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固定收益部市场日报-20250728
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-28 07:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Asia IGs tightened 1 - 3bps this morning, and the credit profile of Vedanta Resources (VRL) continues to improve, with the recommendation to buy VEDLN 10.875 09/17/29 and change the recommendation on VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 from neutral to buy [3][7][8] - Onshore primary issuances showed a 15% yoy increase in the amount of credit bonds issued month - to - date [17] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In KR, LGENSO 26 - 35s tightened 1 - 4bps, and its 2Q25 operating profit rose 31% qoq from 1Q25; HYUELE 26 - 33s were unchanged [1] - In insurance, CATLIF 34/39 tightened 1 - 2bps; MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54s and ASAMLI Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt [1] - In JP, NSANY 26 - 30s were unchanged to 1.0pt higher [1] - In HK, NWDEVL Perps/27 - 31s were unchanged to 0.4pt higher; HYSAN Perps were 0.4 - 0.8pt higher; LASUDE 26 rose 0.7pt; LIFUNG Perp lowered 0.8pt, closed 2.8pts higher WoW [1] - In Chinese properties, DALWAN 26 was up 0.8pt; ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2 - 1.3pts lower, closed 3.8 - 5.6pts lower WoW; ROADKG Perps were 0.1pt higher, closed unchanged to 0.1pt lower WoW [1] - Outside properties, EHICAR 26 - 27s were up 0.4 - 0.9pt; WESCHI 26 was up 0.3pt, closed 4.1pts higher WoW; FOSUNI 25 - 27s lowered 0.1 - 0.5pt [1] - In SE Asia, GLPSP Perps/28 were up 0.4 - 1.7pts, closed 1.2 - 2.5pts higher WoW; VLLPM 29 was up 0.8pt; VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.1pt higher [1] - In CNH space, the new CNH TEMASE 30/35/55 and CNH CHMEDA 30/35 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower [2] - In LGFVs, BINHCO priced 3yr bond at par to yield 4.95% (IPT at 5.8% area); DAZAKI priced 3yr bond at par to yield 7% (IPT at 7% area); SCDFGU priced 3yr bond at par to yield 6.8% (IPT at 6.8% area) [2] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: GLPSP 4.6 PERP rose 1.7pts to 51.2; GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP rose 1.4pts to 53.8; TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 rose 1.4pts to 71.5; NSANY 4.81 09/17/30 rose 1.0pts to 92.5; NSANY 7 3/4 07/17/32 rose 1.0pts to 102.4 [5] - Top Underperformers: ROADKG 5 1/8 01/26/30 dropped 1.3pts to 21.3; LIFUNG 5 1/4 PERP dropped 0.8pts to 50.7; ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 dropped 0.7pts to 23.0; ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 dropped 0.6pts to 24.3; FOSUNI 5.95 10/19/25 dropped 0.5pts to 100.0 [5] Macro News Recap - S&P (+0.40%), Dow (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (+0.24%) were higher on last Friday [6] - The EU reached a tariff deal with the US, facing 15% tariffs on most of its exports [6] - The US Jun'25 Durable Goods Orders was - 9.3% mom, compared to the market expectation of - 10.4% [6] - UST yield was lower on last Friday, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.91%/3.95%/4.40%/4.92% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Vedanta Resources will prepay the remaining USD550mn of its PCF in Aug'25, funded by bank facilities with lower interest costs [7] - VRL may consider a buyback of its USD bonds after PCF refinancing and demerger [7] - The credit profile of VRL continues to improve, with lengthened debt maturity and lowered funding costs [8] - The performance of VEDLNs may be supported by potential early redemptions [8] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Dazhou Kaisheng Construction issued 70mn USD 3 - yr bond at 7.0% yield; Sichuan Zigong Huidong Development issued 69.5mn USD 3 - yr bond at 6.8% yield; Tianjin Binhai New Area Construction & Investment Group issued 244mn USD 3 - yr bond at 4.95% yield [12] - Pipeline: No offshore Asia new issues pipeline today [13] News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 77 credit bonds were issued last Friday with an amount of RMB84bn; month - to - date, 1,797 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,930bn, a 15% yoy increase [17] - Macau visitors climbed 15% yoy in 1H25 with a jump in same - day travelers [17] - Alibaba halves prices of cutting - edge AI model and a senior executive is accused of taking USD5.6mn in bribes [17] - First Pacific's Philippine power arm expects higher FY25 earnings [17] - Fantasia further delays offshore debt restructuring closing to 1 Aug'25 [17] - Li & Fung gives tender priority to bondholders who also subscribe to new bonds [17] - China Vanke sells a project for RMB1.4bn (cUSD195mn) [17]
银行间主要利率债收益率盘初普遍下行,30年期国债“25超长特别国债02”收益率下行2bp报1.9275%,10年期国开债“25国开10”收益率下行1.75bp报1.81%。
news flash· 2025-07-28 00:11
银行间主要利率债收益率盘初普遍下行,30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行2bp报1.9275%,10 年期国开债"25国开10"收益率下行1.75bp报1.81%。 ...
大类资产早报-20250725
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 09:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly offers data on the performance of various global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On July 24, 2025, yields varied across countries. For instance, the US was at 4.398%, and Japan at 3.917%. Yields showed different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.015, a weekly change of - 0.055, a monthly change of 0.155, and a yearly change of 0.239 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: Similar to the 10 - year yields, 2 - year yields were also presented for different economies on July 24, 2025. The US 2 - year yield was 3.830, with a latest change of - 0.020, a weekly change of - 0.120, a monthly change of - 0.070, and a yearly change of - 0.620 [3]. - **USD Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies**: On July 24, 2025, the exchange rates and their changes were provided. For example, the USD - BRL rate was 5.520, with a latest change of 0.01%, a weekly change of - 0.46%, a monthly change of 0.57%, and a yearly change of 1.69% [3]. - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: Stock indices of various economies were reported on July 24, 2025. The S&P 500 was at 6363.350, with a latest change of 0.07% and 1.05%, a weekly change of 3.62%, a monthly change of 3.01%, and a yearly change of 12.28% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices were presented on July 24, 2025. The US investment - grade credit bond index was 3414.280, with a latest change of - 0.06%, a weekly change of 0.47%, a monthly change of - 0.06%, and a yearly change of 4.51% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - shares closed at 3605.73 with a 0.65% increase. The CSI 300 closed at 4149.04 with a 0.71% increase, the SSE 50 at 2812.44 with a 0.40% increase, the ChiNext at 2345.37 with a 1.50% increase, and the CSI 500 at 6293.60 with a 1.56% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.59 with a 0.05环比 change, the SSE 50 was 11.48 with a - 0.01环比 change, the CSI 500 was 30.76 with a 0.43环比 change, the S&P 500 was 27.00 with a 0.02环比 change, and the German DAX was 20.78 with a 0.04环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.69 with a - 0.01环比 change, and the German DAX was 2.11 with a - 0.07环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, the SME board, the ChiNext, and the CSI 300 were 542.05, 313.60, N/A, 174.27, and 204.32 respectively. The 5 - day average values were - 313.86, - 182.93, N/A, - 121.12, and 55.64 respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the CSI 300, the SSE 50, the SME board, and the ChiNext were 18447.06, 4870.00, 1181.38, 3524.88, and 4582.37 respectively. The环比 changes were - 198.94, 166.69, - 127.52, - 128.77, and 94.99 respectively [5]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of IF was - 7.84 with a - 0.19% spread, the SSE 50 was 4.16 with a 0.15% spread, and the CSI 500 was - 67.60 with a - 1.07% spread [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 closed at 108.220, 105.585, 108.255, and 105.665 respectively, with changes of - 0.11%, - 0.09%, - 0.09%, and - 0.09% respectively [6]. - The money market rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.6924%, 1.6012%, and 1.5530% respectively, with daily changes of 19.00, 10.00, and 0.00 basis points respectively [6].
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-24 06:36
China’s 30-year government bond auction on Thursday drew its highest yield since March, as risk sentiment improved and concerns over further losses cooled demand for debt. https://t.co/4mNaLfZmCQ ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-23 22:30
Demand for 40-year Japanese government bonds is at its weakest since 2011 amid concerns over government spending and following news of a US-Japan trade deal. Here's why investors are so worried https://t.co/7Olmcxn2St ...
债市日报:7月23日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-23 09:47
Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing adjustments with government bond futures declining across the board, while interbank bond yields are rising slightly. The market is influenced by short-term emotional shocks, but the fundamental economic data remains under various influences, indicating that the logic of monetary easing is still intact for the long term [1][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.21% to 119.27, the 10-year main contract down 0.11% to 108.52, the 5-year main contract down 0.09% to 105.79, and the 2-year main contract down 0.03% to 102.38 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising 0.25 basis points to 1.911%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield up 0.5 basis points to 1.7825%, and the 10-year government bond yield up 0.75 basis points to 1.7% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 2.31 basis points to 3.8292% and the 10-year yield down 3.17 basis points to 4.344% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing 8.5 basis points to 1.588% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also decreased, with the UK yield down 3.3 basis points to 4.568% [3]. Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had winning yields of 1.3695%, 1.6649%, and 1.7888% for 1.074-year, 3-year, and 10-year terms, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.54, 3.26, and 3.76 [4]. - The Ministry of Finance's 91-day and 182-day treasury bonds had weighted winning yields of 1.2231% and 1.3243%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.28 and 2.3 [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 150.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Shibor rates for short-term products mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising 5.0 basis points to 1.367% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that the recent bond market adjustment reflects various factors, including "anti-involution" and water conservancy projects, suggesting that while short-term concerns exist, long-term opportunities may arise [6]. - Huatai Fixed Income highlighted that the bond market adjustment is driven by changes in three core logics, including strong performance of risk assets and marginal corrections in fundamental expectations [6]. - Hongze Fixed Income pointed out that despite the ongoing adjustments, there are still structural opportunities in the bond market, with a shift in focus from extremes to the middle ground [6].
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-23 05:54
Demand for 40-year Japanese government bonds is at its weakest since 2011 amid concerns over government spending and following news of a US-Japan trade deal. Here's why investors are so worried https://t.co/9785RzOjGU ...
固定收益部市场日报-20250722
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-22 12:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a buy recommendation on CPDEVs [3][9] Core View - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including price changes of various bonds, macro - news, new issuance information, and company - specific news [1][6][16] Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, long - end Chinese IGs like TENCNT/BABA 50 - 57s were 0.5 - 0.7pt higher (unchanged to 5bps tighter), while JD 50 was 0.8pt lower (12bps wider) [1] - In insurance, SHIKON 35 tightened another 5bps (0.6pt higher) after tightening 20bps last week. CATLIF/NSINTW 34s were unchanged to 2bps tighter [1] - NIPILF 51/MYLIFE 55 were up 0.1pt, ASAMLI/SUMILF Perps were down 0.1 - 0.2pt. In AT1s, BACR 9.675/HSBC 7.05/UBS 6.85 Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt [1] - In HK, HYSAN 4.85 Perp was up 0.6pt. NWDEVL 28 - 31s/Perps were 0.7pt lower to 0.3pt higher. MTRC Perps were 0.1 - 0.2pt higher [1] - In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.1 - 0.4pt lower, ROADKG Perps closed unchanged. LNGFOR 28/DALWAN 26 were down 0.3 - 0.5pt. Outside properties, WESCHI 26 was up 0.9pt [1] - In SE Asia, MEDCIJ 30 was up 0.6pt. Elsewhere, MONMIN 30 was up 1.0pt [1] - In CNH space, the new SWIPRO 35 was 0.1pt higher with yield tightening towards 3%. In LGFVs, CPDEV 26 was down 0.2pt, CPDEV 29 was up 0.2pt [2] - There were two - way interests on USD names like CHDOHU 7.6 28s/KNMIDI 8.5 26s and CNH names like ZCHTCD 6.7 28s/QHURGR 7.8 26s. In SOE perps, AVIILC Perp was up 0.2pt, CHPWCN Perp was down 0.2pt [2] Morning Updates (22 Jul 2025) - SHIKON 35 widened 10bps and NSINTW 34 widened 5bps. NACF/SHINFN 29 - 30s widened 1 - 2bps. HYSAN 4.85/FAEACO 12.814 Perps were down 0.3 - 0.4pt. WESCHI 26 was up another 0.5pt [3] - USD90.4mn of CPDEV 4.65 01/19/26 was validly tendered at expiration, meeting adjourned to 5 Aug'25. CPDEV 26 was 0.1pt higher this morning [3] - VEDLN: Hindustan Zinc 1QFY25 results beat estimates on record output and silver gains, VEDLNs were unchanged this morning [3] Top Performers and Underperformers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FWDGHD 6.675 PERP | 99.5 | 1.2 | GRNLGR 5 7/8 07/03/30 | 22.7 | - 4.4 | | RILIN 3 5/8 01/12/52 | 68.9 | 1.0 | JD 4 1/8 01/14/50 | 77.8 | - 0.8 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 95.9 | 1.0 | NWDEVL 4 1/2 05/19/30 | 48.6 | - 0.7 | | WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 | 89.4 | 0.9 | LNGFOR 4 1/2 01/16/28 | 89.9 | - 0.5 | | CCAMCL 5 02/08/48 | 87.0 | 0.8 | NWDEVL 3 3/4 01/14/31 | 47.3 | - 0.5 | [4] Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (+0.14%), Dow (-0.04%) and Nasdaq (+0.38%) were mixed. The S&P 500 Index finished at 6305.6, its highest close ever [6] - UST yield was lower on Monday, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.85%/3.91%/4.38%/4.94% [6] Desk Analyst Comments on CPDEV - Central Plaza Development adjourned the meeting on CPDEV 4.65 01/19/26 to 5 Aug'25 due to lack of quorum. As of expiration, USD90.42mn of the bond was validly tendered [7] - Voting deadline for consent solicitation extended to 31 Jul'25. If approved, CPDEV can redeem all CPDEV 26 outstanding at par with 5 - business - day notice [8] - Maintain buy on CPDEVs due to Beijing SASAC's ownership, CPDEV's strategic importance, and good access to on - shore funding, and proactive management of offshore maturity profile [9] Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today [14] - There are no new offshore Asia issues in the pipeline today [15] News and Market Color - Yesterday, 89 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB170bn. Month - to - date, 1,337 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB1,409bn, a 12.8% yoy increase [16] - Land sales in China's smaller cities fell to the lowest level in over a decade [16] - Indonesian coal exports to China fell 12% yoy in 1H25 due to falling prices [16] - Fitch changed Continuum Green Energy's outlook to stable from positive and affirmed its B+ rating [16] - CTF Services issued HKD850mn CTFSHK 2.8 01/18/27 (CB) and repurchased HKD566mn CTFSHK 4 07/22/25 (CB), with the remaining HKD74mn converted into shares [16] - China Water Affairs Group and its top shareholder offered to buy the remaining stake in wastewater firm Kangda [16] - EQT and Brookfield are in active negotiations to acquire Gland Pharma from Fosun Group [16] - S&P assigned Fubon Life an A - rating with a stable outlook [16] - Vale Indonesia plans to raise USD1 - 1.2bn in 2026 - 27 for mine and smelter projects [16] - Road King bondholders were advised to reject the revised consent solicitation offer [16] - Sands China's new incentives on table - side bets could boost market share [21] - SoftBank - OpenAI US venture scaled back near - term goals due to disputes [21] - Hindustan Zinc 1Q25 results beat estimates on record output and silver gains [21]
债市日报:7月22日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 07:48
Market Overview - The bond market continued to show weakness, with government bond futures experiencing a significant decline, particularly in the long-term contracts [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 127.7 billion yuan in the open market, indicating a gradual return to a balanced but slightly loose liquidity environment [1][5] Bond Yield Trends - The yields on various government bonds showed a mixed trend, with long-term bonds weakening while short-term bonds remained stable [2] - The 30-year government bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.899%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 1.69% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping by 3.38 basis points to 4.3757% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields saw a notable increase, particularly in the long-term segment [3] - European bond yields also decreased, with the 10-year French bond yield falling by 10.4 basis points to 3.292% [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank issued financial bonds with yields of 1.4933%, 1.5673%, and 1.6939% for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year maturities, respectively, indicating strong demand with bid-to-cover ratios above 3 [4] Liquidity and Funding Conditions - The central bank's reverse repos on July 22 totaled 214.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, contributing to a net withdrawal of 127.7 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates declined, with the overnight rate falling to 1.317%, the lowest since September 2022 [5] Institutional Insights - Institutions suggest that the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile state due to strong production but weak demand, with significant factors including stock market performance and major investment projects [6][7] - The convertible bond market is viewed as having high valuations, with recommendations to focus on stocks with a conversion premium within 20% [7]