原糖期货迈向连续第四日下跌，为约两个月来最长跌势，此前主要生产国印度表示本季可能超额出口。 纽约最活跃合约一度下跌2.5%，至每磅14.39美分，创近五周新低。印度上月宣布本季将允许出口150万 吨糖以缓解国内过剩。周四，印度食品部长Sanjeev Chopra表示，政府可能批准额外出口以进一步削减 库存，同时称正考虑提高最低销售价格。 印度糖业与生物能源制造商协会数据显示，该国10月1日至12月15日期间的糖产量较上年同期增长170万 吨，增幅近28%。该数据与美国农业部预测相符，该机构预计2025-26作物年度印度产量将增长26%，主 因是"气候条件有利且种植面积扩大"。此前该国收成曾受厄尔尼诺气候现象的负面影响。 纽约最活跃合约一度下跌2.5%，至每磅14.39美分，创近五周新低。印度上月宣布本季将允许出口150万 吨糖以缓解国内过剩。周四，印度食品部长Sanjeev Chopra表示，政府可能批准额外出口以进一步削减 库存，同时称正考虑提高最低销售价格。 价格： 截至发稿，原糖期货下跌2.2%，报每磅14.44美分；伦敦白糖下跌1.4%。 其他大宗商品方面，纽约可可期货下跌0.20%，阿拉比卡咖啡也小 ...

（来源：沐甜科技） 郑糖05合约夜盘下跌1元/吨，收于5132元/吨。现货方面，广西集团报价为5310至5410元/吨，云南集团 报价为5180至5300元/吨，加工糖厂报价为5670至5900元/吨，糖厂下调20-30元不等，市场随采随用。现 货价格不断下调，01产业接货和交货意愿均偏低，低价下的现货市场活力不足。郑糖日盘增仓下行，净 空头席位加仓明显，昨日主力合约增仓近5.2万手，低点不断下破，最低触及5124，反应增产压力，关 注加速下破后的市场情绪。 05合约日内参考区间 5100-5160 2、巴西：11月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为1599万吨，同比减少21.08%；产糖量为72.4万 吨，同比减少32.94%。截至11月下半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为5.92亿吨，同比下降 1.92%；制糖比为51.12%，较去年同期的48.34%增加2.78%；产糖量为3990.4万吨，同比增幅为1.13%。 市场分析： ICE原糖03合约下跌8个点，收于14.85美分/磅；伦敦白糖03合约下跌2.4美元，收于423.8美元/吨。巴西 进入榨季末期，丰产充分计价。昨夜公布11月下半月生产数据，双周 ...

市场分析： （来源：沐甜科技） 来源：沐甜科技 产业动态 1、巴西：巴西11月出口糖和糖蜜330.23万吨，较去年同期的339.02万吨减少8.79万吨，降幅2.59%。 2、中国：根据商务部，2025年11月上半月关税配额外原糖实际到港11.45万吨，11月预报到港36.35万 吨。 ICE原糖03合约上涨1个点，收于14.83美分/磅；伦敦白糖03合约下跌2.9美元，收于422.8美元/吨。原糖 基本面未有明显变化，巴西进入榨季末期，丰产充分计价。北半球开榨前期的产量增幅符合市场预期， 目前价格无法吸引印度出口。原糖走入寻底的区间震荡格局，等待贸易流的新变量刺激。 郑糖01合约夜盘上涨2元/吨，收于5339元/吨。05合约下跌1元/吨，收于5243元/吨。现货方面，广西集 团报价为5390至5490元/吨，云南集团报价为5250至5410元/吨，加工糖厂报价为5700至5900元/吨，报价 与前日基本持平，以刚需采买为主。01超跌反弹，虚实盘比仍偏高，盘中出现部分多头买盘，产业开始 有部分接货需求出现，空头减仓。短期需观察01产业接货和交货意愿，以及反弹后的现货购销情况，05 资金净空头抑制05上方空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The New York raw sugar futures prices have fallen to their lowest level in five years due to rising expectations of global supply surplus, with a significant drop of 14% so far this month, potentially marking the largest monthly decline since December 2023 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The most active raw sugar futures contract dropped by 2.43%, closing at 14.07 cents per pound [1] - Analysts from StoneX Group Inc. indicate that the significant drop in October highlights "structural major pressure" on futures prices, driven by an anticipated surplus of 2.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season [1] - Following Brazil's "Sugar Week," market estimates for the 2025/26 sugar supply surplus have been raised from an initial consensus of 2 million tons to 2.77 million tons, with potential for further upward adjustments [4] Group 2: Supply Factors - Wall Street analysts expect Brazil, a leading sugar producer, to maintain high sugar production levels in 2025/26, with multiple investment institutions raising their production and export forecasts for Brazil [4] - The core drivers of the anticipated surplus include increased production in Brazil, rising corn ethanol output, and India's potential recovery in sugar exports, which may exceed StoneX's current estimate of 1.5 million tons [4] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The rapid rise in the penetration of GLP-1 weight loss drugs in the U.S. is impacting sugar consumption, with surveys indicating a reduction in spending on sugary products by approximately 6% to 10%, thereby lowering marginal demand growth expectations [5] - The volatility of the USD/BRL exchange rate has also affected Brazil's export rhythm, with a weaker BRL favoring exports and further pressuring prices [5] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown is contributing to traders' pessimism regarding the commodity market, as the CFTC has been unable to release data on large institutional investors and speculators since September 23 [5] - Recent price movements show a decline in New York raw sugar futures by 1.32%, with prices reported at 14.23 cents per pound, while London white sugar prices fell by 1.08% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the high import volume in China in August and the significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price broke through the support level and declined. The general direction of the sugar price remains bearish. However, considering the abnormal surge in short - term positions and trading volume, there is a possibility of a short - term rebound, so cautious trading is recommended [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: - **External Market**: The price of raw sugar declined this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 16.18 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.35 cents per pound or 2.12% from the previous week. The raw sugar 3 - 5 spread fluctuated at 0.41 cents per pound, up 0.01 cents per pound from the previous week. The London white sugar 3 - 5 spread weakened to 0.4 dollars per ton, down 0.4 dollars per ton from the previous week. The raw - white spread of the March contract fluctuated at 93 dollars per ton, up 2 dollars per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Domestic Market**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar declined this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5461 yuan per ton, a decrease of 79 yuan per ton or 1.43% from the previous week. The spot price in Guangxi was 5840 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis fluctuated at 379 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton from the previous week. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated at 15 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The profit from spot imports after quota increased to 426 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry News**: - In the second half of August, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. The sugar production in this region was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [9]. - In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons year - on - year. From January to August 2025, China imported 2.612 million tons of sugar, an increase of 121,000 tons year - on - year [9]. - **View and Strategy**: The general direction of the sugar price remains bearish. But due to the abnormal surge in short - term positions and trading volume, there may be a short - term rebound. It is recommended to trade cautiously. The trading strategy is to short at high prices, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle within 3 months, and the core driving logic being high import supply pressure and the expectation of increased production in the new crushing season. The recommendation level is 3, and it was first proposed on August 16, 2025 [9][11]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratio fluctuations. These charts cover various time periods from 2021 to 2026, showing the trends of different spreads such as the basis between Guangxi Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar futures, the spreads between different contract months of Zhengzhou sugar, and the spreads between raw sugar and white sugar [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [41]. - **Imports**: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder in China from 2021 to 2025 [44]. - **Sales**: The monthly and cumulative sugar sales volumes and sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown [49]. - **Industrial Inventory**: The monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses are presented [52]. 3.4. International Market Situation - **Brazil Central - Southern Production**: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 [57]. - **India Production**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented [62]. - **Thailand Production**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown [65]. - **Brazil Shipment**: The sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 are presented [68].

Group 1 - Concerns are rising over potential supply tightness due to reduced sugarcane production in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, leading to a third consecutive day of rising New York raw sugar futures prices, marking the longest streak since February 21 [1] - The projected sugar production in Brazil for the 2025-26 season is expected to fall to a range of 39 to 40 million tons, down from the previously anticipated 41 million tons, primarily due to widespread drought affecting early crop growth [1] - Current market prices are also supported by physical procurement demand from Pakistan, while India's sugar export policy for the 2024-25 season is under scrutiny, with the export window closing on September 30 and new season exports not expected to start until February next year, indicating potential short-term trade tightness [1] Group 2 - As of August 31, Brazil's sugar inventory stood at 9.3 million tons, an 8% decrease from 10.1 million tons in the same period last year, indicating no surplus in the current sugar stock [1] - For sustained upward momentum in sugar prices, the market requires clear evidence that Brazil's actual production is significantly lower than the current data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring weather changes and crop growth progress in production areas, as any signals of lower-than-expected yields could exacerbate price volatility [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report views sugar bullishly but advises against chasing the upward trend [3][4]. 2. Core View - Sugar should be viewed bullishly, but it's not advisable to chase the upward trend. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in China, while there is a temporary supply tightness in Brazil. The 01 contract may experience a tail - end rally, and it can be operated strongly when it pulls back to the previous low [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Basis - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6050 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 367 yuan/ton; in Kunming, it's 5840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the basis is 257 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; in Dali, it's 5725 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, and the basis is 182 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the basis is 307 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [4]. - SR09 is at 5686 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; SR01 is at 5628 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 55 yuan, down 4 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.207, up 0.0105; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The ICE raw sugar主力 is at 16.09 with no change; the London white sugar主力 is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is at 67.68 with no change [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [3][4] 2. Core View - Zheng sugar is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as the expected increase in global sugar supply, upcoming imports in China, and the impact of low - cost substitutes [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Price Data - On June 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6130 yuan/ton, in Kunming was 5835 yuan/ton, in Dali, Yunnan was 5780 yuan/ton, and in Rizhao, Shandong was 6185 yuan/ton [4] - SR09 futures price was 5667 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan, and SR01 was 5539 yuan/ton with an increase of 6 yuan [4] - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.2035 with an increase of 0.0040, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818 with an increase of 0.0212, and the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084 with a decrease of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar's main contract was 16.54, the price of London white sugar's main contract was 573 with an increase of 3, and the price of Brent crude oil's main contract was 75.18 [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - The sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of April 2025 increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio remained high. The expected sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season may reach 42 million tons, indicating a strong global supply - surplus pattern [4] - The previous drop of ICE raw sugar below 18 cents per pound triggered Chinese sugar purchases. The near - month purchase volume exceeded one million tons, and imported sugar is expected to arrive in China from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter [4] - The cost of imported sugar from Brazil after out - of - quota was reduced to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot prices narrowed to 150 yuan/ton, which stimulated subsequent purchases [4] - From January to March, the import of syrups and premixes was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes continued to squeeze the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to remain volatile and weak due to factors such as increased global sugar supply, upcoming imports, narrowed price differences between domestic and imported sugar, and the impact of low - cost substitutes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Domestic Sugar Spot and Futures Prices - Domestic sugar spot prices in different regions on May 20, 2025: Nanning warehouse in Guangxi was 6220 yuan/ton, Kunming in Yunnan was 5985 yuan/ton, Dali in Yunnan was 5915 yuan/ton, and Rizhao in Shandong was 6270 yuan/ton [4]. - Futures prices: SR09 was 5849 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; SR01 was 5710 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SR09 - 01 was 139 [4]. Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - Exchange rates on May 20, 2025: RMB to USD was 7.2346, up 0.0080; Brazilian real to RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; Indian rupee to RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - International commodity prices: ICE raw sugar主力 was 17.48, unchanged; London white sugar主力 was 573, up 3; Brent crude oil主力 was 65.48, unchanged [4]. Supply - side Factors - Brazil's central - southern region: In the second half of April, the sugarcane crushing volume increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio remained high. The expected sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season may reach 42 million tons, strengthening the pattern of loose global supply [4]. - Imports: The earlier drop of ICE raw sugar below 18 cents/pound triggered domestic sugar purchases. The near - month purchase volume exceeded one million tons, and imported sugar is expected to arrive at ports from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter. The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot prices narrowed to 150 yuan/ton, stimulating subsequent purchases [4]. - Substitutes: From January to March, the import of syrups and premixes was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes continued to squeeze the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4].