Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Yu Liang marks the end of an era for Vanke, transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more cautious and defensive strategy in the real estate industry [4][5][26]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Yu Liang, who took over from Wang Shi in 2017, has been a pivotal figure in Vanke's evolution, emphasizing risk management and financial prudence [4][7]. - His departure signifies a shift in Vanke's leadership style, moving away from the previous model established by Wang Shi [5][26]. - The company no longer requires a successor in the mold of Yu Liang, indicating a new phase in its corporate governance [5]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Yu Liang warned of a transition from a "golden era" to a "silver era" for the real estate market as early as 2014, advocating for a strategic pivot away from traditional residential development [10][11]. - Under his leadership, Vanke initiated a "de-real estate" strategy, diversifying into urban services and logistics, which included the launch of the "Octopus Plan" in 2015 [11][12]. - The company adopted a defensive strategy during the "black iron era," focusing on cash flow and cutting non-core businesses to ensure survival [15][16]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Response - Vanke's stock price faced significant declines, with shares dropping to levels not seen since 2015, reflecting market concerns over its financial health [19]. - The company experienced a substantial increase in bond yields, with some reaching nearly 60%, indicating investor anxiety [19]. - In response to market volatility, Vanke held a rare earnings call to reassure stakeholders of its financial stability and support from local government entities [20]. Group 4: Cost-Cutting Measures - Yu Liang implemented rigorous cost-cutting measures, including a reduction in employee benefits and a focus on minimizing unnecessary expenditures [18][24]. - The company underwent significant asset disposals, including the sale of various projects to streamline operations and improve liquidity [21][22]. - Vanke's internal culture shifted to a more austere environment, emphasizing frugality and efficiency in operations [18][24]. Group 5: Industry Context - The transition from high-leverage growth to a focus on stability and low-profit margins reflects broader trends in the real estate industry, as many firms face similar challenges [26]. - Vanke's evolution under Yu Liang mirrors the industry's shift from rapid expansion to a more cautious approach, emphasizing the need for sustainable practices [26].

岁末年初的金融市场，两件看似无关的事件，勾勒出郑州银行的战略迁徙轨迹： 一边是西棠项目的11亿元房地产贷款迎来胜诉，但面对早已深陷失信名单的被告，债权大概率沦为"纸 面财富"，郑州银行也坦言"早已计提损失"； 另一边是旗下的浚县、鄢陵两家村镇银行相继完成"村改支"，县域布局进一步走向深化。 在退与进之间，这家扎根中原的城商行，似乎正加速从地产依赖的泥沼中抽身，向县域这片抗周期能力 更强的新蓝海，寻找增长动能。 地产旧账 2025年最后一天，郑州中院对郑州银行与金威实业11亿元金融借款案的一审判决，给这场持续数年的纠 纷画上了句号。 依照判决，被告金威实业需在十日内（截至2026年1月10日）偿付本息11亿元，被告河南中光城市运营 管理、永威置业、崔红旗、李伟、李玲玲等对此承担连带清偿责任。 但工商信息显示，金威实业实缴资本为零，曾经的核心资产西棠项目已通过保交楼处置殆尽，无任何可 执行财产，而担保方崔红旗、李伟早已深陷失信名单。 只是拿到了胜诉判决的郑州银行，仍极有可能面临"执行无门"的尴尬。 西棠项目的悲剧，正是郑州银行地产不良的切片之一。 2020年，彼时的郑州房地产市场尚有余温，拥有锅炉厂旧址土地资源的 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 经济加速"去地产化" 报告摘要 海外宏观：全球经济平稳运行。全球制造业温和扩张。美国制造业景气度相对 较高，欧元区表现相对较弱，其中德国对整体欧元区的拖累较大。由于德国汽 车行业相对于中国汽车的优势不断下降，其需求持续降温，且受到美国关税的 冲击，制造业下滑速度较快。美国 11 月就业市场降温。但这一数据尚不能对 美联储的货币政策产生很大影响，也暂时无需担忧美国经济会陷入衰退。美联 储 12 月会议如期降息。我们认为美联储降息周期尚未终止，但未来几个月内 美联储进一步降息的概率较小。未来几个月内美联储内部及美联储主席候选人 的表态将对金融市场造成较大影响。 国内宏观："去地产化"加速。11 月中国经济数据普遍走弱。工业增加值、 消费、固定资产投资等重要数据纷纷下滑。出口表现依然较强。我们认为内需 数据走弱的集中体现在各个领域的"去地产化"。即房地产行业加速下行导致 对经济总体的拖累加大。房地产行业需要更大力度的政策支持，比如加大政府 收储力度以消化库存等手段实现止跌回稳，以遏制整体经济的快速下滑。出口 仍然保持韧性，"去美国化"持续。我们认为明年出口依然是拉动中国经济的 重要动力。 ...

2025.12. 16 本文字数：2861，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 统计局最新数据显示，11月，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个 百分点。同比来看，一线城市中，除上海上涨5.1%外，北京、广州和深圳分别下降2.1%、4.3%和 3.7%。二手房价格则回调更明显，北京、上海、广州和深圳环比分别下降1.3%、0.8%、1.2%和 1.0%，同比则分别下降6.8%、4.6%、7.2%和4.8%。 另从主要经济数据来看，11月尽管新动能对宏观经济拉动作用明显，但多项宏观经济指标延续放缓 态势，社零、房地产等拖累明显。当月，规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，较10月小幅回落0.1 个百分点，为2024年9月以来新低；社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，回落1.6个百分点，连续6 个月放缓。前11个月，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比下降2.6%，降幅比上月扩大0.9个百分 点，增速连续8个月回落。 资金层面，周一银行间市场流动性整体延续宽松态势，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率（DR001）仍 在1.3%以下。当天，央行公开市场转净投放，同时进行买断式逆回购操作 ...

投资增速改善，经济内生企稳 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn 2025-12-08 2、《信用债类 ETF 赎回了吗？》 2025-12-01 3、《信用债类 ETF 大幅净流入》 2025-11-24 证券研究报告/固收事件点评报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 报告摘要 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 对比上月，下游消费品制造业的生产改善，中游设备制造行业的生产整体放缓。医药、 电子设备、纺织、食品等行业工业增加值同比均较上月改善。中游的汽车、交运设备 等工业增加值增速高位回落，11 月同比增速均为 11.9%，分别较上月下滑 4.9pct 和 3.3pct。 绝对增速看，化学原料及制品（6.7%）、交运设备（11.9%）、汽车（11.9%）、电 子设备（9.2%）和通用设备（7.5%）的增速明显高于整体。 服务业生产指数小幅回落。11 月服务业生产指数同比增长 4.2%，增速较上月下降 0.4pct。结构延续上月特征，信息技术、租赁和金融等生产性服务业的景气度高于服 务 ...

Core Insights - The speech by Dr. Xiong Yuan highlighted the macroeconomic trends in China for 2025, predicting a "high first, low second" growth pattern with a projected GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters and a 4.4% growth in the fourth quarter to meet the annual target of "keeping above 5%" [1][2] - The real estate market is currently in a transitional phase, requiring new drivers and models for economic transformation [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand, improving people's livelihoods, and integrating consumption and investment [1] Economic Outlook for 2026 - Six key variables influencing the economic trajectory for 2026 include: resilience of exports, scale of fixed asset investment, consumption scale, PPI and GDP deflator trends, policy implementation pace, and Sino-U.S. trade relations [2] - The policy tone for 2026 is expected to be positive, with predictions of 1-2 instances of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, alongside a fiscal deficit similar to that of 2025 [2] - A-share assets are viewed positively due to economic resilience, policy flexibility, and competitive industries, while the bond market is expected to experience fluctuations with 10-year government bond yields ranging from 1.5% to 1.9% [2] - The economic growth for 2026 is anticipated to remain around 5%, providing ample investment opportunities across various asset classes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The "troika" of consumption, investment, and net - exports supporting GDP is under increasing pressure in October, and short - term economic growth may face certain challenges. However, considering the good economic performance in the first three quarters of this year, it is not difficult to achieve the 5% economic growth target for the year 2025. In the next six months, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be the key support measures. Future supportive policies may be more inclined to stimulate consumption. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption - In October, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 4.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the growth rate has declined for five consecutive months. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous period [2]. - Service consumption showed continuous strength. In October, catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, 2.9 percentage points higher than September. Policies such as "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption" and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" emphasized the expansion of service consumption [2]. - The year - on - year growth rate of most retail sales of categories related to national subsidies continued to slow down. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment above the designated size dropped significantly by 17.9 percentage points to - 14.6% [2]. 3.2 Investment - Fixed - asset investment has been weak for seven consecutive months, with negative year - on - year growth for two consecutive months and accelerating decline. From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment reached their lowest values since 2022, with year - on - year decreases of - 0.1%, + 2.7%, and - 14.7% respectively [2]. - The decline in real estate development investment has been expanding for eight consecutive months, reaching the second - lowest value since 1995, indicating that the traditional "real estate + infrastructure" driven model is unsustainable [2]. 3.3 Foreign Trade - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 37.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [3]. - In October, the year - on - year exports of major industries (in US dollars) declined significantly compared with the previous month. Exports to the EU decreased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9% in October, a significant drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. 3.4 Industrial and Service Sectors - From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year. In October, it increased by 4.9% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth rates, with year - on - year increases of 7.2% and 8.0% respectively in October [3]. - In October, the service production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage points lower than the previous month [3]. 3.5 Economic Outlook and Bond Market - Economic downward pressure may increase. The "troika" supporting the economy is under pressure, and the conditions for further policy rate cuts may have been initially met [3]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in November, predicting that the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to around 1.65% within the year [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Free Trade Group (珠免集团) is accelerating its divestment from real estate by selling 100% of Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. for 5.518 billion yuan, marking a significant step in its transition to focus on duty-free and consumer-oriented businesses [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Transition - The company, formerly known as Gree Real Estate, has shifted its core business from real estate to duty-free operations following an asset swap in November 2024 [1][2] - The divestment of real estate is part of a broader strategy to eliminate losses from a declining real estate market, which has been a financial burden on the company [2][3] - The sale of Gree Real Estate is occurring faster than anticipated, with the company previously indicating a five-year timeline for complete divestment from real estate [1][2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Gree Real Estate reported a significant net loss of 2.3 billion yuan in 2024, with revenues dropping to 580 million yuan in the first nine months of 2025 [2][3] - The real estate segment's poor performance has negatively impacted the overall financial results of Zhuhai Free Trade Group, leading to a net loss of 2.74 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] - Post-sale projections indicate that while total revenue will decline from 5.277 billion yuan to 2.922 billion yuan, the net loss will significantly decrease from over 1.5 billion yuan to 924 million yuan, highlighting the financial benefits of divesting the real estate business [4][5] Group 3: Duty-Free Business Development - The duty-free segment has shown promising growth, contributing 11.31 billion yuan in revenue and 3.91 billion yuan in net profit in the first half of 2025, accounting for over 65% of total revenue [7][8] - The company is optimizing its duty-free operations by enhancing product offerings and expanding into cross-border e-commerce, while also adapting to new policies in the duty-free sector [8] - Despite the growth potential in the duty-free market, challenges remain due to the overall decline in the domestic duty-free industry, as evidenced by the performance of leading competitors [9][10] Group 4: Market Challenges and Strategic Outlook - The transition to the duty-free sector is seen as a response to national policy needs and local market demands, particularly in the Hengqin area [12] - The duty-free industry is characterized by high resource and policy dependence, with significant barriers to entry, making it crucial for the company to leverage its real estate experience in this new sector [12] - The recovery of inbound and outbound travel post-pandemic remains slow, which could impact the growth of the duty-free business [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Duty-Free Group Co., Ltd. (600185.SH) plans to sell 100% equity of Gree Real Estate to Toujie Holdings for approximately 5.518 billion yuan, marking a significant asset restructuring and related party transaction [1][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction price will be paid in cash by Toujie Holdings, a state-owned enterprise under Zhuhai Investment Holdings, which focuses on corporate headquarters management, investment activities, and asset management services [1][3]. - The transaction is part of a broader strategy to accelerate the company's exit from real estate operations and focus on duty-free and consumer-related businesses [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Following the transaction, the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected to improve from a loss of 1.515 billion yuan to a loss of 92.4 million yuan, a change of 93.90% [4][5]. - The company's operating revenue is expected to decrease from 5.277 billion yuan to 2.922 billion yuan, a decline of 44.62% for 2024 [5]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share are anticipated to improve significantly from -0.99 yuan to -0.28 yuan, reflecting a 71.72% increase [5]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - The company aims to enhance its focus on duty-free business, expand cross-border e-commerce, and improve compliance and governance structures [6]. - The restructuring is expected to strengthen the company's competitive advantages and enhance its sustainable development capabilities [2][4]. - The company plans to optimize its financial structure and restore cash dividend capabilities, aiming for long-term stable growth in shareholder returns [4][6]. Group 4: Market Position - As of November 18, the company's stock price was 7.47 yuan, with a market capitalization of 14.1 billion yuan [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the revenue composition showed that duty-free goods accounted for 61.4%, real estate for 24.43%, and other businesses for 12.4% [7].

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Free Trade Group (珠免集团) is executing a strategic shift from real estate to a focus on duty-free and consumer services through the sale of its real estate assets, specifically the 100% stake in Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. for a transaction value of 5.518 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 1 - The company plans to transfer its real estate assets to Zhuhai Investment Holdings Co., Ltd. as part of its established restructuring path [1]. - The asset sale is a continuation of the company's strategy to divest from real estate and transition towards a consumer-centric business model by the end of 2024 [1][2]. - Following the transaction, Gree Real Estate will be excluded from the consolidated financial statements, marking a complete exit from the real estate sector [1]. Group 2 - The transaction is expected to improve the company's financial performance by enhancing profitability and operational efficiency, as the real estate segment has been a burden due to high capital demands and debt levels [2]. - The financial adjustments will lead to a reduction in total assets and revenue, but will significantly improve profitability metrics and earnings per share, as well as repair the capital structure and cash flow situation [2]. - This strategic shift is aimed at aligning the company's operations with a "light asset, strong operation" model, which is more suitable for the consumer services sector [2].