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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the U.S. employment data and its implications for market sentiment, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and the impact on precious metals prices [2][3][25]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic indicators, including employment data, consumer confidence, and corporate earnings, have shown improvement, leading to speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][25]. - The July non-farm payrolls report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, with prior months' figures also revised downwards, raising concerns about the reliability of U.S. employment data [2][25]. Market Sentiment - The market has begun to recognize the fragility of the U.S. employment situation, likening it to "the emperor's new clothes," which may lead to increased calls for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][26]. - Following the disappointing employment data, U.S. stock markets experienced a decline, which may be a temporary technical adjustment rather than a long-term trend [3][26]. Precious Metals Market - The article highlights the recent changes in managed positions for precious metals in the U.S. futures market, indicating a decrease in net long positions for gold and silver, while platinum saw a slight increase [5][9]. - As of July 29, net long positions for gold fell by 16.4% to 444 tons, marking the lowest level in three weeks, while silver's net long positions decreased by 3.6% to 6,786 tons [5][9]. - The correlation between gold and silver prices remains strong, with silver experiencing a more volatile market response compared to gold [9][12]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, with significant probabilities assigned to rate cuts in September, October, and December [3][25][24]. - The article suggests that if the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates but inflation pressures resurface, it will pose a significant challenge for future monetary policy [27]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-to-mining stock ratio as a forward-looking indicator for gold prices, suggesting that if gold prices rise while mining stocks decline, it may signal caution for investors [19][26]. - The gold-silver ratio, which measures market sentiment, has shown a rebound, indicating heightened risk awareness among investors [21][23].

[Applause] Food is one of the most beautiful parts of our life and one of the most powerful vehicles for change in our world. But we find ourselves at a fundamental turning point in human history, a fork in the road. And we have two options to pursue with regards to how we grow our food, what we grow, and the systems we grow our food within.Here's our choice. Option one is to continue with the current industrialized food system. In this system, we tear down all the trees.We grow one type of crop as far as t ...

Summary of Southbound Trading Tracking for China/Hong Kong Consumer Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China/Hong Kong Consumer** sector, specifically analyzing **Southbound trading** trends for major HK-listed consumer stocks during July 2025 and year-to-date (YTD) 2025. Key Findings 1. **Overall Trends in July 2025** - Average Southbound holdings as a percentage of free float increased by **0.8 percentage points (ppt)** month-over-month (MoM) for the **66 major HK-listed consumer stocks** eligible for Connect trading, with **35 under coverage** [1][6] 2. **Year-to-Date Performance** - Average net flows from Southbound trading were up **3.6%** compared to the end of 2024 [2][6] - A total of **41 stocks** recorded inflows, while **25 stocks** experienced outflows, and none showed zero net flows [3][6] 3. **Inflows and Outflows in July** - **27 stocks** recorded inflows, **38 stocks** recorded outflows, and **1 stock** showed zero net flows [2][6] - **Top five stocks with inflows**: - CR Beverage: **20.8ppt** increase - Xiaocaiyuan: **15.2ppt** - Chervon: **9.5ppt** - H&H: **7.3ppt** - Tianli Education: **5.9ppt** [9][10] - **Top five stocks with outflows**: - Jiumaojiu: **-5.0ppt** - CR Beer: **-3.7ppt** - Popmart: **-3.2ppt** - Xtep: **-2.9ppt** - Samsonite: **-2.8ppt** [9][10] 4. **Category Performance** - Various categories such as **Beer, Apparel & Sportswear, Agriculture, Gold, Home Appliance, Home Improvement, Toys, Education, and Luggage** experienced average inflows during July [9][10] - Categories like **Beer, HPC, Home Appliances, Home Improvement, Education, and Luggage** recorded outflows YTD 2025, while other categories had average inflows [9][10] 5. **Detailed Stock Performance** - The report includes detailed statistics on Southbound stakes as a percentage of free float for various companies, highlighting significant changes in investor interest [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring Southbound trading trends as they reflect investor sentiment and potential shifts in market dynamics within the consumer sector in Hong Kong and China [6][7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas "rate - cut trading" is heating up, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in September reaching 94%. The dollar index has fallen, and the prices of gold, silver, and copper have rebounded, while OPEC+ production increases have pressured oil prices down. In China, the economy is in a weak recovery, the A - share market has risen with reduced trading volume, and the bond market has shown differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals, copper, and nickel are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts; the prices of aluminum, lead, tin, and industrial silicon face downward pressure due to factors such as inventory increases and weak demand; the price of lithium carbonate is in a state of multi - factor entanglement and fluctuates; the price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors and may fluctuate; the prices of steel products and iron ore are expected to fluctuate; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate upward, and the price of palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][6][8][11][13][15][16][19][21][22][23][25] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Variety Views Macro - Overseas: Fed official Daly signaled a dovish stance. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September reached 94%, and the market expected three rate cuts this year. The dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.18%, and the U.S. stock market rebounded nearly 2%. The prices of gold, silver, and copper rebounded, while oil prices fell due to OPEC+ production increases. The reciprocal tariff 2.0 game is in the second half [2]. - Domestic: The economy is in a weak recovery. The A - share market rose with reduced trading volume, and the bond market showed differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - After the U.S. non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September soared, boosting precious metal prices. Trump's tariff increase measures also increased inflation expectations and risk aversion, further boosting the price of gold. The short - term focus is on the resistance of the international gold price at $3450 per ounce, and the silver price may rebound more strongly after a significant correction [4][5]. Copper - Fed official Daly's dovish remarks and Trump's possible appointment of new Fed officials have increased the expectation of rate cuts, boosting market risk appetite and weakening the dollar index, which is beneficial to the metal market. The Skouries copper - gold project in Greece is expected to start production in early 2026, with an annual copper output of about 30,000 tons. It is expected that the Shanghai copper price will enter a rebound rhythm [6][7]. Aluminum - The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the U.S. for 6 months. Trump adjusted the tariff rates, and the average U.S. tariff reached 18.3%. The social inventory of aluminum continued to increase this week, and the spot market transaction premium continued to decline slightly. Macro and fundamental pressures have increased, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust [8]. Alumina - The futures price of alumina rose slightly. The futures spread structure is conducive to long - position roll - over, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The fundamental situation shows that the warehouse receipt inventory has not increased, the spot price is firm, and consumption is stable. It is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate [9]. Zinc - The EU's suspension of trade counter - measures against the U.S. and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September have improved market risk appetite, and the zinc price has moved up slightly. However, the inventory continues to increase slightly, and the supply - demand pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Lead - The lead price has fallen significantly, and the downstream consumption improvement is insufficient. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead is expected to recover, and the lead price will maintain a weak - side shock [11]. Tin - The operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises has recovered, but the supply of tin ore and waste tin is still tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The social inventory has risen above 10,000 tons. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon continued to decline. The supply is still shrinking, and the demand in the photovoltaic market is weak. The social inventory has increased, and the spot market price has been pressured. It is expected that the futures price will continue to adjust in the short term [14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. The supply side was affected by the suspension of a lithium mine project in Nigeria and the successful commissioning of a lithium carbonate project in Sichuan. The policy is in a state of correction, and the market fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate [16][17]. Nickel - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, and the dollar index has fallen, pushing up the nickel price. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron has increased, but the cost pressure remains. The spot trading of pure nickel is okay. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate under the influence of repeated macro - expectations [18]. Crude Oil - U.S. economic data is lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Geopolitical factors focus on U.S. sanctions against Russia, with the deadline on August 8th. If sanctions are implemented, oil prices may rise; otherwise, they may give back previous gains. In the short term, the oil market outlook is unclear, and it is advisable to wait and see [19]. Steel Products - The futures prices of steel products fluctuated. The fifth round of coke price increases was fully implemented. The production of five major steel products remained stable, the apparent demand weakened significantly, and the inventory increased significantly. With the approaching of the military parade production restrictions in the north in mid - August, the supply contraction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. Iron Ore - The futures price of iron ore fluctuated and rebounded. Overseas shipments decreased this week, while arrivals increased, and supply remained stable. The daily average pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [22]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans is 69%, at a relatively high level in the same period. The future precipitation in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is slightly lower than the average, with limited short - term impact. The domestic soybean purchase rhythm in the fourth quarter is slow, and the tight supply expectation may intensify. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate upward [23][24]. Palm Oil - The market expects the inventory of Malaysian palm oil to increase in July. India's palm oil imports in July decreased, while soybean oil imports increased. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the palm oil price may fluctuate and adjust [25][27] 2. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on August 4th, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, steel products, iron ore, etc. [28] 3. Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals from August 1st to August 4th, including futures prices, spot prices, inventory levels, and basis [29][30][31]

Farmers will soon start feeling the impact from President Donald Trump’s tariffs in the form of higher prices for the machines used to plant, treat and harvest fields. https://t.co/z4MYtwgzdt ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current sentiment and positioning of funds in the U.S. precious metals futures market, highlighting a shift towards net long positions in gold and silver while palladium remains in a prolonged net short position [1][2][8]. Group 1: Fund Positioning in Precious Metals - As of last Tuesday, net long positions in U.S. precious metals futures have increased due to a reduction in short positions, with gold reaching a net long of 531 tons, the highest in 16 weeks, and silver at 7,039 tons, the highest in three weeks [2][7]. - The gold fund's long positions increased by 15% week-on-week, while short positions decreased by 3%, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [7]. - The palladium fund remains in a net short position of 8 tons, marking the highest level of net short positions in 38 weeks, and has been in a net short position for 134 consecutive weeks [8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Recent improvements in U.S. economic indicators, such as employment data and consumer confidence, have led to a rise in risk appetite among investors, favoring investments in silver, platinum, and digital currencies [2][27]. - The market currently estimates a 34.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on September 17, with expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year [24][27]. - The article notes that inflation data is beginning to rise, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [27][30]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The gold price has accumulated a 30.7% increase year-to-date, while silver prices have risen by 36.0% during the same period [7][11]. - The article highlights a significant divergence in performance between gold and silver, with the gold-to-silver ratio indicating market sentiment, currently at 87.465, reflecting a high level of risk aversion [22][23]. - The article suggests that if gold prices continue to rise while mining stocks decline, it may signal caution for investors [21].

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