Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - August 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting recent trends in commodity prices and demand dynamics. Key Points Demand and Supply Dynamics - End-user orderbooks remained stable month-over-month (MoM) as of mid-August, indicating a lack of inspiring demand, particularly in infrastructure and renewables sectors [1] - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is estimated to be **3-7% lower year-over-year (YoY)**, while demand for copper and aluminum is **6-11% lower YoY**. Flat steel demand has increased by **5% YoY** [1] - The average prices of main commodities have increased by **2-13% sequentially** in August, marking the first broad price hikes since April 2021 [1] Price Trends - Significant price increases were noted in **lithium** and **met coal**, leading the price hikes in upstream commodities [1] - Improved margins in steel have delayed production cuts, while higher lithium prices are expected to enhance global supply flexibility [1] Supply Policies - New safety standards and controls on coal overproduction are being implemented, along with proposed technical specifications for monitoring cement production and clean-ups in lithium mining licenses [1] - Supply policies are still in early stages but indicate a positive direction for the industry [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicated that **26%** of respondents in downstream sectors reported a MoM increase in orders, while **31%** in basic materials reported the same. Conversely, **17%** and **16%** indicated a lower MoM trend [2] Margins and Pricing Stability - Recent weeks have shown improved margins/pricing for steel, coal, and lithium, while cement, aluminum, and copper prices have remained mostly stable [1] Additional Insights - The report suggests that the current trends in the basic materials sector are influenced by both domestic demand fluctuations and regulatory changes aimed at stabilizing supply and prices [1][2] - The stability in downstream order books, despite the overall weak demand, may indicate a cautious optimism among producers regarding future market conditions [2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the August 2025 China Basic Materials Monitor, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the industry and its future outlook.

BlueScope Steel’s full-year underlying profit falls 51%, as a surplus of global steel capacity continued to weigh on prices and higher costs ate into margins https://t.co/AmGZSZVgrH ...

Trade Agreement - UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a trade deal with US President Donald Trump [1] - The deal includes a reduction in US tariffs on British steel to zero [1] Industry Impact - The announcement was made at a Jaguar Land Rover factory [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu steel plate market experienced a pattern of "initial rise followed by stability, with a tendency to weaken" during the week of August 12-16, influenced by fluctuations in the futures market and changes in terminal demand [1] Price Trend Analysis by Product Type - **Rebar**: Prices slightly decreased due to weak futures market impact, with HRB400E Ф20mm rebar priced at 3370 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton from the beginning of the week. Demand remained weak, focusing mainly on essential orders [4] - **Medium and Heavy Plates**: Prices remained stable but showed signs of weakness, with mainstream Q235B plates priced at 5240 CNY/ton. Inventory levels were around 83,800 tons, slightly down from the previous week, indicating slow inventory turnover [4] - **Low Alloy High Strength Plates**: Prices remained stable, with Q460C plates priced at 4190 CNY/ton. However, market demand was weak, leading to poor overall sales [5] - **Stainless Steel Plates**: Prices for 316L/NO.1 stainless steel plates remained at 28700 CNY/ton, with limited market improvement and a prevailing wait-and-see attitude among buyers [6] Market Dynamics Analysis - **Futures Market Impact**: The black futures market showed weak fluctuations, directly affecting the sentiment in the spot market, leading to reduced purchasing plans from end-users [7] - **Supply and Demand Imbalance**: Demand recovery in downstream infrastructure and real estate sectors was below expectations, with purchases mainly consisting of sporadic orders. Despite some production cuts from steel mills, overall inventory levels remained high, making it difficult to resolve supply-demand conflicts in the short term [7] - **Weakening Cost Support**: Prices for raw materials like iron ore and coke slightly declined, reducing cost support for steel prices, which increased downward pressure on steel prices amid bearish market sentiment [8] Behavior of Steel Mills and Traders - **Steel Mill Pricing Strategies**: Mainstream steel mills adjusted their ex-factory prices in line with market fluctuations, with some adopting flexible pricing models to encourage transactions, keeping adjustments within 20 CNY/ton [9] - **Trader Operations**: Most traders focused on reducing inventory, leading to noticeable price reductions. Some traders attempted to attract customers through discount promotions and increased financing services, but with limited success [9] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - **Short-term Forecast**: The Chengdu steel plate market is expected to continue a weak and fluctuating trend in the coming week, with no significant positive stimuli for demand and uncertainty in futures trends, leading to potential further slight price reductions of 20-30 CNY/ton [10]

Safety Incident - U S Steel 报告称，本周早些时候，其一家工厂发生的致命爆炸事故可能发生在为计划维护准备而冲洗气体阀门时 [1]

Safety Incident - US Steel's Clairton Coke Works facility in Pennsylvania experienced a fatal blast, resulting in two worker deaths [1] - The incident occurred during the flushing of a gas valve in preparation for planned maintenance [1]

setting tariffs uh next week and the week after on steel and on chips and semiconductors. We have hundreds of factories all over the country and that includes auto factories, AI factories. If they don't open here, they have to make in some cases 200% 300%.I haven't even set some of the tariffs. ...

Core Insights - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reached new record highs, driven by UnitedHealth Group's significant stock gain following Berkshire Hathaway's investment [1][4]. Company Insights - UnitedHealth shares surged over 9% at market open, marking the largest single-day gain since November 4, 2020, when it rose by 10.3% [4]. - Berkshire Hathaway acquired more than 5 million shares of UnitedHealth in June, valued at approximately $1.6 billion, making it the 18th-largest position in Berkshire's portfolio [5]. - Scion Asset Management, led by Michael Burry, also increased its stake in UnitedHealth, indicating growing interest from prominent investors [5]. Market Context - The broader market's performance is supported by optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, following recent inflation data [10]. - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has decreased to its lowest levels this year, suggesting reduced market uncertainty [10].

Group 1: Investment Details - Berkshire Hathaway has made a significant investment in UnitedHealth Group, acquiring 5,039,564 shares at an average price of $311.97 per share, totaling approximately $1.57 billion [1] - The investment in UnitedHealth is one of Berkshire's most notable new entries in Q2 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - UnitedHealth's stock closed at $271.49, down 0.12%, but increased by 12.52% in pre-market trading to $305.48, indicating renewed optimism in the company's growth prospects [2] Group 3: Portfolio Reshuffle - The investment in UnitedHealth is part of a broader portfolio reshuffle by Berkshire, which also included new stakes in D.R. Horton, Lennar, and Nucor, while reducing positions in Apple and Bank of America [3] - Other prominent investors, including Michael Burry and David Tepper, also purchased shares in UnitedHealth during Q2, reflecting a wider interest in the company [3]

China deepened a trade spat with Canada, filing a lawsuit at the WTO over import restrictions on steel just days after slapping fresh duties on Canadian canola https://t.co/q1i3z9xA9K ...