi [1] - Technical analysis shows mixed signals; while overall signals indicate a buy with a strength of 15, some oscillators like the RSI are in overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term price adjustments [1][3] Technical Analysis - Xiaomi has two support levels at 52.3 and 54, with resistance levels at 58.4 and 60.4. The current price is 57.1, indicating a delicate balance between support and resistance [3] - The probability of an upward movement is 53%, with a 5-day volatility of 7.3%, reflecting market divergence in sentiment towards Xiaomi [3] Product Performance - Several products mentioned on June 19 performed well, with notable increases in warrants such as Citibank's warrant 13549 and HSBC's put warrant 14333, showing significant price appreciation within two days [3][5] Investment Opportunities - For those anticipating a rise in Xiaomi's stock price, Citibank's warrant 13549 offers the lowest premium with a leverage of 10.6 times and an exercise price of 61.5 [5] - For hedging against potential declines, HSBC's put warrant 14333 is recommended due to its low premium and implied volatility [6] Related Assets - Various warrants and certificates related to Xiaomi are available, including Citibank's warrant 13549 with a leverage of 10.6, and UBS's bear certificate 56421 with a leverage of 13.1 [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's Chairman Lei Jun announced the upcoming launch of the Xiaomi YU7 at the end of June, alongside several other significant products, including the Xiaomi Pad 7S Pro and the REDMI flagship K80 Supreme Edition [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of today, Xiaomi's stock price is HKD 53.95, up 3.85%, with a trading volume of HKD 5.796 billion, indicating active market participation [1] - The stock price has surpassed the 10-day moving average (HKD 53.39) and the 30-day moving average (HKD 52.17), with the MACD indicator showing a buy signal [1] - Key technical levels indicate that HKD 51.4 serves as an important support level, with stronger support at HKD 50.7, while HKD 55.6 is a critical resistance level that, if broken, could challenge HKD 57.2 [1] Group 2: Options and Leverage - The market offers several bullish options, including Citibank's call option 13549 with a leverage of 10.1 times and a strike price of HKD 61.5, and Societe Generale's call option 15645 with a leverage of 10.9 times [7] - Morgan Stanley's bull certificate 53165 provides an actual leverage of 8.2 times with a redemption price of HKD 48, while HSBC's bull certificate 58043 offers 9.1 times leverage with a redemption price of HKD 48.5 [7] - For bearish strategies, Morgan Stanley's bear certificate 60625 offers a high leverage of 21.4 times with a redemption price of HKD 56, and HSBC's bear certificate 60523 has a leverage of 13.7 times with a redemption price of HKD 57.5 [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is constrained by the March high of 24,874 points, with expectations of new financial policies from mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to reasonable levels, requiring significant positive developments in trade agreements and corporate earnings improvements to maintain upward momentum [2] Short-term Sector Outlook - Focus on China's fixed asset investment, industrial output, and retail sales for January to May, as well as the performance of specific companies like Café de Coral Group [3] Macro Focus - In May, new loans in mainland China amounted to 620 billion RMB, falling short of expectations, with total new loans for the first five months reaching 10.68 trillion RMB [4][9] - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year increase of 7.9% in M2 money supply, while M1 increased by 2.3% [9] - The social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion RMB in May, with a cumulative increase of 18.63 trillion RMB for the first five months [9] Company News - Strategic research cooperation agreement established between CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and AstraZeneca [4] - WuXi Biologics' major shareholder reduced holdings at a discount, realizing 2.2 billion RMB [4] - Zijin Mining lowered production guidance for the Kakula copper mine, impacting this year's profits [4] International Market Outlook - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [4] - OPEC+ is increasing supply, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and limiting upward pressure on international oil prices [4] Technology Sector - Apple iPhone sales in China rose to first place in May, with a year-on-year global sales growth of 15% during April and May, marking the strongest performance since the pandemic [10]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock shows potential for upward movement despite market volatility, with various investment products available for traders to capitalize on this trend [1][3]. Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is currently experiencing a volatile environment, with mixed performance among major indices and cautious investor sentiment [1]. - Xiaomi's stock price reached HKD 52.45, reflecting a daily increase of 1.65% and a 5-day volatility of 7.1% [1]. Technical Analysis - Multiple technical indicators for Xiaomi signal a "buy" recommendation, with a strength rating of 15, indicating strong buying interest [3]. - The assessed probability of upward movement is 0.53, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at HKD 50 and HKD 48.3, while resistance levels are at HKD 54.2 and HKD 56.6 [3]. Product Performance - On May 30, 2025, Xiaomi's stock rose by 2.94%, while related investment products like Citibank's bull certificate saw a two-day increase of 81% [3]. - The performance of warrants and certificates indicates significant profit opportunities amid market fluctuations [3]. Investment Products - For bullish investors, UBS's call option (14816) is recommended, featuring a leverage of 4.9 times and a strike price of HKD 61.05, with relatively low premiums [5]. - Citibank's call option (13549) offers a higher leverage of 8.4 times with a strike price of HKD 61.5 and the lowest premium [5]. Risk Management Tools - For investors concerned about potential price corrections, options like the BNP Paribas put option (14178) and HSBC put option (14333) serve as risk hedging tools, with low premiums and leverage of 2.6 and 2.5 times, respectively [6].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi reported a record Q1 revenue of 111.29 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, surpassing market expectations of 108.97 billion RMB [1] - Goldman Sachs raised the target price for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) by 4.8% to 65 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of 10:30 AM, Xiaomi's stock price increased by 1.65% to 52.4 HKD, with the 10-day moving average at 52.17 HKD acting as resistance and the 30-day moving average at 48.91 HKD providing support [1] - The RSI indicator is at 55, indicating a neutral zone, while the MACD shows a buy signal, suggesting a potential breakout [1] - If Xiaomi fails to break through the resistance at 54.3 HKD, it may test the support level at 47.7 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Derivatives - Investors are divided on Xiaomi's future, with some speculating a rise to 60 HKD post-earnings, while others predict a drop back to around 48 HKD [3] - In the options market, there is a concern regarding the 100% street stock volume of certain products, which may lead to increased price volatility [3] - On May 23, when Xiaomi's stock fell by 3.68%, related bearish derivatives performed exceptionally well, with UBS bear certificates rising by 29% and Societe Generale bear certificates increasing by 28% [3][4] Group 3: Derivative Products - For bullish investors, Citigroup's call option (14453) offers a leverage of 4.3 times with a strike price of 60.6 HKD, ideal for capturing upward potential [6] - For bearish investors, the Barclays put option (14178) provides 2.3 times leverage with the lowest premium and implied volatility, making it a solid defensive choice [6] - The HSBC put option (14333) offers 2.2 times leverage with a strike price of 46.45 HKD, presenting a relatively high leverage opportunity [6] Group 4: Short-term Trading Strategies - For bullish strategies, JPMorgan's bull certificate (55982) offers a leverage of 10.5 times with a redemption price of 47.2 HKD, making it a preferred choice for rebound scenarios [9] - For higher leverage, JPMorgan's bull certificate (55750) provides 8 times leverage with a slightly lower redemption price of 46 HKD [9] - Bear certificates from Societe Generale (59702) and UBS (60093) both have a redemption price of 58 HKD, offering leverage of 8.7 times and 8.3 times, respectively [9]

Group 1 - Xiaomi's stock price is currently fluctuating around 54.45 HKD, with technical indicators showing mixed signals [1] - As of 9:55 AM, Xiaomi's stock price was at 54.55 HKD, a slight increase of 0.18%, with resistance at 56 HKD and support at 50.4 HKD [1] - The MACD and Ichimoku indicators are signaling a buy, while the RSI is at 66, nearing the overbought zone, and the Williams indicator shows a sell warning [1] Group 2 - On May 19, when Xiaomi's stock rose by 4.01%, related derivatives performed strongly, with the Morgan Stanley call option (14642) surging by 22% [3] - UBS bull certificates (66801) and call options (14991) increased by 19% and 18% respectively, while Morgan Stanley bull certificates (67102) also rose by 18% [3] - This data highlights the leverage effect of derivatives in high volatility markets, particularly call options [3] Group 3 - For investors optimistic about Xiaomi breaking the 56 HKD resistance, several high-leverage products are available, including UBS call options (14991) with a leverage of 4.8 times [5] - HSBC call options (15392) follow closely with a leverage of 4.7 times, while Morgan Stanley bull certificates (55982) offer a leverage of 6.7 times with an attractive premium level [5] - Morgan Stanley bull certificates (55750) have a lower recovery price of 46 HKD but provide a leverage of 5.6 times, suitable for aggressive investors [5] Group 4 - For bearish expectations, HSBC put options (14333) and Morgan Stanley put options (14322) offer leverage of 2.3 times and 2.4 times respectively, both with a strike price of 46.45 HKD [8] - Among bear certificates, UBS bear certificates (56421) provide a leverage of 8.8 times with a recovery price of 61 HKD, while Societe Generale bear certificates (56288) offer 9.4 times leverage with a recovery price of 60.5 HKD, suitable for short-term trading [8] Group 5 - Investors can choose based on their risk preferences: conservative investors may consider out-of-the-money call options, balanced investors may opt for medium-leverage bull certificates, and aggressive investors may select high-leverage bear certificates for short-term trades [11] - Regardless of market position, strict position control and clear stop-loss points are recommended [11]