Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the potassium fertilizer market, highlighting the price agreements for 2025 contracts and the implications for supply and demand dynamics in the context of global geopolitical uncertainties [2][3][4]. Group 1: Potassium Fertilizer Contracts - In June 2025, a major potassium fertilizer import contract was established between the Russian Potash Company (BPC) and Indian importer IPL at a price of $349 per ton, marking a $70 per ton increase (25%) from the previous year [2]. - On June 12, 2025, China's potassium fertilizer import negotiation team reached an agreement with a Dubai-based supplier for a contract price of $346 per ton CFR, translating to approximately 2830 RMB per ton based on the exchange rate at that time [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Uncertainties - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contribute to uncertainties in the global potassium chloride supply chain, prompting China to enhance its focus on the security of strategic resources like potassium [3]. - The potential for further sanctions from Western countries against major potassium producers such as Russia and Belarus adds to the supply chain risks [3]. Group 3: Future Demand Projections - Global demand for potassium chloride is projected to exceed 80 million tons by 2030, driven by population growth and increasing food quality expectations, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.3%-3.2% from 2023 to 2030 [4]. - China is expected to be the largest market for potassium chloride, with demand estimated at 17.5-18.5 million tons in 2024, while other Asian regions are anticipated to see significant growth in demand, increasing by 37.4%-48.4% compared to 2020 levels [4].

【冠通研究】 跌至历史低点，盘面小幅反弹 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内高开高走小幅翻红，现货报价跌势显著，连续下跌之 下，工厂出货压力增加，关注今日翻红后周末成交情况。基本面来看，日产高 位带来的压力尚无改善预期，供应端减弱拐点未至，日产维持在 20 万吨左右， 上游工厂依然以临时检修减产为主，本周目前有三家企业有检修计划。需求 端，东北玉米追肥即将展开，华北地区农需仍在等待启动；复合肥厂内成品库 存去化受阻，开工负荷连续下调，企业以销定产，对尿素支撑边际继续减弱， 其他工业需求也多以羸弱为主，供需宽松格局明显。库存端出口集港预计在六 月下旬之后进行，出口企业主动累库，且新单成交不畅，供应不减压力下，企 业库存连连增加。整体来说，今日尿素小幅反弹主要系低位盘整，基本面尚无 改善，依然处于宽松格局，盘面向上动能不足，具体高度需关注出口情况及农 需拿货。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1655 元/吨高开高走，最终收于 1661 元/吨， 收成一根阳线，涨跌 0.42%，持仓量 284793 手（-22286 手）。前二十名主力持 仓席位来看，多头- ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's operating cash flow in Q1 2025 was 1.042 billion, a significant decrease from -1.151 billion in the same period last year [1] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 28.63% of the net profit attributable to the parent company [2] - The company's revenue has remained stable at around 15 billion over the past three years, with no significant growth [2] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - The compound fertilizer sales increased from 3.83 million tons in 2022 to 4.35 million tons in 2024, indicating growth in volume despite revenue stagnation due to raw material price adjustments [2] - The company aims to enhance its market share by deepening integration advantages and expanding sales channels [2] - Compared to competitors with revenues around 10 billion, the company has not demonstrated the expected market scale benefits of a leading enterprise [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Projects - The company has not yet met the conditions to inject the Lianhua Mountain phosphate mine into the listed company [2] - The Zhuyuan Gully phosphate mine is still under construction and does not currently produce phosphate ore [2] - Investors are advised to monitor future announcements regarding the company's performance and project developments [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the potassium fertilizer industry, highlighting the importance of securing supply chains and agricultural stability [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The price for potassium fertilizer contracts in China for 2025 has been set at $346 per ton CFR, which is a crucial development for ensuring supply for the upcoming agricultural seasons [1]. - Global potassium chloride demand is projected to exceed 80 million tons by 2030, driven by population growth and increased food quality demands, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.3%-3.2% from 2023 to 2030 [3]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continues to create uncertainties in the global potassium supply chain, prompting China to focus more on the security of strategic resources like potassium [2]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer Contracts - In June 2025, a significant potassium fertilizer import contract was finalized between Chinese companies and a Dubai-based supplier, establishing a price of $346 per ton, which is essential for maintaining supply stability [1]. Global Demand Forecast - By 2030, global potassium chloride demand is expected to rise by 12-17 million tons compared to 2023 levels, with China being the largest market, anticipated to require 17.5-18.5 million tons in 2024 [3]. Strategic Resource Security - The report emphasizes the need for China to enhance its focus on the security of strategic resources like potassium due to ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the fertilizer industry, indicating a recovery in the sector's prosperity [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - Population growth is expected to support food demand, thereby driving an increase in fertilizer consumption. The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts that global fertilizer consumption will continue to grow through 2025 [4][7]. - China's fertilizer production has been steadily increasing, with an expected output of 60.06 million tons of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers in 2024, representing an 8.5% year-on-year growth [11]. - Urea prices are recovering, leading to improved profitability for urea producers. The price recovery is driven by spring planting demand and a decline in coal prices, which has widened the price gap for urea [30]. - The phosphate sector remains robust, supported by limited new capacity and a favorable supply-demand balance. Phosphate rock prices are expected to remain high due to the long construction cycles for new mining projects [41][47]. - Potash prices are on the rise, with contract prices for imports to China and India set at $346 and $349 per ton, respectively, indicating a positive trend for global potash prices [63][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Population Growth and Fertilizer Demand - Global population growth is projected to continue, reaching a peak of 10.3 billion by mid-2080, which will support increased food demand and fertilizer consumption [7][10]. - China's fertilizer supply is crucial for food production, with government measures in place to stabilize fertilizer prices and ensure supply [11] 2. Urea Market - Domestic urea production capacity is expected to reach 76.96 million tons in 2024, with a production increase of 8.25% year-on-year [15]. - Urea inventory levels are low, and the operating rate is close to 90%, indicating a tight supply situation [23][30]. - The export volume of urea has significantly decreased, with a 94% drop in 2024 compared to the previous year [28]. 3. Phosphate Market - The phosphate market is characterized by limited new capacity and a stable operating rate, with phosphate rock production increasing by 13.9% year-on-year in early 2025 [41][44]. - The price of phosphate rock remains a critical support for phosphate fertilizer prices, with domestic prices holding steady [41][47]. 4. Potash Market - China's potash import dependency is projected to reach 67% in 2024, with a slight increase in import volumes in early 2025 [50][56]. - The recovery in potash prices is supported by supply constraints from major producers in Belarus and Russia, with domestic prices rising significantly [65][66]. 5. Related Companies - **Hualu Hengsheng**: Optimizing product structure and enhancing cost advantages through clean gasification platforms, with a urea production capacity of 3.07 million tons [71]. - **Yuntianhua**: Rich in phosphate resources, the company has a production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year and is actively pursuing new mining projects [74]. - **Yaka International**: Positioned to benefit from the recovery in potash prices, with significant production and sales increases expected in 2025 [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand contradiction of urea persists, and the futures price has reached a new low in the past five months. The downstream agricultural demand is advancing slower than expected, and the industrial demand has decreased. After the inspection information for urea exports is clarified, the export window has opened, but the port inventory has only increased slightly. Some upstream factory inventories are still in the inspection stage, and the factory inventory has accumulated. The urea production facilities have few maintenance activities, and the production remains at a high level, resulting in a relatively loose supply. The prices of upstream raw materials such as coal and natural gas have changed slightly, and the cost has remained stable [1] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the market prices of small granular urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, the price of the urea main continuous contract, and the 1-5, 5-9, and 9-1 spreads [7][8][9][12][15] Urea Production - The report shows figures on the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [15] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report presents figures on production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal-based capacity utilization rate, and gas-based capacity utilization rate [17][30][28] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The report contains figures on the FOB prices of small and large granular urea in the Baltic Sea and Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small and large granular urea in China, the price differences, and the export and futures export profits [27][29][33][37][39] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report provides figures on the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei [46][42][47] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on upstream factory inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [45][47][50]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese potassium fertilizer import negotiation group has reached an agreement with a Dubai-based company on the 2025 annual import contract price, set at $346 per ton CFR, which reflects a significant increase from last year's price of $273 per ton CFR [1][2]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - The agreed contract price of $346 per ton CFR is $73 higher than last year's price and is $3 lower than the recent contract price signed by India [1]. - The current market price for potassium fertilizer in China is significantly higher than the agreed contract price, with domestic prices for 60% potassium chloride ranging from 3200 to 3250 yuan per ton [1]. - Recent trends show a general decline in potassium chloride prices in China, with a decrease of 50 yuan per ton this week [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The negotiation group, consisting of companies like Sinochem and China National Agricultural Development Group, has been active since 2005, with the highest historical price recorded in 2022 at $590 per ton [2]. - China is a major importer of potassium fertilizer, with a projected increase in import volume for 2024, reaching 1263 million tons, up from 1157 million tons in 2023 [2]. - In contrast, India is entirely reliant on imports for its potassium fertilizer needs, having imported 3 million tons last year [2]. Group 3: Import Statistics - According to Chinese customs data, the total import volume of potassium fertilizer in April 2025 is approximately 1.22 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% for potassium chloride [2]. - The import of sulfate potassium has also seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 211.1% [2].

尿素日报 | 2025-06-12 工业需求下降，工厂库存上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-11，尿素主力收盘1667元/吨（-11）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：83 元/吨（+1）；河南基差：83元/吨（+1）；江苏基差：83元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润185元/吨（-10），出口利润608 元/吨（+2）。 供应端：截至2025-06-11，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.71 万吨（+14.17），港口样 本库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-11，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.71日（+0.24）。 尿素工业需求下降，虽然目前处于传统农业需求旺季，但下游需求不温不火，农需推进不及预期，工业复合肥及 板材行业开工下降，市场情绪偏弱，工厂库存继续上涨。尿素出口法检相关信息明确后，出 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 股权登记日：2025 年 6 月 11 日 ? 除权日：2025 年 6 月 12 日 ? 本次上市无限售股份数量：12,368,421股 ? 上市日期：2025 年 6 月 12 日 ? 是否涉及差异化分红送转：否 一、 新增无限售流通股上市情况 （一） 权益分派方案简述： 中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司 （二） 股权登记日、除权日 本次权益分派的股权登记日为：2025 年 6 月 11 日。 本次权益分派的除权日为：2025 年 6 月 12 日。 （三） 上市数量 本次上市无限售股份数量为：12,368,421股 （四） 上市时间 本次上市流通日期为：2025 年 6 月 12 日 二、 有关咨询办法 联系部门：董事会办公室。 联系电话：0551-63515128。 特此公告。 本次利润分配及转增股本以方案实施前的中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司 总股本200,000,000股为基数，每股派发现金红利0.15元（含税），以资本公积金 向全体股东每股转增 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-11 市场情绪较弱，尿素延续下行 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-10，尿素主力收盘1678元/吨（-19）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1780元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：82 元/吨（+19）；河南基差：82元/吨（+19）；江苏基差：102元/吨（+19）；尿素生产利润195元/吨（+0），出口利润 605元/吨（+72）。 供应端：截至2025-06-10，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为103.54 万吨（+5.48），港口样本 库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-10，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.47日（-0.41）。 市场情绪较弱，市场延续下行，当前处于传统农需旺季，下游持续推进，但农需推进不及预期，工业复合肥及板 材行业开工下降，工业需求减少。煤炭、天然气等上游原料价格窄幅变动，成本端稳定延续 ...