May 30, 2025 06:33 AM GMT 亚洲经济研究 | Asia Pacific M Idea 观点：亚洲会走向再平衡吗？ 虽然经常账户盈余将会收窄，但我们认为消费占GDP的比重 不会出现重大转变，从而达到真正和持续的再平衡。与此相 关的是，对于亚洲45万亿美元的投资头寸，我们认为有增加 对冲的可能性，但并非投资组合的再平衡。 要点 在本报告中，我们详细介绍了亚洲与美国和世界其他地区的双边经常账户余额和 ⬘投资头寸的趋势。我们将解释这一持续趋势背后的原因以及⯥景。 This translated report is made available for convenience only and is based on the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy between the translation and the original research report, the content in the original research report will pr ...

June 2, 2025 02:03 PM GMT Cross-Asset Spotlight | Global M Update Signals, Flows & Key Data Ariana Gamero Strategist Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts; Note: Returns are total returns, except for credit, where we forecast excess returns versus government bonds. Commodity returns are calculated relative to futures to account for carry. Volatility is 10y realized vol. All currency returns are shown as XXXUSD return. *Currency forecasts shown for USDXXX. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Serena ...

May 30, 2025 01:46 PM GMT Cross-Asset Brief Are US Assets Losing Their Safe-Haven Allure? Key Debates in Under 5 Minutes: May 2025 Don't have a lot of time? Here are some brief thoughts on a few key cross-asset debates we've had with investors in May on our out-of-consensus calls. 1) Could expected fiscal expansion lift term premium significantly? No, we expect growing deficits to be funded mostly by T-bills 2) Is it time to get strategically constructive on Chinese risk assets? No, domestic deflation and t ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the consumer goods trade-in program in China Core Insights - China's real GDP growth is projected to be above 5% year-over-year in H1 2025, driven by stronger-than-expected exports and the consumer goods trade-in program [3][4] - The trade-in program, launched in April 2024, has significantly boosted retail sales, with January-April 2025 retail sales averaging 2.5% above the pre-trade-in program trend [3][5][6] - The program's effectiveness is attributed to expanded product coverage and increased subsidies, with the National Development and Reform Commission allocating RMB 300 billion for 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections Impact of Trade-in Program - The trade-in program has led to a year-over-year growth of headline retail sales improving to 4.7% in the first four months of 2025, compared to 3.5% in 2024 [6] - The expansion of eligible goods categories, including mobile phones and smart home devices, has contributed to the sales boost [8][11] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a large pool of potential trade-in demand for old autos and home appliances, with an estimated RMB 1.7 trillion worth of appliances aged over 8 years [20][23] - However, monthly auto trade-in applications have shown signs of slowing, indicating potential challenges in sustaining the program's momentum [24][30] Future Consumption Growth Areas - The report highlights a shift in policy focus towards services consumption, which currently accounts for 46% of household spending in China, significantly lower than the 60% seen in developed countries [35][39] - Structural issues and cultural factors are identified as barriers to increasing services consumption, necessitating substantial policy efforts for improvement [39][40]

June 2, 2025 09:34 PM GMT M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts Next 12 Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is a structural shock to the global trading order. The tariffs themselves and the associated uncertainty will weigh notably on growth, but given the strong starting point coming into the year, we do not expect a global recession. Despite recent tariff announcements, we still expect baseline tariff rates to remain the same as ou ...

Group 1 - Aberdeen International Inc. announced the resignation of Ryan Ptolemy as the chief financial officer and corporate secretary, effective immediately [1] - The board and management expressed gratitude for Mr. Ptolemy's services and contributions to the company [1] Group 2 - Aberdeen is a global resource investment company and merchant bank focused on small capitalization companies in the rare metals and renewable energy sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tariffs are significantly impacting market dynamics, with recent legal rulings and policy changes influencing investor sentiment and stock performance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs exceeded his authority, leading to a market rally [1][2]. - Despite the S&P 500 being nearly flat for the year, European indices have seen substantial gains, with the iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF (IEUR) up over 23% [2]. - Investors are shifting focus to European stocks due to tariff uncertainties, particularly following Trump's pause on further tariffs on the EU [3]. Group 2: Promising European Stocks - nVent Electric plc (NVT) is positioned for growth with a market cap of at least $2 billion, projected EPS growth of nearly 15% over five years, and strong profit margins [4][5][6]. - Aon plc (AON) has strong gross and profit margins, with analysts upgrading the stock to a Buy despite missing EPS and revenue targets, indicating a potential upside of nearly 13% [7][8][9]. - Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) recently flew over 200 million passengers, with expectations of 30% EPS growth this year and strong technical signals indicating a bullish trend [11][12][13]. - ING Groep N.V. (ING) has a market cap of $65 billion, strong profit margins, and a 5% dividend yield, making it a top international pick for growth [14][15][16].

Group 1 - Temenos has been awarded the Best Core Banking System at the Banking Tech Awards USA 2025, highlighting its innovative capabilities in the US banking sector [1] - The company offers a best-of-suite core banking and modular core solutions, providing US financial institutions with choice, flexibility, and a path to modernization, supported by cloud-native architecture and embedded AI [2] - Temenos' core banking software is trusted by over 950 banks globally and can be deployed on-premises, in the cloud, or as SaaS [2] Group 2 - US financial institutions using Temenos benefit from robust regionalization and pre-configured banking capabilities tailored for the US market, along with a Model Bank framework for efficient implementation [3] - The President of Americas at Temenos emphasized the award's significance in demonstrating the company's US banking capabilities and its commitment to innovation in this strategic growth market [4] - Temenos is establishing a new Innovation Hub in Central Florida, which will house around 200 technology and product developers to foster co-innovation with US financial institutions [4] Group 3 - The company invests approximately 20% of its revenues in R&D to enhance its core banking suite, with recent innovations including a Gen AI Copilot to expedite the design and optimization of financial products [5] - Temenos has launched the first Responsible Generative AI solutions for core banking in 2024, reinforcing its leadership in AI [5] - The company has been recognized as a Leader in the IDC MarketScape for North America Digital Core Banking Platforms 2024 Vendor Assessment and in The Forrester Wave™: Digital Banking Processing Platforms, Q4 2024 [6]

May 27, 2025 10:12 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | Global May 27 Sharp super-long JGB rally amid speculation for lower long-end issuance; positive EU and US trade developments support US assets; USTs bull-flatten; miss in France CPI; LatAm currencies outperform; Fed's Barkin warns of effects of uncertainty; DXY at 99.58 (0.5%); US 10y at 4.444% (-6.7bp) Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (Euro Area Rates Strategy: More Room to Go; Hong Kong Macro Strategy, Economics, Property & Bank ...

Asia Thematics and Sustainability | Asia Pacific May 27, 2025 09:00 PM GMT What Investors in China and Japan Are Saying The two biggest markets in Asia are showing strong interest in thematic and sustainability topics. We met with >15 investors in Shanghai and Tokyo over the last two weeks and highlight the key topics from our meetings in this report. Key Takeaways Investors asked the below questions - see inside for our thoughts and responses. M Idea Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Tim Chan, CFA Equity Strate ...