Core Insights - The article discusses the overwhelming crowds and challenges faced during the "May Day" holiday travel in China, highlighting the need for flexible vacation policies to alleviate pressure on tourism resources [8][24][25]. Group 1: Travel Statistics - According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, an estimated 314 million domestic trips are expected during the 2025 "May Day" holiday, representing a 6.4% increase year-on-year [13]. - The total expenditure by domestic tourists is projected to reach 180.27 billion yuan, marking an 8.0% increase compared to previous years [13]. Group 2: Travel Experience Challenges - Many travelers reported poor experiences due to overcrowding, with popular destinations becoming "battlefields" rather than enjoyable sites [27]. - The high demand for accommodations led to significant price increases, with some hotels charging several times their usual rates, causing frustration among travelers [25][24]. Group 3: Flexible Vacation Policies - The article advocates for the promotion of "flexible vacation" policies to distribute travel demand more evenly throughout the year, potentially reducing the strain on popular destinations during peak times [10][29]. - Implementing such policies could enhance the overall travel experience by allowing tourists to avoid crowds and high prices, thus improving tourism quality [30][31]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The concentration of travel during peak holidays can lead to inflated operational costs for tourism-related businesses, limiting profit margins [31]. - A more staggered approach to vacations could extend the tourism consumption cycle, benefiting both businesses and consumers by balancing demand and supply [32]. Group 5: Implementation Challenges - The article notes that while flexible vacation policies could alleviate some issues, they face challenges such as disrupting educational schedules and maintaining necessary staffing in critical sectors like healthcare [34][35]. - A balanced approach that allows for partial staggered vacations could meet operational needs while still addressing tourism demand [38]. Group 6: Examples of Successful Implementation - Some educational institutions, like Qingdao Binhai College and schools in Hangzhou, have successfully implemented staggered vacation models, allowing families to travel during less crowded times [41][43]. - These examples demonstrate the potential benefits of flexible vacation policies in reducing peak travel pressures and enhancing the travel experience for families [44].

Core Insights - Expedia Group (EXPE) reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 40 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.76%, but showing a year-over-year increase of 90.5% [1] - Revenues for the quarter were $2.98 billion, a 3.4% year-over-year increase, but also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.27% [2] - Total gross bookings rose to $31.5 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase, with B2B bookings growing significantly [3] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $296 million, up 16.1% year over year [4] - Adjusted EBIT decreased 65% year over year to negative $21 million [5] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $6.1 billion from $4.5 billion since the end of 2024, while long-term debt decreased to $4.465 billion [6] Operational Highlights - B2B revenues increased by 13.7% year over year to $947 million, while B2C revenues decreased by 1.5% to $1.96 billion [2] - Lodging gross bookings grew 5% year over year to $23.03 billion, with hotel bookings climbing 6% [3] - Booked room nights rose 6% from the previous year to 107.7 million [3] Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, EXPE expects gross bookings growth in the range of 2-4% and revenue growth of 3-5% [7] - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA margins to increase by 75-100 basis points year over year [7] - For the full year 2025, EXPE projects gross bookings and revenue growth in the 2% to 4% range [7]

Group 1: Cathie Wood and Ark Invest - Cathie Wood is recognized as a leading growth investor and has made significant moves as the head of Ark Invest, with some of its ETFs outperforming the market [1] - Ark Invest follows a "buy low, sell high" investment strategy, focusing on stocks that are perceived as undervalued [2] Group 2: Airbnb - Airbnb's stock is currently 42% off its highs, experiencing volatility and only gaining 84% since its first-day closing price [2] - The company reported a 6% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, transitioning from an unprofitable growth stock to a profitable industry leader, with trailing 12-month free cash flow of $4.4 billion and a 39% margin [4] - Management anticipates a 10% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, indicating potential growth acceleration [5] - Airbnb is set to unveil a major launch that aims to expand beyond its core offerings, which could significantly enhance growth potential [6] - The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 25 and a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 18, suggesting it is not overvalued but not a bargain either [7] Group 3: Roku - Roku's stock is currently 87% off its highs, facing challenges in meeting market expectations despite being a leader in ad-supported streaming [8] - The company reported a 16% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, with platform revenue accounting for 86% of total revenue [9] - Roku's total operating loss was $58 million, an improvement from $72 million the previous year, with management expecting a narrowed net loss of $30 million for the full year [10] - Streaming hours increased by 5.1 million year-over-year, with the Roku Channel becoming the second most popular channel in the U.S., and its streaming hours increased by 84% year-over-year [11] - Management projects the business will achieve operating profits next year, with positive EPS expected in 2026 [12] - Roku's stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 2, indicating it is fairly priced, and could be a good investment for those willing to wait for a turnaround [13]

Core Insights - Expedia reported $2.99 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 3.4%, with an EPS of $0.40 compared to $0.21 a year ago [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.03 billion, resulting in a surprise of -1.27%, while the EPS also missed the consensus estimate of $0.42 by -4.76% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gross bookings totaled $31.45 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $31.85 billion [4] - Stayed room nights were 108, exceeding the average estimate of 106, with a growth rate of 6%, lower than the 8.1% average estimate [4] - Merchant gross bookings were $18.21 billion, compared to the estimated $18.83 billion [4] - International revenue was $1.16 billion, below the average estimate of $1.22 billion, but showed a year-over-year increase of 5.6% [4] - U.S. revenue reached $1.83 billion, slightly below the estimated $1.85 billion, reflecting a 2.1% year-over-year increase [4] - B2C revenue was $1.96 billion, below the average estimate of $2.04 billion, while B2B revenue was $947 million, exceeding the estimate of $924.59 million, marking a 13.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Revenue from lodging was $2.29 billion, below the estimate of $2.36 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7% [4] - Revenue from Trivago was $85 million, surpassing the estimate of $74.76 million, with a significant year-over-year increase of 21.4% [4] - Air revenue was $107 million, below the estimated $114.41 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 7% [4] - Other revenue was $333 million, below the estimate of $352.60 million, with a slight year-over-year increase of 0.6% [4] Stock Performance - Expedia shares returned +3% over the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11.3% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Market Overview - Markets experienced a rise due to optimistic sentiment surrounding trade deals with U.S. partners, particularly following an agreement with the UK that maintained a +10% tariff [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by +254 points (+0.62%), while the S&P 500 rose by +0.58%. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 saw even larger gains of +1.07% and +1.85%, respectively [2] Earnings Reports - Expedia (EXPE) reported Q1 earnings of $0.40 per share, missing the Zacks consensus of $0.42, despite a +90% year-over-year increase. Revenues were $2.99 billion, below the expected $3.03 billion, leading to a -6.7% decline in after-hours trading [3] - Affirm (AFRM) exceeded bottom line expectations with earnings of +$0.01 per share against a forecast of -$0.08. Revenues matched estimates at $783 million, while Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) rose +36% year over year. However, shares fell -8% in late trading [3] - DraftKings (DKNG) reported a bottom line of -$0.07 per share, an improvement from the projected -$0.30. Revenues of $1.41 billion grew +20% year over year but missed the Zacks consensus of $1.42 billion. The company lowered revenue guidance and adjusted EBITDA forecasts, yet shares rose +3% in post-market trading [4]

Financial Performance - Tripadvisor Group's LTM Q1 2025 revenue was $929 million, with 10% year-over-year growth[13] - Viator's LTM Q1 2025 revenue was $855 million, showing a 12% year-over-year growth[13] - TheFork's LTM Q1 2025 revenue reached $186 million, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth[13] - Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $44 million[69] - The company's liquidity position as of March 31, 2025, was $1,651 million[28] Segment Highlights - Brand Tripadvisor has approximately 300 million monthly unique users and over 100 million active members[43] - Viator's FY2024 Gross Booking Value (GBV) exceeded $4 billion[55] - Viator offers approximately 400,000 bookable experiences[55] - TheFork operates in 11 countries and features over 55,000 bookable restaurants[66] Strategic Focus - The company is progressing with an engagement-led strategy through product delivery, balancing scale, growth, profitability, and market share[11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q1 2025 was $398 million, representing a 1% growth or approximately 3% growth in constant currency, driven by marketplace businesses [6][20] - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $44 million, or 11% of revenue, exceeding expectations due to revenue outperformance and lower fixed costs [20][28] - Gross booking value (GBV) grew 10% or 12% in constant currency to approximately $1.1 billion [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Viator's revenue grew 10% to $156 million, with bookings growth of 15% [23][24] - Brand TripAdvisor's revenue was $219 million, a decline of 8%, but adjusted EBITDA was $65 million, representing 30% of revenue [10][24] - The Fork's revenue grew 12% or 16% in constant currency to $46 million, with a significant increase in B2B software subscriptions [15][27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America remained the largest source market for Viator, with stable booking windows year over year [22] - The US share of international travel from certain source markets, particularly Canada, is down, while domestic travel share is up [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be the most trusted source for travel and experiences, focusing on diversifying its portfolio and optimizing legacy offerings [5][6] - There is a strong emphasis on leveraging AI to enhance user experience and operational efficiency across all segments [16][17] - The merger with Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings has simplified the capital structure and is expected to unlock new opportunities for growth and shareholder engagement [5][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges macroeconomic uncertainties but remains confident in the long-term growth potential of travel and experiences [19][20] - Travel sentiment remains positive, with consumers planning leisure travel and prioritizing experiences in their budgets [19][68] - The company is closely monitoring early signs of pressure in average booking value and cancellation rates [18][20] Other Important Information - The company raised $350 million in an add-on to its existing Term Loan B and expects to use the proceeds to pay down convertible notes due in 2026 [29][30] - The company plans to restart its share repurchase program with approximately $200 million remaining under its existing authorization [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance and macro uncertainty - Management is comfortable with the current guidance framework but acknowledges macro uncertainty as a reason for not adjusting guidance upward [39][41] Question: Impact of Liberty buyout - The completion of the Liberty buyout simplifies the capital structure and allows for a clearer focus on value drivers [42][43] Question: Viator margins and marketing - Management believes Viator can achieve OTA-like margins through product-led growth and improved marketing efficiency [48][49] Question: Cross-border exposure and marketing adjustments - Viator is predominantly a North American booker base, making it less susceptible to international trade route pressures [52] Question: Google auction changes - Management is actively involved in optimizing ad placements and formats on Google, viewing it as an opportunity for incremental traffic [58] Question: Average booking value decline - The decline in average booking value is primarily due to a higher mix of third-party bookings, which generally have lower price points [59][60] Question: Travel spending in a slower consumer environment - Historically, consumers defend travel spending, particularly on experiences, even during economic slowdowns [66][68] Question: Hotel Meta pricing improvement - Improvements in user experience and content have driven pricing uplifts in Hotel Meta, contributing to better monetization [70][72] Question: Viator marketing strategy - The marketing strategy for Viator remains focused on utilizing paid channels effectively to convert demand [90][92]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic climate, characterized by a trade war and uncertainty, may not seem favorable for investing in discretionary travel stocks like Booking Holdings [1] Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for investment in Booking Holdings despite the ongoing trade war and economic uncertainty [1] - The author expresses a personal interest in uncovering investment opportunities across various sectors, including equities and cryptocurrencies [1] - The author has a background in communications and an MBA, indicating a level of expertise in investment analysis [1] Group 2 - There is a disclosure stating that the author does not hold any positions in the mentioned companies but may consider initiating a long position in Booking Holdings within the next 72 hours [2] - The article emphasizes that the views expressed are personal opinions and not influenced by any compensation or business relationships [2][4] - The author encourages readers to conduct their own due diligence regarding investment decisions [3]

Group 1 - The domestic tourism market in China shows a strong recovery during the "May Day" holiday, with multiple trends emerging, including family travel and pet-friendly outings [2][3] - Long-distance travel destinations have performed exceptionally well, with ticket sales for scenic spots in regions like Qinghai, Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Gansu seeing significant year-on-year growth of 1-2 times [2] - The number of inbound travel orders has surged by 130% compared to last year, with new experiences such as agricultural tourism and "China shopping" becoming popular among foreign tourists [2] Group 2 - The trend of family travel is on the rise, with 35% of car rental orders on Ctrip being for family trips, an increase of 11 percentage points [3] - The self-driving travel market is experiencing an upgrade in consumption, with average car rental spending increasing by 24% year-on-year and the average rental duration extending to 4 days [3] - The cruise tourism market has fully recovered, with bookings for cruise products during the holiday increasing by 120% compared to last year and 140% compared to 2019 [4] Group 3 - The integration of national cultural elements into tourism is deepening, with searches for intangible cultural heritage-themed tours skyrocketing and related ticket bookings increasing by 132% [4] - A reverse tourism trend is emerging, focusing on escaping crowds and enhancing experiences, with rural tourism bookings rising by nearly 20% during the holiday [4] - The market is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality upgrade," reflecting a strong demand for differentiated experiences in tourism [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [30] - The industry investment rating is "Outperform," suggesting an expected industry index increase of over 5% within the same timeframe [30] Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market indices rose, with a net inflow of 1.185 billion CNY from the Hong Kong Stock Connect over five trading days, totaling 568.747 billion CNY year-to-date, which is 76.44% of the total net inflow for 2024 [1] - Major stocks receiving significant southbound capital inflows include Meituan (4.949 billion CNY), Alibaba (1.355 billion CNY), and Kangfang Biotech (0.753 billion CNY) [1][25] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently at a relatively low valuation, with a projected PE of 14 times for 2026 [1] Summary by Sections AI Developments - Alibaba Cloud launched the Qwen3 series, with flagship model Qwen3-235B achieving a score of 70.7 in benchmark tests [2] - Xiaomi released its first inference model, MiMo-7B, which outperformed larger models in mathematical reasoning and coding tasks [9] Smart Driving - Short-term policy tightening on low-level smart driving promotions is expected, but high-level smart driving may still receive policy support [2] - The trend of mainstream manufacturers adopting LiDAR technology is confirmed, with a positive outlook for leading manufacturers like XPeng, Xiaomi, and Li Auto [2] OTA and Tourism - Domestic tourism remains strong, with a nearly 20% year-on-year increase in domestic scenic spot ticket bookings and a 141% increase in inbound travel orders [3] - The AI application "Ask One" by Fliggy has received positive feedback, indicating a growing trend for AI agents in travel services [3] Cross-Border E-commerce - The U.S. has ended the tariff exemption for small packages from China valued under 800 USD, leading to price increases on platforms like TEMU and Shein [3] - A shift from full to semi-managed and local warehousing is anticipated, with a recommendation to monitor policy implementation closely [3] New Listings - Companies like Seres and Mingming Hen Mang have submitted IPO applications, with Seres focusing on electric vehicles and Mingming Hen Mang being the largest chain retailer in China [4] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 21,980.74 points, reflecting a 2.74% increase [10] - The report highlights the performance of various stocks, with Alibaba's market cap at 205.12 billion CNY and a projected PE of 12 for 2025 [20]