Report Overview - The report is a macro team report from the research center, dated May 14, 2025, focusing on the performance of global asset markets [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On May 13, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.467, 4.669, 3.353 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.010 (Japan) to 0.038 (South Korea). Weekly changes varied from - 0.001 (Brazil) to 0.217 (Japan), monthly changes from - 0.124 (Italy) to 0.136 (Japan), and annual changes from - 1.034 (Japan) to 0.323 (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On May 13, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.880, 3.974, 1.932 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.020 (US and UK) to 0.092 (Australia). Weekly changes varied from - 0.051 (China 1Y) to 0.230 (US), monthly changes from - 0.095 (South Korea) to 0.225 (Australia), and annual changes from - 1.363 (Italy) to 0.430 (Japan) [3] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On May 13, 2025, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.608 with a latest change of - 1.19%. Weekly changes varied from - 1.86% (Brazil) to 2.12% (Malaysian ringgit), monthly changes from - 5.66% (South Africa) to - 2.83% (South Korea), and annual changes from - 10.36% (Thai baht) to 7.99% (Brazil) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On May 13, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 5886.550, 42140.430, 19010.080 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 1.87% (Hang Seng Index) to 1.61% (NASDAQ). Weekly changes varied from - (Russia) to 7.46% (NASDAQ), monthly changes from - (Russia) to 16.00% (NASDAQ), and annual changes from - 11.23% (Thailand) to 31.82% (Germany's DAX) [3] Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, and emerging - market investment - grade credit bond indices were 0.06%, - 0.01%, 0.01% respectively. Weekly changes were - 0.26%, - 0.13%, - 0.12%, monthly changes were 1.45%, 0.70%, 1.12%, and annual changes were 6.63%, 5.87%, 7.33% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3374.87, 3896.26, 2708.06, 2062.26, 5781.67 respectively, with涨跌（%） of 0.17, 0.15, 0.20, - 0.12, - 0.21 [5] Valuation - The PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany's DAX were 12.57, 10.93, 29.14, 25.18, 18.98 respectively, with环比变化 of 0.03, 0.04, - 0.08, 0.18, 0.06 [5] Risk Premium - The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and Germany's DAX were - 0.50, 2.59 respectively, with环比变化 of - 0.03, - 0.05 [5] Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were - 959.81, - 591.43, -, - 302.57, - 115.58 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 514.16, - 328.65, -, - 139.64, - 12.26 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, and ChiNext were 12915.25, 2675.86, 693.58, 2838.92, 3682.05 respectively, with环比变化 of - 168.85, - 285.37, - 95.22, 10.37, 0.61 [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 45.26, - 19.86, - 127.07 respectively, with a basis ratio of - 1.16%, - 0.73%, - 2.20% [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data Treasury Futures - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.715, 105.955, 108.890, 106.265 respectively, with涨跌（%） of - 0.49%, - 0.19%, - 0.45%, - 0.20% [6] Funding Rates - The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4343%, 1.5337%, 1.6620% respectively, with daily changes of - 12.00BP, - 2.00BP, - 1.00BP [6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The interbank foreign exchange market shows a depreciation of the Renminbi against various currencies, indicating a strengthening of the Renminbi overall [1] Currency Exchange Rates - The USD/CNY exchange rate is reported at 7.1991, down by 75 points, reflecting a Renminbi appreciation [1] - The EUR/CNY exchange rate is at 8.0017, down by 1057 points, indicating a significant Renminbi strengthening against the Euro [1] - The HKD/CNY exchange rate is at 0.92374, down by 26.5 points, showing a slight Renminbi appreciation against the Hong Kong Dollar [1] - The GBP/CNY exchange rate is at 9.5047, down by 868 points, suggesting a notable Renminbi appreciation against the British Pound [1] - The AUD/CNY exchange rate is at 4.5980, down by 413 points, indicating a Renminbi strengthening against the Australian Dollar [1] - The CAD/CNY exchange rate is at 5.1623, down by 241 points, reflecting a Renminbi appreciation against the Canadian Dollar [1] - The JPY/CNY exchange rate is at 4.8633, down by 913 points, showing a significant Renminbi strengthening against the Japanese Yen [1] - The CNY/RUB exchange rate is at 11.2425, down by 1580 points, indicating a Renminbi appreciation against the Russian Ruble [1] - The NZD/CNY exchange rate is at 4.2270, down by 529 points, reflecting a Renminbi strengthening against the New Zealand Dollar [1] - The CNY/MYR exchange rate is at 0.59787, up by 20.7 points, indicating a slight depreciation of the Renminbi against the Malaysian Ringgit [1] - The CHF/CNY exchange rate is at 8.5355, down by 1183 points, suggesting a Renminbi appreciation against the Swiss Franc [1] - The SGD/CNY exchange rate is at 5.5249, down by 388 points, indicating a Renminbi strengthening against the Singapore Dollar [1]

5月12日亚洲交易时段早盘，美元/日元汇率在146.00整数关口下方承压回落，自月初触及的月度高点147.00附近震荡下行。市场情绪在贸易协议乐观预期与 地缘政治风险间反复拉锯，导致美元多头暂缓攻势，避险货币日元获得阶段性支撑。 美元指数在亚洲时段维持高位震荡，上周五触及4月10日以来新高105.50后小幅回调。美联储官员近期持续释放"鹰派暂停"信号，强调降息需等待更明确通 胀回落证据，这为美元提供结构性支撑。技术面显示，美元/日元汇率在3-4月跌势的50%斐波那契回撤位(145.55)上方获得支撑，日线级震荡指标重返积极区 域，小时图呈现看涨形态，暗示后续反弹可能测试61.8%回撤位146.80-146.85区间。若突破该阻力带，147.00整数关口及前高147.35将进入攻击范围。 下行风险聚焦关键支撑位 下行方面，145.55区域构成第一道防线，失守可能引发加速下跌，目标直指145.00心理关口。该位置与4小时图200周期均线(144.98)重叠，若被有效跌破，技 术性抛售可能将汇价压低至144.45附近，甚至考验144.00整数支撑。值得注意的是，日本央行政策转向时点与美联储降息预期差，仍将是决定中期 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by trade negotiations, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, global central bank policy dynamics, and geopolitical risks [1][6] - The focus of the market is on the progress of tariff negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve policies, and the performance of global economic data, with geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties remaining key factors affecting market sentiment [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index showed a fluctuating trend, opening around 99.8, reaching a high of 100.64, with an increase of approximately 1.03% [3] - Initially pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain interest rates, the dollar rebounded after comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and trade policy, closing at 100.42 [3] - The dollar exhibited "bull-bear divergence," with investors remaining cautious due to the complexity of US economic data and global economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Euro and Pound Performance - The euro experienced a volatile week, initially rising for two consecutive trading days before declining on Wednesday and Thursday, closing with a slight rebound at 1.12511 [3] - The euro is expected to face long-term resistance at 1.2150, with insufficient upward momentum, likely maintaining a narrow ascending channel in the short term [3] - The British pound weakened due to uncertainties surrounding the Bank of England's interest rate decision and economic data, closing around 1.3300 [3] Group 4: Safe-Haven and Commodity Currencies - Safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc performed poorly this week, with the USD/JPY pair showing a V-shaped trend as market risk aversion eased amid tariff negotiations [4] - Commodity currencies were mixed, with the Australian dollar weakening due to global economic growth concerns and commodity price fluctuations, while the Canadian dollar stabilized and rebounded due to rising oil prices [5] Group 5: Global Central Bank Dynamics - Several central banks maintained their policies this week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which continued their accommodative stances [7] - The Norwegian central bank kept high interest rates to address rising inflation [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority took actions to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, emphasizing the importance of regional financial stability [6][7]

Group 1 - The article provides a summary of key forex trading terms, aimed at enhancing understanding of trading strategies and tools [1][11]. - Terms such as "Manual," "Multiplier," and "Pip steps" are explained, highlighting their roles in trading strategies like Martingale and grid trading [2][6]. - The concept of "Recovery mode" is introduced, which allows automated trading systems (EAs) to adopt more aggressive strategies to recover losses [7]. Group 2 - "Maximum spread" is defined as a limit to prevent trading during high volatility periods, ensuring that trades are not executed with excessive spreads [12]. - "Trade comments" are described as annotations attached to trades, which help identify the EA that executed the order and can include personal contact information from traders [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to resume interest rate hikes if the economy meets expectations, indicating a high probability of rate increases after two pauses [1][3] - The BOJ is closely monitoring price trends due to high global economic uncertainty, which has influenced its recent decisions to pause rate hikes [1][3] - Japan's inflation rate is currently at 3.6%, with core CPI at 3.2%, indicating a high inflation environment that necessitates continued interest rate increases [4] Group 2 - The BOJ's monetary policy is the key factor determining the direction of the Japanese yen, with projected rate hikes of 20 basis points in March 2024, 15 basis points in July 2024, and 25 basis points in January 2025 [3] - The divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the U.S. suggests that the yen could benefit during a period of dollar weakness, as Japan's inflation remains elevated while the U.S. is reducing rates [4] - The USDJPY is currently in a significant bearish trend, with recent lows at 146.5 and 139.8, but has entered a rebound phase since April 22, 2024 [6]

Long-term Trend Analysis Framework - Structural driving factors include interest rate differentials, economic growth differences, and purchasing power parity (PPP) [1] - The Australian dollar to US dollar (AUD/USD) fell by 40% from 2011 to 2015 due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's continuous interest rate cuts [1] - OECD leading indicators show that when the US PMI exceeds the Eurozone by 3 percentage points, EUR/USD depreciates by an average of 5% annually [1] - The Taylor rule model can predict policy interest rate paths [1] - The US dollar has long-term deviations from PPP of about 15%, but it tends to revert to the mean over a 10-year cycle [1] Cyclical Analysis Models - The Kitchin cycle (3-4 years) reflects inventory adjustments affecting short-term fluctuations in commodity currencies [2] - The Juglar cycle (8-10 years) is driven by capital expenditure cycles impacting currency pairs like AUD/JPY [2] - The Kuznets cycle (15-25 years) shows a linkage between real estate cycles and currencies like CAD/CHF [2] - During the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, the US dollar appreciated by an average of 12% from 1994 to 2000 [2] Quantitative Analysis Tools - Trend identification can be achieved through the crossover of 150-day and 300-day EMAs [3] - The ADX indicator confirms trend strength, with values above 25 indicating strong trends [3] - The Hurst exponent is used to assess trend persistence, with values greater than 0.5 indicating trend continuation [3] Practical Strategy Development - In an expansion phase, strategies include going long on commodity currencies and managing positions using the Kelly formula [5] - In a recession phase, strategies involve going long on USD/JPY and employing volatility strategies [5] Cutting-edge Research Areas - The impact of carbon border taxes on euro pricing and the correlation between the El Niño index and AUD/BRL are being studied [6] - The interaction between stablecoin liquidity and the offshore dollar market is a focus area [6] - Development of a Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) to analyze dynamic relationships with Middle Eastern currencies [6] Classic Case Reviews - The 1992 British pound crisis was influenced by rising German interest rates while the UK maintained its exchange rate mechanism [7] - The 2015 Swiss franc decoupling was a result of contradictions between the Swiss National Bank's balance sheet expansion and its exchange rate policy [7] - The 2020 pandemic caused a liquidity crisis in the dollar market, leading to a sudden collapse of carry trades [7] Summary - Effective long-term cycle analysis requires a multi-layered framework that includes macro factors, market structure, and behavioral finance [8] - A mixed strategy of 70% trend following and 30% cycle adjustment is recommended, with a focus on monitoring the US 10-year Treasury volatility index (MOVE) and global forex liquidity indicators (FXLI) as leading indicators [8] - Attention should be given to the global debt cycle, which has reached a historical peak of 327% of global GDP, impacting currency valuation systems [8]

Group 1: Major Currency Pairs - EUR/USD is influenced by the policy divergence between the Fed and ECB, with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in 2022 boosting the dollar [1]. - Economic data comparisons such as GDP, CPI, and various economic indices are critical for EUR/USD analysis [1]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on European energy supply, affect the euro's performance [2]. - The USD/JPY pair is driven by the interest rate differential and the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy, with adjustments in policy leading to significant currency movements [4][5]. - The USD/JPY is also affected by global risk sentiment, with a negative correlation to the VIX index [6]. - GBP/USD is shaped by the Bank of England's policy challenges, particularly balancing persistent inflation above 10% with recession risks [9]. - Post-Brexit trade issues and high energy prices further complicate the GBP/USD outlook [10][11]. Group 2: Commodity Currency Pairs - AUD/USD is primarily driven by commodity prices, especially iron ore, which constitutes 40% of Australia's exports [13]. - Changes in Chinese demand, particularly in real estate, significantly impact AUD/USD [14]. - The USD/CAD pair is influenced by oil prices, with Canada being the fourth-largest oil exporter globally [18]. - The Canadian economy's reliance on U.S. trade, with over 75% of exports going to the U.S., also plays a crucial role in USD/CAD dynamics [20]. Group 3: Safe-Haven Currency Pairs - USD/CHF is affected by European political risks, with the Swiss franc acting as a safe haven during crises [22]. - The Swiss economy's low inflation and high current account surplus support the long-term appreciation of the franc [23]. - Gold (XAU/USD) is influenced by geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases, with significant demand seen in 2022 [27]. Group 4: Emerging Market Currency Pairs - The USD/TRY pair is impacted by extreme inflation in Turkey, which exceeded 80% in 2023, alongside irrational monetary policy decisions [32]. - The Turkish lira's depreciation is exacerbated by insufficient foreign reserves covering less than three months of imports [33]. - Geopolitical risks related to Turkey's relations with the U.S. and Europe also affect investor confidence [34]. Group 5: Fundamental Analysis Tools - Economic indicators are prioritized differently for various currency pairs, with CPI differences and central bank decisions being top indicators for EUR/USD [36]. - Data release timings, such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, are critical for market volatility [37]. - A comprehensive analysis framework is essential for understanding the dynamics of currency pairs, focusing on both long-term structural factors and short-term events [46].

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing significant volatility, with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and foreign currencies gaining strength amidst geopolitical risks and inflation concerns Group 1: Safe-Haven Assets - Gold is gaining prominence due to central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, highlighting its value retention properties [2] - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate as the Bank of Japan signals tightening, making it an attractive option for short-term forex arbitrage [2] - The Swiss franc is viewed as a safe haven amid European instability, bolstered by the recovery of trust in the Swiss banking sector [3] Group 2: Alternative Assets - Bitcoin is being recognized for its anti-inflation properties following the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs, although its volatility remains a concern [4] - Rare earth resources are becoming strategic assets due to supply constraints and rising prices, making them suitable for long-term investment [4] Group 3: Pitfalls of Pseudo-Safe Assets - Oil is facing demand weakness despite OPEC+ production cuts, leading to a return to its commodity nature [5] - Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are losing appeal due to rising interest rates, increasing liquidity risks [5] - Emerging market bonds are under pressure from a strong dollar, with heightened default risks in countries like Turkey and Argentina [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Conservative strategy suggests a portfolio of 60% gold ETFs, 30% yen cash, and 10% government bond reverse repos [6] - Aggressive strategy includes 50% Bitcoin, 30% rare earth stocks, and 20% Swiss franc deposits [6] - Balanced strategy recommends dollar-cost averaging in gold, holding Bitcoin, and hedging with yen forex options [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The search for the next "gold" is ongoing, with potential shifts in value driven by blockchain technology and green energy [7] - The core principles of scarcity and consensus value remain central to identifying safe-haven assets [7]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has drawn significant attention as it broke below the psychological level of 140, declining by as much as 0.7% to reach 139.90, marking the strongest level since September of the previous year [1] - The strong movement of the yen is influenced by complex economic and policy backgrounds, including heightened market risk aversion due to the ongoing trade war initiated by Trump, leading investors to sell US assets in favor of safe-haven assets like the yen [3] - Technical analysis indicates that if the yen clearly breaks the 140 level or the mid-level of 139 reached in September of last year, it could trigger further buying of yen and selling of USD, accelerating the yen's appreciation [4] Group 2 - The rapid fluctuations in the exchange rate are viewed negatively by many in the economic community, as they increase operational risks for businesses and disrupt normal international trade [5] - Despite the USD/JPY not significantly declining after breaking the 140 level, the overarching theme of "selling America" persists, indicating ongoing concerns about the US economic outlook [5] - The Bank of Japan currently sees no need to change its gradual rate hike stance, although market expectations for a rate hike have shifted, with the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of the year now at 59% [5]