周一，国际贵金属市场延续上周五的剧烈抛售行情，黄金与白银双双下挫，跌势进一步加深。 此前在避险需求和投机资金推动下，金银价格刚刚刷新历 史高位，但随着美元走强、获利了结集中涌现，市场动能迅速衰减，短期走势出现明显反转。 盘面数据显示，现货黄金周一一度下跌约10%，报每盎司4405美元左右。 此前上周五，金价单日暴跌近10%，一举跌破5000美元整数关口，创下近年来 罕见的剧烈回撤。白银表现更为极端，在上周五录得自1980年3月以来最惨烈的单日跌幅后，周一继续承压下行，现货价格一度下跌约15%，至每盎司72 美元附近。此前持续数周的强势上涨行情在短时间内被彻底扭转，市场波动显著放大。 分析人士普遍认为，本轮调整的直接背景，是上周五市场出现的"急刹车式"反转。此前，投资者围绕美联储未来降息的乐观预期不断加码贵金属多头仓 位，但这一共识在关键时点遭遇冲击。随着美国总统Donald Trump宣布拟提名前美联储理事Kevin Warsh接替现任主席，市场迅速重新评估未来货币政策 路径，对利率与流动性环境的预期出现明显分歧。 宏观层面，本周的另一大焦点是即将公布的美国1月非农就业报告。根据道琼斯调查，经济学家预计当月新 ...

Market Overview - US stock futures experienced a significant decline, with Nasdaq 100 futures dropping 1%, S&P 500 futures falling approximately 0.7%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average contracts sliding 0.3% [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, faced intense selling pressure, with gold briefly falling by 10% and silver sinking over 15%, marking a record single-day drop of around 30% on Friday [2] - Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark for the first time since April, trading just below $77,000 per token [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve by President Trump has raised speculation regarding future interest rate movements, with traders anticipating two rate cuts by the end of the year [4] Corporate Earnings and Economic Data - Over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, including major firms like Amazon, Alphabet, Disney, Palantir, and Advanced Micro Devices [6] - The upcoming January jobs report is expected to show an addition of 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4% [6] Company-Specific Developments - Estée Lauder's stock rose by 6% following a partnership with SalonCentric to distribute products across over 850 US stores [7] - GameStop's stock continued to rise, climbing 4% on Friday, as CEO Ryan Cohen expressed intentions to expand the company through acquisitions [7] - Newmont's stock fell more than 3% during premarket hours as gold prices dropped below $5,000 [8] Currency Movements - The US dollar strengthened against major currencies, particularly those sensitive to commodity prices, as gold and silver prices plummeted [10] - The dollar gained approximately 1% over the weekend, rebounding after a decline in the second half of January [11]

Market Overview - US stock futures experienced a significant decline, with Nasdaq 100 futures dropping 1%, S&P 500 futures falling approximately 0.7%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures sliding 0.3% [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, faced intense selling pressure, with gold briefly falling by 10% and silver sinking over 15%, marking a 30% drop in its biggest single-day decline on record [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark for the first time since April, trading just below $77,000 per token [3] - The dollar strengthened against major currencies, particularly those linked to commodity prices, as a result of the decline in precious metals [3][10] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve has raised speculation regarding future interest rate movements, with traders anticipating two rate cuts by the end of the year [4] Corporate Earnings and Economic Data - Over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, including major firms like Amazon, Alphabet, Disney, Palantir, and Advanced Micro Devices [6] - The upcoming January jobs report is expected to show an addition of 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4% [6] Nvidia and AI Sector - Nvidia's stock fell nearly 2% after CEO Jensen Huang clarified that the proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was not a firm commitment [7] - The broader artificial intelligence trade is facing uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment towards Nvidia and other tech stocks [5] Individual Stock Movements - Estée Lauder's stock rose by 6% following a partnership announcement with SalonCentric for product distribution [8] - GameStop's stock continued to rise, driven by CEO Ryan Cohen's plans for expansion through acquisitions [9] - Newmont's stock fell over 3% as gold prices dropped below $5,000 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Barton Gold Holdings Limited has commenced resource upgrade drilling at its Challenger Gold Project, aiming to establish initial 'Stage 1' Ore Reserves and a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) by June 30, 2026 [1] Group 1: Drilling and Resource Upgrade - The drilling program will involve up to 8,000 meters of reverse circulation (RC) drilling targeting the Challenger 'Main', 'Challenger West' open pits, and additional targets at 'Challenger South-Southwest' and 'Challenger 3' [1] - The objective of the DFS is to create a viable, simplified 'baseline' Stage 1 operation that will support the restart of the Central Gawler Mill (CGM) and maximize development options for Challenger, Tarcoola, Wudinna, and Tolmer projects [1] Group 2: Financial and Operational Strategy - Discussions are ongoing with credit, minerals trading, and investment groups to finance Stage 1 operations, with a target for JORC (2012) Ore Reserves and DFS completion by June 30, 2026 [1] - The DFS aims to establish a low-risk development plan that utilizes historical higher-grade tailings and near-surface materials, deferring the technical risks and costs associated with underground operations [1] Group 3: Resource Estimates and Future Plans - In September 2025, Barton published a new Challenger JORC (2012) Mineral Resources Estimate of 313,000 ounces of gold (10.6 million tonnes at 0.92 g/t), primarily located near existing serviceable open pit and underground development [1] - The company is also advancing its Tunkillia Gold Project, targeting a Mining Lease application by the end of 2026, which is expected to enhance overall production capabilities [1]

Price Target Increases - BMO Capital raised its price target on Orla Mining Ltd. to C$30 from C$22, maintaining an Outperform rating, reflecting confidence in the company's performance and outlook [1] - Scotiabank also increased its price target for Orla Mining to C$26.50 from C$21, while keeping an Outperform rating [1] Production Performance - Orla Mining exceeded its revised annual production guidance for 2025, producing 300,620 ounces of gold, surpassing the revised range of 265,000 to 285,000 ounces [2] - The company expects its full-year 2025 all-in sustaining costs to be within the updated guidance of $1,350 to $1,550 per ounce [2] Financial Position - As of December 31, 2025, Orla reported cash of $420.8 million and debt of $385.9 million, resulting in a net cash position of $35.8 million, which provides financial flexibility for growth investments [3] Exploration Results - Orla provided an update on exploration results at the Musselwhite Mine, confirming high-grade gold mineralization extending approximately two kilometers beyond current operations [4] - Significant gold mineralization was reported, including 5.0 meters at 5.57 g/t Au, with a notable intersection of 1.0 meter at 8.79 g/t Au [4] Company Overview - Orla Mining Ltd. is a Canada-based company focused on acquiring, developing, and operating mineral properties, with a portfolio that includes two operating mines and one development-stage project, all 100% owned [5]

Core Viewpoint - A fatal incident occurred at Serabi Gold's Palito underground operation, resulting in one employee's death due to a traffic accident underground, with no other personnel injured [1][2]. Incident Details - The company has notified relevant authorities, including the police, and is providing assistance for the ongoing investigations [2]. - Production in the area of the incident is expected to resume within a few days after the authorities complete their inquiries, while other mining operations remain unaffected [2]. Company Response - The Directors and management of Serabi express condolences to the family and colleagues of the deceased and are providing necessary support to the family [3]. - The company prioritizes the safety and well-being of its workforce and is reviewing the effectiveness and safety of all operations following the incident [4]. Company Overview - Serabi Gold plc is focused on gold exploration, development, and production in the Tapajós region of Brazil, consistently producing between 30,000 to 40,000 ounces per year from the Palito Complex [5]. - The company plans to double its production in the coming years with the construction of the Coringa Mine and has made a recent copper-gold porphyry discovery [5].

Core Viewpoint - Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE:KGC) is a significant player in the gold mining industry, recognized for its commitment to responsible mining and sustainable practices, competing with major producers like Barrick Gold and Newmont Corporation [1] Performance Summary - KGC has experienced a monthly gain of approximately 11.52%, indicating strong investor interest and positive market sentiment [2][6] - Despite this, the stock has faced a short-term decline of about 6.24% in the last 10 days, which may present a strategic entry point for investors [2] Growth Potential - The stock price growth potential for KGC is estimated at 16.92%, suggesting significant room for appreciation, appealing to growth-oriented investors [3][6] Financial Health - KGC holds a Piotroski Score of 8, reflecting solid financial health, profitability, liquidity, and operational efficiency, indicating the company is well-managed and financially stable [4][6] Analyst Outlook - Analysts have set a target price of $36.90 for KGC, reflecting confidence in the company's ability to achieve higher valuations based on its solid fundamentals and growth prospects [5]

Group 1: Newmont Corporation (NEM) - The quantitative analysis of NEM stock indicates a long streak of upside, but a second-order inductive analysis suggests potential downside risks [3][6] - The volatility skew for NEM options shows elevated implied volatility (IV) for both calls and puts, indicating a hedged bullish sentiment among traders [4][5] - Despite optimism, the complex transactions suggest that traders are not fully exposed to NEM stock, hinting at cautious positioning [4][5] Group 2: Rivian Automotive (RIVN) - RIVN stock has dropped over 25% since the start of the year, attracting interest from contrarian investors [7] - The volatility skew for RIVN options shows a significant upward curve in put IV at lower strike prices, indicating demand for downside protection [8] - The analysis suggests a potential price range for RIVN stock between $15 and $16 over the next 10 weeks, with a recommended bull call spread strategy [10][11] Group 3: Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA) - TEVA stock has gained over 9% since January and approximately 121% over the past six months, but the trade is becoming overcrowded [12][13] - The volatility skew for TEVA options indicates elevated put IV at lower strike prices, signaling a predominant sentiment for downside insurance among traders [14][15] - The analysis predicts a likely price range for TEVA stock between $30 and $36 over the next 10 weeks, with a suggested bear put spread strategy [16][17]

Investment Thesis - Gold serves as a strategic hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with recent price movements creating attractive entry points for long-term investors [2][4] - Major gold miners are also involved in the extraction of other essential metals, which have reached all-time highs, further enhancing the investment case for gold and its miners [1][2] Market Performance - Spot gold has surged above summer 2020 highs, achieving its best year since 1979 in 2025, with gold and silver prices increasing by 80% and 209% respectively before a recent selloff [1] - Analysts predict gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026 and $10,000 per ounce by 2028, with long-term expectations ranging between $10,000 and $16,150 over the next decade [3] Central Bank Activity - Central bank gold holdings have increased to nearly 36,200 tonnes, accounting for almost 20% of official reserves, up from around 15% at the end of 2023, indicating a structural shift in reserve holdings [4] - The ongoing diversification away from U.S. dollar reserves has accelerated, creating sustained buying pressure for gold [4] Company Insights - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a preferred North American gold producer with a diversified portfolio and a small dividend yield of 0.74% [6][8] - Barrick Gold, formed from a merger with Randgold Resources, is one of the largest gold companies globally, offering a 1.20% dividend yield [9][10] - Franco-Nevada operates as a royalty and streaming company with a debt-free balance sheet and has increased its annual dividend for 18 consecutive years [12][14] - Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold mining entity, yielding a modest 0.79%, and is considered a timely buy for conservative investors [15][18] - Wheaton Precious Metals, a streaming company, derives approximately 60% of its revenue from silver and 40% from gold, offering a 0.43% dividend [19][20] Investment Vehicles - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF is highlighted as a pure play on gold, holding physical gold bullion, with each share representing one-tenth of an ounce of gold [21]

We conducted some research and found that the most powerful structural force is the global shift in reserve holdings. Central bank gold holdings amount to nearly 36,200 tonnes and account for almost 20% of official reserves, up from around 15% at the end of 2023. Diversification away from U.S. dollar reserve holdings, while still moderate, has accelerated in recent years, according to published sources. Central banks continue to increase the percentage of gold in their international reserves, fundamentally ...