小米股價近日走勢可謂風高浪急，下挫近3.66%，報37.4元，已經跌穿所有重要移動平均線。從技術面來看，RSI指標已經落入22的超賣區域，這在歷史上往 往是短線反彈的前兆。多個震盪指標同時發出買入信號，包括威廉指標和隨機震盪指標都顯示股票處於極度超賣狀態，這種技術條件是否暗示小米即將迎來 一波技術性反彈呢？ 目前小米的關鍵支持位落在36.9元，若跌破此位，下一支持將下探34.6元。而在阻力方面，首個阻力位在42.5元，突破後有望挑戰47.7元關口。值得注意的 是，保力加通道顯示股價已經接近通道下軌，這通常意味著下行空間有限。根據歷史數據統計，在當前技術條件下，小米短期內有58%的上升概率，5日振 幅達15.5%，波動性相當高。各位投資者認為，小米能否在36.9元支持位站穩腳步，展開反彈？ 在產品表現方面，回顧近日窩輪和牛熊證市場，幾隻看空產品表現亮眼。例如在11月17日提及的摩通熊證63577，在正股下跌7.48%的情況下，兩日內錄得 66%的驚人升幅。同樣地，法興熊證62823和華泰認沽證29233也分別有62%和59%的漲幅。這些數據清楚顯示，在波動市場中，選擇合適的衍生工具能夠放 大收益。 資訊 輪證 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The analysis focuses on the performance and potential investment opportunities related to specific stocks, particularly Xiaomi, Jiangxi Copper, Standard Chartered, and Cathay Pacific, along with their corresponding financial products. Group 1: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi's stock has seen a significant decline from a high of 59.9 HKD to a current price of 44.9 HKD, a drop of 15 HKD [1] - Technical signals currently indicate a "strong buy" for Xiaomi, suggesting a slight bullish outlook despite the recent downturn [1] - There are limited options for call products at the current price level, with some having exercise prices around 37 HKD and leverage between 2.1x to 2.6x [1] - If the stock price drops below 42.8 HKD, it may reach 38.2 HKD, making products with an exercise price of 37.15 HKD potentially attractive [2] - The market has few suitable out-of-the-money products, with exercise prices starting at 52 HKD, indicating a more than 10% out-of-the-money margin [3] Group 2: Jiangxi Copper (00358) - Jiangxi Copper's stock price closed at 32.82 HKD, slightly below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating mixed market sentiment [6] - There are four put options available with exercise prices ranging from 28.88 HKD to 20 HKD, with varying leverage and implied volatility [7] - A comparison of put options shows that the 28.88 HKD exercise price has better leverage and implied volatility than the 23.35 HKD option, highlighting the importance of product comparison [7] Group 3: Standard Chartered (02888) - Standard Chartered's stock price increased to 153 HKD, with investors speculating whether it will challenge the previous high of 158.5 HKD [9] - There are currently limited suitable put options available for Standard Chartered, indicating a lack of investment products for bearish strategies [9] Group 4: Cathay Pacific (00293) - Cathay Pacific's stock has shown upward movement, closing at 11.26 HKD and breaking through the upper Bollinger Band [12] - There are limited options for call products, with only two available that have an exercise price of around 13 HKD and leverage of approximately 9.3x [13][14] - Investors are advised to compare the available products carefully, as the selection is currently limited, and the stock has already experienced a price increase [14]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is currently showing mixed signals, with some investors optimistic about breaking through resistance levels at 26,700 points, while others anticipate a drop to around 25,500 points [1][2] - Technical analysis indicates a predominance of sell signals, with 9 sell signals compared to 4 buy signals, suggesting a higher probability of adjustment in the near term [1][2] - The calculated resistance level is approximately 26,700 points, and if this level is breached, the index could potentially rise to around 27,400 points [2] Group 2 - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) has seen a slight recovery, with a current price of approximately 46.76 HKD, but technical signals remain bearish with 10 sell signals and only 2 buy signals [8] - The resistance level for Ganfeng Lithium is estimated at 51.3 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to further gains up to 53.1 HKD [8] Group 3 - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) is experiencing positive market sentiment, with expectations for the stock to rise to 99-100 HKD, supported by a closing price of 82.4 HKD [14] - The resistance level for Hua Hong is identified at 90.1 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to further increases [14] Group 4 - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) has shown a recovery with a closing price of 80 HKD, but technical signals indicate a bearish trend with 9 sell signals and 4 buy signals [19] - The resistance level is around 86 HKD, and if breached, it may lead to adjustments [20] Group 5 - Xiaomi Group (01810) has seen a significant decline from nearly 60 HKD to a current price of 45.7 HKD, with a short-term support level at 44.5 HKD [26] - If the stock falls below 44.5 HKD, it may drop further to around 40 HKD, which would breach the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands [26] Group 6 - China Mobile (00941) has shown some recovery, currently priced at 85.4 HKD, but the trading volume remains weak [32] - The support level is approximately 82.4 HKD, and if this level is broken, the stock could decline to 79.1 HKD [32]

Group 1: SPDR Gold ETF (2840) - The overall technical signals for SPDR Gold ETF (2840) are leaning towards "sell," with 9 sell signals and 4 buy signals, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [1][2] - There are 9 put options available in the market with a strike price around 2500 points, which is significantly lower than the current price, suggesting a potential downward movement [2] - Among the put options, one product has a relatively high leverage of approximately 13.2 times, with the lowest premium at about 18.5% and a low implied volatility of 23.7%, making it a favorable choice [2][3] Group 2: Li Auto (9863) - Li Auto's stock price has recently risen to 60 HKD, with some investors speculating it could challenge 70 HKD [5] - There are limited options available for investors, with only one suitable product expiring in December and another in March with a strike price of 111 HKD, which is considered too far out of the money [5][6] - For options closer to the current price, there is a product with a strike price of 68.8 HKD that offers a leverage of 2.2 times, making it a competitive choice [6] Group 3: Alibaba (9988) - Alibaba has a wide range of options available due to its popularity, with many call and put options in the market [7] - The support level for Alibaba is around 158 HKD, and if it breaks this level, it could drop to 144 HKD, suggesting that investors should consider options with a buyback price around 140 HKD [7][8] Group 4: China Resources Gas (01193) - China Resources Gas has shown a significant increase in price, reaching 21.6 HKD, with expectations of hitting 22 HKD [10] - There are two call options available with strike prices between 25.55 HKD and 26.8 HKD, both of which are considered out of the money [10] Group 5: Bilibili (09626) - Bilibili's stock price has reached 228 HKD, with potential to rise to 240 HKD if it breaks the resistance at 241 HKD [13] - There are two call options available with a strike price of 236 HKD, which are deemed reasonable given the current price [13] Group 6: China Life (2628) - China Life's stock price has been performing well, closing at 24.94 HKD, with a resistance level at 26.6 HKD [16][17] - There are several put options available with strike prices around 21.6 HKD, offering various leverage ratios and implied volatilities [17] Group 7: AAC Technologies (02018) - AAC Technologies' stock price has rebounded to 40.8 HKD, with some investors optimistic about reaching 50 HKD [20][21] - There are six call options available expiring in December, with leverage ratios between 3.2 and 3.4 times [21] Group 8: Giant Bio (2367) - Giant Bio's stock has seen a significant decline, dropping from 65.7 HKD to 39.22 HKD, leading to mixed investor sentiment [24][25] - There are currently no put options available, and the available call options have strike prices that are too far out of the money to be considered viable for short-term trading [25]

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index (恒指) rose by 611 points or 2.4%, closing at 25,858 points[1] - National Index (國指) increased by 220 points or 2.5%, closing at 9,232 points[1] - Hang Seng Tech Index (恒生科技指數) gained 172 points or 3%, closing at 5,933 points[1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 239.16 billion[1] Economic Indicators - Unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9% from June-August to July-September, exceeding market expectations[3] - China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, with a year-to-date growth of 5.2%[3] - Industrial production in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing expectations[3] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, contrary to the expected increase of 0.1%[3] Corporate Performance - JD.com (京東-SW) reported over 52,000 brands with sales growth exceeding 300% year-on-year, and AI-related products saw nearly 200% growth[4] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (寧德時代) achieved revenue of CNY 283.072 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%[4] - China Mobile (中國移動) reported revenue of CNY 794.7 billion for the first three quarters, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year[5]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock price has experienced a significant decline, closing at 45.96 HKD, down 3.65% in a single day, with a trading volume of 12.297 billion HKD, indicating active market pressure and speculation for a rebound [1] Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator for Xiaomi is at 28, indicating an oversold condition, while stochastic oscillators and bullish-bearish strength indicators have generated buy signals [1] - Despite some indicators suggesting a potential bottoming out, MACD and Bollinger Bands still maintain sell signals, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1] - The stock price has fallen below short- to medium-term moving averages, but there is still a 59% probability of a rebound, with resistance levels at 51.3 HKD and 56.5 HKD, and support at 43.9 HKD, with a critical level at 37.8 HKD if it breaks below [1] Product Performance - Recent recommendations for warrants and structured products have yielded significant returns, with the Morgan Stanley bear certificate (64525) rising 43% and UBS bear certificate (64218) increasing by 39% over two days, while the underlying stock fell by 7.11% [1] - In the warrants category, UBS put warrant (14200) rose by 30% and Bank of China put warrant (14387) increased by 25%, showcasing effective leverage despite the stock's decline [1] Investment Products - For call options, Citibank call warrant (16253) has a leverage of 3.2 times with an exercise price of 52.93 HKD, while Bank of China call warrant (16221) has a leverage of 3.1 times, both offering good value [3] - For put options, UBS put warrant (14200) and Bank of China put warrant (14387) have exercise prices of 46.45 HKD, with leverage of 3 times and 2.9 times respectively, suitable for conservative investors [3] - In the bull certificates category, UBS bull certificate (67402) has an exercise price of 42 HKD with a leverage of 9.4 times, while HSBC bull certificate (66931) also has an exercise price of 42 HKD with high leverage [3] - For bear certificates, the top picks are Societe Generale bear certificate (65365) and UBS bear certificate (67343), both with a redemption price of 54 HKD, offering leverage of 6.7 times and 6.5 times respectively [3]

Market Overview - The US stock market reached new highs, with the three major indices hitting record levels on the "quadruple witching day" [9] - Global equity funds attracted $68.4 billion, the highest since December of the previous year, with $57.7 billion flowing into US equity funds [11] - Emerging market funds saw inflows of $7.6 billion, marking the highest since May [11] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.147%, reflecting market concerns about inflation [9] - Gold prices strengthened, closing up 1.12% near the day's high [9] Investment Strategies - The report recommends prioritizing investments in leading companies within the "artificial intelligence and semiconductor" sectors due to the growing demand for AI [9] - For fixed income, it is suggested to reduce holdings in US Treasuries and shift towards investment-grade corporate bonds (IG) and floating-rate notes (FRN) [9] - A recommendation for structured products includes "dual-leverage linked notes" tied to major commodities (such as oil and copper) to capture price fluctuations [9] Company Highlights - Sanofi reported Q2 net sales of €9.994 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with earnings per share rising by 8.3% to €1.59 [24] - FedEx Corporation announced an increase in revenue and profit guidance for FY2026, driven by higher volume in its priority delivery service and cost-saving measures [25] - The report highlights the strong performance of the company 创科实业 (Techtronic Industries), which achieved a record revenue of $7.833 billion in H1 2025, with net profit growing to $628 million and a gross margin improvement to 40.3% [21] - 京东 (JD.com) has formed a strategic partnership with China Resources to open its first physical store in Hong Kong by 2026, focusing on international and mainland tech brands [13] Economic Data Releases - Key economic data releases include the M3 money supply in Switzerland, unemployment rate in Taiwan, and consumer price index in Hong Kong, all scheduled for September 22, 2025 [19]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has experienced significant volatility recently, with a 7.2% fluctuation over the past five days, indicating market uncertainty regarding its future performance [1]. Financial Performance Expectations - Xiaomi is set to announce its Q2 earnings on August 19, with net profit estimates ranging from 8.1 billion to 10.27 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.9% to 101.5% from 5.098 billion RMB [1]. - Revenue forecasts for Q2 are between 112.086 billion and 117.826 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.1% to 32.6% from 88.888 billion RMB [1]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - CCB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi, adjusting the target price slightly from 75.25 RMB to 74.4 RMB, citing attractive valuation after a 16% pullback from recent highs [1]. - JPMorgan has a "Neutral" rating, with a target price of 60 RMB, noting that Xiaomi's stock has underperformed the benchmark index amid expectations of slowing profits in its core smartphone and IoT businesses [1]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels for Xiaomi are at 51.4 RMB and 48.7 RMB, while resistance levels are at 55.8 RMB and 57.7 RMB [2]. - A "death cross" is anticipated as the 10-day moving average approaches the 30-day moving average, indicating potential bearish sentiment [2]. Derivative Products and Trading Strategies - HSBC's call option (18005) offers a leverage of 7 times with a strike price of 60.65 RMB, suitable for short-term traders [5]. - UBS's call option (14816) provides a slightly lower leverage of 6.9 times, appealing to medium-term investors [5]. - For bearish investors, the Barclays put option (17868) offers a leverage of 4.8 times with a strike price of 54 RMB, presenting a favorable risk-reward ratio [5]. Market Insights - Recent performance of derivative products linked to Xiaomi has shown significant gains, with HSBC's call option rising by 18% and UBS's call option increasing by 36% in a volatile market [10]. - The upcoming earnings announcement raises questions about whether to position in derivatives beforehand or wait for the results [12].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,906.81 points, up 0.19% for the day and up 24.16% year-to-date[6] - The total trading volume decreased by 2.8% to HKD 200.9 billion[8] - The US Dow Jones Index fell by 0.45% to 43,975 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 0.25% and 0.3% respectively[8] Company Performance - Kang Shifu Holdings reported a mid-term profit of RMB 2.271 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.46%[8] - Yuanyuan Group's mid-term profit attributable to shareholders was USD 171 million, down 7.16% year-on-year[8] - Tianqi Lithium Industries saw a stock increase of 18.2%, while Ganfeng Lithium rose by 20.9%[8] Economic Indicators - The automotive sales in China dropped nearly 11% month-on-month last month according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers[3] - The US two-year bond yield is currently at 3.7643%, down 12.07 basis points over the past month[23] Technical Analysis - The Hang Seng Index is currently lacking direction, with the market awaiting significant news, particularly regarding US-China trade negotiations[10] - Short-term index movements are expected to remain within the range of the 10-day and 20-day moving averages[10] Investment Recommendations - Nebius (NBIS.US) is highlighted for its strong growth potential in AI infrastructure, with a recommendation to buy at USD 65 and a target price of USD 75[14] - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) has a suggested buy price of HKD 480 and a target price of HKD 550, with a current price of HKD 554[12]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock has been underperforming due to a 3% quarter-over-quarter decline in overseas smartphone shipments and disappointing electronic consumer goods retail data, leading to a significant drop in stock price over the past two days [1]. Technical Analysis - The overall technical indicators for Xiaomi signal a "sell" with a strength of 13, indicating a bearish medium to long-term trend [1]. - Multiple moving averages are showing a "strong sell" signal, while several oscillators are in a neutral state, suggesting a potential for short-term oversold rebound [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43, indicating it is within a normal range [1]. - The system's assessed probability of an upward movement is 57%, with a recent 5-day price fluctuation of 7.7%, reflecting moderate volatility but clear short-term downward pressure [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level is at 53.7 HKD; if this level is breached, the next target is 52.1 HKD [3]. - The initial resistance level is at 57.6 HKD, and a breakthrough here would allow for a challenge of 60.5 HKD [3]. - The current stock price is positioned between the support and resistance levels, leaning towards the lower end, making the maintenance of the 53.7 HKD support critical for a potential short-term rebound [3]. Product Performance - Previously recommended leveraged products, such as the Societe Generale bear certificates (54560) and HSBC bear certificates (59572), showed significant gains of 48% and 54% respectively within two days [3]. - Other put options from JPMorgan and UBS also outperformed, with increases of 18% and 16%, significantly exceeding the underlying stock's decline of 3.66% [3]. Investment Products - For investors anticipating a short-term rebound, UBS call options (15800) offer a leverage of 8.1 times with a strike price of 63.05 HKD, while Bank of China call options (13385) provide a leverage of 8.4 times, presenting a better cost-performance ratio [6]. - For bearish investors, HSBC put options (14333) and Morgan Stanley put options (14322) offer a leverage of 3.5 times with a strike price of 46.45 HKD, suitable for those expecting significant downside [6]. Market Sentiment - Despite the bearish technical outlook for Xiaomi, the probability of an upward movement remains above 50%, indicating market divergence [12]. - The ability to hold the 53.7 HKD support level is crucial; a breakdown with increased volume could trigger further selling pressure, while support at this level could lead to a short-term rebound opportunity [12].