Core Viewpoint - The proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% by President Trump could have significant negative consequences for consumers and the economy, according to corporate executives from major companies [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Consumers - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon indicated that the implementation of the proposed interest rate cap would be dramatic and could restrict access to credit for consumers, particularly those with subprime risk profiles [1][3]. - CFO of JPMorgan, Jeremy Barnum, noted that service changes would likely occur, affecting credit card users with higher risk, leading to increased financial instability [2]. - Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian expressed concerns that the proposal would restrict lower-end consumers from accessing credit, fundamentally disrupting the credit card industry [5]. Group 2: Economic Ramifications - Barnum warned that the loss of credit access would have severe negative consequences for consumers and potentially for the economy as a whole [3]. - Delta's revenue from its co-branded credit card partnership with American Express grew 11% year over year to $8.2 billion in 2025, highlighting the importance of credit access for revenue generation [4]. Group 3: Legislative Challenges - It remains unclear how the proposed one-year credit card APR limit could be implemented without Congressional legislation, with House Speaker Mike Johnson indicating he would explore the idea [3]. - Johnson acknowledged the potential for "unintended consequences" stemming from the proposed policy, a sentiment shared by other industry leaders [4].

Economic Data - The U.S. consumer prices rose +0.3% month-over-month in December, with annual inflation at +2.7%, consistent with expectations [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and fuel, increased by +0.2% month-over-month and +2.6% year-over-year, which was below expectations of +0.3% and +2.7% respectively [1] - U.S. new home sales fell -0.1% month-over-month to 737K in October, surpassing expectations of 716K [1] Market Performance - Wall Street's major indexes closed lower, with software stocks declining after Anthropic's new tool announcement, leading to Salesforce dropping over -7% and Adobe falling more than -5% [2] - Credit card companies also saw declines, with Visa down over -4% and Mastercard dropping more than -3% following President Trump's proposal for a cap on credit card interest rates [2] - Moderna's shares surged over +17% after the CEO announced plans for a combined flu and COVID-19 vaccine launch within two years [2] Corporate Earnings - The fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is underway, with major U.S. banks like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup set to report [7] - S&P 500 companies are expected to see an average quarterly earnings increase of +8.4% for Q4 compared to the previous year [7] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a 97.2% probability of no change and a 2.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the January meeting [6] - Fed officials expressed that inflation risks are easing, with expectations for prices to align with the central bank's target later this year [5] International Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index decreased by -0.10% amid cautious sentiment ahead of U.S. economic data and bank earnings [13] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index reached a new record high, driven by potential political changes and strong performances in healthcare, energy, and banking sectors [17][18] - China's trade surplus hit a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, with exports rising +5.5% year-over-year, indicating robust manufacturing strength [15]

Core Viewpoint - Credit card stocks, particularly American Express, experienced a decline following President Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, raising concerns about potential impacts on profitability [1][2][3] Company Performance - American Express reported a strong third-quarter performance with revenue rising 11% year over year to a record $18.4 billion and earnings per share increasing 19% to $4.14 [7] - Discount revenue grew 7% year over year to $9.4 billion, while net card fee revenue surged 18% year over year to approximately $2.6 billion, and net interest income rose 12% year over year to $4.5 billion [8] - Card member spending growth accelerated to 9% year over year, supported by new account acquisitions and increased spending from existing members, with a low net write-off rate of 1.9% [9] Potential Impact of Policy Change - A proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates could negatively affect American Express's business model, particularly its net interest income, which accounted for about one-fourth of its third-quarter revenue [4][6] - The cap may force credit card companies to lower credit limits for higher-risk borrowers, leading to reduced card member spending and lower discount revenue [5] - Investors are advised to monitor the situation closely, as the proposed policy could significantly impact credit card companies and banks that lend to credit card users [11]

Economic Outlook - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that the US economy is robust, expecting above-potential growth, and advised against an accommodative stance from the Fed [1] - The US December CPI remained unchanged from November at +2.7% year-over-year, while the core CPI also held steady at +2.6% year-over-year, which was below the expected +2.7% [1] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed down -0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index down -0.80%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index down -0.18% on Tuesday [5] - Stocks experienced a brief rise due to easing inflation concerns, but ultimately retreated as software stocks sold off following the release of a new AI tool by Anthropic [3][4] Sector Movements - Energy-producing stocks increased as WTI crude oil rose over +2% to a 2.25-month high, influenced by geopolitical risks and US tariffs on goods from countries doing business with Iran [3] - Software stocks faced declines, with Salesforce down more than -7%, Adobe down more than -5%, and Intuit down more than -4% after the AI tool announcement [12] Earnings and Forecasts - Q4 earnings season is beginning, with S&P earnings growth expected to rise by +8.4%, and +4.6% excluding the Magnificent Seven technology stocks [7] - Cardinal Health raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to at least $10.00, exceeding the previous forecast of $9.65-$9.85 [19] International Markets - Overseas stock markets showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.22%, China's Shanghai Composite down -0.64%, and Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 up +3.10% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% by President Trump could have significant negative consequences for consumers and the economy, according to corporate executives from major companies [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Consumers - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon indicated that the implementation of the proposed interest rate cap would be dramatic, potentially limiting access to credit for consumers, particularly those with subprime risk profiles [1][3]. - CFO of JPMorgan, Jeremy Barnum, noted that service changes would likely occur, affecting credit card users with higher risk, leading to increased financial instability for these consumers [2]. - Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian expressed concerns that the proposal would restrict lower-end consumers from accessing credit, fundamentally disrupting the credit card industry [5]. Group 2: Economic Ramifications - Barnum warned that limiting access to credit could have severe negative consequences for the economy as a whole, particularly affecting those who rely on credit the most [3]. - Delta's revenue from its co-branded credit card partnership with American Express grew by 11% year over year, highlighting the importance of credit card revenue streams for companies [4]. - Bastian emphasized the challenges of implementing such a policy, suggesting it could upend the entire credit card industry and create unintended consequences [5].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase is opposing President Trump's proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates, arguing it would negatively impact consumers and necessitate significant changes to the bank's credit card operations [1][2][4]. Group 1: JPMorgan's Position - JPMorgan's Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum stated that the proposed cap would be "very bad for consumers" and the economy [1]. - Barnum indicated that if the cap were implemented, the bank would have to make substantial changes to its credit card business [2]. - CEO Jamie Dimon supported Barnum's comments, emphasizing that the bank would need to adjust its business model to account for the increased risks and price controls [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Legislative Pressure - As of 2025, JPMorgan held approximately $211 billion in outstanding credit card balances, representing about 18% of the U.S. market [6]. - The bank's U.S. credit card loan book was around $235 billion as of Q3 2025, with expectations of growth following the acquisition of Apple's credit card portfolio [7]. - President Trump is advocating for the Credit Card Competition Act, which aims to allow retailers to route transactions away from Visa and Mastercard, potentially disrupting the current fee structure [10][11][13]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The renewed legislative push has caused market fluctuations, with Visa shares down nearly 4% and Mastercard's stock down over 3.5% [16].

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are experiencing a mixed session with major indexes showing slight pullbacks as investors assess inflation data and fourth-quarter earnings reports [1][2] - The S&P 500 Index is down less than 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite Index has slipped 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 0.6% [2] Economic Indicators - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a 2.7% year-over-year rise in headline inflation, matching expectations, while core inflation is at 2.6%, slightly below the projected 2.8% [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to below 4.18% from 4.20% following the CPI data release, indicating potential room for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4] Earnings Reports - JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported adjusted profits exceeding expectations but with slightly lower revenue, leading to a 2.5% decline in shares [7] - Delta Air Lines (DAL) shares fell nearly 6% pre-bell and 1.5% in recent trading after forecasting lower-than-expected profit growth for fiscal 2026, despite reporting operating revenue of $16.00 billion [7] - L3Harris Technologies (LHX) shares surged 3% to an all-time high following plans to spin off its Missile Solutions business, supported by a $1 billion government investment [8] Sector Movements - A sector rotation trend has been observed since late December 2025, with the Dow Jones and small-cap Russell 2000 outperforming AI-heavy mega-cap technology stocks [3] Corporate Developments - Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc. (SNCY) shares jumped 10.6% after announcing an acquisition agreement with Allegiant Travel (ALGT) valued at $18.89 per share [10] - Posco Holdings Inc. (PKX) shares rose 12% after raising $700 million in global bond markets and providing a positive earnings outlook for 2026 [11] Political Impact - President Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has negatively impacted financial stocks, with Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) down 5%, and American Express Company (AXP) down 4.3% [9]

Economic Indicators - October new home sales are expected to decline by -10.6% month-over-month to 715,000 units [1] - November PPI final demand is projected to rise by +2.7% year-over-year, with core PPI also expected to increase by +2.7% year-over-year [1] - December existing home sales are anticipated to increase by +2.2% month-over-month to 4.22 million [1] - Weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to rise by +7,000 to 215,000 [1] - January Empire manufacturing survey is expected to improve by +4.9 to 1.0 [1] - December manufacturing production is forecasted to decrease by -0.1% month-over-month [1] Stock Market Movements - Credit card companies are experiencing declines, with Visa down more than -3% and Mastercard down more than -2% following President Trump's comments on interest rate caps [3][12] - Energy-producing stocks are rising, with WTI crude oil increasing over 1% to a 1.75-month high due to geopolitical risks [4] - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.02%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index is up +0.09% [6] - Mining stocks are gaining, with Hecla Mining up more than +3% and Barrick Mining up more than +2% due to rising silver prices [11] Earnings and Forecasts - Q4 earnings growth for S&P companies is expected to rise by +8.4%, with a +4.6% increase excluding the Magnificent Seven tech stocks [7] - Option Care Health's stock is up more than +9% after a positive EBITDA growth forecast for 2026 [12] - Revvity's preliminary Q4 revenue of $772 million exceeds the consensus of $756.9 million, leading to a stock increase of more than +9% [13] - Cardinal Health raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to at least $10.00, stronger than the consensus of $9.83, resulting in a stock increase of more than +3% [14] International Markets - The Euro Stoxx 50 reached a new record high, up +0.41%, while Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up sharply by +3.10% [8]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are experiencing volatility as investors react to inflation data and the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season, with major indexes previously closing at record highs [1][5] - Premarket trading showed a mixed trend, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.2% to 0.3%, and S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures declining by 0.1% to 0.2% [2] - Following the release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), futures for major indexes reversed earlier declines, with Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones futures rising by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [3] Commodities and Currency - Gold futures remained stable near record highs, while silver futures surged to an all-time high of $87.56 per ounce [4] - WTI crude oil futures increased by approximately 2% to $60.70 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential tariffs on countries doing business with Iran [4] - Bitcoin was trading around $92,000, and the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.1% to 98.92 [4] Earnings Reports - The fourth-quarter earnings season commenced, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. reporting a drop in profit due to a one-time charge, but excluding this charge, profits increased [8][13] - Delta Air Lines experienced a premarket decline of 4-5% after releasing profit forecasts that fell short of market expectations [13] - Other companies reporting include Bank of New York Mellon and Concentrix, with Delta's results particularly scrutinized for insights into the travel industry's health [8] Stock Movements - L3Harris Technologies shares surged by 11-12% after announcing plans to spin off its Missile Solutions business, supported by a $1 billion investment from the Defense Department [13] - Chipmakers Intel and AMD saw gains of 3.6% and 2.6% respectively, following an upgrade to "overweight" by KeyBanc due to strong data-center demand [13] - Alphabet's stock rose by 0.68% after achieving a $4 trillion market valuation, bolstered by news of Google Gemini enhancing Apple's Siri [13] Other Corporate News - Xpeng Inc. ADR shares dipped 2.63% despite plans to establish localized supply chain teams in Europe and ASEAN [13] - Travere Therapeutics saw a significant slump of 28% after an FDA request for clarification on its therapy's clinical benefits [13] - Synopsys shares fell 2.3% following a downgrade to "neutral" by Piper Sandler, citing growth headwinds [13] - Credit card companies stabilized in premarket trading after experiencing declines due to proposed caps on interest rates [13] - Walmart gained on news of its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index [13]

Market Overview - World shares exhibited mixed performance with U.S. futures declining slightly ahead of the U.S. consumer price update [1] - In early European trading, the FTSE 100 rose less than 1% while Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 fell by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively [2] Inflation and Consumer Prices - U.S. consumer prices are expected to have risen by 2.6% in December compared to the previous year, according to economists' estimates [2] - Inflation pressures are likely to remain high due to increased costs in electricity, groceries, and clothing [3] Regional Market Performance - Asian shares mostly gained, with Japan's Nikkei 225 surging 3.1% to a record close of 53,549.16, driven by technology-related stocks [3] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 0.9% to 26,848.47, while shares of GigaDevice Semiconductor jumped 54% in its trading debut [5] - South Korea's Kospi closed 1.5% higher at a record 4,692.64, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained nearly 0.6% [5] U.S. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates were somewhat mitigated by investor expectations of potential rate cuts [6] - Tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell escalated following a subpoena from the Department of Justice regarding Powell's testimony [7] - Trump has advocated for further interest rate cuts, which could benefit stock prices by lowering borrowing costs [8] Company-Specific Developments - Alphabet, Google's parent company, saw a 1% increase in market value, surpassing $4 trillion, following a deal with Apple to enhance Siri using Google's technology [8] - Credit card companies faced losses after Trump proposed a cap on credit card interest rates, impacting their profit margins [9]