Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term outlook for urea is to trade sideways, and the medium - term situation depends on policies. The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. Although the fundamental pressure on urea is high and domestic demand transactions are weak, due to potential policy changes, market investment in urea is conservative. In the long - term, the terminal value expectation of the urea 01 contract remains weak, and fundamentals are the long - cycle main contradiction [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. The total new capacity in 2024 was 427 million tons, and the expected new capacity in 2025 is 346 million tons [25]. - **Production**: This week (20250821 - 0827), China's urea production was 1.3492 million tons, a decrease of 0.0119 million tons from the previous period, a 0.87% decrease. Next week, China's urea weekly production is expected to be around 1.28 - 1.29 million tons, a significant decrease from this period [3]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost corresponding to urea currently shows a profit [33][39]. - **Net Import (Export)**: With the adjustment of export policies, subsequent export volumes may increase. The second - batch export quota has been confirmed, and exports in August and September are expected to remain high, but the second - batch export transactions are slow due to price limits [3][45]. 3.2 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. Currently, the northern agricultural top - dressing demand has basically ended, and the year - on - year growth rate of top - dressing demand has declined significantly [3][51][53]. - **Industrial Demand**: - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry currently has high production and sales pressure, low operating rates, and limited demand for urea raw materials, with low acceptance of high - priced urea [3]. - **Melamine**: The melamine industry's production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate are presented in the report, showing certain fluctuations [60][61][62]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand support from the real estate industry for panels is relatively limited, but panel exports show resilience [63]. 3.3 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On August 27, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0858 million tons, an increase of 0.0619 million tons from last week, a 6.05% increase. The total inventory shows an upward trend [69]. - **Port Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025 (Week 35), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous period, a 19.76% increase. The port inventory shows an upward trend [69]. 3.4 Valuation The report presents multiple charts related to urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices (both domestic and international), showing the price trends and spreads of urea in different periods and regions [6][10][16][21]. 3.5 Strategy - **Single - side**: The UR2601 contract will trade sideways in the short - term, with resistance at 1780 - 1800 yuan/ton and support at 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is recommended to short at around 1800 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period Spread**: Reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None is recommended currently [3].

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国化肥行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 近一年中国矿物肥料及化肥出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年6月中国矿物肥料及化肥进口数量为76万吨，同比下降20.2%，进口金 额为2.58亿美元，同比下降20.1%，2025年6月中国矿物肥料及化肥出口数量为428万吨，同比增长 45.2%，出口金额为13.55亿美元，同比增长59.5%。 近一年中国矿物肥料及化肥进口情况统计图 ...

据证券之星公开数据整理，近期芭田股份（002170）发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收 入25.43亿元，同比上升63.93%，归母净利润4.56亿元，同比上升203.71%。按单季度数据看，第二季度 营业总收入14.31亿元，同比上升59.94%，第二季度归母净利润2.85亿元，同比上升192.98%。本报告期 芭田股份盈利能力上升，毛利率同比增幅45.71%，净利率同比增幅84.83%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现尚佳。其中，毛利率34.86%，同比增45.71%，净利率17.95%，同比 增84.83%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计1.68亿元，三费占营收比6.61%，同比减35.94%，每股 净资产3.83元，同比增31.68%，每股经营性现金流0.78元，同比增199.47%，每股收益0.47元，同比增 180.75% 证券之星价投圈财报分析工具显示： 业务评价：公司去年的ROIC为9.96%，资本回报率一般。去年的净利率为12.38%，算上全部成本后， 公司产品或服务的附加值高。从历史年报数据统计来看，公司近10年来中位数ROIC为4.04%，中位投资 回报较弱，其中最惨年份 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 7.56% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 14.715 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 5.04% to 1.104 billion yuan, driven by strong performance in its core business segments [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the core business segment was 10.107 billion yuan, up 29.9% year-on-year, contributing a profit of 719 million yuan, which is a 53.3% increase, mainly due to optimized strategic procurement and diversified purchasing channels [1] - The growth business segment generated revenue of 7.753 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with a profit contribution of 420 million yuan, reflecting a 5.4% rise, driven by increased sales of differentiated compound fertilizers, particularly the "Bio+" high-end products, which saw a 51% year-on-year sales increase [1] - The production business segment reported revenue of 3.202 billion yuan, an 8.4% increase year-on-year, but profit decreased by 15.6% to 301 million yuan, primarily due to rising raw material prices and a decline in urea market prices [1] Group 2: Product Strategy and Development - The company implemented a premium differentiated product strategy, achieving total sales of 4.74 million tons, a 1.72% increase year-on-year, with differentiated product sales reaching 1.5 million tons, up 13.64% [2] - In terms of "Bio+" research and development, the company established a new biological technology research model, with three core biotechnologies reaching the application stage, and launched new biological fertilizers "Zhi Yang" and "Huan Feng" [2] - The conversion of research achievements reached 1.01 million tons, with high-end product conversion volume increasing by 59% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.35 billion yuan, 1.48 billion yuan, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 6.6, 6.1, and 5.6 times [2] - The company is characterized as a high-dividend state-owned enterprise, with improvements in product structure enhancing profitability and the "Bio+" strategy accelerating implementation, supported by rich phosphate reserves, indicating promising future growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 14.72 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, also showing a 5.0% increase, meeting expectations [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.72 billion RMB, a 7.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, which is a 5.0% increase year-on-year [1]. - Earnings per share reached 0.15 RMB, marking a 5.0% year-on-year growth [1]. Business Segments - The company's core business segments achieved significant growth, with revenues from basic, growth, and production businesses reaching 7.56 billion, 5.86 billion, and 1.3 billion RMB respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 5.4%, and 4.2% [2]. - The basic business, which includes strategic procurement of potassium, phosphorus, and sulfur fertilizers, played a crucial role in stabilizing domestic agricultural supply and prices [2]. - The growth business, focusing on bio-composite fertilizers and specialty fertilizers, saw a 51% increase in high-end fertilizer sales, with notable core products gaining brand influence [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits to reach 1.23 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.59 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 14.7%, and 12.1% respectively [3]. - The upward revision of performance forecasts is attributed to rising domestic potassium prices and sustained high growth in bio-fertilizers [3]. - The target price has been raised to 1.8 HKD, corresponding to an 8.2 times forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price [3].

Core Viewpoint - Jiu Yuan Group (00827.HK) reported a significant decline in revenue and increased losses for the six months ending June 30, 2025, primarily due to a decrease in product prices [1] Financial Performance - The group's unaudited revenue for the period was approximately RMB 1.1 billion, representing a decrease of about 14.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The unaudited loss attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 186 million, an increase in loss of about RMB 56.1 million compared to the previous year [1] - The unaudited basic loss per share was approximately RMB 0.0308 [1] Dividend Policy - The board of directors does not recommend the payment of any interim dividend for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 2.183 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.15%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 43.60% to 95.1808 million yuan [1]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue reached 2.183 billion yuan, marking a 7.15% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 95.1808 million yuan, which represents a significant decline of 43.60% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 90.1083 million yuan, down 42.47% from the previous year [1]. - The basic earnings per share stood at 0.11 yuan [1].

Core Insights - The new fertilizer market is experiencing significant growth driven by optimized planting structures and large-scale agricultural operations, indicating a promising development outlook for the industry [1] - Traditional fertilizers are increasingly unable to meet the precise fertilization needs due to the growing planting area of economic crops, leading to a rapid penetration of high-efficiency and functional new fertilizers [1] - The government is promoting high-standard farmland construction, which raises the requirements for soil improvement and fertilizer utilization, further boosting the application of new fertilizers in major crops [1] Company Developments - The company is aligning with market trends by focusing on "high efficiency, precision, and functionality" to enhance its product competitiveness in the new compound fertilizer sector [1] - The market share of the company's new fertilizers, such as efficiency-enhancing and specialty fertilizers, has been steadily increasing during the reporting period [1] - The company is concentrating on three main areas for new product development: specialty fertilizers, efficiency-enhancing fertilizers, and crop-specific fertilizers, launching innovative products like fully water-soluble calcium-magnesium medium element fertilizer and small molecule oligopeptide fully water-soluble tower compound fertilizer [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yuntu Holdings announced on August 29 that its growth in phosphate compound fertilizer products is driven by increased sales volume and product structure optimization [1] Group 1: Sales Growth - The company has enhanced market penetration through channel refinement and network expansion, leading to growth in sales of conventional compound fertilizers, new-type compound fertilizers, and phosphates [1] - All categories of phosphate compound fertilizer products achieved varying degrees of growth during the reporting period [1] Group 2: Product Structure Optimization - The company leverages its complete nitrogen and phosphorus industrial chain and technological innovation to upgrade its phosphate compound fertilizer product structure towards new types, functionality, and high added value [1] - The proportion of high-margin products, such as new-type fertilizers and water-soluble ammonium phosphate, has increased, contributing to the high-quality development of the phosphate compound fertilizer business [1]