Core Viewpoint - Advancements in electronic trading and algorithmic trading are significantly reducing volatility in the currency market, leading to a calmer trading environment that may impact market makers' profitability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The foreign-exchange market, valued at $7.5 trillion a day, is experiencing near-record low volatility, marking a long-term decline despite occasional spikes due to events like US trade tariffs [2][4]. - The euro's intraday movements are currently less than half of the long-term average, contrasting with Treasury yields that are fluctuating in line with historical patterns [4]. Group 2: Impact of Electronic Trading - The ability for volatility to decrease rapidly has increased significantly, with market reactions to economic data now returning to normal within 30 seconds, compared to longer durations previously [3][5]. - The changing landscape of market participants, including the rise of pod shops and competing systematic strategies, is contributing to a more stable trading environment [6]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The rarity of significant volatility events is leading asset managers to adjust their strategies, moving away from using calm periods to acquire cheap hedges against potential market flare-ups [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Macro Outlook**, focusing on **US Rates**, **International Rates**, **Commodities**, **Currencies**, and **Emerging Markets** [3][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - Risks to the front end of the yield curve are biased lower due to labor market weakness, while concerns about Fed independence are pushing long-end rates higher [3][15]. - The first Fed cut is projected for **September 2025**, with expectations of **four sequential cuts**, bringing the funds rate target range to **3.25-3.5%** by **1Q26** [12][11]. - Anticipated **2-year Treasury yields** are expected to reach **3.50%** and **10-year yields** to **4.20%** by the end of **2025** [12][11]. International Rates - Developed market (DM) curves have steepened, particularly in the US, amid renewed focus on the long end of the curve [4][36]. - The European policy easing is losing momentum, impacting the overall yield curve dynamics [36]. Commodities - The oil market is expected to face a significant surplus, with price forecasts remaining unchanged for now due to uncertainties surrounding China's stock build [8][88]. - The European natural gas market is entering winter with historically low storage levels, leading to a bullish stance for **4Q25** and a price target of **42 EUR/MWh** [8][93]. - Copper prices are anticipated to face bearish pressure, potentially dropping to **$9,000/mt** due to unwinding demand from the US and China [8]. Currencies - The US dollar has not weakened despite recent yield curve steepening, attributed to domestic growth factors [56][58]. - Concerns regarding Fed independence and fiscal excesses are influencing the dollar's performance, with expectations of a bearish outlook [58][63]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be a key differentiator for FX, with the hypothesis that fiscal easing supports currencies in low-debt countries [63][59]. Emerging Markets - The resilience of global growth and downside risks in the US are supporting emerging market (EM) local markets [8]. - A recommendation to stay overweight (OW) in EM FX and local rates, while maintaining a market weight (MW) in EM corporates and underweight (UW) in EM sovereigns [8]. Additional Important Insights - The US Treasury is well-funded through **FY25**, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in **FY26**, prompting coupon auction size increases starting in **May 2026** [19][22]. - The passage of the **OBBBA** is projected to lead to a surge in T-bill issuance, with an estimated **$529 billion** of net T-bill issuance expected in the current quarter [25][23]. - Demand from foreign investors remains weak, with expectations of a shift towards more price-insensitive demand in the Treasury market [29][31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various markets.

Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has faced downward pressure, recently trading around 0.5870 against the US dollar, influenced by a slight rebound in the dollar and declining inflation data from China [1][3] - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, which was below market expectations, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures due to weak domestic demand and oversupply of industrial goods [3][6] - The weak CPI in China may indirectly affect New Zealand's exports, as China is a major trading partner, leading to increased volatility in the NZD/USD exchange rate [3][6] Group 2 - The US CPI for August showed the largest year-on-year increase in seven months, although it was still below general market expectations, raising concerns about future US monetary policy [3][4] - Market participants are focusing on key upcoming economic indicators, including China's CPI and economic performance, as well as the US consumer confidence index, which may influence short-term currency fluctuations [6] - Analysts emphasize the importance of understanding trends and risks rather than relying solely on specific data points for investment decisions, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [4][6]

Core Insights - The launch of 0xMarkets by Taoshi and General TAO Ventures aims to integrate digital assets with the $7.5 trillion foreign exchange market [1][3] - The platform will facilitate trading between multiple fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies, focusing on acquiring liquidity as a key to success [2][5] Company Overview - Taoshi is leveraging the Bittensor blockchain to create a decentralized exchange that allows for currency swaps, including major fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum [2][3] - The platform's design is inspired by Curve Finance's token model to attract and retain liquidity providers [3][6] Market Context - The foreign exchange market is the largest financial market globally, with an average daily trading volume of approximately $7.5 trillion [3] - Previous attempts to establish a blockchain-based forex market have largely failed, indicating the challenges in this sector [4] Liquidity Strategy - A stable and substantial liquidity base is essential for the success of forex trading, especially given the small daily price movements in national currencies [5] - 0xMarkets will utilize a Bittensor subnet as a liquidity-as-a-service engine, allowing liquidity providers to earn fees by depositing USDC stablecoin [5][6] Incentive Mechanism - Liquidity providers will also receive emissions of the subnet's alpha token, which will serve as a governance token, allowing holders to influence market dynamics [6][7] - The dual rewards system aims to attract sufficient liquidity to ensure the market's functionality and sustainability [7]

Core Insights - Currency Exchange International, Corp. reported a net income of $4.2 million for Q3 2025, an 8% increase year-over-year, despite a net loss of $1.0 million from its discontinued subsidiary, Exchange Bank of Canada [1][2][6] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $21.3 million, a 7% increase from $20.0 million in Q3 2024, driven by growth in Payments and Banknotes revenue [2][7] - Reported EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $8.1 million, up 4% from $7.8 million in the prior year, while adjusted EBITDA was $8.2 million, a 5% increase [2][7] - Adjusted net income decreased by 10% to $4.1 million compared to $4.6 million in the prior year [2][7] Operational Highlights - The Group processed 51,727 payment transactions worth $1.77 billion in Q3 2025, compared to 40,859 transactions worth $1.36 billion in the prior period [11] - The Group opened a new company-owned location in Scottsdale, Arizona, and added 138 new non-airport locations across the U.S. [11] - The Group increased its banknotes market penetration by adding 31 new financial institution clients in Q3 2025 [11] Strategic Decisions - The Group announced the cessation of operations for its subsidiary, Exchange Bank of Canada, effective February 18, 2025, with plans to apply for discontinuance from the Bank Act in Q4 2025 [3] - Management anticipates that the annualized operating expenses previously shared with EBC will be approximately $3 million after tax, fully borne by continuing operations [3] Shareholder Actions - The Group repurchased 282,400 common shares for a total of $4.25 million under a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) [4] - The shares were purchased at normal market prices, with 190,300 shares cancelled prior to September 10, 2025 [4] Market Position - The Group upgraded its U.S. securities listing to the OTCQX Best Market under the symbol CURN on May 20, 2025 [5] - The Group maintains a strong financial position with total equity of $83.8 million and net working capital of $67.6 million as of July 31, 2025 [2][7]

Core Viewpoint - Currency Exchange International, Corp. reported a net income of $4.2 million for Q3 2025, an 8% increase year-over-year, despite a 10% decrease in adjusted net income due to the discontinuation of operations at its Canadian subsidiary [1][4][10]. Financial Performance - Reported net income for Q3 2025 was $4.2 million, up 8% from the previous year, while adjusted net income decreased by 10% to $4.1 million [1][10]. - EBITDA for Q3 2025 was reported at $8.1 million, a 4% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA at $8.2 million, reflecting a 5% increase [2][10]. - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $21.3 million, a 7% increase compared to $20.0 million in the prior year, driven by growth in Payments and Banknotes revenue [10][12]. Operational Highlights - The Group's Payments revenue increased by 24% year-over-year, while Banknotes revenue rose by 4% [10][12]. - The Group processed 51,727 payment transactions worth $1.77 billion in Q3 2025, compared to 40,859 transactions worth $1.36 billion in the prior period [12]. - The Group opened a new company-owned location in Scottsdale, Arizona, and added 138 new non-airport locations across the U.S. [12]. Strategic Developments - The decision to cease operations of the Exchange Bank of Canada was announced on February 18, 2025, with the subsidiary classified as discontinued operations starting Q2 2025 [5][10]. - The Group's capital position remained strong, with total equity of $83.8 million and net working capital of $67.6 million as of July 31, 2025 [4][10]. Shareholder Actions - The Group repurchased a total of 282,400 common shares for $4.25 million under a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) [6][10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report provides insights into various asset classes including equities, fixed income, foreign exchange (FX), and commodities, with a focus on market sentiment and positioning as of August 29, 2025. Key Highlights Equities - **S&P 500**: Closed at 6,460, with a forecast range for Q2 2026 between 4,900 (bear) and 7,200 (bull), indicating a potential return of -22.9% in a bear case and 12.7% in a bull case [3][7]. - **MSCI Europe**: Closed at 2,198, with a forecast range of 1,610 (bear) to 2,620 (bull), showing a bear case return of -23.6% and a bull case return of 22.4% [3]. - **Topix**: Closed at 3,075, with a forecast range of 2,100 (bear) to 3,250 (bull), indicating a bear case return of -29.5% [3]. - **MSCI Emerging Markets (EM)**: Closed at 1,258, with a forecast range of 870 (bear) to 1,360 (bull), showing a bear case return of -28.4% [3]. Foreign Exchange (FX) - **Japanese Yen (JPY)**: Forecasted to weaken to 147 against the USD, with a bear case return of 17.3% [3]. - **Euro (EUR)**: Expected to trade at 1.17 against the USD, with a bear case return of -4.4% [3]. - **Indian Rupee (INR)**: Reached an all-time low of 88.2 against the USD, with a forecast of 12.5% return in a bear case [11][12]. Fixed Income - **UST 10-Year**: Yield at 4.23%, with a forecast range of 3.45% (bull) to 4.00% (base) [3]. - **US Investment Grade (IG) Bonds**: Yield spread at 79 bps, with a bear case return of -2.7% [3]. Commodities - **Brent Crude Oil**: Closed at $68, with a forecast range of $50 (bear) to $120 (bull), indicating a bear case return of -24.2% [3]. - **Gold**: Closed at $3,429, with a forecast range of $2,975 (bear) to $4,200 (bull), showing a bear case return of -17.2% [3]. Market Sentiment and Positioning - The **Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI)** aggregates survey positioning, volatility, and momentum data to quantify market stress and sentiment, indicating a mixed sentiment across various asset classes [53][58]. - **Equity Positioning**: US equities show a net positioning of 28% among asset managers, while EM equities show a higher net positioning of 42% [66]. - **Bond Positioning**: UST 10-Year shows a net positioning of 38% among asset managers [66]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring fund flows across approximately 5,000 ETFs globally, covering around $7 trillion in assets, to gauge demand across assets and regions [22]. - The **COVA (Correlation-Valuation) scorecard** identifies good portfolio diversifiers at reasonable prices, rewarding assets with negative correlation to equities and attractive valuations [85]. Conclusion - The current market environment reflects significant volatility and mixed sentiment across various asset classes, with potential risks and opportunities identified in equities, fixed income, FX, and commodities. Investors are advised to consider these factors in their investment decisions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the G10 foreign exchange (FX) market, particularly the risk premium associated with various currencies, including the USD, EUR, JPY, and others. Core Insights and Arguments - **Risk Premium Analysis**: The USD-negative risk premium has increased significantly, especially in European currencies, with the Swedish Krona (SEK) and Swiss Franc (CHF) showing approximately 10% strength compared to pre-Liberation Day relationships [7][12][13]. - **European Currencies**: European currencies exhibit both USD-negative and currency-positive risk premiums, indicating a more favorable outlook compared to dollar bloc currencies [7][12]. - **USD/JPY Valuation**: The USD/JPY pair is trading slightly above its fair value, suggesting that the JPY-negative risk premium may outweigh the USD-negative risk premium [7][12][38]. - **Investor Sentiment**: There is a noted underestimation of the risks associated with a non-linear USD sell-off, particularly as US interest rates begin to reflect potential cuts of 75-100 basis points [7][46]. - **Currency Performance**: The GBP has a more pronounced USD-negative risk premium than other risk-sensitive currencies, potentially due to the UK's fiscal outlook [16]. The NZD and AUD have shown weaker performance, reflecting their sensitivity to global growth and trade dynamics [35]. Additional Important Insights - **Hedging Dynamics**: The increased FX-specific positive risk premium in European currencies is attributed to hedging dynamics and a general optimism across Europe [7][12]. - **Market Predictions**: The expectation of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with risks skewed towards more cuts, suggests that the USD may weaken sooner than anticipated [47]. - **Trade Recommendations**: The report includes specific trade ideas, such as maintaining long positions in EUR/USD and GBP/CHF, while shorting USD/JPY, with defined targets and stop-loss levels [48][49]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment remains USD-negative, driven by anticipated lower US rates and increased policy uncertainty, which is expected to reduce the USD's fair value and increase its risk premium [45][46].

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's foreign exchange market recorded a total transaction volume of 28.28 trillion yuan (approximately 3.96 trillion USD) [1] - The customer market transactions by banks amounted to 4.06 trillion yuan (about 0.57 trillion USD), while interbank market transactions reached 24.22 trillion yuan (around 3.39 trillion USD) [1] - The spot market had a cumulative transaction of 9.47 trillion yuan (approximately 1.33 trillion USD), and the derivatives market totaled 18.81 trillion yuan (about 2.63 trillion USD) [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in China's foreign exchange market was 179.15 trillion yuan (equivalent to 24.96 trillion USD) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market exhibits cyclical patterns driven by economic, policy, seasonal, emotional, and geopolitical factors [11] Group 1: Reasons for Cycles in the Forex Market - Economic cycles directly influence currency strength, with strong economies typically leading to currency appreciation and weak economies to depreciation [2] - Central bank policies, particularly interest rate cycles, are key drivers, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy often setting the trend for the dollar [2] - Seasonal patterns can cause specific currencies to exhibit regular fluctuations during certain months or quarters [2] - Market sentiment oscillates between greed and fear, impacting the performance of high-risk currencies versus safe-haven currencies [2] - Geopolitical events have their own cycles, affecting related currencies during periods of tension or resolution [2] Group 2: Identifying and Utilizing Forex Cycles - Monitoring central bank policies and economic indicators like GDP and inflation is crucial for understanding macro trends [3] - Technical analysis tools such as moving averages and oscillators can help identify market trends and potential reversal points [4] - Market sentiment can be gauged through the VIX index and CFTC positioning reports, indicating potential shifts in risk appetite [5][6] Group 3: Practical Applications of Cycles - Traders should align their strategies with prevailing cycles, such as capitalizing on the end of a rate hike cycle [7] - Recognizing turning points at the end of cycles can help capture new opportunities as trends shift [8] - Risk management is essential, as cyclical patterns are not foolproof and unexpected events can occur [8] Group 4: Key Reminders for Successful Trading - Cycles serve as a tool rather than a guaranteed method for success, emphasizing the need for continuous learning and system development [16] - Establishing a disciplined approach to trading, including strict adherence to plans and emotional control, is vital for long-term success [10]