Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The industry fundamentals are expected to remain under pressure in 2024, with most sectors and companies still significantly affected by macroeconomic factors. However, a number of companies are emerging that are successfully navigating the challenges of consumer downgrade by upgrading from categories to quality and then to brand [1][2]. - The report highlights that companies with strong brand attributes are likely to continue outperforming as the market transitions from price-performance to quality-price comparisons [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free sales in Hainan are gradually stabilizing, with the implementation of the Hainan closure policy expected to benefit the duty-free sector. The market is seeing improvements in channel and supply chain capabilities, leading to a stable outlook for profitability [2][49]. - Key companies to watch include China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [2]. 2. Tourism and Gaming - The tourism sector shows strong resilience in demand, becoming a crucial driver for domestic consumption. The recovery in inbound and outbound travel is significant, with a focus on new consumption scenarios and the silver-haired tourism market [2][3]. - Recommended companies include Jiuhua Tourism, Lingnan Holdings, and Sands China [2]. 3. Hotel Industry - The hotel sector is experiencing weak business travel demand, leading to pressure on RevPAR. However, leisure demand remains resilient, and leading companies are enhancing profitability through brand matrix validation and supply chain optimization [3][72]. - Companies to focus on include Huazhu Group, Atour, and Jinjiang Hotels [3]. 4. Restaurant Sector - Leading restaurant companies are demonstrating strong supply chain negotiation and profitability advantages. The overall supply in the restaurant industry is optimizing, with a competitive trend in price-performance [3][7]. - Notable companies include Mixue Ice City, KFC, and Haidilao [3][7]. 5. Cosmetics and Medical Aesthetics - The cosmetics sector is seeing a shift in focus towards profitability, with companies restructuring their product and channel strategies. High-growth companies are expected to achieve both revenue and profit increases [7][23]. - Key players include Juzhibio, Shumei, and Marubi [7][23]. 6. General Retail - The retail sector is undergoing digital upgrades and operational adjustments, with a focus on essential demand and cash flow stability. Companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Multi-Point Intelligence are recommended [8][30]. - The report also highlights the ongoing challenges in the jewelry sector due to rising gold prices [8][30]. 7. Overall Market Performance - The consumer services sector is expected to face challenges, with a projected performance of -8.70% in 2024. However, the beauty and personal care sector is anticipated to recover with a growth of +8.15% in 2025 [11][19].

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is responding positively to the upcoming full closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port, with Hainan Development's major shareholder announcing a share buyback plan, reflecting confidence in the long-term value of the company and the benefits of the free trade policies [1][2]. Group 1: Share Buyback Plan - Hainan Development's major shareholder, Hainan Provincial Development Holding Co., plans to buy back shares worth between 100 million and 200 million yuan, representing up to 2% of the total share capital over the next six months [1]. - The buyback is seen as a strong endorsement of the company's current value and a demonstration of the shareholder's confidence in the ongoing release of policy dividends from the Hainan Free Trade Port [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - Hainan Holding's buyback plan aligns with national policies encouraging state-owned enterprises to increase share repurchases to stabilize market expectations and support high-quality development [2]. - The funding for the buyback will come entirely from the company's own resources, highlighting the deep recognition of the long-term value of Hainan-listed companies by state-owned capital [2]. Group 3: Market Potential - The duty-free market in Hainan is expected to grow significantly, with sales projected to exceed 60 billion yuan by 2027, becoming a key driver of economic growth in the region [2]. - Hainan Development is positioned as a platform for the injection of duty-free assets, which is anticipated to provide historical development opportunities as the company aims to capitalize on the policy benefits of the free trade port [2][4]. Group 4: Long-term Confidence - Despite facing short-term operational pressures due to macroeconomic conditions and industry competition, the buyback action serves as a reassuring signal to the market, indicating strong confidence in the company's long-term value [3]. - The integration of duty-free assets is crucial for Hainan Development's strategic transformation, and the buyback is expected to boost confidence among all shareholders, particularly minority shareholders [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The overall consumption in China shows steady growth, with specific segments like national subsidy products and service consumption continuing to perform well [2][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - During the Labor Day holiday in 2025, key retail and catering enterprises in China reported a sales increase of 6.3% compared to the same period last year, although this represents a slight decline from the 6.8% growth seen in 2024 [2]. - The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment saw significant year-on-year growth of 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% respectively during the holiday [2]. - The restaurant sector also performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in sales for monitored catering enterprises [2]. Group 2: Service Consumption - Travel orders during the Labor Day holiday increased by 30% compared to the same period in 2023, with hotel bookings reaching a historical peak [2]. - Data from Douyin indicated a remarkable growth in accommodation group purchase orders by 79% and hotel scenic area package orders by 116% during the holiday period [2]. Group 3: Inbound and Duty-Free Sales - Inbound tourism spending in Beijing reached 1.13 billion yuan, marking a 48% year-on-year increase [3]. - Shanghai's duty-free sales saw a year-on-year increase of 120%, with the tax refund amount also rising by 130% [3]. Group 4: Duty-Free Shopping Trends - During the Labor Day holiday, duty-free shopping in Hainan amounted to 510 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, but the drop was less severe compared to the 15.9% decline during the Spring Festival [4]. - The average spending per person in duty-free shopping increased by 1.1% compared to the previous year, continuing the upward trend observed during the Spring Festival [4]. Group 5: Structural Highlights in Consumption - The national subsidy policy has expanded its coverage and increased subsidy amounts, leading to significant growth in sales of home appliances and other electronic products [5]. - The demand for investment-grade gold products has risen, alongside a growing preference for well-designed and branded gold jewelry [5]. - Emotional consumption is on the rise, with products based on popular IPs, such as blind boxes and figurines, performing exceptionally well [5].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Province has released a significant policy aimed at boosting consumption, which includes measures to enhance property income channels, support for employee stock ownership plans, and various initiatives to stimulate consumer spending in sectors like automotive and healthcare [1][2][3]. Group 1: Consumption Enhancement Measures - The plan encourages listed companies to promote employee stock ownership plans and strengthens the market value management of state-owned enterprises to stabilize investor return expectations [1][2]. - It proposes to simplify the process for distributing childcare subsidies and encourages local governments to increase support for families with two or three children [1][2]. - The policy aims to expand automotive consumption by relaxing vehicle purchase restrictions and increasing car purchase quotas in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [1][3]. Group 2: Real Estate and Housing Policies - The government will utilize its autonomy in real estate regulation to adjust restrictive measures related to purchasing, transferring, and financing properties, aiming to stabilize the real estate market [3]. - There is a commitment to increase the supply of affordable housing and to support the renovation of old residential areas, with a target of starting renovations on at least 600 old communities by 2025 [3]. Group 3: Technological and Health Consumption - The initiative promotes the integration of artificial intelligence in various consumer sectors, including healthcare and education, and aims to enhance remote medical services [4]. - It supports the development of new consumption models, such as the "old for new" policy for consumer goods, which includes subsidies for replacing old appliances [4]. Group 4: Financial Support for Consumption - The policy encourages financial institutions to increase personal consumption loans while ensuring risk control, allowing for higher loan amounts and extended repayment periods for creditworthy customers [5]. - It also promotes the establishment of duty-free shops and tax refund services to enhance international consumer experiences in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [5]. Group 5: Market Response and Investment Opportunities - Recent data indicates a robust recovery in domestic tourism and spending, with a 6.4% increase in travel and an 8.0% rise in total spending during the holiday period [6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing policy support for consumption will benefit sectors such as dining, travel, and retail, with a focus on service consumption as a key area for future growth [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The tourism volume is increasing while prices remain stable, with an extended travel radius. The focus is on policy support and advancements in AI applications [3] Summary by Sections Market Review - In April, the social service sector outperformed the benchmark by 1.42 percentage points, with strong performance from tourism and education stocks. The A-share scenic spots and leading education stocks led the gains, while Hong Kong stocks in the supply chain and tea beverage sectors also performed well [3][4][6] May Day Holiday Summary - Domestic spending during the holiday increased by 8.0%, with travel willingness remaining high and an extended travel radius. A total of 314 million domestic trips were made, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The average spending per person increased by 1.5%, recovering to 90% of the 2019 level [3][9] Sub-Industries - **Inbound and Outbound Travel**: Inbound travel increased by 28.7% during the holiday, with significant growth in travelers from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and foreign visitors. The number of inbound foreign visitors under visa-free policies grew by 72.7% [3][21] - **Hotel Industry**: The hotel industry saw a REVPAR of 192 yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year, with occupancy rates and average daily rates also increasing. High-star hotels in county areas outperformed the overall industry [24][22] - **Scenic Spots**: Many scenic spots experienced significant visitor growth, aided by favorable weather and local government promotional activities. For example, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism received 51.79% more visitors compared to last year [25][28] - **Dining**: Key monitored dining enterprises saw sales increase by 8.7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [29][30] - **Duty-Free Sales**: Duty-free shopping during the holiday saw a decline of 7% in sales, but the average spending per person remained stable [41][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies benefiting from policy support and marginal improvements, including Tongcheng Travel, Xueda Education, Jiuhua Tourism, and others. Mid-term recommendations include China Duty Free, Meituan, Huazhu Group, and others [3][42]

Group 1: Cloud Industry Insights - The four major North American cloud providers reported a total capital expenditure (capex) of $77.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 62% [1] - Companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft maintained their optimistic capex guidance for 2025, while Meta raised its full-year capex guidance from $60 billion-$65 billion to $64 billion-$72 billion, alleviating market concerns [1] - The report suggests focusing on stocks with strong performance growth and low valuations for Q1 2024 and 2025, quality dividend assets in telecom operators, and sectors like military communication and submarine cables that may see performance and valuation recovery [1] Group 2: Consumer Sector Outlook - The consumer sector is experiencing a recovery, with steady growth in holiday consumption across most provinces and cities, driven by trade-in programs and emotional value consumption [2] - Increased travel willingness and diversified cultural tourism consumption are noted, alongside a boost in inbound tourism due to tax refund policies [2] - The report remains optimistic about the gradual improvement of the consumer sector's fundamentals and the revaluation of leading companies by 2025, supported by consumption stimulus policies [2] Group 3: Aviation Industry Forecast - The aviation industry is expected to see a rise in both volume and price, with increased international flight schedules and domestic demand being stimulated by the "924" policy [3] - The demand for civil aviation travel is anticipated to be further released in 2025, supported by an improved supply-demand balance and favorable oil and exchange rates [3] - The market is expected to open up further for ticket pricing, leading to enhanced profitability for airlines [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Development's controlling shareholder, Hainan Development Holdings, has extended the commitment period for injecting the controlling stake of Global Consumer Goods (Hainan) Trading Co., Ltd. into Hainan Development from May 12, 2025, to May 12, 2028, reflecting considerations for compliance, shareholder interests, and long-term planning for Hainan's duty-free business [1] Group 1: Commitment Adjustment - The adjustment of the commitment period aims to address the current operational data of Global Consumer Goods, which has not yet achieved profitability due to intensified market competition and high supply chain costs [2] - The new plan provides a "performance breakthrough window" of two years for Global Consumer Goods to achieve profitability, thereby solidifying the financial foundation for future asset injection [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Hainan Development Holdings has initiated a series of strategic partnerships, including a joint venture with Hainan Airport Group and a strategic cooperation with Avvolta, to enhance market expansion in Sanya [2] - The construction of the T3 terminal at Sanya Phoenix International Airport is expected to significantly increase passenger throughput, providing substantial commercial value for Global Consumer Goods [2] Group 3: Supply Chain Optimization - Hainan Development is accelerating the establishment of a "global direct procurement + smart warehousing" system, having reached direct procurement agreements with over 30 international brands, resulting in a 15% reduction in procurement costs [3] - The construction of an intelligent warehousing center in Yangpu Free Trade Port Area is expected to enhance inventory turnover by 40% and reduce logistics costs by 25% [3] Group 4: Market Potential and Policy Support - The duty-free business has become a core engine for Hainan Development's transformation into the large consumption sector, with projected sales of Hainan's offshore duty-free operations reaching 47.03 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - Recent policy adjustments have significantly boosted consumer enthusiasm, with the number of visitors to Hainan expected to exceed 97.2 million in 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The optimization of the asset injection commitment is seen as a strategic opportunity for Hainan Development, which aims to create an industrial matrix of "core duty-free business + tourism consumption" [4] - The upcoming full closure of Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to further reduce operational costs for enterprises, enhancing market vitality and attracting more businesses to the duty-free sector [5]

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，据交通运输部，五一假期前三日，全社会跨区域人员流 动总量91524万人次/同比+5.8%。结合携程数据，相较清明假期，五一黄金周游客出行距离呈现显著延 伸：五一期间跨市住宿订单占比已突破80%，连住两日及以上的深度游用户比例预期将达到20%。据国 家移民管理局预测，今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长27%。 其中，受益于入境免签及境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"举措，携程数据显示今年五一入境游订单量 同比去年增长173%。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 五一假期前三日出游人次增长超预期，假期天数增加推动出行半径扩大 山东省：假期前三日，全省重点监测的200家旅游景区累计接待游客1648万人次/同比+7.5%，景区营业 收入合计9亿元/同比+8.1%，人均消费54.6元/同比+0.6%。上海迪士尼乐园：假期前三日，园区客流量 合计30万人次/同比+12.5%。 出入境人次维持高增长，免签政策推动入境游订单大增 据国家移民管理局预测，今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长 27%。其中，受益于入境免签及境 ...

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 60, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests a gradual upward trend supported by recent improvements in market sentiment and policy support [6][10]. Hot Topics Tracking - **Cross-Border Payment**: The People's Bank of China has issued a plan to enhance cross-border financial services, aiming to improve service levels for enterprises going abroad and expand the CIPS network. Related stocks include Cross-Border Communication (002640) and Qingdao Kingking (002094) [7]. - **Virtual Power Plants**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have released guidelines to promote the development of virtual power plants, targeting a national adjustment capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and over 50 million kilowatts by 2030. Related stocks include Guoneng Rixin (301162) and Kehua Data (002335) [7]. - **Duty-Free Theme**: The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have announced measures to optimize the departure tax refund policy, aiming to enhance the supply of refund goods and expand the number of duty-free stores. Related stocks include China Duty Free (601888) and Wangfujing (600859) [7]. Major Capital Inflows and Outflows - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflows include Changshan Beiming (000158.SZ) with a net inflow of 1.036 billion, Ruixin Micro (603893.SH) with 613 million, and Southern Precision (002553.SZ) with 366 million [11]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflows include Leo Group (002131.SZ) with a net outflow of 544 million, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH) with 498 million, and Sanqi Interactive Entertainment (002555.SZ) with 419 million [13]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net short selling include Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) with 16 million, Yili Group (600887.SH) with 837 thousand, and Haiguang Information (688041.SH) with 462 thousand [14]. Industry Overview - The top ten industries with the highest net inflows include SW Computer with 210 million, SW Automotive with 194 million, and SW Machinery Equipment with 189 million [16][17]. - The top ten industries with the highest net outflows include SW Banking with -141 million, SW Non-Bank Financials with -91 million, and SW Basic Chemicals with -155 million [18].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 62, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a positive outlook for the market [6][10]. - Recent policy support and improved market sentiment have led to an upward trend in the market, with historical data showing that a sentiment score below 30 provides support, while above 90 indicates resistance [10]. Theme Tracking - **Cross-Border Payment**: The People's Bank of China has issued a plan to enhance cross-border financial services, aiming to improve service levels for enterprises going abroad. Related stocks include Cross-Border Communication (002640) and Qingdao Jinwang (002094) [7]. - **Virtual Power Plants**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have released guidelines to advance virtual power plant development, targeting a capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and 50 million kilowatts by 2030. Related stocks include Guoneng Rixin (301162) and Kehua Data (002335) [7]. - **Duty-Free Theme**: The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have announced measures to optimize the departure tax refund policy, aiming to enhance inbound consumption. Related stocks include China Duty Free (601888) and Wangfujing (600859) [7]. Market Capital Flow - The report lists the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of funds, with Liou Co., Ltd. (002131) leading at 884.26 million yuan, followed by Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) at 581.87 million yuan [11][12]. - The report also highlights the top ten stocks with the highest net outflow, with Shenghong Technology (300476) showing a net outflow of -389.52 million yuan, followed by Huayin Power (600744) at -387.68 million yuan [13][23]. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into the net inflow and outflow of funds across various industries, indicating that the machinery and home appliance sectors have seen significant net inflows, while the public utilities and food and beverage sectors have experienced notable net outflows [17][18].