白羽鸡：虽然2024年祖代种鸡进口同比增加，但未恢复至引种中断前正常年份引种数量；预计2025年优 质父母代鸡苗需求较好；加之受海外引种大幅下降影响，2025年下半年父母代鸡苗供给将更紧，后续也 将影响2026年商品代鸡苗的供给。看好种禽端景气，重点推荐成本改善的一体化龙头企业圣农发展。 黄羽鸡：当前父母代种鸡存栏已降至历史偏低位水平，再加之行业亏损持续了一段时间，供给收缩为后 续鸡价上涨奠定基础。当前黄鸡养殖成本回落至低位，四季度需求有望支撑鸡价景气并带动盈利释放。 重点推荐立华股份。 后周期：需求边际修复，龙头海外维持高增 饲料方面，生猪养殖和禽养殖板块存栏逐步恢复，带动畜禽料需求明显修复，下游水产养殖端景气度回 升提振水产料需求。饲料需求整体呈现恢复趋势。展望25Q4，畜禽料需求景气有望持续，水产料需求 逐步步入淡季，龙头市占率有望继续提升。此外，龙头饲企海外扩张或打开成长空间。重点推荐海大集 团。 动保方面，受益于下游养殖端盈利持续，动保需求整体呈现恢复趋势，具备产品力优势的动保公司盈利 率先修复。展望25Q4，预计主要动保公司盈利端或呈改善趋势。标的选择方面，重点推荐科前生物， 建议关注生物股份、瑞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a stage of supply-demand negotiation, with supply pressures easing and demand expected to improve as the weather cools and the curing season approaches [1] Supply Side - Large-scale pig farms are advancing their slaughtering pace, leading to a relative easing of slaughter pressure, and they are generally adopting strategies to control supply and raise prices, with notable price increases for standard pigs [1] Demand Side - As the weather turns colder and the curing season arrives, demand for pork is anticipated to gradually improve [1] Industry Trends - Under the guidance of national policies, the main trend in the pig farming industry will be "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," leading to the gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [1] - High-quality production capacity with low costs and good financial conditions is expected to increase its market share [1] Investment Vehicle - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

11月20日，温氏股份跌0.63%，成交额3.59亿元。两融数据显示，当日温氏股份获融资买入额2671.21万 元，融资偿还3065.87万元，融资净买入-394.66万元。截至11月20日，温氏股份融资融券余额合计8.62 亿元。 融资方面，温氏股份当日融资买入2671.21万元。当前融资余额8.58亿元，占流通市值的0.74%，融资余 额低于近一年20%分位水平，处于低位。 截至9月30日，温氏股份股东户数8.11万，较上期减少10.94%；人均流通股73543股，较上期增加 12.11%。2025年1月-9月，温氏股份实现营业收入758.17亿元，同比增长0.53%；归母净利润52.56亿元， 同比减少17.98%。 分红方面，温氏股份A股上市后累计派现301.10亿元。近三年，累计派现69.35亿元。 融券方面，温氏股份11月20日融券偿还3.76万股，融券卖出500.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 8710.00元；融券余量23.82万股，融券余额414.94万元，低于近一年20%分位水平，处于低位。 资料显示，温氏食品集团股份有限公司位于广东省云浮市新兴县新城镇东堤北路9号，成立日期1993年 ...

南财投研通数据显示，11月20日，券商给予上市公司目标价共12次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排 名居前的公司有太辰光、中金公司、中国铁建，目标价涨幅分别为63.73%、61.08%、53.57%，分别属 于通信设备、证券、基础建设行业。 | | | | 11月20日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 嚴高目極价 | 目标涨幅 | | | | | | (元) | (%) | | 300570 | 太辰光 | 国泰海通证券 | 增持 | 149.21 | 63.73 | | 601995 | 中等公司 | 华泰证券 | 派 | 56.20 | 61.08 | | 601186 | 中国铁建 | 国泰海通证券 | 増持 | 12.04 | 53.57 | | 300347 | 泰格医药 | 国泰海通证券 | 增持 | 75.55 | 49.04 | | 300498 | 温氏股份 | 中国国际会融 | 跑赢行业 | 25.00 | 43.51 | | 600346 | 恒力石化 | 英创证券 ...

Core Insights - Guangdong Tiannong Group Co., Ltd. has officially submitted its application for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after two previous attempts were terminated within five years [1][2] - The company is known for its "King of Chickens," the Qingyuan chicken, which holds over 59% market share in its segment, but it faces significant challenges including reliance on the pig farming business [4][5] Company Overview - Tiannong Group's revenue structure shows over 60% dependence on pig farming, leading to performance fluctuations tied to both "pig cycles" and "chicken cycles" [4][9] - The company has experienced a dramatic shift in net profit over the past three years, from a peak of 890 million yuan to a loss of 670 million yuan [4][11] - The average selling price of Qingyuan chicken has decreased from 37.7 yuan per chicken in 2022 to 30.7 yuan in the first half of 2025, a decline of over 20% [8] Market Position - Tiannong Group ranks first in the Qingyuan chicken market with a market share of 59.3%, and it has developed a comprehensive supply chain involving over 4,000 poultry farmers [7][9] - The market size for Qingyuan chicken is projected to grow from 1.363 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.788 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 3.1 billion yuan by 2029 [7] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to reach 4.8 billion yuan in 2024, with pig farming revenue increasing from 2.587 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.203 billion yuan in 2024 [9] - Tiannong Group's pig farming gross margin is expected to be 470 yuan per pig in 2024, ranking second among large-scale farming enterprises [10] Governance and Capital Structure - The company exhibits a family governance structure, with the founders controlling approximately 52.28% of voting rights [13] - Tiannong Group has faced challenges in its capital journey, having attempted to list on the A-share market in 2020 and 2022, both of which were terminated [13][15] Debt and Financial Strategy - The company has a high debt ratio, with liabilities reaching approximately 1.334 billion yuan as of August 31, 2025, with 83.13% due within one year [15] - Recent capital operations, including share buybacks and debt management, indicate a strategic move to optimize its capital structure ahead of the IPO [15]

| 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 (元) | 成交量 (万股/万份) | 成交金额 买方营业部 (万元) | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-20 | 300498 | 温氏股份 | 14.02 | 16.05 | 225.02 中国中金财富证券 | 中国中金财富证券 | | | | | | | 有限公司云浮新兴 | 有限公司云浮新兴 | | | | | | | 东堤北路证券营业 | 东堤北路证券营业 | | | | | | | 部 | 高 | 11月20日，温氏股份大宗交易成交16.05万股，成交额225.02万元，占当日总成交额的0.62%，成交价 14.02元，较市场收盘价17.42元折价19.52%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Tiannong Group Co., Ltd., known as the "King of Qingyuan Chicken," has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming for a listing on the main board with the exclusive sponsorship of China Merchants Securities International [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tiannong Group was established in 2003 and has developed a vertically integrated operation covering breeding, farming, feed production, slaughter processing, and brand marketing, with core products including Qingyuan chicken, pigs, and related meat products [6][4]. - The company has successfully revitalized the Qingyuan chicken breed, achieving an annual output of over 32 million chickens, capturing more than 59% of the market share in this niche segment [4][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The financial data from 2022 to 2024 shows revenues of RMB 39.52 billion, RMB 35.96 billion, and RMB 47.76 billion, with a revenue of RMB 22.21 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year growth [14]. - Net profits fluctuated significantly, with a profit of RMB 3.41 billion in 2022, a loss of RMB 6.69 billion in 2023, a rebound to a profit of RMB 8.90 billion in 2024, and a net profit of RMB 1.27 billion in the first half of 2025, resulting in a net profit margin of 5.7% [14]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Tiannong Group's pig farming business has become the largest revenue source, with revenue contributions from pig products accounting for 65.5%, 61.6%, and 67.1% from 2022 to 2024, and 66.3% in the first half of 2025 [10][11]. - The company plans to use the funds raised from the IPO to focus on key areas such as processed meat products, offline dining services, and technological research and development, aiming to build a diversified consumption ecosystem [16]. Group 4: Governance and Management - The company exhibits a family governance model, with the founders controlling approximately 52.28% of the voting rights, and several family members holding key management positions [19][21]. - The management team includes Zhang Zhengfen and Xiao Wenqing, who are responsible for overall strategic planning and business development [19].

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Records Industry: Dairy Products - Liquid milk revenue has declined, with ambient yogurt significantly impacted by competition from tea beverages, but leading dairy companies have achieved slight growth in dairy drinks through product innovation and market expansion [1][2][3] - Solid dairy products show weak demand for cheese in the A-end, while B-end domestic alternatives are accelerating; milk powder demand is improving due to population growth [1][2] - The upstream raw milk supply is expected to reach a supply-demand balance by mid-2026, potentially leading to a rebound in milk prices, with large dairy companies benefiting from scale advantages [1][3] - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are expected to see a recovery in market share as their valuations are at a low point [3] Industry: Snack Foods - The snack food industry is experiencing slowed growth, with high raw material costs and intense competition; however, categories like konjac and bulk channels still show potential [4] - Recommended companies include Wei Long and Ximai Foods, which have advantages in multi-channel distribution and are positioned well in the konjac category [4] Industry: Seed Industry - The seed industry is anticipated to see a turnaround in the second half of 2026, with opportunities for investment in companies like Kangnong Seed, which has achieved growth through its flagship product [5] - The sales area for Kangnong's product is expected to exceed 10 million mu, indicating strong performance potential [5] Industry: Grain and Economic Crops - If grain prices rise in the second half of 2026, the industry may see improved conditions, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development showing significant earnings elasticity [6] - In the economic crop sector, companies involved in natural rubber and blueberry cultivation are highlighted for their growth potential [6] Industry: Agricultural Product Processing - The agricultural processing sector should focus on health-related investment opportunities, with companies like COFCO Sugar showing strong stock performance [7] - The tomato processing segment is showing signs of price stabilization, which could benefit companies like Guannong [7] Industry: Functional Food Ingredients - The functional food ingredients market is expected to grow significantly, driven by improvements in profitability and new product releases [8][9] Industry: Livestock and Poultry - The livestock industry is projected to bottom out and gradually recover, with recommendations for cost-leading companies like Wens Foodstuffs and DeKang Agriculture [10][12] - The pig market has seen price fluctuations, with expectations of continued pressure in early 2026 but potential recovery later in the year [11][12] Industry: Pet Food - The pet food sector has shown resilience, with domestic demand remaining strong and companies like Zhongchong and Guibao Pet Food achieving significant growth [15] Industry: Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is facing weak demand, but leading companies are gaining market share through innovation and new product development [16][20] - Companies like Hai Tian and Anjing Foods are highlighted for their strong performance despite industry challenges [21][22] Key Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies with strong growth potential in their respective sectors, such as Wei Long in snacks, Kangnong in seeds, and Anjing Foods in the restaurant supply chain [4][5][22]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tian Nong Group, is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, leveraging its dominance in the Qingyuan chicken market, while facing challenges due to its significant reliance on the pig farming business and family governance issues [1][2][10]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tian Nong Group specializes in raising Qingyuan chicken, holding over 59% market share in this niche [1][7]. - The company was founded by Zhang Zhengfen and her husband in 2003, focusing on the industrialization of Qingyuan chicken after reviving its breeding stock [3][4]. - The company has developed a comprehensive supply chain involving over 4,000 poultry farmers, transitioning traditional farming into a modern industrial model [7][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tian Nong Group's revenue reached 4.8 billion yuan in 2024, with over 60% derived from pig farming, indicating a dual reliance on both chicken and pig cycles [10][11]. - The company's net profit fluctuated significantly over the past three years, from a peak of 890 million yuan to a loss of 670 million yuan [2][12]. - The average selling price of Qingyuan chicken has decreased by over 20% from 2022 to 2025, impacting profit margins [8][12]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - The market for Qingyuan chicken is expected to grow from 1.363 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.788 billion yuan in 2024, with projections to exceed 3.1 billion yuan by 2029 [7]. - The company faces challenges from price volatility in both chicken and pig markets, which directly affects profitability [12][17]. - Tian Nong Group's governance structure is heavily family-oriented, with significant control held by the founding couple and their relatives [13][14]. Group 4: Debt and Capital Structure - The company has a high debt ratio, with liabilities reaching approximately 1.334 billion yuan, of which 83.13% is due within one year [17][18]. - Recent capital maneuvers include share buybacks and restructuring efforts aimed at optimizing the capital structure ahead of the IPO [16][18].

Company Dynamics - The company recently participated in the 10th anniversary event of its listing and invited management to the 2025 strategy meeting, where it communicated its medium to long-term development plans focused on "high-quality growth" and showcased its plans for livestock increment and overseas exploration [2]. Recent Developments - The company aims for a medium to long-term output target of 1.8 billion poultry, diversifying its product structure in pig farming, with a target of 5%-10% for piglet and black pig exports, and plans to establish "China's first black pig brand" [3]. - The company has completed an integrated layout of 50 million white feather chickens and plans to continue expanding its scale [3]. - The company is targeting Southeast Asia's meat consumption market, starting with exporting Chinese native chickens to Vietnam, with potential future expansions into pig and duck exports [3]. Quality Growth Initiatives - The company plans to increase technological investments to reduce costs in pig farming, with a goal of lowering comprehensive breeding costs to below 5 yuan per kilogram [3]. - The company aims to enhance its value chain by transitioning towards food ingredient and product businesses, with a target to increase the proportion of chicken slaughtering and deep processing from 18% to over 40%, aiming for a profit increase of over 2 yuan per chicken [3]. Social Responsibility and Ecosystem Development - Over the past decade, the company has generated over 86.7 billion yuan in cumulative income for cooperative farmers and plans to enhance farmer income through improved breeding batch scales and processes [4]. - Since its listing, the company has distributed 28.1 billion yuan in dividends, with an average payout ratio of 42%, indicating strong dividend potential in the new pig farming paradigm [4]. - The company plans to invest 1 billion yuan annually in building its industrial ecosystem, currently involving enterprises in breeding, equipment, and intelligent management [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast and an outperform rating for the industry, with projected P/E ratios of 19 and 12 for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]. - The target price is set at 25 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 26 and 17 for 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential upside of 43% [5].