Core Insights - Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is poised for new opportunities in 2026 due to increasing demand for AI-led servers, following a challenging year in 2025 [1] Company Overview - SMCI has faced difficulties in 2025 but is expected to benefit from the growth in AI technology and its applications in server demand [1] Industry Trends - The AI sector is transforming industries and creating new investment opportunities, indicating a significant shift in the market landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock rating of Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) to "Sell" due to declining profit margins potentially offsetting the strong demand growth for AI servers [1] Group 1: Stock Rating and Price Target - Goldman Sachs analysts lowered the 12-month price target for Super Micro Computer from $34 to $26 per share [1] - The earnings per share forecast from Goldman Sachs is 10% lower than the market consensus [2] Group 2: Profit Margin Concerns - Super Micro Computer's profit margin has significantly decreased over the past three years, now standing at 9.5% [1] - There is a warning that even if revenue growth remains strong, profit margins may continue to decline [2] Group 3: Market Position and Structural Challenges - Super Micro Computer maintains a leading position in the AI server market, particularly in the secondary cloud services segment [1] - The company faces structural pressures due to high supplier concentration, with one supplier accounting for 64% of its procurement [1] Group 4: Expansion Strategy and Software Revenue - Concerns were raised regarding the feasibility of Super Micro Computer's expansion strategy through its Data Center Building Blocks platform [1] - The software business currently contributes less than 2% to Super Micro Computer's overall revenue, and its sales team is significantly smaller compared to competitors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Supermicro (SMCI) shares are experiencing a decline following a bearish note from Goldman Sachs analyst Katherine Murphy, who has assigned a "Sell" rating with a price target of $26, indicating a potential downside of 9% from current levels [1]. Financial Performance - SMCI stock has already lost nearly 50% over the past three months, highlighting significant volatility and investor concern [2]. - The company's margins have halved over the last three years to 9.5%, and this trend is expected to continue in the near term due to large, margin-dilutive deals [4]. Market Position and Competition - Supermicro is recognized as a leader in the AI server market, but there is "limited visibility into profitability," which may hinder significant gains in 2026 [3]. - The company relies heavily on a small number of core customers, with one customer accounting for nearly one-third of its revenue, limiting pricing power and attractiveness for future investment [5]. - Supermicro's software workforce of just over 700 employees is insufficient compared to competitors like Dell, which employs over 50,000 [6]. Analyst Consensus - Despite the bearish outlook from Goldman Sachs, other analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" consensus on SMCI stock, with a mean target of $46, suggesting a potential upside of 61% [8].

记者丨雷晨 编辑丨巫燕玲 2026年开局，中国算力产业迎来一则重磅消息。 1月6日，中国证监会官网更新的一则备案信息，揭开了一场酝酿已久的资本大戏——成立仅四年、年营 收已突破400亿元的超聚变数字技术有限公司（下称"超聚变"），正式启动A股上市辅导，中信证券出 任辅导机构。 图片来源：超聚变辅导备案报告 这家从华为母体"断裂"而生的企业，在经历了"独立生存质疑—国资果断接手—技术路线押注—市场逆 势跃升"的完整周期后，不仅活了下来，更以四年狂飙的速度，长成了中国算力版图中一个不容忽视 的"新巨头"。 此刻，站在IPO的起跑线上，超聚变的发展故事既是中国算力产业链自主可控的生动切片，也是地方政 府以资本与政策培育战略性新兴产业的一次关键实验，更是AI浪潮席卷之下，国产算力企业密集资本 化的又一标志性事件。 从生存到领先 超聚变的诞生，始于一场科技界的战略调整。 2021年，在复杂的国际环境下，华为对其x86服务器业务做出了剥离决策。同年9月，脱胎于此的超聚变 数字技术有限公司正式成立，并落户河南郑州。 剥离之初，业内曾有声音：离开了华为的品牌与生态体系，这家新公司如何独立生存？没过多久，河南 国资的果断出手， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant development of Chaopujian Digital Technology Co., Ltd. (超聚变), which has rapidly grown to become a major player in China's computing power industry and is now preparing for an IPO, marking a key milestone in the capital market for the sector [1][2]. Company Development - Chaopujian was established in September 2021 after Huawei's strategic adjustment led to the spin-off of its x86 server business, raising initial concerns about its survival without Huawei's brand and ecosystem [4]. - The company has successfully stabilized its operations by retaining its core team and maintaining existing client relationships, leading to impressive revenue growth from over 100 billion yuan in 2022 to more than 400 billion yuan projected for 2024 [5]. - The company has positioned itself strategically in the AI server market and has made early investments in liquid cooling technology, anticipating trends in domestic production and green computing [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - By mid-2025, Chaopujian achieved a sales figure of 268 billion yuan, ranking second in the domestic server market and first in the liquid cooling server segment [6]. - The company has developed a full-stack capability from hardware to solutions, focusing on AI and high-performance computing, as well as green computing technologies [6]. - Chaopujian's 2.0 strategy expands its business scope beyond basic computing infrastructure to include AI, data, computing, and energy solutions, with a new headquarters in Zhengzhou symbolizing this strategic upgrade [6]. IPO and Market Dynamics - The initiation of the IPO process is seen as a response to internal needs for funding to support R&D, capacity expansion, and market development [8]. - The ownership structure includes significant stakes from state-owned enterprises, indicating strong local government support for the company's growth and its role in developing the computing industry cluster in Henan province [9]. - The anticipated valuation for Chaopujian post-IPO is approximately 89 billion USD, reflecting its positioning as a stable technology platform rather than a speculative AI company [9]. Industry Context - The article notes that the demand for intelligent computing power in China is expected to reach 486 EFLOPS by 2025, significantly higher than in 2023, supported by government initiatives and funding for computing infrastructure [11][12]. - The rapid response of the capital market to the computing power sector is evident, with multiple companies in the field either preparing for IPOs or already listed, indicating a growing trend towards the commercialization of computing infrastructure [12].

Group 1 - The HP ProLiant DL388 Gen10 (826565-AA1) is an economical and efficient server designed with a compact form factor, featuring the Xeon Silver 4110 processor, balancing scalability, performance, reliability, and manageability [1][5]. - The server is currently on promotion at an authorized dealer in Chengdu for a price of 20,000 yuan, with free installation, debugging, and training services included [1][5]. - The server utilizes a 2U rack structure and is equipped with an 8-core, 16-thread Xeon Silver 4110 processor, operating at a base frequency of 2.1GHz and capable of reaching up to 3.0GHz with Turbo Boost [2][6]. Group 2 - The HP ProLiant DL388 Gen10 supports up to 32GB of memory and includes a smart array P408i-a disk controller, making it suitable for data-intensive applications [2][6]. - Chengdu Qiangchuan Technology Co., Ltd., established in 2011, focuses on providing professional IT services, including network technology services, software development, IT product distribution, and system integration [2][3]. - Qiangchuan Technology is recognized as a comprehensive IT service provider, offering a wide range of IT products and solutions, and has built a strong reputation among clients in various sectors such as government, education, finance, telecommunications, and manufacturing [3][7].

Summary of Datacenter Market Insights - ODM Direct Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Datacenter Market** within the **Hardware Technology** sector, specifically analyzing **ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) direct server shipments** in the Asia Pacific region. Key Insights 1. **ODM Shipments and Value Growth** - ODM shipments declined by **4% quarter-over-quarter (q/q)** but the shipment value increased by **2% q/q** due to growth in both general and AI servers [1][2] - The expected shipments for **GB200/300 racks** are projected to reach approximately **27.3k** in **CY25** and **70k+** in **CY26** [1][5] 2. **Global ODM Direct Server Shipments** - Total global ODM direct server shipments were **1.83 million** units in **3Q25**, reflecting a **4% decline q/q** but a **37% increase year-over-year (y/y)** [2] - This accounted for **43.5%** of global server shipments, which remained flat at **4.2 million** units q/q but increased by **14% y/y** [2] 3. **Market Share Dynamics** - **Inventec** became the top ODM with a **24.6%** market share, gaining **480 basis points (bps)** q/q, while **Wiwynn** dropped to **20.4%** [2][12] - **Intel** and **AMD** both lost unit share, with Intel at **35.1%** (-300 bps q/q) and AMD at **40.3%** (-390 bps q/q) [3][12] 4. **Regional Performance** - **Central & Eastern Europe** exhibited the highest growth in shipment units at **449% y/y**, followed by the **US** at **50% y/y** [4][12] - The US accounted for **75%** of aggregate ODM direct shipments, with other regions like **APxJC** at **13%** and **Western Europe** at **6%** [4] 5. **AI Server Contribution** - AI servers were the main contributors to the increase in shipment value, with the average selling price (ASP) of ODM servers increasing by **7% q/q** and **54% y/y** [5] Additional Insights - **ODM Shipment Value** reached **US$66.8 billion** in **3Q25**, marking a **2% increase q/q** and a **111% increase y/y** [2] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in ODMs such as **Wistron**, **Wiwynn**, **Hon Hai**, **FII**, and **Quanta** [5] Conclusion - The ODM direct server market is experiencing a complex landscape with declining unit shipments but increasing value, driven primarily by the growth of AI servers. The competitive dynamics are shifting, with new leaders emerging in market share and significant regional disparities in growth rates.

Core Viewpoint - The Inspur CS5260H2 server is currently on promotion at a price of 92,880 yuan, including a 13% special invoice, and is designed for the domestic innovation ecosystem, targeting various sectors such as government and finance [1][6]. Group 1: Product Details - The Inspur CS5260H2 server features two Haiguang 5380 processors with a base frequency of 2.5GHz and a smart acceleration frequency of 3.0GHz, offering 16 cores and 32 threads to handle complex business operations [1][6]. - It includes 16 DDR4 memory slots, supporting a maximum of 2TB, with a standard configuration of 512GB [1][6]. - The storage system combines high-speed SSDs and large-capacity HDDs, supporting multiple RAID modes to balance read/write performance and storage capacity [1][6]. - Networking capabilities include two Gigabit Ethernet ports and one dedicated management port, along with features like dual power redundancy, intelligent cooling, and hardware-level encryption [1][6]. Group 2: Company Overview - Inspur is recognized as a leading provider of computing platforms and IT application solutions in China, and it is the largest server manufacturer and server solution provider in the country [5][8]. - The company operates two publicly listed entities, Inspur Information and Inspur Software, on domestic A-shares and has a presence on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company Chaoguhuan Digital Technology Co., Ltd. (超聚变) is preparing for an IPO in the A-share market, marking a significant development in the computing power industry, with strong backing from notable investors and a robust growth trajectory [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Chaoguhuan was established on September 13, 2021, with a registered capital of approximately 880 million yuan, and is currently controlled by the Henan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [4][6]. - The company has deployed 10 R&D centers and 6 supply centers globally, serving over 10,000 clients across more than 100 countries and regions, and holds over 2,000 core patents [2][11]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2022, Chaoguhuan achieved a revenue of 23.51 billion yuan, with a production output of 406,000 units. In 2023, the revenue increased to 28.38 billion yuan with a production of 300,000 units [11]. - The company aims to surpass 40 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 and 50 billion yuan in 2025, with a reported revenue of 26.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][11]. Group 3: Market Position - Chaoguhuan has become the second-largest server manufacturer in China and ranks sixth globally in the server market share, benefiting from its strong technological foundation inherited from Huawei's X86 server business [10][11]. - The company has maintained its position as the leading provider in the emerging liquid cooling server market for two consecutive years [10]. Group 4: Investment and Shareholder Support - The company has attracted significant investment from major players, including China Mobile, China Telecom, and various capital firms, indicating strong market confidence [2][9]. - Following the announcement of its IPO plans, stocks of companies previously rumored to be involved in a reverse merger with Chaoguhuan experienced significant declines, reflecting market speculation and investor sentiment [3][7].

Core Insights - Chaoju Huan's rapid rise in the server market is considered "counterintuitive," with revenue soaring from 10 billion yuan in 2022 to 40 billion yuan in 2024, making it the second-largest player in China and the sixth globally [1] - The company has maintained the largest market share in the liquid cooling server segment in China for two consecutive years, surpassing some established giants [1] - Chaoju Huan has opted for a direct IPO path, starting its listing guidance on January 6, 2026, despite earlier speculation about a reverse merger [1] Company Performance - Chaoju Huan's revenue growth is significant, with a projected increase from 10 billion yuan in 2022 to 40 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The company has achieved a market share of 13.3% in the domestic server market as of 2024, while its AI training server market share reached 35% in the first half of 2025 [20][18] Market Impact - The upcoming IPO of Chaoju Huan is expected to lead to a revaluation of several related companies, including equity affiliates and business partners [2] - Companies like Dongfang Mingzhu and Cuiwei Co. have significant stakes in Chaoju Huan, with Dongfang Mingzhu investing 499 million yuan [4] Business Collaborations - Chaoju Huan's business partners include Tianyuan Dike, which generates nearly 80% of its revenue from Chaoju Huan's GPU servers, and Digital China, which has seen a 15% increase in related orders by Q3 2025 [4][9] - Yingweike has provided a full-chain liquid cooling solution, winning a project worth 350 million yuan in Q3 2025 [5] Technological Edge - Liquid cooling technology is a core competitive advantage for Chaoju Huan, with its "silent all-liquid cooling integrated system" achieving industry-leading specifications [7][8] - The liquid cooling server market in China is projected to grow by 67% in 2024, with Chaoju Huan holding the second-largest market share [8] Global Expansion - Chaoju Huan has established a global dealer network covering over 100 countries, with significant growth in emerging markets like the Middle East and Southeast Asia [16] - The company has set up 10 R&D centers and 6 supply centers globally, with overseas revenue exceeding 20% in 2025 [16] Competitive Landscape - Chaoju Huan faces competition from major players like Inspur and Huawei, with Inspur holding a 30.8% market share in 2024 [17][18] - The industry is experiencing a price war, impacting profit margins across server manufacturers [19] Strategic Support - The Henan provincial government has increased its support for Chaoju Huan, designating its IPO as a core task for state-owned enterprise reform by 2025 [12][14] - National-level capital, such as the National Adjustment Fund, has strategically invested in Chaoju Huan, enhancing its resource integration capabilities [15]