证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 ——2025 年 10 月经济数据点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com "三驾马车"承压，主要经济指标走弱 核心观点：从 10 月数据上看，支撑 GDP 的"三驾马车"消费、投资和净出口压力 增大，短期经济增长或面临一定的挑战，考虑到今年前三季度经济表现较好，完成 25 年总量+5%的经济增长目标压力不大。10 月社零同比+2.9%，增速连续五个月回 落。10 月进出口总值同比较上月大幅下滑，出口同比-0.8%，较上月-9.2pct，对欧 盟出口较上月大幅下降 13.3pct。1-10 月固投完成额负增长（yoy-1.7%）、基建（不 含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，下同）累计同比亦负增长（yoy-0.1%）与 房地产开发投资持续探底（yoy-14.7%）凸显传统增长模式乏力。未来半年政策利 率下调与增量工具落地或成关键支撑 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Free Trade Group (珠免集团) is accelerating its divestment from real estate by selling 100% of Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. for 5.518 billion yuan, marking a significant step in its transition to focus on duty-free and consumer-oriented businesses [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Transition - The company, formerly known as Gree Real Estate, has shifted its core business from real estate to duty-free operations following an asset swap in November 2024 [1][2] - The divestment of real estate is part of a broader strategy to eliminate losses from a declining real estate market, which has been a financial burden on the company [2][3] - The sale of Gree Real Estate is occurring faster than anticipated, with the company previously indicating a five-year timeline for complete divestment from real estate [1][2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Gree Real Estate reported a significant net loss of 2.3 billion yuan in 2024, with revenues dropping to 580 million yuan in the first nine months of 2025 [2][3] - The real estate segment's poor performance has negatively impacted the overall financial results of Zhuhai Free Trade Group, leading to a net loss of 2.74 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] - Post-sale projections indicate that while total revenue will decline from 5.277 billion yuan to 2.922 billion yuan, the net loss will significantly decrease from over 1.5 billion yuan to 924 million yuan, highlighting the financial benefits of divesting the real estate business [4][5] Group 3: Duty-Free Business Development - The duty-free segment has shown promising growth, contributing 11.31 billion yuan in revenue and 3.91 billion yuan in net profit in the first half of 2025, accounting for over 65% of total revenue [7][8] - The company is optimizing its duty-free operations by enhancing product offerings and expanding into cross-border e-commerce, while also adapting to new policies in the duty-free sector [8] - Despite the growth potential in the duty-free market, challenges remain due to the overall decline in the domestic duty-free industry, as evidenced by the performance of leading competitors [9][10] Group 4: Market Challenges and Strategic Outlook - The transition to the duty-free sector is seen as a response to national policy needs and local market demands, particularly in the Hengqin area [12] - The duty-free industry is characterized by high resource and policy dependence, with significant barriers to entry, making it crucial for the company to leverage its real estate experience in this new sector [12] - The recovery of inbound and outbound travel post-pandemic remains slow, which could impact the growth of the duty-free business [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Duty-Free Group Co., Ltd. (600185.SH) plans to sell 100% equity of Gree Real Estate to Toujie Holdings for approximately 5.518 billion yuan, marking a significant asset restructuring and related party transaction [1][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction price will be paid in cash by Toujie Holdings, a state-owned enterprise under Zhuhai Investment Holdings, which focuses on corporate headquarters management, investment activities, and asset management services [1][3]. - The transaction is part of a broader strategy to accelerate the company's exit from real estate operations and focus on duty-free and consumer-related businesses [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Following the transaction, the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected to improve from a loss of 1.515 billion yuan to a loss of 92.4 million yuan, a change of 93.90% [4][5]. - The company's operating revenue is expected to decrease from 5.277 billion yuan to 2.922 billion yuan, a decline of 44.62% for 2024 [5]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share are anticipated to improve significantly from -0.99 yuan to -0.28 yuan, reflecting a 71.72% increase [5]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - The company aims to enhance its focus on duty-free business, expand cross-border e-commerce, and improve compliance and governance structures [6]. - The restructuring is expected to strengthen the company's competitive advantages and enhance its sustainable development capabilities [2][4]. - The company plans to optimize its financial structure and restore cash dividend capabilities, aiming for long-term stable growth in shareholder returns [4][6]. Group 4: Market Position - As of November 18, the company's stock price was 7.47 yuan, with a market capitalization of 14.1 billion yuan [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the revenue composition showed that duty-free goods accounted for 61.4%, real estate for 24.43%, and other businesses for 12.4% [7].

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Free Trade Group (珠免集团) is executing a strategic shift from real estate to a focus on duty-free and consumer services through the sale of its real estate assets, specifically the 100% stake in Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. for a transaction value of 5.518 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 1 - The company plans to transfer its real estate assets to Zhuhai Investment Holdings Co., Ltd. as part of its established restructuring path [1]. - The asset sale is a continuation of the company's strategy to divest from real estate and transition towards a consumer-centric business model by the end of 2024 [1][2]. - Following the transaction, Gree Real Estate will be excluded from the consolidated financial statements, marking a complete exit from the real estate sector [1]. Group 2 - The transaction is expected to improve the company's financial performance by enhancing profitability and operational efficiency, as the real estate segment has been a burden due to high capital demands and debt levels [2]. - The financial adjustments will lead to a reduction in total assets and revenue, but will significantly improve profitability metrics and earnings per share, as well as repair the capital structure and cash flow situation [2]. - This strategic shift is aimed at aligning the company's operations with a "light asset, strong operation" model, which is more suitable for the consumer services sector [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhuhai免集团 plans to sell 100% equity of Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. to Zhuhai Toujie Holdings Co., Ltd. for 5.518 billion yuan, accelerating its divestment from real estate and focusing on the duty-free business as its core consumer segment [1][3] - Following the transaction, the company aims to enhance its focus on the duty-free business, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale consumer operations [1][3] - The financial indicators before and after the transaction show projected revenues of 1.442 billion yuan and net profits of 272 million yuan for the first seven months of 2025, and revenues of 2.922 billion yuan with net profits of 295 million yuan for the year 2024 [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Duty-Free Group is executing a significant asset sale to divest from real estate, focusing on its core duty-free business, marking a substantial shift in its business strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Sale and Strategic Shift - The company plans to sell 100% equity of Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. for 5.518 billion yuan, indicating a concrete step in its de-real estate strategy [1]. - This asset sale is part of a broader restructuring plan, aiming to transition from real estate to a focus on large consumer sectors by the end of 2024 [2]. - Following the transaction, Gree Real Estate will be excluded from the consolidated financial statements, signifying a complete exit from the real estate sector [2]. Group 2: Financial Structure and Risk Optimization - The divested asset, Gree Real Estate, is characterized by high capital demands and significant liabilities, which have negatively impacted the company's financial performance [3]. - The company aims to improve its profitability, capital structure, and risk exposure by reducing asset scale, transitioning to a "light asset, strong operation" model more suited to the consumer business [3]. - This strategic shift is expected to enhance the company's focus on profitability and cash flow, laying the groundwork for future cash dividend capabilities [3]. Group 3: Market Opportunities and Policy Support - The company is poised to capitalize on external opportunities in the duty-free sector, especially following recent favorable policies aimed at boosting consumption [4]. - With over 70 million inbound tourists in Guangdong province and significant cross-border traffic, the company is strategically positioned to meet the demand for new product categories in the duty-free market [4]. - The company aims to establish a strong presence in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, focusing on duty-free operations to drive growth and improve customer experience [4].

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Free Trade Group (600185.SH) plans to sell 100% equity of Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. to Zhuhai Toujie Holdings Co., Ltd. for 5.518 billion yuan, aiming to accelerate its complete divestment from real estate and focus on the duty-free business as its core consumer segment [1] Financial Summary - Before the transaction, the projected revenue for the period from January to July 2025 is 1.442 billion yuan, with a net profit of 272 million yuan [1] - For the fiscal year 2024, the expected revenue is 2.922 billion yuan, with a net profit of 295 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Free Trade Group (600185.SH) plans to transfer 100% equity of Gree Real Estate to Tuo Jie Holdings for a transaction price of 5.518 billion yuan, aiming to accelerate its complete divestment from real estate and focus on its core duty-free business in the consumer sector [1] Group 1 - The company is shifting its main business focus from real estate to a consumer business centered around duty-free operations [1] - The transaction price for the equity transfer is set at 5.518 billion yuan [1] - This move is part of the company's strategy to establish itself as a major player in the consumer industry, targeting the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and expanding nationally and internationally [1] Group 2 - The company aims to enter a new phase of high-quality development by fully committing to its consumer strategy [1] - The divestment from real estate is expected to enhance the company's operational focus and efficiency [1] - The company is positioning itself to build a comprehensive consumer industry group [1]

珠免集团（600185）(600185.SH)发布公告，上市公司拟向投捷控股转让其持有的格力房产100%股权， 交易价格55.18亿元。本次交易前，上市公司主营业务为以免税为核心的大消费业务及房地产业务等。 通过本次交易，上市公司将加快完成全面去地产化，更加聚焦于以免税业务为核心的大消费业务。未 来，上市公司将锚定大消费战略主航道，全力打造立足粤港澳、辐射全国、面向国际的大消费产业集 团，迈入高质量发展新阶段。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to divest its 100% stake in Gree Real Estate to Tuo Jie Holdings for a transaction price of 5.518 billion yuan, aiming to accelerate its complete exit from the real estate sector and refocus on its core duty-free business in the large consumption sector [1] Group 1 - The transaction price for the divestment is set at 5.518 billion yuan [1] - This move is part of the company's strategy to fully divest from real estate [1] - The company intends to concentrate more on its duty-free business, which is a key area of growth [1]