"建议珠海利用'办公软件发源地'独特历史优势，确立'中国AI办公之城'战略定位，同时，利用'武侠游 戏发源地'城市名片， 构建粤港澳大湾区数字文化新地标。"2026年珠海市两会期间，珠海市人大代 表、西山居副总裁李爱华提出建议。李爱华认为，珠海同时是"中国软件产业的发源地"（1988年，中国 第一款中文字处理软件在珠海诞生），以及全国唯一性的稀缺文化资产——"中国武侠游戏发源 地"（1997年，中国第一款商业武侠游戏《剑侠情缘》诞生于珠海，标志着中国武侠游戏产业的开 端），应充分加以利用。 市人大代表李爱华。 李爱华表示，当前，全球正处于从数字化向智能化转型的关键时期，以大模型为基座的"AI+办公"已成 为发展新质生产力的重要引擎，成为城市抢占数字经济高地的重要切口。 在这一宏观背景下，珠海拥有一项被长期低估的城市级资产——"中国软件产业的发源地"。1988年，中 国第一款中文字处理软件在珠海诞生，开启了国产软件产业化的先河。经过30余年培育，珠海已形成以 本土领军企业为核心的办公软件产业集群，主要产品"WPS Office"的全球月度活跃设备数已达6.69亿， 服务全球220多个国家和地区。 因此，李爱华建 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards the software sector, highlighting a significant net selling and shorting activity, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market [7][14]. Core Insights - The software industry has seen a substantial decline in valuation, with forward P/E ratios dropping from 35x at the end of 2025 to 20x currently, indicating a more comparable valuation to other sectors [14]. - Despite the current bearish sentiment, the software sector continues to show strong sales growth relative to other industries, suggesting potential for recovery [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming AI model updates and tools, which may maintain high volatility in sectors perceived to be at risk from AI disruption [10][14]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report notes that many themes are experiencing high volatility, with the 10-day actual volatility for several indices at the 99th percentile since 2010, indicating a turbulent market environment [4]. - The software sector has been the most shorted and has seen a 55% increase in short positions year-to-date, reflecting investor caution [7]. Valuation Comparisons - Current P/E ratios for various sectors are provided, with the software sector at 26.9x for 2026, significantly lower than the previous year's 50.6x, indicating a major revaluation [9]. - The report highlights that while the software sector's earnings growth remains higher than other sectors, the recent sales growth and profit margins suggest a more reasonable valuation [7][11]. Sector-Specific Opportunities - The report identifies regional banks as a favorable investment due to benefits from a steepening yield curve and regulatory easing, suggesting a positive outlook for this sector [8][31]. - The UK real estate sector is highlighted as undervalued, with potential for recovery driven by improving earnings momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions [33][34]. Global Themes - The report discusses the importance of domestic manufacturing and national security themes, particularly in the context of geopolitical shifts, which may drive investment in these areas [36][40]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is noted as a potential catalyst for market movements, with historical data suggesting strong performance during this period [42].

Bofa Hartnett 美股科技泡沫见顶 为何中期选举前看多实体经济、看空华尔街 一个月前， Hartnett 发现了一些令人担忧的情况。他最近重新设计了该行备受关注的牛熊 指标：截至 206 年初，（经过改进的）卖出信号已触发，因为该指标处于"非常看涨的 9.0" 水平，原因是科技股和新兴市场债券的资金流出被非常强劲的全球股市广度（98%的国家指 数高于 200 日均线）、美国银行 FMS 的超低现金头寸（创历史新低 3.3%）以及对冲基金通过 期货增持标普 500 指数多头头寸所抵消。该指标随后升至 2018 年以来的最高水平：12 月 17 日为 8.5，12 月 24 日为 8.8，12 月 31 日为 9.0。 （顺便一提，在最近一周，牛熊指数 从 9.4 飙升至惊人的 9.6，创下 2006 年 3 月以来的最高水平，原因是科技股和高收益债 券基金资金强劲流入、FMS 现金处于历史低位、全球股市指数走强，但新兴市场债务资金 流出、对冲基金削减黄金多头头寸和 VIX 空头头寸等因素抵消了这些影响；多头仓位过 剩……这向风险资产发出了反向"卖出信号"）。 尽管如此，市场依然继续上涨……直到一月底， ...

智通财经APP注意到，由于华尔街对软件股面临人工智能潜在颠覆的担忧日益加剧，微软(MSFT.US) 的股票在不到一周的时间内遭到了第二次评级下调。 微软评级被再次下调 Melius Research 周一将微软评级从"买入"下调至"持有"，理由是担心资本支出以及微软旗下的 Copilot 品牌产品——这是其向办公室职员销售 AI 软件工具 的主要载体。在此之前，Stifel 在上周末也进行了类似的下调，分析师对微软 Azure 云计算业务的增长速度发出了警告。 Melius 分析师 Ben Reitzes 在报告中写道："由于受到 Anthropic 的 Cowork 等产品的冲击，微软强大的 365 套件可能会面临挑战，甚至可能需要免费赠送 Copilot 以保持竞争力——这将损害其利润最丰厚的'生产力'部门的增长和利润率。这一现实将消耗 Azure 的内部产能，从而限制该业务超预期的表现。" 此次评级下调正值投资者对整个软件行业长期前景愈发紧张之际，来自 Anthropic 等公司的 AI 工具被视为一种主要的颠覆力量，并可能成为增长的永久性 阻力。自 1 月底以来，高盛的一篮子软件股已下跌超过 14%。 ...

AI增值服务方面，万兴喵影移动端仅对AI功能及AI素材等相关增值服务收费，其核心AI能力逐步向桌 面端对齐，可覆盖从生成到精修的全链路创作场景，具备支撑专业级作品闭环产出的能力。 基于对用户需求的精准把握，此次万兴喵影移动端升级聚焦"视频免费剪，AI更出片"，基础剪辑功能、 自研资源素材面向用户普惠开放，仅针对AI功能及AI素材等相关增值服务收费。用户可登陆万兴喵影 官网（miao.wondershare.cn）抢鲜体验。 基础普惠方面，万兴喵影移动端持续升级智能抠图、美颜美型、智能调色、音频降噪等剪辑功能，进一 步降低视频创作门槛，让更多创作者能够轻松上手视频剪辑；限免开放自研资源库，涵盖特效、模板 （不含AI资源）、滤镜、贴纸等海量资源素材库，无论是时尚潮流的短视频，还是温馨感人的生活记 录，亦或是专业高质的商业宣传，创作者都能在资源库中找到合适的素材，助力用户"零门槛"体验从灵 感捕捉到包装导出的全流程视频创作。 近日，AIGC软件A股上市公司万兴科技（300624.SZ）在视频创意领域再掀创新浪潮，旗下明星产品万 兴喵影移动端迎来上线以来最全面能力升级，率先在国内移动剪辑领域推行"基础普惠 + AI增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in the software and services sector is primarily due to market reassessment of terminal value driven by "AI disruption," rather than a deterioration in short-term fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market has already reflected a compression of terminal price-to-earnings ratios by approximately 10%-20% [1] - If the compression extends to 30%, stock prices in the sector could fall back to mid-2023 lows or even lower, indicating a potential long-term evaporation of terminal value by about one-third [1] - Major software ETFs are experiencing a surge in trading volume and implied volatility, indicating a phase of panic selling [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Extreme trading behaviors typically signify a climax in selling, suggesting a potential for a technical rebound in the short term, but this does not imply that long-term risks have been mitigated [1] - The reassessment of terminal value due to AI will persist, shifting the software industry from broad-based gains to a phase of significant individual stock differentiation [1] - The market will increasingly focus on companies' ability to integrate AI, with those enhancing efficiency through AI likely to continue growing, while those with business models easily replaceable by AI may face long-term pressures [1] - The current market is entering a more volatile bull market phase, with software stocks undergoing the most intense adjustments within this context [1]

Crossmark Global Investments首席市场策略师Victoria Fernandez认为， AI和软件公司可以"在某种程度上共存，但问题是这些公司能保留 多少定价权" 。她补充道，对于那些经历了大幅回调但拥有强劲资产负债表的公司，投资者可以"试水"。 华尔街集中反击"末日论"叙事，称企业不会轻易放弃现有核心系统，软件巨头仍具不可替代性。D.A. Davidson分析师上调甲骨文评级，并 直言"软件并未死亡"，企业将继续为甲骨文产品付费。此外，科技巨头激增的资本支出也提振了市场信心，分析认为这部分支出至少部分将 流向软件公司。 软件板块整体走强，iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF周一上涨3%，此前该ETF已较高点暴跌约28%，市场担忧AI将接管软件 传统职能并颠覆其收入模式。Wedbush Securities分析师Dan Ives称近期软件股"末日"叙事"极度夸张"，并将Salesforce和ServiceNow加入 该机构AI 30榜单。 隔夜美国软件股集体反弹，华尔街分析师集中发声驳斥人工智能将颠覆软件行业的"末日论"，称市场过度悲观。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues to rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 index surpassing the 100-day moving average, but concerns about AI investment returns persist amid weak employment data, increasing uncertainty [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Monday, the U.S. stock market extended its rebound from the previous Friday, with the S&P 500 index approaching historical highs and the Nasdaq 100 index closing up 0.8% [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged over 1200 points last Friday, breaking the 50,000-point mark for the first time, as investors viewed last week's sell-off as an "overreaction" and a buying opportunity [3]. - The technology sector led the rebound, with significant gains in previously battered software and chip stocks, including Oracle, which soared nearly 10% [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Concerns - Despite the market rebound, fundamental concerns remain regarding whether AI investments will yield the expected profits, with notable declines in stocks like Amazon and Alphabet [3][7]. - Investors are increasingly cautious about the next potential risk point, particularly with upcoming employment reports and inflation data that could influence interest rate policies and market sentiment [3][11]. - There is a notable shift in investment strategies, with funds rotating from technology stocks to defensive sectors like consumer staples, which are perceived as safer during economic slowdowns [11][12]. Group 3: Economic Data and Implications - Recent economic data has not provided much comfort, with the U.S. Labor Department reporting a decrease of nearly 1 million job openings last year and a significant underperformance in private sector job growth for January [10][11]. - The delayed release of the January non-farm payroll report has further muddied investor judgment regarding the economy [11]. - Concerns about the heavy reliance on a few tech giants due to their substantial AI investments may overshadow broader economic weaknesses [8].

智通财经APP注意到，甲骨文(ORCL.US)股价周一扩大反弹势头，美国科技巨头资本支出的增加，有助于缓解市场因人工智能发展对该公司构成的威胁而产 生的紧张情绪。 这家软件行业风向标企业的股价盘中一度上涨12%，创下自9月10日以来的最大盘中涨幅，截至收盘涨幅缩窄至9%。尽管此前亚马逊(AMZN.US)承诺今年将 投入2000亿美元用于数据中心、芯片及其他设备，但即便在周一反弹之后，甲骨文的股价较9月份的高点仍下跌了约50%。 "软件行业并未消亡，"D.A.Davidson分析师Gil Luria在报告中写道，并将该股评级从"中性"上调至"买入"。"我们相信企业将继续为甲骨文的产品买单，它们 不会被'氛围编程'所取代。" 甲骨文股价仍比历史最高点低约50% 当然，华尔街并非所有人都认同这一观点。MeliusResearch分析师Ben Reitzes在周一指出，甲骨文"不产生现金流，且不能保证OpenAI一定能击败Anthropic和 谷歌。" 但这并未阻止甲骨文计划在今年筹集450亿至500亿美元，以建设额外产能，满足来自AMD、Meta和英伟达等公司最大的云客户的合同需求。 Reitzes表示，他钦佩甲骨 ...

隔夜美国软件股集体反弹，华尔街分析师集中发声驳斥人工智能将颠覆软件行业的"末日论"，称市场过度悲观。甲骨文等龙头股大幅反弹，科技巨头加码资 本支出的承诺也提振了投资者信心。 软件板块整体走强，iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF周一上涨3%，此前该ETF已较高点暴跌约28%，市场担忧AI将接管软件传统职能并颠覆其收 入模式。Wedbush Securities分析师Dan Ives称近期软件股"末日"叙事"极度夸张"，并将Salesforce和ServiceNow加入该机构AI 30榜单。 甲骨文股价一度飙升12%，创9月10日以来最大盘中涨幅，收涨近10%。D.A. Davidson分析师Gil Luria将该股评级从中性上调至买入，并直言"软件并未死 亡"，称企业将继续为甲骨文产品付费，"不会被随意编码替代"。 此外，亚马逊承诺今年在数据中心、芯片等设备上投入2000亿美元，这一表态帮助缓解了市场对AI威胁的担忧。部分投资者押注，亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta 和微软等公司合计约6500亿美元的AI工具支出，至少有一部分将流向软件企业。 华尔街集中反击"末 ...