大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货宽幅震荡，最终报收 1609（+2/+0.12%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价稳中下调，成交一般，河南出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1490-1500 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1540-1550 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1400-1470 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【隆众尿素】10 月 21 日，尿素行业日产 18.25 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.03 万吨； 较去年同期减少 0.66 万吨；今日开工率 77.99%，较去年同期 84.82%下降 6.83%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交平平。山东地区 主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕， 成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交 乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价跟涨，贸 易 ...

（文章来源：商务部网站） 根据《中华人民共和国货物进出口管理条例》《化肥进口关税配额管理暂行办法》，商务部制定了 《2026年化肥进口关税配额总量、分配原则及相关程序》，现予公布，请遵照执行。2026年化肥进口关 税配额总量为1365万吨。其中，尿素330万吨；磷酸氢二铵690万吨；复合肥345万吨。 ...

策略 尿素日报 | 2025-10-21 尿素9月出口137万吨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-20，尿素主力收盘1600元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1550 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-50 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-50元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：-40元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（-10），出口利润983元 /吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-20，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-20，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，再次小幅下调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行 中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea prices have been oscillating at a low level recently, and the spot market remains dull. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not emerged. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to oscillate at a low level. However, the current urea valuation is at a low level, and short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see (viewpoint score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On October 20, UR01 in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 was 1675 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.18%; UR09 was 1708 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. In Shandong, it was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Henan, it remained unchanged at 1550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Hebei, it was 1580 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.63%; in the Northeast and Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 1620 yuan/ton and 1560 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite price in Henan was 1030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 3.00%; in Shanxi, it remained unchanged at 880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged at 5067 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 125 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1]. 3.3. Important Information - On October 15, India's RCF urea import tender received 366 million tons of supplies from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was 402 US dollars/ton on the west coast and 395 US dollars/ton on the east coast. In September 2025, urea imports were 76.08 tons, a 2.01% month - on - month decrease; from January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1977.06 tons, a 49.06% year - on - year decrease. In September, urea exports were 137.12 million tons, a 72.12% month - on - month increase; from January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 281.23 million tons, a 1007.70% year - on - year increase [1].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fertilizer industry is facing intensified competition, leading to a significant decline in urea prices and increased losses for companies due to oversupply and weak demand [1][2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Urea prices in North China fell below 1600 RMB per ton in September, with further declines observed post-National Day, reaching 1500-1570 RMB in Shandong and 1490-1520 RMB in Shanxi, marking over a 20% year-on-year drop [1][2]. - The overall urea production capacity in China is projected to reach 7900 million tons by the end of the year, with an expected oversupply of 5-6 million tons [2][6]. - The agricultural demand for urea is limited, with a decrease in summer grain planting area and a slowdown in industrial demand due to the real estate sector's downturn [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of urea enterprises is approximately 82.39%, down 3.64 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant increase in urea inventory, reaching 145.98 million tons as of October 5 [4][5]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with downstream purchasing activity low and a lack of strong demand leading to continuous price declines [3][4]. Group 3: Export Policies - The National Development and Reform Commission has adjusted fertilizer export policies, allowing for a total of 450 million tons to be exported by the end of September, but the allocation of export quotas has favored storage enterprises over production companies [6][7]. - Companies have suggested optimizing the export quota distribution to increase the share for production enterprises and dynamically adjusting export policies based on market conditions [7].

天眼查App显示，近日，内蒙古施尔丰化肥有限公司成立，法定代表人为房旭光，注册资本536.18万人 民币，经营范围为许可项目：肥料生产；农药批发；农药零售。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批 准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：化肥销售；农 作物种子经营（仅限不再分装的包装种子）；初级农产品收购；农副产品销售；普通货物仓储服务（不 含危险化学品等需许可审批的项目）；非居住房地产租赁；住房租赁；机械设备租赁；农业机械租赁； 农业机械服务；饲料原料销售；豆类种植；谷物种植；薯类种植；中草药种植；产业用纺织制成品销 售；草种植；园艺产品种植；农作物病虫害防治服务；林业有害生物防治服务；农业专业及辅助性活 动；城市绿化管理；农业园艺服务；智能农业管理；农业生产托管服务；灌溉服务；食用农产品初加 工；农作物秸秆处理及加工利用服务；畜牧专业及辅助性活动；园林绿化工程施工；技术服务、技术开 发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开 展经营活动）。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Batian Co., announced a cash dividend distribution plan for the first half of 2025, proposing a payout of 1.6 RMB per 10 shares to all shareholders, including tax [2] - The record date for the dividend distribution is set for October 27, 2025, while the ex-dividend date is October 28, 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved a cash dividend distribution plan for the first half of 2025, with a payout of 1.60 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1] Summary by Categories Dividend Distribution - The total share capital is 967,669,957 shares, and the cash dividend will be distributed at a rate of 1.60 yuan per 10 shares, including tax [1] - No bonus shares will be issued, and there will be no capital reserve conversion to increase share capital [1] - The record date for the dividend is set for 2025, with the ex-dividend date also in 2025 [1] Implementation Details - The cash dividends will be credited to shareholders' accounts in 2025, with some A-share shareholders receiving cash dividends directly from the company [1] - Following the dividend distribution, the company will make corresponding adjustments to matters related to equity incentives [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic urea market is currently characterized by a loose supply - demand situation. Although the export window is about to close and the impact on the domestic market sentiment is limited, the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. With the end of autumn fertilizer demand in North and Central China, the overall demand is declining. In the short term, the domestic demand remains limited, and the spot market sentiment is still low. The fundamental situation is still loose, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1600 (unchanged, 0% change) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices were stable to slightly lower, and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1490 - 1500 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1400 - 1470 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On October 20th, the daily urea production in the industry was 182,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous working day and a decrease of 6600 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.99%, a decrease of 6.83 percentage points compared to 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Market Sentiment and Price Forecast**: In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory price led the decline, and the market sentiment was average. It is expected that the ex - factory price will be weakly stable. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the ex - factory price followed the decline. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory price was weakly stable, and it is expected to decline mainly. - **Supply and Demand**: Some plants were under maintenance, and the average daily production decreased to around 187,000 tons. On the demand side, the result of the Indian tender was about to be announced. Although the price difference between domestic and foreign markets was large, the export window was about to close. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China was basically over, the grass - roots stocking was coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants declined, and the demand for raw materials was low. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 170,000 tons to around 1.61 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Short on rebounds. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The bearish sentiment towards urea has improved, and the price has stopped falling and stabilized after reaching the cost line. However, as autumn fertilizers are gradually ending, agricultural demand support is expected to be short - lived. Future urea demand will mainly be for reserve purchases, with high pressure on inventory reduction. The market will generally remain sluggish, and the price will stop falling and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the impact of major domestic conferences on the market and any changes in exports [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - Due to the delay in the farming season, downstream buyers are not active, and upstream factories' quotes are mainly weakly stable, resulting in a stalemate between upstream and downstream. Since the weekend, urea prices have been moderately declining. The autumn fertilizer market is in progress but lacks vitality [3]. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market showed mixed trends, with an overall relatively strong performance. As of October 20, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,600 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the settlement price on October 13. Last week's weekly trading volume was 14.278 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7114 million tons; the open interest was 8.1525 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5074 million tons. The bearish sentiment in the market has weakened, and the market has stopped falling and stabilized, but there is no strong driving force for a significant rebound. The basis has strengthened. As of October 20, the basis of the 01 contract was - 50 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2 yuan/ton. On October 20, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,238, a week - on - week decrease of 679 [5][8]. Urea Supply - Last week, urea weekly production decreased. From October 9 - 15, urea weekly production was 1.3205 million tons, a decrease of 69,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%, with an average daily production of 188,600 tons. Coal - based weekly production was 1.1097 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.37%; gas - based weekly production was 280,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%. Small - particle weekly production was 112,180 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.28%; large - particle weekly production was 268,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. Next week, production is expected to continue to decline. On October 20, the national daily urea production was 195,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.39%. Coal prices have risen, and the price of domestic liquefied natural gas has fallen. As of October 20, the benchmark price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 3,662 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. The price center of synthetic ammonia has moved down, and the methanol spot price has risen [11][13][15]. Urea Demand - Last week, the price of compound fertilizers remained flat compared to the previous week. As of October 20, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizers was 2,900 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Due to the delay in autumn harvest and sowing, downstream buyers are cautious, mostly replenishing at low prices without concentrated purchases. Compound fertilizer factories have reduced their operating loads, and terminal sales are mainly focused on digesting finished product inventories. The compound fertilizer operating rate has decreased. From October 13 - 20, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29 percentage points from the previous period, but 3.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The demand for melamine is still weak. As of October 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6154 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 171,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.88%, and 498,900 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 4.446 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous week [19][20][21]. International Market - On October 15, India's RCF urea import tender received 3.66 million tons of supplies from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR quote on the west coast was $402/ton, and on the east coast was $395/ton. The tender price was lower than market expectations, and the international urea price was not significantly boosted. In September 2025, China's urea export volume was about 1.37 million tons, and from January to September 2025, the total export volume was about 2.81 million tons. As of October 17, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was $385/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was $392.5/ton, unchanged from the previous week [23][25].