Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating [1][3][4] Core Viewpoints - The contradiction between fundamentals and macro - sentiment has intensified, with the market expected to oscillate in the short term. The fundamental pressure has increased significantly, while macro - expectations provide support. Despite high supply pressure in the fundamentals of both butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber, the market is supported by expectations, causing the market to oscillate widely within the fundamental valuation range. It is recommended to short at high valuations based on the valuation [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber (10 - contract) main contract, the daily closing price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 11,615 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 9,245 lots to 52,955 lots, the open interest decreased by 1,184 lots to 21,059 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 56,311 ten - thousand yuan to 306,525 ten - thousand yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract decreased by 10 to 135; the monthly spread of BR10 - BR11 (private) increased by 15 to 45. The prices of North China, East China, and Shandong cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton, while the price of South China cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu butadiene styrene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,750 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 75 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 71.0425%, the theoretical full cost remained unchanged at 12,028 yuan/ton, and the profit remained unchanged at - 128 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - As of September 10, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15%. Due to factors such as high inventory and weak market, both sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises saw an increase in inventory [1][3] - As of September 10, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons from the previous period. Although the inventory has decreased, there is still a supply pressure due to the expected arrival of ships next week [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical futures on September 11, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. Each commodity has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding investment suggestions [2][10]. - For most commodities, the short - term and medium - term trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand balance, device operation, inventory changes, and geopolitical events [10][17][20]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX, PTA, and MEG have different price changes in futures and spot markets. For example, PX's yesterday's closing price was 6770, with a 0.65% increase; PTA's closing price was 4698, up 0.43%; MEG's closing price was 4319, down 0.07% [5]. - **Market Trends**: PX may have a short - term rebound due to short - term device start - up decline, but it is still weak in the fourth quarter. PTA is in a tight supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply increases. MEG has a weak unilateral trend, but the downward space is limited [10][11]. - **Investment Suggestions**: For PX, it is recommended to buy on dips, conduct 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. For PTA, focus on the 11 - 01 positive spreads. For MEG, it is advisable to buy on dips [10][11]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber market shows changes in futures and spot prices, with the main contract's closing price and trading volume changing. For example, the main contract's day - trading closing price was 15,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan from the previous day [13]. - **Market Trends**: The rubber market is in a wide - range shock. Although the raw material price has a slight callback and the cost - end support weakens, the inventory continues to decline, and the holders' quotes remain firm [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: The synthetic rubber market has changes in futures and spot prices, trading volume, and inventory. For example, the main contract's trading volume decreased by 53,901 hands compared with the previous day [17]. - **Market Trends**: In the short term, the synthetic rubber market is under shock pressure. In the medium term, it oscillates within the fundamental valuation range. The supply pressure increases, but there are expectations of Fed rate cuts and "anti - involution" policies [17][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Asphalt - **Market Data**: The asphalt market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in refinery start - up rates and inventory rates. For example, the refinery start - up rate is 39.59%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous period [21]. - **Market Trends**: Refineries are stably resuming production, and the shipment in the north has slowed down. The overall market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [31]. LLDPE - **Market Data**: The LLDPE market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract basis is - 106 [37]. - **Market Trends**: The PE demand is improving, and the supply pressure may be alleviated in the short term. The inventory pressure is not large, and the medium - term trend is an interval shock [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [39]. PP - **Market Data**: The PP market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract basis is - 218 [41]. - **Market Trends**: The short - term demand has improved, but the cost is still weak. The supply pressure will increase in the future, and the long - term trend is under pressure [42]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: The caustic soda market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and the 01 - contract futures price is 2576 [45]. - **Market Trends**: The caustic soda market is in a wide - range shock, and the upward drive is insufficient due to factors such as export and alumina [47]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [49]. Pulp - **Market Data**: The pulp market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the basis of silver star - futures main contract is 654 [53]. - **Market Trends**: The pulp market is oscillating strongly. The futures price rebounds after the short - term decline, and the spot market trading activity improves [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [53]. Glass - **Market Data**: The glass market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract basis is - 91 [57]. - **Market Trends**: The domestic float glass market shows mixed trends, with different trading atmospheres in different regions [57]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [58]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the basis is - 112 [61]. - **Market Trends**: The methanol market is oscillating. The price is affected by factors such as supply pressure and the expectation of fundamental improvement [63][64]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [64]. Urea - **Market Data**: The urea market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract closing price is 1669 [66]. - **Market Trends**: The urea market is oscillating weakly. The inventory has increased, and the short - term is under shock pressure, with a weak trend in the medium term [67][68]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [68]. Styrene - **Market Data**: The styrene market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in spreads. For example, EB - BZ is 1315 [69]. - **Market Trends**: Styrene is strong in the short term and weak in the medium term. The cost center moves down due to factors such as OPEC's production increase [70]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [69]. Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The soda ash market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract basis is - 81 [73]. - **Market Trends**: The domestic soda ash market is in a light and stable shock, with weak downstream demand and a weak price trend [73]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [73]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Data**: The LPG and propylene markets have price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in trading volume and spreads. For example, PG2510's closing price is 4462, up 1.34% [75]. - **Market Trends**: LPG is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the potential supply risk increases. Propylene's supply device fluctuates, and the spot transaction price rises [75]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral trend [79]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract futures price is 4857 [84]. - **Market Trends**: The PVC market is in a low - level shock. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the inventory continues to accumulate [84]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [85]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets have price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in trading volume, spreads, etc. For example, FU2510's closing price is 2827, up 1.36% [87]. - **Market Trends**: Fuel oil has a short - term adjustment trend, and low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weak, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices narrowing again [87]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral trend [87]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Data**: The container shipping index (European line) market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in freight rates and spreads. For example, EC2510's closing price is 1267.4, down 0.42% [89]. - **Market Trends**: The container shipping index (European line) market is in a shock market, and freight rates in European and US - West routes have different degrees of decline [89]. - **No specific trend intensity is mentioned**: No specific trend intensity is provided in the report.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the basic chemical industry is expected to see a slight year-on-year decline in performance for the first half of 2025, but sub-industries such as fluorine chemicals and pesticides are performing well, with fluorine chemicals' net profit attributable to the parent company doubling year-on-year [1] - The phosphate chemical leading enterprises are achieving considerable profits due to upstream resource layout, while the urea industry is expected to improve in prosperity due to limited new supply and potential export opportunities [1] - The pesticide industry is experiencing a recovery in prosperity, with the price of glyphosate continuing to rise, limited new capacity on the supply side, and stable demand [1] Group 2 - In the chemical fiber sector, the new capacity of polyester filament is concentrated in leading enterprises, leading to an increase in industry concentration and a potential recovery in prosperity [1] - Overall, the chemical industry is gradually recovering, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to promote the elimination of backward production capacity and optimize the industry structure [1] - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a sub-sector chemical index (000813), which selects representative securities from sub-industries such as pesticides, fertilizers, coatings, and plastics to reflect the overall performance and development trends of listed companies in China's chemical industry [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, under a neutral fundamental situation, synthetic rubber is expected to be in an interval - running stage, with pressure above and support below. The upper pressure comes from the high - supply pattern of butadiene rubber and increased inventory pressure, as well as relatively high short - term butadiene arrivals. The lower support is due to the long - term "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies, which support the overall valuation of commodities and reduce investors' risk appetite for short - selling. Overall, butadiene rubber is expected to move within an interval, mainly fluctuating with macro - sentiment during the week [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 11,810 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 25,435 lots to 130,504 lots, the open interest decreased by 2,330 lots to 26,614 lots, and the trading volume increased by 144,632 ten - thousand yuan to 770,146 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract increased by 25 to 90, the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 increased by 20 to 20. The prices of North China and East China butadiene (private) remained unchanged, South China butadiene (private) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,700 yuan/ton, Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,900 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) and (model 1712) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,350 yuan/ton and 11,350 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton and 25 yuan/ton to 9,350 yuan/ton and 9,575 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 76.2727%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,285 yuan/ton, and the butadiene rubber profit remained unchanged at - 185 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - As of September 3, 2025, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,950 tons, an increase of 6,950 tons from the previous period. The arrival of imported ships was relatively concentrated during the week, which led to a significant increase in the inventory of sample ports. And some trade volumes were for sale, so inventory changes should be carefully monitored [2]. - As of September 3, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.60%. The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber was sufficient this period. Some private enterprises in Shandong and East China were expected to undergo maintenance, and the raw material market was generally strong, so some traders and downstream buyers followed up. However, the continuous volatile trend of the synthetic rubber futures market still affected the upward movement of the trading center. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [2][3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the energy - chemical sector show different trends. For example, PX is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation with positive spreads; PTA has a slightly upward - trending price with limited downside; MEG is weakly oscillating; rubber and paper pulp are oscillating; synthetic rubber has short - term support; asphalt is strengthened by geopolitical events; LLDPE is short - term weak and medium - term oscillating; PP has long - term pressure; etc. [2][10][11] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: 11 - 01 positive spread, 1 - 5 negative spread. Long PX and short EB. Buy on dips before mid - September. Supply will marginally increase in September, but PX supply - demand remains in a tight - balance due to upcoming PTA new production [5][10]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is slightly upward - trending with limited downside. Partially stop profiting from long PTA and short MEG. Polyester sales are weak, but there is still demand for procurement and restocking [10]. - **MEG**: Unilateral price is weakly oscillating. Reduce short positions. Partially stop profiting from long PTA and short MEG. Hold 1 - 5 negative spread. Supply is expected to increase after October, while demand is weak [11]. Rubber - Rubber is oscillating. Most tire listed companies' revenues increased in H1 2025, but profits declined. In Q3, raw material prices rose, and tire companies' profits were squeezed. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [12][16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is short - term oscillating with support. The upper limit is pressured by high supply and inventory, and the lower limit is supported by anti - involution policies. It mainly fluctuates with macro - sentiment this week [18][20]. Asphalt - Asphalt is strengthened by geopolitical events. The US - Venezuela situation is tense. This week's domestic asphalt production decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [21][31][35]. LLDPE - LLDPE is short - term weak and medium - term oscillating. PE demand is improving due to the approaching peak season for the agricultural film industry. Recently, commodity sentiment has declined, and futures are weak. Supply remains stable in September, and inventory pressure is not significant [36][37]. PP - PP is short - term oscillating and long - term pressured. Short - term demand has improved, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase as maintenance devices resume production and new capacity comes online [40][41]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is widely oscillating. The main obstacle to price increase is export. Domestic demand is stable, and non - aluminum demand may improve in the peak season. The key lies in the production start - up rhythm in Guangxi [44][46]. Pulp - Pulp is oscillating. The pulp market showed a mild recovery yesterday. The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and port inventory is high. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and downstream price increases [50][53]. Glass - Glass original sheet prices are stable. The short - term supply - demand situation has little change, and the mid - and downstream maintain a rigid procurement rhythm [55][56]. Methanol - Methanol is short - term rebounding and medium - term oscillating. The short - term is supported by the September 3rd parade event. The mid - term will return to the fundamental trading logic. Port inventory is high, but the price downside is limited [58][61][62]. Urea - Urea is short - term rebounding and medium - term pressured. It may be strengthened by macro - sentiment in the short term, but it is under pressure due to high inventory and high premium in the medium term [64][65][66]. Styrene - Styrene is medium - term bearish. After the end of anti - involution speculation, the long - short contradiction is accumulating. The industry still has high expectations for the peak season, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak [67][68]. Soda Ash - Soda ash spot market has little change. The domestic market is weakening, with a decline in comprehensive production and sluggish downstream demand [69][71]. LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Macro risks are increasing, and crude oil costs are rising. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as CP paper prices and device maintenance [74][79]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are supported, but there is a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to factors such as the spread with futures and device maintenance [74]. PVC - PVC is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The "alkali - chlorine compensation" model reduces the motivation for production reduction [82]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It turned down at night and may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [84]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fluctuations intensify, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the overseas market has risen significantly [84]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is widely oscillating. Freight rates show different trends, and the supply of shipping capacity also has corresponding changes [86].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of methanol is 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook. The short - term view is that methanol may have a rebound, and the medium - term outlook is a震荡格局 (oscillating pattern). [5] 2. Report's Core View - The methanol market shows a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillating pattern. Short - term is influenced by macro events like the September 3rd parade, while medium - term the market will return to fundamental trading logic. The short - term fundamental contradictions are significant, with high port inventories and potential support from policies. [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,372 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,378 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The trading volume was 466,676 lots, a decrease of 139,335 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 807,495 lots, an increase of 8,187 lots. The basis was - 155, down 19, and the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 160, down 1. [2] - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu ex - tank price dropped from 2,250 yuan/ton to 0; the Inner Mongolia price remained at 2,030 yuan/ton; the Shaanbei price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,020 yuan/ton; the Shandong price stayed at 2,250 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2,143.94, down 0.72. The Taicang spot price was 2,235, up 5, and the Inner Mongolia north - line price was 2,042.5, down 2.5. Among 20 monitored cities, 5 saw price drops of 2.5 - 50 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market showed a differentiated performance, with futures narrowly consolidating, ports having slight increases, and some inland areas with price cuts. [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the short - term, methanol may follow the macro trend and oscillate strongly due to the September 3rd parade event. In the medium - term, it will return to fundamental trading logic as the equity market enters an oscillating pattern. The short - term fundamental contradictions are large, with high port inventories and potential support from policies. Overall, it has a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillating pattern. [4][5]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report date: September 2, 2025 [1] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, PX and asphalt have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; PP, glass, benzene - ethylene, and soda ash have a trend intensity of - 1, suggesting a relatively negative outlook; while most other commodities have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10][21][39][54][66][69] Core Views - The report provides views and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene - ethylene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. The overall market shows a mixed trend with different commodities facing different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand is in a tight - balance. Suggest 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 reverse spread trading, and going long on PX and short on EB. The price has limited downside space, and it's advisable to go long on dips before mid - September. An expected increase in supply in September and new PTA production capacity will keep the supply - demand in a tight - balance [5][10] - **PTA**: The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner with limited downside. The polyester start - up rate is rising, and PTA is in a de - stocking pattern. The basis and spread are supported, but the factory hedging may suppress the price. Focus on the 11 - contract strategy of going long on PTA and short on PX [11] - **MEG**: The price is in a volatile range, and it's not advisable to chase the long side when the price is above 4550. Suggest going long on PTA and short on MEG. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the port is in a stocking pattern. The overall price support is limited [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It will run in a volatile manner. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream demand is average, resulting in a stalemate in supply - demand and price [13][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run in a range following the macro - sentiment in the short term. The supply is high, and the inventory pressure is increasing, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [17][20] Asphalt - The factory inventory is decreasing, and the crude oil price is strong. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have changed, and the basis and spread have also fluctuated. The domestic asphalt production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [21][34] LLDPE - In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile market. The PE demand is improving due to the peak - season stocking of the agricultural film industry, but the commodity sentiment has declined recently, affecting the futures price. The supply pressure may be relieved in the medium term [35][36] PP - In the short term, it will be volatile, and in the medium term, there is still pressure. The short - term demand has improved, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure will increase in the future, but the cost uncertainty and policy factors should also be considered [39][40] Caustic Soda - It will have a wide - range volatile movement. The export is the main factor restricting the price increase, while the domestic demand is stable, and the alumina production may drive the domestic 50 - alkali market. The market pressure will ease after the 09 - contract warehouse receipt cancellation [43][45] Pulp - It will run in a volatile manner. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, with high port inventory and limited downstream procurement. The foreign quotation and cost support limit the downside space [49][52] Glass - The original - sheet price is stable. The futures price has increased, but the spot market is weak, with the main - producing area's price slightly decreasing and the overall trading being average [54][55] Methanol - It will run in a volatile manner. In the short term, the fundamental contradiction is large, with high port inventory and upstream selling pressure. In the medium term, it may enter a range - bound pattern due to policy support [58][61] Urea - It will run in a volatile manner in the short term. The fundamental pressure is large, and the domestic demand is weak, but the policy uncertainty makes the market investment conservative. The price has pressure above 1800 - 1820 yuan/ton, and the downward space is also limited [63][64] Benzene - Ethylene - It is bearish in the medium term. In the short term, it will be volatile. The market is in a situation of long - short confrontation, with the industry expecting the "Golden September and Silver October" season, but the port inventory is increasing, and the fundamental pressure is large [66][67] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The price is slightly declining, the device operation is stable, and the downstream demand is average, mainly purchasing on demand [68][69] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply and demand remain loose, and attention should be paid to cost changes. The CP paper - cargo prices have increased, and there are many domestic device - maintenance plans [72][77] - **Propylene**: The spot price is still supported, but there is a risk of decline. The spread between different regions and contracts has changed, and the start - up rates of related industries have also fluctuated [72] PVC - The price trend is under pressure. The supply is high, the domestic and foreign trade demands are not improved, and the inventory is increasing. The "alkali - chlorine compensation" model reduces the incentive for production reduction [79] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It will have a narrow - range volatile movement with a weak trend. The futures and spot prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts have changed [80][81] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session opened higher, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the foreign market continued to decline [80][81] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It will have a volatile movement. The futures prices of different contracts have changed, and the freight - rate indices of European and US - West routes have shown different trends. The current - period freight rates of different carriers on the European line are also provided [83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, with a neutral fundamental outlook, synthetic rubber is expected to trade within a range, facing both upward pressure and downward support. The upward pressure comes from the high - supply situation of cis - butadiene rubber and increased inventory pressure, as well as the relatively high short - term arrival volume of butadiene. The downward support is due to the medium - to long - term "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies, which support the overall valuation of commodities and reduce investors' risk appetite for short - selling [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber主力 (10 contract), the daily closing price was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 87,677 lots, a decrease of 44,620 lots; the open interest was 35,493 lots, a decrease of 5,585 lots; and the trading volume was 519.883 million yuan, a decrease of 266.886 million yuan. The basis (Shandong cis - butadiene - futures主力) was 50 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan; the monthly spread (BR09 - BR10) was 15 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of private cis - butadiene in North China, East China, and South China decreased by 50 yuan, 50 yuan, and 50 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,950 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) decreased by 100 yuan. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 9,400 yuan and 9,525 yuan respectively, with the Shandong price decreasing by 65 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 76.0112%, remaining unchanged; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 12,285 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; and the cis - butadiene profit was - 185 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [1]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory Information**: As of August 27, 2025, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,700 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [3][4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, synthetic rubber is expected to trade within a range, with the market influenced by factors such as the high - supply pattern of cis - butadiene rubber, butadiene arrival volume, and policy support [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of methanol are under pressure, showing a weak operation. In the medium - term, it is expected to present a volatile pattern. The short - term fundamental contradictions of methanol are significant, with the near - end port inventory continuously and substantially increasing, and there is a risk of tank fullness in South and East China ports. Although the price difference between ports and inland areas is gradually weakening, which may drive the return of port goods to the inland, there is currently no obvious price difference support. In the medium - term, the downward space of methanol is narrowing. The "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies have a certain supporting effect on the overall valuation of commodities, and after the commodity valuation enters a reasonable range, investors' risk preference for shorting may significantly decrease. Overall, the short - term fundamentals of methanol have large contradictions and a downward drive, while in the medium - term, with the marginal improvement of the weak fundamentals, methanol may enter an interval - volatile pattern [4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: The closing price of methanol was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,370 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the trading volume was 419,697 lots, down 41,517 lots; the open interest was 821,019 lots, up 35,186 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,746 tons, down 520 tons; the trading volume was 994.542 million yuan, down 97.621 million yuan. The basis was - 136, up 5; the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 157, down 9 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price in Northern Shaanxi was 2,030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. [Futures Research] - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 27, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1299300 tons, an increase of 223300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 20.75%. This week, the methanol port inventory accelerated and significantly increased. There were 393300 tons of visible foreign vessel discharges during the period. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas of Jiangsu was relatively stable supported by a small amount of reverse flow to the inland, due to the concentrated discharge of foreign vessels, the inventory still increased significantly. In Zhejiang, one olefin plant remained shut down, but other rigid demands were stable, and the inventory continued to increase with the discharge of foreign vessels. The inventory in South China ports continued to increase. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic vessels arrived at the port, and there were still some vessels being unloaded that were not yet included in the inventory. The local and surrounding downstream consumption remained stable, and the inventory also increased. In Fujian, the downstream demand was average, and the inventory continued to increase under the stable supply of imported cargoes [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the fundamentals are under pressure and the market is in a weak operation. In the medium - term, it is expected to be volatile. The short - term fundamental contradictions are large, and the near - end port inventory continues to increase significantly. There is a risk of tank fullness in South and East China ports. Although the price difference between ports and inland areas may drive the return of port goods to the inland, there is currently no obvious price difference support. In the medium - term, the downward space of methanol is narrowing. The "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies have a certain supporting effect on the overall valuation of commodities, and investors' risk preference for shorting may significantly decrease. Overall, the short - term fundamentals have large contradictions and a downward drive, while in the medium - term, with the marginal improvement of the weak fundamentals, methanol may enter an interval - volatile pattern [4][5]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term outlook for urea is to trade sideways, and the medium - term situation depends on policies. The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. Although the fundamental pressure on urea is high and domestic demand transactions are weak, due to potential policy changes, market investment in urea is conservative. In the long - term, the terminal value expectation of the urea 01 contract remains weak, and fundamentals are the long - cycle main contradiction [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. The total new capacity in 2024 was 427 million tons, and the expected new capacity in 2025 is 346 million tons [25]. - **Production**: This week (20250821 - 0827), China's urea production was 1.3492 million tons, a decrease of 0.0119 million tons from the previous period, a 0.87% decrease. Next week, China's urea weekly production is expected to be around 1.28 - 1.29 million tons, a significant decrease from this period [3]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost corresponding to urea currently shows a profit [33][39]. - **Net Import (Export)**: With the adjustment of export policies, subsequent export volumes may increase. The second - batch export quota has been confirmed, and exports in August and September are expected to remain high, but the second - batch export transactions are slow due to price limits [3][45]. 3.2 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. Currently, the northern agricultural top - dressing demand has basically ended, and the year - on - year growth rate of top - dressing demand has declined significantly [3][51][53]. - **Industrial Demand**: - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry currently has high production and sales pressure, low operating rates, and limited demand for urea raw materials, with low acceptance of high - priced urea [3]. - **Melamine**: The melamine industry's production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate are presented in the report, showing certain fluctuations [60][61][62]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand support from the real estate industry for panels is relatively limited, but panel exports show resilience [63]. 3.3 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On August 27, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0858 million tons, an increase of 0.0619 million tons from last week, a 6.05% increase. The total inventory shows an upward trend [69]. - **Port Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025 (Week 35), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous period, a 19.76% increase. The port inventory shows an upward trend [69]. 3.4 Valuation The report presents multiple charts related to urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices (both domestic and international), showing the price trends and spreads of urea in different periods and regions [6][10][16][21]. 3.5 Strategy - **Single - side**: The UR2601 contract will trade sideways in the short - term, with resistance at 1780 - 1800 yuan/ton and support at 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is recommended to short at around 1800 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period Spread**: Reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None is recommended currently [3].