从货币属性来看，郑后成认为，在美联储持续降息、美元走弱背景下，黄金与白银均不具备系统性下跌 基础，仍是资产配置中重要的稳定器。 来源：@究竟视频微博 #洪灏称黄金已不再只是避险资产# 【#经济学家称人民币大概率稳步升值#】 黄金与贵金属：从避险资产到"估值锚" 在对贵金属的判断上，洪灏的立场较为乐观。他认为，在全球信用体系重塑背景下，黄金已不再只是传 统意义上的避险资产，而正逐步成为新一轮资产定价体系中的"核心锚"。从长期技术形态与全球流动性 指标来看，黄金仍处于大周期上行阶段，其价格中枢有望显著抬升。 在此基础上，他进一步强调白银及部分有色金属的弹性机会。由于白银在历史尺度上与全球流动性高度 相关，且金银比、金铜比等指标仍处于偏低区间，贵金属内部的结构性行情或尚未充分展开。 人民币资产：汇率与股市的共振逻辑 在人民币资产方面，多位首席经济学家形成了较为一致的判断。郑后成认为，在美联储降息周期与中国 价格水平回升的共同作用下，2026年人民币汇率大概率呈现稳步升值态势，升值节奏可能延续至2027 年。 申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟进一步指出，人民币已于2025年进入升值通道，从2026年起，未来数年内可 能形成更 ...

Core Insights - A significant move in the international financial arena has been made by a certain country, issuing large amounts of bonds in the dollar market, aiming to establish a more credible asset pricing system compared to a certain Western power [1] - The bond issuance saw a subscription rate of 30 times, far exceeding the 2.5 times subscription level of the Western power's government bonds, indicating global capital's recognition and a shift towards a pricing power contest in the dollar-dominated financial landscape [1] Group 1 - The country issued dollar bonds with a 3-year interest rate of 3.64% and a 5-year rate of 3.79%, nearly on par with the Western power's government bond rates, reflecting a fundamental change in international investors' risk assessment [3] - In 2017, the country’s bond rates were 1.5 to 2 percentage points higher, showing a significant improvement in perceived risk [3] Group 2 - The country has a low debt-to-GDP ratio and substantial foreign exchange reserves, contrasting sharply with the Western power, which has a massive debt burden exceeding safe limits, with interest payments in 2024 projected to be astronomical [6] - The country’s bond rates are 1 percentage point lower than those of the Western power, indicating higher market confidence in its creditworthiness [6] - Despite the market's recognition, Western rating agencies continue to assign lower credit ratings than warranted, leading to growing skepticism about their credibility as investors increasingly rely on actual market performance [6]

Group 1 - HSBC raised its 2025 gold price forecast by $100 to $3,455 per ounce, expecting it to reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026 [1] - Despite record gold prices, physical gold demand in Asia remains strong, with India's premiums hitting a ten-year high before the festival season [1] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that gold prices could potentially reach $5,000 per ounce and may even touch $10,000 per ounce under current market conditions [1] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the U.S. economy and job market are facing recession risks due to government shutdowns, which may strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The ongoing fiscal and monetary policy turmoil in developed countries like Europe and Japan is expected to reshape a new asset pricing system, favoring commodities like precious metals [3] - Short-term uncertainties from Trump's policies and U.S.-China tensions may affect the pace of gold price increases, with market volatility anticipated before the APEC meeting in late October [3]