证券研究报告 （2025.06.02-06.08） 合规 诚信 专业 稳健 分 析 师：徐至 SAC登记编码：S0730525040001 发布日期：2025年6月8日 01 全国要闻与数据跟踪 目 02 河南经济与政策跟踪 录 03 债券市场运行跟踪 Contents 04 股票市场运行跟踪 05 券商板块周行情跟踪 2025年"服务消费季"着力推动商旅文体 健融合发展，培育"旅游+""美食+"等 融合消费场景，通过多种创新形式，激发经 营主体活力，提升供给品质，释放服务消费 潜能，培育新增长点。 融合消费场景 n 6月3日，商务部启动2025年"服务消费季"活动 n 6月3日，工业和信息化部专题研究部署推动人工智能产业发展和赋能新型工业化 n 6月3日，工业和信息化部等五部门发布《关于开展2025年新能源汽车下乡活动的通知》 n 6月4日，财政部发布《2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动评选结果公示》 n 6月4日，国家能源局组织开展新型电力系统建设第一批试点工作 n 本周公布主要数据： n 6月3日，财新传媒公布5月份财新中国制造业采购经理指数 n 6月5日，中国物流与采购联合会发布的2025年5月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic thermal coal market is experiencing a continuous decline in prices due to supply-demand imbalance, high inventory levels, and weak market sentiment, despite some potential support factors emerging as summer approaches [1][2][3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of thermal coal remains stable, with domestic production and imports adequately meeting market needs. As of May 20, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 622 yuan per ton, down 152 yuan from the year's peak [2]. - Industrial electricity recovery is slow, leading to low downstream purchasing intentions. In April, the cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with coal consumption also declining [2][4]. - High inventory levels across the coal supply chain are exerting downward pressure on prices, with port inventories reaching historical highs and insufficient downstream demand for coal transportation [3][4]. Seasonal Factors and Future Outlook - As high temperatures arrive, daily coal consumption by coal power enterprises is expected to gradually increase, potentially boosting procurement needs during the summer peak [4]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be some support for coal prices due to seasonal demand, the overall market is likely to remain weak in the short term, with prices expected to continue declining slightly before potentially stabilizing or rebounding during the summer peak [4][5]. - The anticipated turning point for daily coal consumption is expected to occur in late May, which may help to rebalance the current supply-demand situation [5].

Company Overview - The Group is the sole fully integrated washed coking coal producer and exporter in Mongolia[13] - As of January 25, 2024, the Company became a 50% equity holder in EM, expecting first gold production from BKH mine in 2Q 2025[15] Coal Resources and Reserves - Total coal resources are 1,052 million tonnes, with 714 million tonnes above 300m and 338 million tonnes below 300m[14] - Total coal reserves are 630 million tonnes, including 601 million tonnes of coking coal and 29 million tonnes of thermal coal[14] - Total marketable coal reserves are 382 million tonnes, comprising 277 million tonnes of coking coal and 105 million tonnes of middling/thermal coal[14] Gold & Silver Resources and Reserves - Total gold resources are 1,192 Koz and total silver resources are 3,542 Koz[16] - Total gold reserves are 514 Koz and total silver reserves are 221 Koz[16] Industry Overview (China) - China's crude steel production is 1,019 million tonnes, a 1% increase, and coke production is 493 million tonnes, a 4% increase[20] - China's coking coal consumption is 592 million tonnes, and coking coal import is 103 million tonnes, a 61% increase[20, 21] Operational Performance - Washed coking coal products sales volume reached 6.7 million tonnes in 2023[28] - ROM coal production was 9.8 million tonnes in 2023, a 2.1x increase compared to 4.7 million tonnes in 2022[28] - Mongolian coal export reached 27.7 million tonnes in 2023, a 2.2x increase compared to 12.1 million tonnes in 2022[28] ASP & Cost Metrics - HCC ASP (average selling price) increased from $147.1/t in 2022 to $160.2/t in 2023[31] - Effective royalty rate decreased from 22% in 2022 to 16.5% in 2023[33] - HCC operating cash cost at DAP GM decreased from $98.6/t in 2022 to $77.4/t in 2023[36] Financial Performance - Revenue increased 1.9x from $546 million in 2022 to $1.03 billion in 2023[39] - EBITDA increased 3.8x from $134 million in 2022 to $509 million in 2023[39] - Profit increased 4.1x from $59 million in 2022 to $240 million in 2023[39] Balance Sheet - Debt to EBITDA ratio decreased from 2.79 in 2022 to 0.42 in 2023[45] - Debt to total asset ratio decreased from 20.5% in 2022 to 10.7% in 2023[45] - Debt to equity ratio decreased from 40.3% in 2022 to 18.3% in 2023[45] Sustainability Reporting (GHG Emissions) - Scope 1 direct emissions are 1.2 million tCO2e (3.8%), Scope 2 indirect emissions are 16.8 thousand tCO2e (0.1%), and Scope 3 indirect emissions are 29.5 million tCO2e (96.1%)[46] - Total emissions are 30.7 million tCO2e, with an emissions intensity of 2.11 tCO2e/ROMt[46]

Company Overview - Ramaco Resources, Inc. operates and develops high-quality, low-cost metallurgical coal in southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia, and is emerging as a producer of rare earth elements and critical minerals [3] - The company has active mining complexes in Central Appalachia and the Brook Mine in Sheridan, Wyoming, where significant deposits of rare earth elements have been discovered [3] - Ramaco holds approximately 50 intellectual property patents, pending applications, exclusive licensing agreements, and various trademarks related to its operations [3] Leadership Changes - Aurelia Skipwith Giacometto has joined Earth & Water Law, LLC as a partner while continuing her role on the Board of Directors of Ramaco Resources [1][2] - Aurelia has over 20 years of experience in agriculture, wildlife conservation, and energy development, including her recent position as the 14th Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality [1] - The leadership of Aurelia has been recognized for driving innovation and fostering collaboration within the company, contributing significantly to its direction and success [2]

Company Overview - Ramaco Resources, a small coal miner based in Kentucky, has discovered a significant deposit of rare earth elements at its Brook Mine in Wyoming, which it purchased for $2 million [2][3] - The company has a market capitalization of $571 million and primarily mines coal for steel production in West Virginia and Virginia [3] Discovery and Potential Impact - The Brook Mine is estimated to contain up to 1.7 million tons of rare earth oxides, which could significantly alter the company's fortunes [2] - This discovery aligns with U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on China for rare earth elements, which are critical for national defense [3][4] National Security and Supply Chain - The U.S. relied on foreign countries for approximately 10,000 metric tons of rare earths in 2023, with China accounting for 70% of imports [4] - Ramaco's Brook Mine could help alleviate a national strategic supply shortfall of rare earths and critical minerals, allowing the U.S. to process its ores domestically [5] Production Capacity - The Brook Mine is projected to produce an estimated 1,400 metric tons of rare earth elements annually, marking the first new rare earth facility in the U.S. in over 70 years [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total operating revenue increased to $117.8 million for Q1 2025 compared to $94.8 million in Q4 2024 and $111.6 million in the prior year period [14] - Net income improved to $10 million for Q1 2025 compared to net losses of $215.8 million in Q4 2024 and the prior year period [14] - Operating cash flow increased to $38.4 million for Q1 2025 compared to $32.5 million in Q4 2024 and $16.4 million in the prior year period [14] - Adjusted EBITDA increased significantly to $19.3 million for Q1 2025 compared to $6.2 million in Q4 2024 and $6.8 million in the prior year period [14] - Total bank debt reduced to $23 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $44 million at December 31, 2024, and $77 million at March 31, 2024 [15] - Total liquidity increased to $69 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $37.8 million at December 31, 2024, and $39.5 million at March 31, 2024 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Electric sales for Q1 2025 increased to $85.9 million compared to $69.7 million in Q4 2024 and $60.7 million in the prior year period [13] - Coal sales were $54.8 million for Q1 2025 compared to $42.4 million in Q4 2024 and $66 million in the prior year period, reflecting a strategic reduction in coal production [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The forward power curves indicate increasing margins for energy produced at the Merum plant, with accredited capacity sold at prices exceeding $600 per megawatt day in the recent MISO auction [9] - Approximately 3 million megawatt hours have been contracted for the balance of 2025 at an average price of $37.20, and 3.4 million megawatt hours for 2026 at an average price of $44.43 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a strategic shift to a vertically integrated independent power producer, leveraging strong counterparty relationships to manage price volatility [5] - Ongoing negotiations with a leading global data center developer are progressing, with the potential for long-term supply agreements [6] - The company is exploring opportunities to acquire additional dispatchable assets to enhance scale and diversify revenue streams [7] - Plans to evaluate the addition of natural gas co-firing capabilities at the Merum plant to provide fuel flexibility and manage operating expenses [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes the trend of retiring dispatchable generators in favor of non-dispatchable resources will lead to energy market volatility, enhancing the value of their subsidiary, Howard Power [7] - The company expects to produce approximately 3.8 million tons of coal in 2025, with the potential to increase production if market conditions support it [11] - There is growing demand for reliable power, particularly as grid volatility increases, positioning the company well for sustained growth [12] Other Important Information - The company did not utilize its ATM program in the first quarter and has not used it since Q2 2024 [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the exclusivity period with the initial counterparty - Management is evaluating whether to grant an extension for the exclusivity period or continue negotiations non-exclusively while considering other interests [20] Question: Final steps in negotiations with the initial counterparty - Most major points have been negotiated, and the focus is now on finalizing details with the hyperscaler and ensuring alignment among all parties [22] Question: Timing and capital intensity for co-firing with natural gas - The company is analyzing the feasibility of co-firing and expects to provide updates in the future, indicating that the project is very feasible [25] Question: Structure of long-term deals with hyperscalers - The negotiated structure for energy sales is on a unit contingent basis for over a decade in length [26]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total operating revenue for Q1 2025 increased to $117.8 million compared to $94.8 million in Q4 2024 and $111.6 million in the prior year period [16] - Net income improved to $10 million in Q1 2025 from a net loss of $215.8 million in Q4 2024 and the prior year period [16] - Operating cash flow increased to $38.4 million in Q1 2025 from $32.5 million in Q4 2024 and $16.4 million in the prior year period [16] - Adjusted EBITDA rose significantly to $19.3 million in Q1 2025 from $6.2 million in Q4 2024 and $6.8 million in the prior year period [16] - Total bank debt was reduced to $23 million as of March 31, 2025, down from $44 million at the end of Q4 2024 and $77 million at the end of Q1 2024 [17] - Total liquidity increased to $69 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $37.8 million at the end of Q4 2024 and $39.5 million at the end of Q1 2024 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Electric sales for Q1 2025 increased to $85.9 million compared to $69.7 million in Q4 2024 and $60.7 million in the prior year period [15] - Coal sales were $54.8 million for Q1 2025, compared to $42.4 million in Q4 2024 and $66 million in the prior year period, reflecting a strategic reduction in coal production [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The forward power curves indicate increasing margins for energy produced at the Merum plant, with accredited capacity sold at prices exceeding $600 per megawatt day in the recent MISO auction [10] - Approximately 3 million megawatt hours have been contracted for the balance of 2025 at an average price of $37.20, and 3.4 million megawatt hours for 2026 at an average price of $44.43, reflecting strong market demand [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on becoming a vertically integrated independent power producer, leveraging strong counterparty relationships to manage price volatility and demand fluctuations [5][6] - Ongoing negotiations with a leading global data center developer are progressing, with the potential for long-term energy supply agreements [6][7] - The company is exploring opportunities to acquire additional dispatchable assets to enhance scale and diversify revenue streams [8] - Plans to evaluate the addition of natural gas co-firing capabilities at the Merum plant to provide fuel flexibility and manage operating expenses [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes that the trend of retiring dispatchable generators in favor of non-dispatchable resources will create volatility in energy markets, enhancing the value of their operations [8] - The company expects to produce approximately 3.8 million tons of coal in 2025, with the potential to increase production if market conditions support it [12] - There is growing demand for reliable power, particularly as grid volatility increases, positioning the company well for sustained growth [14] Other Important Information - The company did not utilize its ATM program in the first quarter and has not used it since Q2 2024 [17] - The company is optimistic about selling energy at higher prices in support of data center development and traditional wholesale customers beyond 2026 [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the exclusivity period with the counterparty - Management is evaluating whether to grant an extension for the exclusivity period or continue negotiations non-exclusively while considering other interests [20][22] Question: Final steps in negotiations with the initial counterparty - Most major points have been negotiated, and the focus is now on finalizing details with the hyperscaler and ensuring alignment among all parties [24][25] Question: Timing and capital intensity for co-firing with natural gas - The company is analyzing the feasibility of co-firing and expects to provide updates in the future, with positive indications from contractors [26][28] Question: Structure of long-term deals with hyperscalers - The structure has been negotiated to be on a unit contingent basis for over a decade in length [30]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $10 million, down from $29 million in Q4 2024, with a net loss of $9 million compared to a net income of $4 million in Q4 2024 [31] - Class A EPS showed a loss of $0.19 in Q1 versus a gain of $0.06 in Q4 [31] - Key U.S. metallurgical coal indices fell 3% in Q1 compared to Q4, while the Australian benchmark index dropped approximately 9% during the same period [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Company-wide production reached a quarterly record of 1 million tons, annualizing to 4 million tons, despite losing about 150,000 tons due to adverse weather conditions [8][41] - Cash cost per ton sold was under $100 for the second consecutive quarter, placing the company in the first quartile of U.S. metallurgical coal producers [8][33] - The company is reducing its 2025 production guidance to between 3.9 million to 4.3 million tons, down from previous expectations of 4.2 million to 4.6 million tons [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The metallurgical coal market remains under pressure, driven by weak steel mill profitability and strong Chinese steel exports, which have negatively impacted global steel prices [53][54] - The Australian premium low vol index increased to $190.5 per ton, up from a recent low of $166, driven by supply disruptions and steady restocking demand [51] - Domestic end users are taking shipments at a consistent rate, with commitments of 3.7 million tons at an average fixed price of $152 per ton [50] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on not forcing production into a weak market, maintaining the option to increase production if market conditions improve [10] - Plans to expand production by an additional 2 million tons are in place, contingent on market clarity, with a potential increase in production capacity from the Maven Low Vol Complex and Berwind Complex [11] - The Brookline Rare Earth project is seen as a significant opportunity, with plans to initiate large-scale mining in June and construction of a pilot plant expected to begin later in the summer [23][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about potential market recovery, citing recent increases in Australian benchmark prices and anticipated supply cuts from higher-cost producers [12] - The company is well-positioned to withstand near-term market weakness due to strong liquidity and a solid balance sheet [39] - Management remains cautious about the current market conditions but is optimistic about the long-term potential of the critical minerals market [30] Other Important Information - The company has appointed Mike Wolichuk as Executive Vice President to oversee the Critical Minerals project, bringing over 30 years of experience in the field [15] - The Brook Mine is projected to produce approximately 1,400 metric tons of critical mineral oxides per year, with over 95% of expected revenue derived from a basket of seven rare earth elements and critical minerals [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the guidance for sales mix and cost improvements moving into the second half? - Management indicated that Q2 sales guidance implies a pickup in the back half of the year, with costs expected to be at the higher end of the range due to lower tonnage [64][65] Question: Could the Brook Mine be included in the Fast 41 projects for federal benefits? - Management clarified that the Brook Mine was not included as it already has permits, but they are exploring federal assistance for financing and procurement [68][71] Question: Is there a desire to bring in a financing or operating partner for the Brook Mine? - Management stated they are not seeking a joint venture partner and plan to finance the project independently, leveraging existing partnerships for development [76][77] Question: What is the breakdown of CapEx for sustaining versus growth projects? - Management noted a reduction in CapEx guidance, with a focus on maintenance CapEx and deferring some growth projects due to current market conditions [82][83] Question: What are the implications of met coal being declared a potential critical mineral? - Management expressed hope for federal support but noted that immediate benefits are uncertain; they anticipate potential assistance with permitting [88][90]

Financial Performance & Growth - Ramaco's revenue reached $666 million in 2024[11] - Adjusted EBITDA was $106 million in 2024[11] - Net income was $11 million in 2024[11] - Sales volume was 4 million tons in 2024[11] - Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was less than 0.7x[11] - Cash costs per ton decreased by 17% from $118 in 1Q24 to $98 in 1Q25[14, 26] - The company anticipates growing production at least 10% in 2025 compared to 2024[46] 2025 Guidance - The company projects production between 3900 thousand tons and 4300 thousand tons in 2025[34] - Sales are guided between 4100 thousand tons and 4500 thousand tons[34] - Capital expenditures are estimated between $55 million and $65 million[34] Rare Earth Elements (REE) & Critical Minerals Potential - The Brook Mine has a significant percentage of magnetic REEs and is rich in gallium, germanium, and scandium[59] - Over 40% of the total estimated REO basket consists of primary magnetic REOs, gallium, germanium, and scandium[60]

Summary of Barclays Metals & Mining Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Metals & Mining, with a focus on the steel production sector in China and global commodity markets [1][7] Key Points and Arguments 1. **China's Steel Production**: - CISA estimates that nationwide steel production is up 5.4% year-to-date as of late April, contrasting with NBS's 1.1% increase to March [2] - Speculated output restrictions of 50 million tons of crude steel could lead to significant price increases due to low inventories, although rebar futures have fallen by 2.4% week-over-week [2] - Implementing a 50 million ton cut would require a 13.2% decline in average daily production for the remainder of the year, which may be challenging due to economic impacts on local economies [2] 2. **Commodity Price Movements**: - Iron ore prices have seen fluctuations, with a recent increase of 1% for 62% fines, currently at $98.2 per ton [14] - EU HRC prices remain stable at €652 per ton, with a 0% change week-over-week [15] - Copper prices increased by 1% to $9,473 per ton, reflecting a 10% rise over the past month [14] 3. **China's Economic Indicators**: - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $41 billion month-over-month to approximately $3.3 trillion [9] - Total trade value in April reached 3.84 trillion yuan ($531.46 billion), up 5.6% year-over-year, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan (+9.3% YoY) and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan (+0.8% YoY) [9] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.5% cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for eligible financial institutions, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan ($138.9 billion) into the market [9] 4. **Corporate Developments**: - De Beers is closing its lab-grown diamond business, reaffirming its commitment to traditional diamonds [8] - Guinea canceled a bauxite mining license held by EGA due to non-compliance with refinery construction requirements, impacting EGA's operations significantly [10] - KoBold Metals reached a preliminary agreement to acquire a stake in the Manono lithium deposit in the DRC, aiming to deploy over $1 billion for development [10] 5. **Market Sentiment**: - The market remains cautious with ongoing discussions about output restrictions in the steel sector and the impact of PBOC's monetary policy on market sentiment [12][13] - European steel plate prices have shown limited movement, with inquiries increasing but orders remaining low, indicating a cautious market environment [13] Additional Important Information - **Aluminium Market**: US aluminium inventories are expected to run dry by July, potentially leading to price increases due to tariffs [12] - **Copper Inventory Trends**: Copper inventories on the SHFE have declined by 60% month-over-month, indicating a tightening market [10] - **China's Real Estate Policy Changes**: Chinese officials are considering reforms to the housing market to stabilize prices, which may impact future demand [9] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the metals and mining industry, particularly in relation to China's steel production and broader economic indicators.