Sentiment among South African manufacturers plunged as export sales remain weak and the manufacturing industry struggles to gain traction https://t.co/KyrFBOL36j ...

Core Insights - The American manufacturing industry faced significant challenges in 2025, including increased costs, rising unemployment, and slumping budgets, primarily due to uncertainties in trade policies and taxes [1][2] - Despite these challenges, opportunities are anticipated for 2026, driven by new tax stipulations from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, adjusted trade agreements, and potential interest rate drops [2][4] - The West Monroe report highlights a shift towards digitalization and improved decision-making in the manufacturing sector, with a focus on accurate data management and AI collaboration [3][4] Industry Overview - The manufacturing sector experienced a downturn in 2025, with a Deloitte report indicating a decline in activity and budgets [1] - The West Monroe report noted that 46% of companies reacted quickly to trade or policy shifts, which sometimes led to data inaccuracies [3] - M&A activity decreased in volume but increased in transaction values, indicating a focus on high-quality assets and modernization efforts [4] Company Highlights - Johnson Controls International plc (NYSE:JCI) reported a fiscal Q4 EPS of $0.42 and sales growth of 3% to $6.4 billion, with strong performance in its Systems and Service segments [10] - RTX Corporation (NYSE:RTX) received an Outperform rating from BNP Paribas Exane, with a price target of $210, and is involved in a $1.25 billion deal to supply missiles to Israel [12][13] - RTX has invested $33 million in a new manufacturing site in Arkansas to support missile production, reflecting increased demand amid global tensions [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on various sectors including **property**, **manufacturing**, **infrastructure**, and **retail**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Trends**: - October growth showed a significant slowdown across various sectors, with **fixed asset investment (FAI)** declining by **11.2% YoY** in October, worsening from **-6.8%** previously [4][88]. - The **property sector** experienced a notable contraction, with property sales growth dropping to **-18.8% YoY** in October, compared to **-10.5%** in September [74]. - **Industrial production (IP)** growth slowed to **4.9% YoY** in October, down from **6.5%** in September, indicating a broader economic deceleration [98]. 2. **Sector-Specific Performance**: - **Manufacturing** investment fell by **6.7% YoY**, while **infrastructure investment** declined by **12.1% YoY** [88]. - Retail sales growth decreased to **2.9% YoY** in October, reflecting a high base effect from previous trade-in subsidies [112]. 3. **Future Economic Outlook**: - GDP growth is expected to decelerate to around **4.2% YoY** in Q4 2025, with a full-year average of **4.9%** for 2025, aligning with the government's target of "around 5%" [4][6]. - The property downturn is anticipated to persist, with expectations of a **5-10% decline** in property sales and new starts in 2026, and a smaller contraction in 2027 [74]. 4. **Policy Measures**: - Modest policy easing is underway, including **RMB 500 billion** from special financial tools and additional local government bond quotas to stabilize economic activity [5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBC) is expected to cut policy rates by **20bps** by the end of 2026, with potential mortgage rate cuts of **30-40bps** [5]. 5. **Inflation and Credit Conditions**: - October's **CPI** increased to **0.2% YoY**, while **PPI** narrowed its decline to **-2.1% YoY** [127]. - Credit growth has softened, with new bank loans recorded at **RMB 220 billion** in October, significantly lower than the previous year [142]. Other Important Insights - The **high-frequency data** indicates continued weakness in property activities, with a **33% YoY** decline in property sales in early November [40]. - The **consumer confidence index** has shown slight recovery but remains below pre-COVID levels, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment [112]. - The **accumulated household excess savings** remain high, indicating a cautious outlook on spending [106]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and expectations for the Chinese economy moving forward.

November 28, 2025 01:33 AM GMT Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Chetan Ahya 亚洲首席经济学家 Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7812 亚洲经济 | Asia Pacific M Idea 观点：中国⸺资本支出在收 缩，下一步如何演变？ 中国的资本支出正在广泛收缩，引发投资者关注。投资和出 口动能是影响通缩前景的关键因素。我们强调三种可能的演 变情境。 要点 在本报告中，我们讨论中国名义FAI放缓的原因、其未来走ⲡ，以及这些变将如 何影响我们对通缩的看法。 Exhibit 1: 中国名义固定资产投资(FAI) 正在收缩⋯⋯ China nominal FAI %Y 3MMA %Y Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23 Apr-24 Oct-24 Apr-25 Oct-25 9% 5% 1% -3% -7% -11% -15% -11.2% 18% 14% 10% I (%Y 3MMA) Real estate (14%) Infrastructure (30%) Manufacturing ( ...

Economic Growth Overview - India's economy experienced a significant growth of 8.2% in the July-September period, marking a six-quarter high, driven by a surge in consumer demand and a reduction in goods and services tax (GST) [12][5][6] - The expansion was primarily led by a 9.2% growth in services and a 9.1% rebound in manufacturing [12][1] Consumer and Investment Trends - Private consumption, which constitutes nearly 60% of GDP, rose to a three-quarter high of 7.9% in the July-September period, up from 7% in the previous quarter [2][12] - Gross fixed capital formation, an investment measure, increased by 7.3%, slightly lower than the 7.8% growth in the prior quarter [2][12] - Agriculture growth was recorded at 3.5% in Q2, a slight decrease from 3.7% in Q1 [2][12] Future Growth Projections - The strong economic performance is expected to lead to upward revisions in growth estimates for FY26, with rating agency Crisil raising its forecast from 6.5% to 7% [7][12] - First-half FY26 growth was reported at 8%, an increase from 6.1% a year earlier, with gross value added (GVA) rising by 7.9% compared to 6.2% in the same period [7][12] Rural Consumption and Inflation - Strong agricultural performance and easing inflation are contributing to improved rural consumption growth, which is anticipated to continue into the first half of FY27 [8][12] - Retail inflation slowed to a record low of 0.25% in October, which, combined with strong growth, has complicated the outlook for potential rate cuts [10][12] Trade and Policy Considerations - The imposition of a 50% tariff by the US on India, including a 25% penalty for importing Russian oil, is a significant factor affecting future growth, with ongoing negotiations for a trade deal [8][12] - The GST Council's approval of a two-slab tax structure is expected to positively impact consumption by lowering taxes on various household goods [8][12]

Corporate bankruptcies are rising in 2025, nearing a 15-year high, S&P reports. This year, we've seen numerous notable bankruptcies, including Spirit Airlines and Claire's. How bad is it? We break down the trends in 3 charts. If you watch the news, you have undoubtedly seen the stories of well-known companies closing stores or raising doubts about their ability to continue operating. Earlier this month, S&P's data tracking company seemed to confirm our worst fears, reporting that 2025 bankruptcies ...

By Promit Mukherjee OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada's economy grew at a much faster pace than expected in the third quarter as crude oil exports and government spending boosted economic activity, data showed on Friday,​ even as business investments and household consumption disappointed due to the lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs. Third-quarter ‌annualized gross domestic product grew 2.6%, Statistics Canada said, escaping what could have been a technical recession after a contraction in the previous ‌qua ...

Core Viewpoint - NN, Inc. will present at NobleCon21, highlighting its position as a global diversified industrial company specializing in high-precision components and assemblies [1] Company Overview - NN, Inc. is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, and operates facilities across North America, Europe, South America, and Asia [3] - The company combines advanced engineering and production capabilities with materials science expertise to serve various global markets [3] Event Details - The presentation is scheduled for December 3 at 11:30 AM EST during the Twenty First Annual Emerging Growth Equity Conference at Florida Atlantic University [1] - A video webcast of the presentation will be available the following day on NN's investor relations website and Channelchek, with an archive accessible for 90 days [2]

Economic Growth Outlook - The economy is expected to see a slight pickup in growth, with GDP growth projected to be around 4.2% for Q3 and 4% for Q2 [25] - Job growth is anticipated to average around 80,000 for 2026, an increase from the recent average of 70,000 to 60,000 [19] AI's Impact on the Economy - AI spending currently represents about 1.5% of GDP, contributing approximately 25% to the overall GDP growth [6][7] - While AI is a significant driver of growth, it is not in bubble territory, and companies are expected to continue investing in AI [10][11] Federal Reserve Policy and Leadership - The potential nomination of Kevin Hasset as the next Fed chair may lead to a more dovish approach, but consensus among committee members will still be necessary [12][14] - The Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts, but challenges remain in achieving a dovish policy due to elevated inflation [15][14] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of strength, with a notable increase in construction employment and a rise in labor force participation [21][28] - The recent jobs report indicated a payroll increase of 119,000, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [21]

Core Insights - Major U.S. stock indices ended positively on Nov. 25, 2025, driven by investor optimism and an 83% probability of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut by the central bank in December [1][2] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Companies recommended for investment include Federal Signal Corp. (FSS), Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), Northrip Bancorp (NRIM), Safran SA (SAFRY), and Engie (ENGIY), as they carry low leverage and may offer stability during market volatility [3][10] - FSS reported a 30% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS and 17% revenue growth for Q3 2025, with a Zacks Rank of 2 [14][15] - JLL's adjusted EPS surged 29% year-over-year, with a 10% revenue increase in local currency for Q3 2025, also holding a Zacks Rank of 2 [16][17] - NRIM's EPS soared 207.7% year-over-year, driven by asset sales and increased net interest income, with a Zacks Rank of 2 [18][19] - Safran expects a 39.9% year-over-year improvement in sales for 2025, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 20.5% and a Zacks Rank of 2 [20][21] - Engie announced a new 280 MW/560 MWh Battery Energy Storage System project in India, with a projected 30.7% earnings improvement for 2025 and a Zacks Rank of 2 [21][22] Group 2: Financial Metrics and Analysis - Leverage is defined as the use of borrowed capital for operations and expansion, with a focus on avoiding companies that excessively rely on debt financing [4][5] - The debt-to-equity ratio is a key metric for assessing financial risk, with lower ratios indicating better solvency [6][7] - A strategy focusing on stocks with low debt-to-equity ratios is recommended for steady returns, especially during economic downturns [9][10] - Additional screening criteria for stock selection include being less leveraged than industry peers, trading at a minimum price of $10, having substantial trading volume, and showing positive earnings growth expectations [12][13]