Summary of the Conference Call on Steel Industry - July 2025 Industry Overview - The steel industry is currently experiencing a lackluster demand environment in Europe, despite some supportive trade measures and potential increases in defense and infrastructure spending [9][10] - The demand for carbon steel is expected to remain weak, with no clear signs of recovery anticipated in 2025 [9][10] - Stainless steel demand is also expected to lag behind carbon steel due to its later-cycle nature, with no inflection predicted for 2025 [9][10] Key Insights - **Demand Conditions**: Demand conditions in Europe are weak, leading to a continued erosion of EU Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) spreads, which have fallen below historical averages [9][10] - **Equity Ratings**: Steel equities have seen a sharp re-rating, with shares outpacing fundamentals, particularly for companies like thyssenkrupp and Salzgitter, which diminishes their risk-reward appeal [9][10] - **Preferred Companies**: - **Carbon Steel**: voestalpine is favored due to its resilient EBITDA/t and manageable decarbonization investments [10] - **Stainless Steel**: Acerinox is preferred for its strong earnings profile supported by US exposure and high-margin alloys business [11] Financial Performance - The steel sector is trading at approximately a 34% discount to its historical average on EV/normalized EBITDA, but consensus earnings downgrades for 2025 are anticipated [9][10] - Companies like thyssenkrupp have seen their shares double year-to-date, but the valuation appears stretched with a 20-30% premium to their sum-of-the-parts (SotP) valuation [10] Market Dynamics - **Construction and Automotive Demand**: These sectors are identified as key demand drivers for steel, but current indicators suggest a slowdown in growth [21][22] - **Global Steel Production**: The center of gravity for global steel production is shifting towards Asia, with significant production expected from China [19][27] Trade and Inventory Insights - EU steel imports are heavily influenced by countries like Turkey, South Korea, and China, with specific quotas set for various products [81][87] - Steel inventories across the value chain are being monitored, with US steel inventory indexed to January 2019 showing fluctuations [71] Economic Indicators - The construction confidence indicator in the EU has shown a decline, reflecting lower confidence in the sector [38] - In China, cement production growth has been negative, indicating potential challenges in construction-related steel demand [43] Conclusion - The steel industry is currently in a phase of waiting for a demand inflection, with key indicators suggesting continued weakness in both carbon and stainless steel markets. The focus remains on managing costs and navigating the challenging demand landscape while identifying potential investment opportunities in resilient companies like voestalpine and Acerinox [9][10][11]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is primarily driven by southbound funds and passive investments, with significant increases in trading volume but no notable changes in active allocation ratios, indicating that long-term foreign capital has not significantly entered the market [1][4] - The market is experiencing a structural rally with rapid sector rotation, necessitating investor attention to specific sectors and industry dynamics [1][5] - The phenomenon of AH premium narrowing has been observed, with some companies trading at higher prices in Hong Kong than in A-shares, attributed to alignment with industrial development trends and foreign capital preferences [1][8] Key Points and Arguments - **Liquidity as a Dominant Factor**: The primary driver of the recent market activity has been liquidity rather than fundamentals, with a significant influx of southbound funds [2][10] - **Structural Market Characteristics**: The market has shown a high level of structural activity, with different sectors taking turns as hotspots, leading to a disparity between index returns and actual investment returns [5][6] - **Investment Opportunities**: The ongoing influx of southbound funds, which accounted for 8.2 trillion RMB this year, has positioned them as a dominant force in the market, particularly in ETFs and trading funds [10][11] - **Future Market Outlook**: The Chinese market is expected to continue facing a "money surplus but lack of quality assets" situation, which will sustain structural market trends [11][12] - **IPO and Placement Dynamics**: The balance of supply and demand in the market is expected to remain stable, with estimated IPO and placement absorption power around 3 trillion RMB, matching the supply from southbound funds and foreign capital [13][14] Important but Overlooked Content - **Sector-Specific Insights**: The electric equipment industry is expected to benefit significantly from the Yaxia Hydropower Station project, which has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion RMB, catalyzing long-term growth in related sectors [3][40] - **Impact of Policies on Industries**: The "anti-involution" policy is influencing the basic materials sector by reducing production capacity, which may benefit long-term industry development despite short-term profitability pressures [25][26] - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Investors are advised to position themselves during market lows rather than chasing highs, focusing on structural opportunities rather than overall index performance [18][19] Conclusion - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by a liquidity-driven structural rally, with significant implications for various sectors, particularly in the context of ongoing policy changes and macroeconomic conditions. Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach that emphasizes sector rotation and specific investment opportunities while being mindful of the broader market dynamics.

Company Overview - Metallus Inc. is a manufacturer of high-performance specialty metals from recycled scrap metal, serving various end-markets including industrial, automotive, aerospace & defense, and energy [3] - The company is recognized as a premier U.S. producer of alloy steel bars (up to 16 inches in diameter), seamless mechanical tubing, and manufactured components [3] - Metallus has over 100 years of experience in producing high-quality steel and employs approximately 1,880 people [3] - The company reported sales of $1.1 billion in 2024 [3] Government Commitment and Legislative Impact - Vice President Vance emphasized the federal government's commitment to investing in American workers and businesses, particularly through the "One Big Beautiful Bill" [2] - The bill includes significant financial benefits for individuals and families, notably the elimination of taxes on overtime pay [1] - The administration aims to support American workers and small to mid-sized manufacturers through policies and investments that enhance competitiveness and sustainability [2] Role in National Defense - Metallus plays a vital role in supporting national defense, particularly through its investment in a new bloom reheat furnace and contributions to increased artillery shell production for the Army [1] - The visit from Vice President Vance highlighted the critical importance of domestic steel production, reinforcing the company's significance in the defense sector [3]

Financial Performance - Nucor Corporation reported consolidated net earnings of $603 million, or $2.60 per diluted share, for Q2 2025, compared to $156 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, in Q1 2025, and $645 million, or $2.68 per diluted share, in Q2 2024 [1][8] - For the first six months of 2025, consolidated net earnings were $759 million, or $3.26 per diluted share, down from $1.49 billion, or $6.14 per diluted share, in the same period of 2024 [2] Segment Performance - Earnings before income taxes for the steel mills segment were $843 million in Q2 2025, up from $645 million in Q2 2024, while the steel products segment earned $392 million, down from $442 million [4] - The raw materials segment reported earnings of $57 million in Q2 2025, compared to $39 million in Q2 2024 [4] Sales and Shipments - Consolidated net sales increased by 8% to $8.46 billion in Q2 2025 from $7.83 billion in Q1 2025, and by 5% from $8.08 billion in Q2 2024 [5] - Approximately 6,820,000 tons were shipped to outside customers in Q2 2025, an 8% increase compared to Q2 2024 [5][6] Cost and Pricing - The average sales price per ton in Q2 2025 increased by 8% compared to Q1 2025 but decreased by 3% compared to Q2 2024 [5] - The average scrap and scrap substitute cost per gross ton used in Q2 2025 was $403, a 2% increase from $394 in Q1 2025 [7] Operational Efficiency - Overall operating rates at Nucor's steel mills increased to 85% in Q2 2025, up from 80% in Q1 2025 and 75% in Q2 2024 [11] - The company set a safety record in the first half of 2025 while achieving sequential earnings growth across all reporting segments [3] Financial Strength - Nucor had $2.48 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q2 2025, with a $2.25 billion revolving credit facility remaining undrawn [12] - The company maintains strong credit ratings in the North American steel sector [12] Shareholder Returns - During Q2 2025, Nucor repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares at an average price of $111.89 per share, with $606 million remaining authorized for future repurchases [13] - A cash dividend of $0.55 per share was declared, marking the 209th consecutive quarterly cash dividend [14] Future Outlook - Earnings in Q3 2025 are expected to be nominally lower than in Q2 2025, primarily due to anticipated margin compression in the steel mills segment [16]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3597.94 points, up 0.12% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44% to 11217.58 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.96% to 2362.60 points [2] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17.423 trillion yuan, a decrease of 45 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday [2] PCB Sector Performance - The AI hardware sector, represented by PCB (Printed Circuit Board) concepts, led the market with significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - Notable performers included Fangbang Shares, Junya Technology, and Pengding Holdings, with Shenghong Technology surging over 17% [3] - At least 10 PCB companies have released half-year performance forecasts, with Shengyi Electronics expecting a net profit increase of 432% year-on-year [3] - The demand for high-end PCBs is rapidly growing due to AI computing needs, with projections indicating a supply-demand gap for AI PCBs by 2026 [3] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector, including brokerage and insurance, performed well, with the Shenwan Securities Index rising by 0.68% [4] - Major brokerages like Zhongyin Securities and Huatai Securities saw significant stock price increases, with at least 12 brokerages forecasting over 100% growth in net profit for the first half of the year [4][5] - The insurance sector benefited from economic recovery, with a notable increase in the sales of savings-type products [5] Resource Sector Dynamics - The resource sector experienced significant divergence, with coal, steel, and oil sectors undergoing substantial corrections [6] - Futures markets saw sharp declines in black and new energy commodities, with major contracts for coking coal and lithium carbonate hitting the daily limit down [6] - Several brokerages have warned of trading risks in the resource sector, suggesting that the recent price surges were driven by policy expectations and market sentiment [6] Investment Themes - In the medium to long term, institutions suggest focusing on undervalued sectors within the "anti-involution" theme, including polyurethane, LED, and semiconductor precursor materials [7] - The "anti-involution" theme has begun to expand, with specific commodities like red dates experiencing price fluctuations [7]

President's been making some comments in this bilateral. He's covered the Fed and rates. He's covered China, uh, Gaza and Russia.And now some comments on aluminum and steel. Take a listen. World.For the world, what percent will that be. I would say it'll be somewhere in the 15 to 20% range. So maybe 15 or 20 or No, I said, you know, I sort of know, but I just want to be nice. I would say in the range of 15 to 20%.UK probably one of those two numbers for UK steel aluminum makers here are worried about. Would ...

Group 1 - Nucor Corporation is set to release its second-quarter earnings results on July 28, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.70 per share, an increase from $2.68 per share in the same period last year [1] - The projected quarterly revenue for Nucor is $8.48 billion, compared to $8.08 billion a year earlier [1] - On June 18, Nucor indicated expected earnings between $2.55 and $2.65 per share for the quarter ending July 5 [2] Group 2 - Nucor shares increased by 3.1%, closing at $145.83 on the last trading day [2] - Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos De Alba maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $134 to $149 [4] - UBS analyst Curt Woodworth maintained a Buy rating but reduced the price target from $153 to $147 [4]

Core Insights - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) has seen a stock increase of 57% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which rose by 4% [2] - The company reported an adjusted earnings loss of –$0.50 per share in Q2 2025, better than the expected –$0.71, with record steel shipments of 4.3 million net tons [3] - The recent increase in U.S. steel tariffs to 50% has positively impacted investor sentiment, as CLF is expected to benefit from stronger domestic pricing [3] Stock Performance - CLF's stock fell over 54% from July 2024 to May 2025 due to declining steel demand, weak pricing, increasing losses, and rising debt [4] - The stock has begun to recover following this decline, indicating a potential turnaround [4] Financial Metrics - The price-to-sales (PS) multiple for Cleveland-Cliffs has decreased from 1.0x in 2020 to 0.2x in 2024, suggesting potential for upward movement compared to historical levels [5] - In Q2, CLF generated revenues of $4.9 billion and returned to a positive adjusted EBITDA of $97 million, a $271 million increase from Q1 [6] - The company achieved a $15 per ton reduction in steel unit costs quarter over quarter and ended the quarter with $2.7 billion in liquidity [6] Future Outlook - CLF has reaffirmed a target of $50 per ton for cost reductions in 2025, indicating ongoing improvements in operational efficiency [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a total sales volume of 55,500 tons, an increase of approximately 10% compared to the same quarter last year [13] - Revenue from operations reached ₹4.33 crores, up by 5% year-over-year, although mitigated by declining prices [13] - EBITDA per ton was reported at ₹7,077, a decrease of 18% primarily due to an inventory valuation loss of ₹6 crores and a production shutdown of 10 to 12 days [13][14] - Profit After Tax (PAT) stood at ₹20 crores, down from ₹26 crores in the corresponding quarter last year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has successfully stabilized its operations and maintained volume targets despite pricing pressures [3] - Margins are under pressure due to ongoing price cuts, with EBITDA per ton at the lower end of the range [4] - The company is implementing cost control measures effectively, contributing to operational stability [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing pricing pressure due to competition from larger players in the market [26] - Sales have increased, indicating the company is managing to maintain its market position despite external pressures [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its operations with the commissioning of a new steel plant expected by July 2029 [18] - A new forging line is being developed in collaboration with IT, targeting specialized products with minimal competition in India [10][11] - The company aims to maintain a conservative balance sheet with a target debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5:1 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future margins, citing several factors that could improve EBITDA per ton, including the commissioning of a solar plant and a new reheating furnace [30] - The management believes that the current pricing pressure is unlikely to worsen, with expectations for gradual improvement in the market [39] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from government initiatives favoring green steel production, with a significantly lower carbon footprint than competitors [95][96] Other Important Information - The solar plant is nearing completion, with commissioning expected by August due to minor legal delays [100] - The company has become debt-free following recent equity infusions, which have been used to repay existing debts [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: When will the new plant be completed and what is the expected return on capital? - The new plant is expected to start by July 29, with full capacity utilization targeted within two to three years, aiming for a return on capital of around 20% [17][19] Question: What is the current pricing pressure and how does it affect volume growth? - The company has entered into pricing agreements with key OEMs to mitigate pricing pressure, expecting volume growth of 5-10% until the new plant is commissioned [26][28] Question: What is the update on the forging line and its expected capacity? - The forging line will cater to the automotive sector with an initial capacity of 12,000 to 15,000 tons per year, with no direct competition anticipated [111] Question: How does the company plan to grow over the next few years? - The company plans to utilize existing capacities and expand through the commissioning of new facilities, with a target of 225,000 tons for the current financial year [69][78] Question: What is the expected EBITDA per ton for the current financial year? - The company expects EBITDA per ton to remain in the range of ₹7,000 to ₹10,000 for the current financial year, with hopes to increase this range in the following year [126]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a total sales volume of 55,500 tons, an increase of approximately 10% compared to the same quarter last year [15] - Revenue from operations reached ₹4.33 crores, up by 5% year-over-year, although mitigated by declining prices [15] - EBITDA per ton was reported at ₹7,077, a decrease of 18% primarily due to an inventory valuation loss of ₹6 crores and a production shutdown of 10 to 12 days [15][16] - Profit After Tax (PAT) stood at ₹20 crores, down from ₹26 crores in the corresponding quarter last year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has successfully stabilized its operations and implemented cost controls, although margins are under pressure due to price cuts [5][6] - The new heating furnace is expected to be commissioned in the last quarter of the year, which will enhance production capacity [7] - The greenfield steel plant is on track for commissioning by July 29, with significant equity investment already secured [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing pricing pressure due to competition from larger players in the market, but has managed to maintain sales volumes [26] - The company has entered into pricing agreements with key Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to mitigate pricing pressures [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on green steel production and sustainability, aiming to be a leader in this area as government regulations evolve [41][72] - A new forging line is being developed in collaboration with IT, targeting the automotive sector, with plans for a capacity of 12,000 to 15,000 tons per year [86] - The company aims to maintain a conservative balance sheet with a target debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5:1 [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future margins improving due to several factors, including the commissioning of the solar plant and new reheating furnace [30] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in pricing and demand, particularly in the green steel segment, which is expected to enhance margins [38][72] - Management highlighted the importance of government initiatives supporting green steel and the potential for increased business as these regulations take effect [72][74] Other Important Information - The solar plant is ready but has faced delays due to legal issues regarding transmission lines, with hopes for resolution by August [76] - The company has become debt-free following recent equity infusions, with remaining funds in fixed deposits for future capital expenditures [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: When will the new plant be fully operational and what is the expected return on capital? - The new plant is expected to start by July 29, with full capacity utilization targeted within two to three years, aiming for a return on capital of around 20% [21][22] Question: What is the current pricing pressure and who are the key competitors? - The company is facing pricing pressure from larger competitors but has managed to maintain sales volumes and entered pricing agreements with key OEMs [26][36] Question: Is the current demand sustainable? - Management believes the current demand is sustainable and expects to meet the target of 225,000 tons for the year [54] Question: What is the update on the forging line and its capacity? - The forging line will cater to the automotive sector with an initial capacity of 12,000 to 15,000 tons per year, with no direct competition in India [86] Question: What are the government initiatives for green steel? - The government has set norms for green steel and is contemplating a carbon trading mechanism, which will benefit companies with lower carbon footprints [72][74]