Core Insights - Investment bankers, particularly at Goldman Sachs, are anticipating a significant increase in M&A activity, marking their largest market share in nearly 25 years [2][5]. M&A Market Overview - M&A activity has shown resilience, with a 10% year-over-year increase in global deal value, rising from $1.7 trillion in 2024 to $1.9 trillion in 2025 [3]. - North America accounted for the majority of this activity, with $1.2 trillion in deals, representing 62% of global M&A [3]. Megadeals and Goldman Sachs' Performance - The number of megadeals (over $10 billion) has increased, with 27 deals reported through September 30, compared to 21 in the same period last year [4]. - Goldman Sachs advised on the record $55 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts, earning a $110 million fee, which enhances its competitive positioning [4]. Financial Performance of Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs shares have risen 35% this year, reaching a record high closing price of $838.97 [5]. - The firm reported a 42% year-over-year increase in investment banking fees, totaling $2.6 billion in Q3, exceeding analysts' expectations [5]. - Goldman advised on $1 trillion in announced M&A deals in 2025, which is $220 billion more than its closest competitor [5]. Market Share Insights - Goldman Sachs has advised on 34% of global mergers by deal value in 2025, up from 28% in 2024, marking the highest share since 2015 [7]. - The firm is on track to earn its largest share of the deals market since 2001, with a fee market share of 10.7%, the best since 2022 [7].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has secured exclusive rights to negotiate the purchase of Burger King's operations in Japan, with a potential deal valued at approximately Y70bn ($452m) [1] - Affinity Equity Partners has held the master franchise for Burger King in Japan since 2017, aiming to expand the brand's footprint in the Asia-Pacific region [2] - Burger King reported a 4% year-on-year rise in same-store sales in Q3 2025, driven by a 3.1% increase at its locations [2] Group 2 - Burger King is implementing a multi-year "Reclaim the Flame" program, which includes planned investments of up to $700m before the end of 2028 for various improvements [3] - A joint venture with Chinese private equity firm CPE was announced in November 2025, with CPE owning 83% of Burger King China and RBI retaining a 17% stake [4] - The partnership with CPE includes a $350m capital infusion to support new restaurant openings, marketing, and menu innovation [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its export growth, alongside insights into the economic conditions in **South Korea**, **Taiwan**, **Japan**, **Australia**, **New Zealand**, **Vietnam**, **Malaysia**, **Indonesia**, **Philippines**, **Thailand**, and **India** [1][2][17][26][30]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Export Growth**: - China's export growth forecast has been upgraded due to robust export momentum, with a projected growth rate of over 5% per year, outpacing global growth [1][2]. - The manufacturing sector remains competitive, particularly in emerging sectors like batteries and electric vehicles [1]. 2. **Economic Growth Projections**: - China's GDP growth is expected to slow gradually from 5% this year to 4.5% by 2028, with a current account surplus of 3.9% of GDP in Q3 [2]. - The country is on track to achieve the largest trade surplus globally in decades, posing challenges for other manufactured goods exporters [2]. 3. **Policy and Trade Relations**: - The next Five-Year Plan emphasizes manufacturing and self-reliance, aiming to reduce imports while increasing exports [1]. - A tentative trade truce with the US has provided leverage for China, particularly regarding rare earth minerals [1]. 4. **Challenges in Domestic Demand**: - China's domestic demand is facing challenges, particularly in property and non-property investments, which have slowed significantly [12]. - The central government has less incentive to stimulate the economy aggressively in the short term due to near-target GDP growth figures [14]. 5. **Regional Economic Conditions**: - **South Korea**: Faces slow consumption growth due to demographic changes and household debt, with a need for technological advancement in exports [17]. - **Taiwan**: Exports have surged by 50% year-on-year, but investment growth remains low, indicating a narrow base of economic performance [17]. - **Japan**: Sluggish growth in Q3, with easing tariff uncertainties following a visit from US President Trump [21]. - **Australia and New Zealand**: Australia’s inflation has prompted a halt in rate cuts, while New Zealand is expected to see a growth reacceleration [22]. - **Vietnam and Malaysia**: Both countries reported strong GDP growth, driven by industrial activity and exports [26]. Other Important Insights - The report highlights the divergence in economic performance within the ASEAN region, with Vietnam and Malaysia leading in growth while Indonesia and the Philippines face challenges [26]. - The report suggests that the RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD, but this will not significantly impact China's export competitiveness [2]. - The manufacturing PMI in Taiwan and Korea indicates a narrow performance gap, with Taiwan at 47.7 and Korea at 49.4, reflecting broader economic challenges [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China and its regional counterparts.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy and Key Economic Indicators - **Focus**: Economic performance in October 2025, including industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment (FAI), and property sector dynamics Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production**: - Industrial production growth slowed to **4.9% y-o-y** in October from **6.5%** in September, below market expectations of **5.5%** [2][7] - The slowdown was attributed to distortions from the mid-autumn festival and Golden Week holiday [2][7] - Average industrial production growth for September-October was **5.7%**, still above **5.5%** in July-August [2] 2. **Retail Sales**: - Retail sales growth inched down to **2.9% y-o-y** in October from **3.0%** in September, slightly above market consensus of **2.8%** [3][12] - Catering services saw significant growth, rising to **3.8% y-o-y** from **0.9%** in September, aided by the extended holiday [3][14] - Sales of home appliances and autos contracted sharply, with home appliances down **14.6%** and autos down **6.6%** [3][15] 3. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - FAI contracted further to **-11.2% y-o-y** in October from **-6.8%** in September, significantly below market expectations [4][16] - The decline was broad-based, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments also showing negative growth [4][16] - The property sector remains a primary drag on FAI, with property investment down **23.1% y-o-y** [5][20] 4. **Property Sector Dynamics**: - The property sector's decline deepened, with new home sales by value down **24.1%** and by floor space down **18.6%** [5][20] - New home starts and completions also worsened, dropping **29.6%** and **28.4%** respectively [5][21] - Housing prices continued to decline, particularly in tier-1 cities, with existing home prices down **0.95% m-o-m** [5][22] 5. **Macroeconomic Policy Outlook**: - The focus of policy may shift towards ensuring short-term stability and addressing deflation, with fiscal expansion likely to be prioritized [1] Additional Important Insights - **Export Performance**: Average growth of export-delivered value was **0.9% y-o-y** in September-October, an improvement from **0.2%** in July-August [2] - **Sector-Specific Trends**: - Manufacturing investment growth declined to **-6.7% y-o-y** in October, influenced by the anti-involution campaign [17] - Infrastructure investment growth also dipped to **-12.1% y-o-y** [19] - **Consumer Behavior**: The contraction in durable goods sales indicates a shift in consumer spending patterns, with a notable decline in home appliances and autos [15] This summary encapsulates the critical economic indicators and trends affecting the Chinese economy as of October 2025, highlighting areas of concern and potential policy responses.

November 17, 2025 07:06 AM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America The Market-Implied Path for Fed Policy Is Priced for Productivity Our economists' 2026 outlook envisions four possible paths for the US economy and resulting Fed policy. The current market- implied path for Fed policy aligns most closely with the likely path in a scenario where AI-driven productivity gains exceed expectations. Stay long 5y US Treasuries. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Mat ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic partnership between Guotai Haitong and Bloomberg aims to enhance collaboration in financial data, fintech, and market expansion, leveraging Bloomberg's global resources to support Guotai Haitong's international business growth and brand development [2][4]. Group 1: Partnership Details - The signing ceremony was attended by key figures including Guotai Haitong's Chairman Zhu Jian and Bloomberg's founder Michael Bloomberg [2]. - The partnership will focus on improving Guotai Haitong's capabilities in international business, global data governance, wealth management, and overseas family office services [4]. Group 2: Company Backgrounds - Bloomberg, founded in 1981 and headquartered in New York City, operates 167 branches globally and employs over 26,000 people, providing trusted financial data and insights [4]. - Guotai Haitong was established through the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities in 2025, with a presence across 31 provinces and regions in China, and services extending to 17 countries and regions [4].

Goldman Sachs tackled the “most important question for the U.S. equity market outlook” on Monday: whether the market is “correctly valuing the benefits from AI.” The answer is a qualified yes, a denial that company valuations are at “bubble levels,” and a finding that the market is, shall we say, excessively optimistic. The U.S. equity market may have already incorporated a significant amount of the potential long-term value generated by AI, according to a new analysis from the investment bank. Some “simp ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are projected to decline through 2026 due to a significant production surge, resulting in a market surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day [1] Industry Summary - Goldman Sachs forecasts a decline in oil prices driven by increased production levels [1] - The anticipated surplus in the oil market is estimated at around 2 million barrels per day, indicating a substantial imbalance between supply and demand [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs is benefiting from a significant resurgence in mergers and acquisitions activity, marking the most robust dealmaking environment in nearly 25 years [1] Company Summary - The firm has secured a leading position in the current wave of global dealmaking, capitalizing on increased merger and acquisition activities [1] Industry Summary - The overall surge in M&A activity indicates a renaissance in the dealmaking landscape, suggesting a favorable environment for investment banks like Goldman Sachs [1]

Core Insights - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has appointed Keith Peterson as Managing Director and Head of Cash Equity Sales and Trading, aiming to enhance trading operations and cross-platform growth initiatives [1][2][3] Group 1: Leadership and Experience - Keith Peterson brings over two decades of equity markets experience, previously serving as Partner and Head of Sector Trading at William Blair and spending nearly 20 years at Credit Suisse [3][4] - His expertise in trading and client relationship management is expected to strengthen Oppenheimer's equities platform [3] Group 2: Strategic Goals - Peterson will oversee all supervisory and operational activities for the equity sales and trading team, ensuring excellence in client service [2][4] - He will co-chair the newly formed Capital Markets Business Development Committee, focusing on collaboration across asset classes and identifying growth opportunities [4][5] Group 3: Company Vision - Oppenheimer is committed to building a best-in-class Equities platform and delivering differentiated products and services to clients globally [4] - The firm continues to invest in top talent to support long-term growth across capital markets, aligning with its culture of teamwork and excellence [5]