Core Points - The European credit rating agency has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-" due to deteriorating public finances and declining government governance standards [1] - The report predicts that without substantial reforms, U.S. government debt as a percentage of GDP could rise to 140% by 2030, significantly higher than most sovereign nations [1] - The agency has assigned a "stable" outlook for the U.S. rating, indicating balanced risks for upgrades and downgrades in the next 12 to 18 months [1] Financial Condition - The U.S. public finances are characterized by persistently high fiscal deficits, rising interest expenditures, and limited budget flexibility, leading to an ongoing increase in government debt levels [1] - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion, marking a significant increase from $37 trillion just two months prior [2] Governance Issues - The report highlights a decline in governance standards, citing the concentration of executive power and instances of the Trump administration ignoring court orders, which has increased policy unpredictability and risk of policy errors [1] - The uncertainty in tariff negotiations with major trading partners exemplifies the governance challenges faced by the U.S. [1] Rating Agency Actions - Other rating agencies have also downgraded U.S. ratings, with Fitch downgrading the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative" due to increased uncertainty and anticipated prolonged high interest rates [3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 earlier this year, citing rising government debt and interest payment ratios [3] Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted for 24 days as of October 24, is projected to reduce economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points for each week it continues [2] - The shutdown has set a record for the second-longest government closure in U.S. history, further complicating the fiscal landscape [2]

Core Points - The European credit rating agency has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-" due to deteriorating public finances and declining government governance standards [1] - The report predicts that without substantial reforms, U.S. government debt as a percentage of GDP could rise to 140% by 2030, significantly higher than most sovereign nations [1] - The agency noted that the concentration of executive power and the Trump administration's disregard for court orders have increased policy unpredictability and risk of policy errors [1] - The U.S. rating outlook is "stable," with balanced risks for upgrades and downgrades in the next 12 to 18 months [1] - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion, marking a significant increase in a short period [2] Financial Implications - The U.S. federal government debt reached $37 trillion in mid-August, indicating rapid growth in just over two months [2] - The ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted 24 days as of October 24, could potentially reduce economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points for each week it continues [2] - Other rating agencies, including Fitch and Moody's, have also downgraded U.S. ratings, citing increased policy risks and long-term fiscal challenges [3] - Fitch has projected that the U.S. government deficit could remain above 7% of GDP, with debt-to-GDP ratio expected to reach 135% by 2029 [3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. rating from AAA to AA1, reflecting a significant increase in government debt and interest payment ratios compared to similarly rated countries [3] Trade and Economic Impact - The new U.S. government's imposition of tariffs on trade partners has notably hampered the domestic economy [4]

新华社柏林10月25日电（记者车云龙 张毅荣）欧洲信用评级机构范围评级公司日前发布报告，将 美国主权信用评级从"AA"下调至"AA-"，原因是美国公共财政状况持续恶化及政府治理标准下降。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王雪】 该机构还表示，美国评级展望为"稳定"，未来12至18个月内评级上调与下调风险总体平衡。报告强 调，下行风险包括债务水平持续上升，以及美元作为全球储备货币的地位可能明显削弱，从而导致全球 对美国国债需求下降。 范围评级公司总部设在德国柏林，2023年成为首家获得欧洲中央银行认可的欧洲信用评级机构。该 机构信用评级体系中，"AA"之上还有两个等级。 该机构表示，美国公共财政持续恶化主要表现在财政赤字持续高企、利息支出不断上升以及预算灵 活性受限。这些因素共同推动政府债务水平持续攀升。报告预计，若缺乏实质性改革，美国政府债务占 国内生产总值（GDP）比例到2030年将升至140%，远高于大多数主权国家。 报告指出，政府治理标准下降也是评级下调重要原因。该机构认为，美国行政权力日益集中，特朗 普政府多次无视法院命令、挑战司法权威、规避国会监督，降低了政策制定的可预测性和稳定性，增加 了政策失误风险。美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has maintained France's sovereign credit rating at "Aa3" but has downgraded the outlook from "stable" to "negative," contrasting with Fitch and S&P, which both lowered France's rating to "A+" [1] Group 1: Rating Changes - Moody's decision reflects concerns over political instability in France, which may weaken the government's ability to address significant policy challenges [1] - The rating level of "Aa3" is equivalent to "AA-" in the Fitch and S&P systems [1] Group 2: Financial Concerns - Key issues highlighted include high budget deficits, rising debt levels, and increasing financing costs, which could lead to a faster-than-expected deterioration of major fiscal indicators [1] - The report emphasizes the risk of undermining the results of previous structural reforms, particularly the important pension reform measures of 2023 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Moody's warns that without effective budget plans to control spending or increase revenue, France's fiscal deficit could expand further and persist for a longer duration [1] - Despite the downgrade, Moody's notes that France's financing capacity remains relatively robust compared to comparable countries like the UK, which holds an "Aa3" rating with a "stable" outlook [1]

（央视财经《天下财经》）继国际信用评级机构惠誉和标普接连下调法国主权信用评级后，当地时间24日，穆迪也宣布，由于法国存在政治不稳定风险，因 而下调该国的评级展望。 法国今年财政预算目标是把财政赤字率降低到国内生产总值的5.4%，并在2026年把财政赤字率降至5%以下。但本月早些时候标普指出，法国"公共财政的不 确定性依然很高"，这可能抑制投资和私人消费，影响经济增长，进而拖累整体经济表现，标普已将法国主权信用评级从"AA-"下调至"A+"，今年9月惠誉也 将法国主权信用评级下调至"A+"。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：王一帆 穆迪24日发布声明称，将法国评级展望从"稳定"下调至"负面"，将法国主权信用评级维持在"Aa3"。穆迪在声明中指出，法国政治分裂带来的风险加大，政 治不稳定可能会削弱法国政府应对关键挑战的决策能力，包括不断攀升的债务水平和持续上升的借贷成本等。 法国国家统计和经济研究所9月发布的数据显示，法国公共债务在今年二季度进一步攀升，达到约3.4万亿欧元，公共债务占国内生产总值的比例升至 115.6%。 ...

Group 1 - Moody's has maintained France's sovereign credit rating at Aa3 but downgraded the outlook from "stable" to "negative" [1] - Moody's is the third major international rating agency to adjust France's sovereign credit rating, following Fitch and Standard & Poor's, which downgraded France to "A+" with a "stable" outlook [1] - The downgrade reflects concerns over weakened institutional and governance capabilities in France, as well as risks of regression in structural reforms [1] Group 2 - The French Minister of Economy and Finance, Roland Lescure, stated that Moody's decision underscores the necessity for France to reach a compromise on its budget [1] - The government aims to achieve a fiscal deficit of 5.4% of GDP by 2025 and to reduce the deficit ratio to below 3% of GDP by 2029 [1] - The IMF report indicates that without policy adjustments, France's fiscal deficit rate is expected to widen to 5.8% in 2026, further increasing to 6.2% in 2027 and 2028, and stabilizing around 6.3% in 2029 and 2030 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has maintained France's sovereign credit rating at Aa3 but has downgraded the outlook from "stable" to "negative" due to concerns over weakened institutional governance and risks of regression in structural reforms [1] Group 1: Credit Rating Changes - Moody's is the third major international rating agency to adjust France's sovereign credit rating, following Fitch and Standard & Poor's, which downgraded France's rating to "A+" with a stable outlook [1] - The downgrade in outlook reflects concerns about the long-term fragmentation of France's political landscape, which may affect the normal functioning of national institutions [1] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - Moody's warns that France's fiscal deficit is expected to remain high for an extended period, with projections indicating that the deficit could rise to 5.8% of GDP by 2026 and further to 6.2% in 2027 and 2028, stabilizing around 6.3% in 2029 and 2030 if no policy adjustments are made [1] - The French Minister of Economy and Finance, Roland Lescure, emphasized the necessity for France to reach a compromise on the budget, aiming for a fiscal deficit of 5.4% of GDP by 2025 and below 3% by 2029 [1] Group 3: Legislative Process - The 2026 fiscal bill is currently under review in the National Assembly, with discussions expected to last approximately 70 days before a vote is held in both houses of parliament [2]

Core Insights - The non-oil sector in Saudi Arabia is projected to contribute up to 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth annually from 2025 to 2028, driven primarily by real estate, tourism, and infrastructure [1] - In Q2 2025, the non-oil real GDP is expected to grow by 3.9%, with non-oil activities increasing by 4.6%, marking 18 consecutive quarters of expansion [1] - Key drivers of non-oil growth include housing programs, mortgage financing, and large-scale projects, aligning with the economic diversification goals outlined in Vision 2030 [1] - By 2025, the non-oil economy is anticipated to account for 57% of the total economic output, indicating a shift towards a sustainable transformation driven by long-term investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's credit rating agency R&I upgraded Greece's credit rating for both local and foreign currency bonds to BBB, reflecting strong economic growth, stable fiscal conditions, improved public debt sustainability, and a robust financial system [1] Economic Performance - Greece's economic growth rate has surpassed the Eurozone average, with a projected GDP growth of 2.3% for 2024 and a similar growth rate expected for 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Standard & Poor's (S&P) has confirmed Greece's credit rating at BBB with a stable outlook, indicating a positive assessment of Greece's economic stability and fiscal management [1] Economic Outlook - S&P predicts that Greece will achieve an overall fiscal surplus for the second consecutive year by 2025, positioning it among the few developed countries that will see a reduction in public debt in absolute terms for two consecutive years [1] - Despite high external imbalances, Greece's participation in the Eurozone and adherence to EU fiscal treaties provide resilience against international balance of payments shocks [1] - The economic outlook for Greece remains robust, bolstered by strong demand in investment projects and the tourism sector [1]