My Buy call in May last year on Zscaler ( ZS ) was based on sustained growth above 20% and margin strength. Both have happened, and the stock was up by ~50% after the call. The current share prices are ~22% down fromI am a stock analyst with over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management. My focus is on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to uncover high-growth investment opportunities. As a former Vice President at Barclays, I led teams ...

The once relentless rally in AI-fueled stocks has lost momentum, as investors confront the unsettling idea that advances in artificial intelligence could erode the very value propositions that made tech giants dominant in the first place. Yet some executives and market veterans warn against short-term panic, calling the selloff a rare opportunity to buy into the next phase of the AI boom. The AI growth story has been tempered by a widespread selloff in software stocks. Call it the software-mageddon or t ...

Core Insights - The software selloff is intensifying, prompting ServiceNow's CEO to purchase shares during the downturn and to join other executives in halting automated stock-selling plans [1] Company Actions - ServiceNow's CEO is actively buying shares, indicating confidence in the company's future despite current market conditions [1] - The decision to end automated stock-selling plans by the CEO and other executives suggests a strategic move to align their interests with the company's long-term performance [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Market Sentiment - Fund managers are optimistic about an impending economic boom, driven by strong AI infrastructure spending and potential tax refunds [3][19] - Small-cap stocks are performing well, indicating a positive economic outlook, particularly for companies with significant U.S. operations [4] - There is a growing concern about an AI bubble, which fund managers identify as a major risk to the markets [5][6] Group 2: Software Stocks and Market Dynamics - Despite a selloff in software stocks, Wall Street profit estimates for these companies have risen, indicating a disconnect between stock performance and earnings expectations [10][12] - The market is experiencing a rotation away from tech stocks, with investors seeking opportunities in sectors like energy and consumer staples [14][18] - The software sector is facing disruption due to AI advancements, which could impact earnings and valuations [6][12] Group 3: Norwegian Cruise Line Leadership Change - John Chidzy, former CEO of Subway, has been appointed as the new CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line, raising questions about his suitability for the cruise industry [32][36] - Activist investor Elliot Management has taken a 10% stake in Norwegian and is pushing for significant changes to improve stock performance [37][41] - The cruise line industry is competitive, with companies like Royal Caribbean and Carnival attracting different consumer segments, highlighting the need for strategic leadership [36][46] Group 4: Retail Sector Insights - Walmart is set to announce earnings, with expectations of strong performance driven by its focus on profitability and competition with Amazon [48][50] - The U.S. consumer's savings rate has dropped to 3.5%, indicating potential challenges in consumer spending that could impact retail performance [53] - Walmart's stock has shown significant momentum, outperforming Amazon, which has faced challenges in recent months [56][57] Group 5: AI-Driven Drug Development - Chai Discovery, co-founded by Joshua Meyer, is gaining attention in the AI-driven drug development space, highlighting emerging investment opportunities [58]

Microsoft’s AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, told the Financial Times last week that the tech giant is striving for “true self-sufficiency” in AI. That means developing its own powerful models and steadily reducing its dependence on OpenAI, even as the two companies maintain their partnership. Essentially, the company aims to move beyond the “powered by someone else” model.Shares of the tech giant have slumped 18% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. There are two main drivers behind those losses: the company’s FQ2 ea ...

Market Overview - US stocks experienced their worst week since November, with major tech companies losing a combined market cap of one trillion dollars since their earnings results [4] - Dow futures indicate a drop of about 72 points, while S&P futures suggest a decline of a third of a percent, and NASDAQ futures are under the most pressure, pointing to a drop of about 0.7% at the open [2][3] Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector, particularly software stocks, has seen hundreds of billions of dollars wiped off their value, leading to discussions about a potential "SAS apocalypse" [5][6] - Historical transitions in technology have shown that while many companies fail, others emerge stronger, suggesting a similar outcome may occur in the current AI-driven market [8][10] AI Disruption - AI is viewed as a significant disruptor across various industries, including finance, with expectations of increased productivity and efficiency [12][15] - Companies that effectively integrate AI into their operations are likely to thrive, while those that resist change may struggle [19][20] Investment Opportunities - Software stocks are currently trading at approximately three times revenue, down from historical highs, indicating potential investment opportunities, though not all companies will succeed [40][41] - Specific companies like Oracle and Digital Ocean are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of AI advancements [41] IPO Market Outlook - The IPO market is expected to see more activity in 2026 than in 2025, with a broader range of opportunities beyond just tech [53][55] - Proper pricing and understanding of market demands are crucial for successful IPOs, as evidenced by recent cancellations and postponements [55] Company-Specific Developments - Warner Brothers Discovery is in discussions with Paramount regarding a potential deal, which may reignite a bidding war [58] - Trip Advisor is facing pressure from activist investor Starboard, which is pushing for a majority slate on the board [59] - Masimo's shares surged following news of a nearly $10 billion acquisition by Daher, despite facing challenges in recent years [61]

Economic Indicators - December capital goods new orders (nondefense ex-aircraft and parts) are expected to increase by +0.4% month-over-month, indicating potential growth in capital spending [1] - January manufacturing production is anticipated to rise by +0.4% month-over-month [1] - Initial weekly unemployment claims are projected to decline by -2,000 to 225,000 [1] - The December trade deficit is expected to widen to -$86.0 billion [1] - Q4 GDP is expected to expand by +3.0% quarter-over-quarter annualized [1] - The December core PCE price index is expected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +2.9% year-over-year [1] Corporate Earnings - Nearly three-quarters of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, with 76% beating expectations [7] - S&P earnings growth is projected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [7] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6% [7] Stock Market Movements - Major stock indexes, including the Dow Jones, reversed earlier losses to trade higher, with the S&P 500 Index up +0.29%, Dow Jones up +0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 Index up +0.38% [6] - Software stocks are experiencing declines amid speculation of AI disruption, with Crowdstrike Holdings down more than -6% and Intuit down more than -5% [12] - Silver and gold mining stocks are falling, with gold prices down more than 3% and silver prices down more than 6% [13] Company-Specific News - Genuine Parts Co is down more than -12% after reporting Q4 net sales of $6.01 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.06 billion [15] - General Mills is down more than -8% after lowering guidance on its full-year organic net sales forecast [15] - Vulcan Materials is down more than -7% after forecasting full-year adjusted EBITDA below consensus [16] - Danaher is down more than -2% after reports of a nearly $10 billion acquisition deal for Masimo [17] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services is up more than +30% after Hapag-Lloyd AG announced a cash deal to buy the company [18]

Group 1 - The majority of gains in the S&P 500 Index have been driven by a few stocks, leading to a misconception that all AI-themed stocks are similar [1] - The market is now facing the reality that AI could disrupt profitable business models, challenging the notion that certain software is irreplaceable [2] - Historical examples show that technology sectors have undergone significant transformations, with previous leaders being replaced by new innovations [3] Group 2 - Current market dynamics indicate that sector-driven corrections are occurring, with specific sub-sectors impacting broader market indexes [4] - The S&P 500 Index is technically in a weak position, having broken below the 50-day moving average, which is now acting as resistance [5]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is experiencing a defensive reaction to AI developments, leading to a broad market decline, particularly affecting technology stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 1%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively [1]. - There is widespread weakness across the AI sector, impacting companies from chipmakers to platforms as investors assess the beneficiaries of AI advancements [2]. - Major companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir Technologies, and Advanced Micro Devices saw declines in their stock prices, indicating investor concerns about AI's impact on revenue [3]. Group 2: AI's Impact on Business Models - The market is increasingly focused on businesses that rely on expensive human processes, as AI capabilities threaten traditional revenue models [4]. - Recent product launches, such as AI-enabled tax planning and comparison tools, have intensified fears regarding the future of fee-based services in various sectors, including fintech [5]. - The "AI scare trade" has expanded beyond software to affect private credit, financial intermediaries, real estate services, and logistics, indicating a broader market behavior shift [6]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The S&P software and services sector has lost approximately $2 trillion since its peak in October, with significant losses occurring recently [7]. - Analysts estimate that around 20% of private credit exposure is linked to software, contributing to the turbulence faced by alternative asset managers [7]. Group 4: Strategic Perspectives - Strategists are divided on future market movements, with some viewing the current situation as a rotation of capital rather than a complete exit from equities [8]. - There are suggestions that markets may be overreacting to potential disruptions, creating opportunities for rebounds in higher-quality software [8]. - The phenomenon of "disruption hysteria" is being noted, indicating a potential bull market in this narrative [8].

Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend towards a range of 4 to 4.5, with concerns about mortgage affordability likely prompting discussions from the administration regarding yield curve control [1][2] - Current market conditions are characterized by volatility and dispersion, moving away from the previous enthusiasm for AI [3][6] Investment Strategy - A bottom-up approach to stock picking is recommended, focusing on companies with strong balance sheets, robust business models, and effective leadership [5][6] - There is a significant opportunity for stock picks, particularly in sectors influenced by AI, despite the overall market volatility [5][6] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Future market volatility will be influenced by both AI market dynamics and geopolitical factors, particularly U.S.-Iran relations and broader geoeconomic considerations [6][7] - The previous themes of globalization and the Washington consensus are no longer dominant, leading to increased market volatility [7][8]