沪指4月9日上涨1.31%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有29个，涨幅居前的行业为国防军工、商贸零 售，涨幅分别为6.27%、5.18%。商贸零售行业位居今日涨幅榜第二。跌幅居前的行业为银行、石油石 化，跌幅分别为0.94%、0.07%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流入74.27亿元，今日有16个行业主力资金净流入，计算机行业主力 资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨3.87%，全天净流入资金36.45亿元，其次是国防军工行业，日涨 幅为6.27%，净流入资金为33.72亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有15个，农林牧渔行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金32.84亿元， 其次是医药生物行业，净流出资金为13.56亿元，净流出资金较多的还有有色金属、基础化工、电力设 备等行业。 商贸零售行业今日上涨5.18%，全天主力资金净流出4.93亿元，该行业所属的个股共100只，今日上涨的 有94只，涨停的有7只；下跌的有6只，跌停的有1只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的 个股有40只，其中，净流入资金超3000万元的有7只，净流入资金居首的是中国中免，今日净流入资金 6.56亿元，紧随其后的是王府井、中 ...

（文章来源：证券时报网） | 代码 | 简称 | 业绩预告 | 业绩预告 | 预计净利润增幅中值 | 最新收盘价 | 今年以来涨跌 | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日期 | 类型 | （%） | （元） | （%） | | | 300199 | 翰宇 | 2025.03.27 | 预盈 | 568.02 | 13.00 | 0.85 | 医药生 | | | 药业 | | | | | | 物 | | 300476 | 胜宏 科技 | 2025.03.10 | 预增 | 319.83 | 61.22 | 45.45 | 电子 | | 301078 | 孩子 | 2025.04.07 | 预增 | 190.00 | 12.14 | 6.68 | 商贸零 | | | 王 | | | | | | 售 | | 300138 | 晨光 | 2025.04.08 | 预增 | 172.08 | 11.59 | 32.91 | 农林牧 | | | 生物 | | | | | | 渔 | | 300100 | 双林 股份 | 2025.0 ...

4月8日，A股三大指数集体上涨。 同花顺iFinD显示，截至今日收盘，上证指数上涨1.58%，深证成指上涨0.64%，创业板指上涨 1.83%，北证50指数上涨4.82%。 全国社会保障基金理事会发布公告称，全国社会保障基金理事会始终坚持长期投资、价值投 资、责任投资理念，坚定看好中国资本市场发展前景，主动融入国家发展战略，近日已主动增 持国内股票，近期将继续增持。在积极开展股票投资的同时实现基金安全和保值增值。 此外，头部险企、地方国资平台等各方面，陆续发声表态，全力支持资本市场。众多龙头上市 公司集中发布回购增持公告。 申万宏源首席策略分析师傅静涛向记者表示，中央汇金积极发挥平准基金功能，A股市场反映 长期积极因素正当时。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，此次多部委联合发布政策稳定资本市场，打出政策"组 合拳"，表达了坚定长期看好中国经济、力挺资本市场的决心。这不仅是对中央经济工作会 议"维护金融市场稳定"部署的落实，更标志着中国资本市场稳市机制建设迈向新阶段。 来源：金融时报 行业板块方面，31个申万一级行业中，23个行业指数上涨，8个行业指数下跌。其中，农林牧 渔、商贸零售、食品饮料、煤炭行业指数涨 ...

| 板块 | 2024 全年净利润同比增速 | 2024Q4 单季度净利润同比增速 | | --- | --- | --- | | 全部 A 股 | -0.4% | -6.7% | | 非受融 | -13.7% | -51.9% | | 按宽基指数划分 | | | | 沪深 300 | 5.1% | 6.8% | | 中证 500 | -18.9% | -56.7% | | 中证 1000 | -20.2% | -144.3% | | 中证 2000 | -150.0% | -72.9% | | 其他 | -77.8% | -49.6% | | 按中信一级行业划分 | | | | 农林牧渔 | 852.5% | 214.2% | | 商贸零售 | 288.5% | 25.8% | | 非银行金融 | 68.6% | 137.4% | | 电子 | 38.3% | 101.6% | | 综合 | 25.2% | 33.3% | | 汽车 | 22.8% | 45.5% | | 交通运输 | 22.2% | 267.7% | | 电力及公用事业 | 12.4% | -6.1% | | 食品饮料 | 10.1% | ...

根据《从结构化视角全新打造市场情绪择时模型》文中提到的构建思路，目前我们用于构建市场情绪结构指标所用到 的细分指标如下表。 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和所处布林轨道位置计算各指标分 数，指标分数可分为（-1，0，1）三种情况，最终对各个指标分数等权求和。最终的情绪结构指标为求和后分数的20 日均线，如图1所示，指标整体围绕0轴在[-6,6]的范围内上下波动，近5年A股市场情绪波动较大，其中2023年大部分 时间指标都处于较低位置，直至2024年10月市场情绪得分突破2。 市场情绪在3月的第3个交易日向上突破2，此后市场情绪整体保持向上抬升，但速度有一定减缓，近两周整体波动下 降。截至2025/3/28，市场情绪结构指标数值为1.6，数值较上周五(3/21)下降0.6，模型对下周市场发出偏空信号。 1. 情绪模型观点：资金情绪连续两周下行，择时短期继续偏空 1.1 从分项指标出发：市场缩量，价量一致性和期权波动率共同提 示情绪负向信号 下表展示了3月以来的情绪结构各分项指标的分数情况。 本周A股市场继续提示市场情绪下行，其中交易方向向价值 防御板块偏移（行业间交易波动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The industry has entered the annual report performance disclosure period, with a focus on companies showing strong fundamentals and marginal improvements [2] - Notable performances include: - Shangmei Co. achieved revenue of 6.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%, and a net profit of 803 million yuan, up 74% [2] - Aimeike reported revenue of 3.026 billion yuan, a 5.45% increase, and a net profit of 1.958 billion yuan, up 5.33% [2] - Mingchuang Youpin Group's revenue reached 17 billion yuan, a 22.8% increase, with overseas revenue growing by 42% to 6.68 billion yuan [2] - Huazhu Group's Q4 revenue was 6.023 billion yuan, a 7.8% increase, with plans to open 2,300 hotels in 2025 [2] Market Performance - For the week of March 17-21, 2025, the performance of the retail and beauty care sectors was as follows: - Shenwan retail sector down 4.03%, social services down 1.18%, and beauty care down 4.06% [11] - The overall market indices also declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.60% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.65% [11][14] - Sub-sectors such as professional chains, trade, and personal care products experienced significant declines, with drops of 7.86%, 4.78%, and 4.55% respectively [13] Key Events and Announcements - The report highlights several key events: - Chaohongji successfully held a spring new product ordering meeting, showcasing various new series that attracted strong interest from franchisees [23] - Betaini invested in the body care brand "Yujian," acquiring a 15.79% stake [22] - Yonghui Supermarket announced plans to close 250-350 stores as part of its reform strategy [22]

Macro Economic Insights - The economic impact of fertility subsidies is significant, with potential annual consumption increase of 0.22%-0.25% and GDP uplift of 0.08%-0.09% from 2025 to 2029 if the subsidy scheme is widely adopted [6][7][10] - Industrial production remains strong, with a slight decline but still maintaining a high growth rate, while service sector growth has slowed [8][9] Retail Industry - In January-February 2025, the total retail sales reached 83,731 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, indicating a mild recovery in consumption [26][27] - Online retail sales grew by 7.3%, with physical goods online sales accounting for 22.3% of total retail sales [28] - Investment recommendations focus on high-quality brands in sectors like traditional retail, gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [29] Real Estate Sector - In January-February 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing compared to previous years [31][32] - New housing starts are down by 29.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [32][33] - Investment suggestions include strong credit real estate companies and those benefiting from both residential and commercial property recovery [34] Food and Beverage Sector - Online sales of liquor increased by 32.2% in February 2025, with a notable rise in the concentration of leading brands [35][36] - The snack food sector saw a decline in online sales, but there is still potential for growth in the overall market [39] - Investment focus is on liquor companies with strong fundamentals and market share potential, as well as the snack food sector's growth prospects [39] Technology and Automotive Sector - The smart driving business of the company is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 42.38% from 2021 to 2024 [50][51] - The company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence, securing significant orders from well-known international brands [52]

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 17 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 呼和浩特育儿补贴政策率先落地 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（3 月第 2 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 风险提示：行业复苏及出生率不及预期、宏观经济增长放缓等风 险。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 图表目录 | Figure 1 | 申万一级行业周度涨跌幅 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | Figure 2 | 消费二级子行业周度涨跌幅 | 3 | | Figure 3 | 消费各行业周度涨幅前五个股 | 4 | | Figure 4 ...

2025 年 03 月 16 日 上期推荐三个行业涨幅前五，继续关注资金流长 短景气和反转 —行业和风格因子跟踪报告 投资要点 ▌ 行业因子最新变动情况 上周推荐的食品饮料、有色金属、纺织服装涨幅居全行业 前 5。 行业因子上周最大特征单一大类因子解释力度不佳，因为 单大类因子选择的部分行业跌幅过深。本周高低切换明 显，反转类因子有效，复合因子层面短期景气预期有效性 显著。因子多头短期预期营收调升比例均值同比上周表现 最好。主力资金因子未能排入前列但多头超额继续创下新 高。 整体看行业轮动因子描述市场开始积极定价一季报，资金 高切低时有分歧，分歧可能源自博弈上周政策，最终博弈 结果来看消费>顺周期>地产链。景气预期层面继续关注长 短预期。我们推荐长期景气 30%、短期景气 20%权重突出 多头选择，给主力资金 30%权重，长端反转因子 20%来筛 选当前政策刺激下的受益板块。 月频流动性角度三月最强势的复合因子是短周期预期和部 分财报质量因子。选择的是消费中的食品饮料和社服、军 工和顺周期中的钢铁、有色，以及纺织服装。 ▌ 定量行业推荐 基于权重分配，我们推荐内资主力资金因子为代表的资金流 （30%）、细分因 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Province has experienced significant population growth, leading the nation in population increase for four consecutive years, attributed to its robust private economy and wealth distribution model [1][11][28]. Population Growth - In 2024, Zhejiang's permanent population reached 66.7 million, an increase of 430,000 from 2023, marking the highest growth among provinces that have reported data [1][5]. - From 2021 to 2024, Zhejiang's population increased by 2.02 million, with annual increases of 720,000 in 2021, 370,000 in 2022, and 500,000 in 2023 [2][3]. Comparison with Other Provinces - Among the 31 provinces, only six have reported population data, with Zhejiang being the only one showing positive growth [1][4]. - In contrast, Guangdong's population growth remains uncertain, with Shenzhen reporting an increase of 199,400, nearly double that of Hangzhou [6][7]. Economic Strength - Zhejiang's private economy is a key driver of its population growth, contributing over 50% of tax revenue, 60% of GDP, and 90% of new employment [11][12]. - The private sector's value added is projected to account for 67.4% of the province's GDP in 2024, with a total of 10.95 million registered businesses [12][15]. Industrial Development - Zhejiang's industrial structure is characterized by a mix of traditional and emerging industries, with a focus on digital economy, advanced manufacturing, and trade services [21][24]. - The province's digital economy is projected to contribute significantly to GDP, with core industry value added expected to reach 7.6 billion yuan in 2024 [24][33]. Wealth Distribution - Zhejiang ranks third in per capita disposable income in China, with an expected income of 67,013 yuan in 2024, significantly higher than many other provinces [28][29]. - The province's cities, including Hangzhou and Ningbo, dominate the list of cities with the highest per capita disposable income [29]. Talent Acquisition Strategies - Hangzhou has implemented aggressive talent acquisition strategies, offering substantial living subsidies to attract high-educated individuals [30][32]. - The city aims to enhance its manufacturing sector, focusing on high-tech industries and innovation-driven development [34][35].