Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report views sugar bullishly but advises against chasing the upward trend [3][4]. 2. Core View - Sugar should be viewed bullishly, but it's not advisable to chase the upward trend. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in China, while there is a temporary supply tightness in Brazil. The 01 contract may experience a tail - end rally, and it can be operated strongly when it pulls back to the previous low [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Basis - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6050 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 367 yuan/ton; in Kunming, it's 5840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the basis is 257 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; in Dali, it's 5725 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, and the basis is 182 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the basis is 307 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [4]. - SR09 is at 5686 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; SR01 is at 5628 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 55 yuan, down 4 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.207, up 0.0105; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The ICE raw sugar主力 is at 16.09 with no change; the London white sugar主力 is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is at 67.68 with no change [4].

Group 1 - WTI September crude oil futures closed down by $0.74, a decline of nearly 1.06%, settling at $69.26 per barrel, moving away from the highest closing price since June 20 [1] - In July, WTI crude oil prices increased by over 8.47% [1] - NYMEX September natural gas futures settled at $3.1060 per million British thermal units [1] Group 2 - NYMEX August gasoline futures closed at $2.2156 per gallon, while NYMEX August heating oil futures settled at $2.3995 per gallon [1] - In July, ICE UK natural gas futures rose by 7.19%, showing an overall N-shaped trend [1] - TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures increased by 2.37%, and ICE EU carbon emission trading allowances (futures prices) rose by 6.04% [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.82%, closing at 29.4785 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 1.37%, settling at $4.1325 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures remained relatively stable, priced at $5.3825 per bushel [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 0.93%, ending at $10.1150 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures decreased by 0.78%, while soybean oil futures increased by 0.07% [1]

Core Insights - The global oilseed market may be undergoing a structural shift, with Brazil's soybean production unable to meet China's annual demand, leading to the initiation of a "high-temperature pricing" model [1] - The next price point for U.S. soybeans is uncertain, with speculation on whether it will reach $10 or $11 per bushel [1] Group 1 - Brazil's soybean supply is insufficient to cover China's full-year demand, indicating a potential supply gap in the market [1] - The introduction of a "high-temperature pricing" model suggests a new pricing strategy in response to market conditions [1] Group 2 - The price trajectory for U.S. soybeans remains uncertain, with market participants closely monitoring developments to determine if prices will stabilize at $10 or rise to $11 per bushel [1]

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have declined following Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper products, which may lead to a widening price gap between COMEX and LME to $3,000 per ton [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The announcement of tariffs is expected to significantly affect copper prices, leading to potential volatility in the market [1] - The widening price gap between COMEX and LME could create trading opportunities for investors [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of copper prices remains uncertain, influenced by geopolitical factors and trade policies [1]

Core Insights - WTI crude oil futures for August settled at $67.93 per barrel [1] - NYMEX natural gas futures for August closed at $3.4120 per million British thermal units [1] - NYMEX gasoline futures for August ended at $2.1522 per gallon, while heating oil futures for August settled at $2.4211 per gallon [1]

Group 1 - WTI August crude oil futures closed at $68.51 per barrel [1] - NYMEX July natural gas futures closed at $3.6980 per million British thermal units [1] - NYMEX July gasoline futures closed at $2.2182 per gallon [1] - NYMEX July heating oil futures closed at $2.3631 per gallon [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.24% to 31.3244 points, indicating a positive trend in grain prices as of June 17, with significant gains observed in various futures markets [1] Group 1: Grain Market Performance - CBOT corn futures rose by 0.86%, reaching $4.3875 per bushel, reflecting a stable demand in the corn market [1] - CBOT wheat futures experienced a notable increase of 2.44%, priced at $5.6575 per bushel, suggesting strong market conditions for wheat [1] - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.71%, now at $10.68 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 0.84%. However, soybean oil futures declined by 0.40% after a significant rise of 8.77% on the previous day, indicating volatility in the soybean complex [1]

Group 1: Coal Market Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a seasonal demand window, with daily consumption at 4.85 million tons as of June 5, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.5% [1] - The inventory available for use is at 24.4 days, down by 1.6 days week-on-week, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is at 609 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.3% [1] - There is a concern about the possibility of a weak peak season due to increased rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, which could enhance hydropower output [1][12] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism meeting from June 8 to 13 is crucial for assessing future trade dynamics, particularly regarding the 10% baseline tariff and semiconductor export restrictions [2][8] - The sensitivity of the commodity market to these discussions is high, especially for shipping and crude oil sectors [2][8] - The potential for a thaw in U.S.-China relations could lead to a rebound in previously declining commodities such as energy and chemicals [8] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [9][10] - Wage growth is at 3.9% year-on-year, indicating sustained consumer strength, but the overall economic outlook remains cautious due to downward revisions of previous employment data [9][10] - The interplay between rising import prices and wage growth may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy flexibility, impacting both equity and commodity markets [10][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is witnessing independent pricing dynamics, with pork prices exceeding 14 RMB/kg and Brazilian soybean prices rebounding [3][16] - The soybean market is currently in a critical growth season, with no immediate weather threats in the U.S. Midwest, suggesting limited upward pressure on prices [16] - The recent performance of soybean meal is driven by rising CNF prices from Brazil, supported by speculative buying from domestic oil mills [16] Group 5: Precious Metals - Silver is positioned for potential gains due to its dual industrial and monetary attributes, with supply constraints and demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [3] - The gold-silver ratio may continue to improve, but fiscal risks remain unresolved, keeping gold as a primary safe haven [3]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell by 2.25% in May, closing at 30.72 points on May 30, after reaching a low of 30.25 points on May 13, indicating a period of low volatility [1] - CBOT corn futures decreased by 6.73%, settling at $4.43 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 0.42%, reaching $5.33 per bushel [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.22%, closing at $10.42 per bushel, with a peak of $10.82 on May 14 [1] - Soymeal futures fell by 0.80%, while soybean oil futures dropped by 2.07% [1] - ICE raw sugar futures decreased by 2.06%, and ICE white sugar futures fell by 3.08% [1] Group 3 - ICE Arabica coffee futures experienced a significant decline of 17.26%, while coffee "C" futures dropped by 14.61% [1] - Robusta coffee futures fell by 16.09% [1] - New York cocoa futures rose by 9.79%, closing at $9,757 per ton, after peaking at $11,280 on May 20 [1] Group 4 - London cocoa futures increased by 2.41% [1] - ICE cotton futures decreased by 1.41% [1]