Company Overview - Houlihan Lokey has 33 locations worldwide and 2,677 global employees, including 347 managing directors[11] - The firm's revenue reached $2.5 billion for the last twelve months ended June 30, 2025[11] - The average tenure of the Executive Management Team and Operating Committee Team is over 25 years[15] - No single individual generated more than 2% of the firm's revenues[24] Financial Performance - The company experienced strong revenue growth with a five-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16%[19] - Adjusted pre-tax income grew at a CAGR of 17% over the same five-year period[19] - For the three months ended June 30, 2025, revenues were $605.349 million compared to $513.609 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024[130] - Adjusted net income for the three months ended June 30, 2025, was $148.005 million, or $2.14 per diluted share, compared to $84.305 million, or $1.22 per diluted share for the three months ended June 30, 2024[130] Business Segments - Corporate Finance generated $1.597 billion in revenue, representing 64% of the total, Financial Restructuring $555 million (23%), and Financial and Valuation Advisory $329 million (13%) for the last twelve months ended June 30, 2025[71] - The Corporate Finance group closed 573 transactions, Financial Restructuring 147, and Financial and Valuation Advisory 2,460 fee events[71] - The company has increased its Managing Director Headcount by a CAGR of 9% over the last 20 years[59]

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Company Overview - PJT Partners is presented as a premier, global, advisory-focused investment bank[11] with a market capitalization of approximately $72 billion[14] - The company has grown to 129 partners globally[14] with an average partner experience of over 25 years[14], and employs 1,155 people across 15 offices in over 60 countries[14] - The firm serves over 400 clients[14] and has achieved approximately $15 billion in LTM 2Q25 revenues[14] Growth and Performance - Since 2015, the company has experienced significant growth, including a 180% increase in total partner count[27] and a 227% increase in total headcount[27] - Revenue has increased by 278% from $406 million in 2015 to $1535 million in LTM 2Q25[27] - Adjusted EPS has increased by 250% from $155 in 2016 to $542 in LTM 2Q25[27] - Adjusted Pretax Income has increased by 601% from $42 million in 2015 to $294 million in LTM 2Q25[27] Financial Highlights (2Q25) - Revenue for the second quarter of 2025 was $407 million, a 13% increase[68] - GAAP Pretax Income was $76 million, a 19% increase[68], while Adjusted Pretax Income was $80 million, a 22% increase[68] - GAAP Diluted EPS was $121, a 14% increase[68], and Adjusted EPS was $154, a 29% increase[68] Financial Highlights (First Half 2025) - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was $731 million, a 6% increase[68] - GAAP Pretax Income was $129 million, a 9% increase[68], while Adjusted Pretax Income was $136 million, a 13% increase[68] - GAAP Diluted EPS was $321, a 40% increase[68], and Adjusted EPS was $259, a 19% increase[68] Financial Highlights (LTM 2Q25) - Revenue for the last twelve months ending 2Q25 was $1535 million, an 18% increase[68] - GAAP Pretax Income was $281 million, a 32% increase[68], while Adjusted Pretax Income was $294 million, a 35% increase[68] - GAAP Diluted EPS was $582, a 52% increase[68], and Adjusted EPS was $542, a 38% increase[68] Capital Management - The company prioritizes investing in its business, offsetting dilution, and maintaining a dividend[70] - The company has a disciplined approach to expense management and maintains a strong cash position[70] - Approximately 40% employee ownership aligns senior management awards with shareholder value creation[70] - The company has repurchased shares, spending $438 million on share repurchases in LTM 2Q25[74]

Financial Performance Highlights - Nomura Holdings' net revenue reached Y523.3 billion, a 16% increase QoQ and a 15% increase YoY[12, 13] - Income before income taxes was Y160.3 billion, up 64% QoQ and 56% YoY[12, 13] - Net income attributable to Nomura Holdings shareholders was Y104.6 billion, a 45% increase QoQ and a 52% increase YoY[12, 13] - Return on Equity (ROE) was 12.0%[12, 13] Segment Performance - Four segment income before income taxes rose to Y105.8 billion, a 15% increase QoQ[12] - Wealth Management net revenue was Y105.8 billion, up 6% QoQ but down 4% YoY[14, 19] - Investment Management net revenue was Y50.6 billion, up 18% QoQ and 6% YoY[14, 42] - Wholesale net revenue was Y261.1 billion, up 1% QoQ and 7% YoY[14, 56] - Banking net revenue was Y12.8 billion, up 12% QoQ and 14% YoY[14, 75] Wealth Management - Recurring revenue assets saw net inflow for the 13th consecutive quarter[12, 23] - Total sales increased 24% QoQ[27] - Net inflows of recurring revenue assets were Y278.9 billion[23] Investment Management - Assets under management reached a record high of Y94.3 trillion[12, 45, 47] - Investment trusts (excluding ETFs, MRFs, etc) saw net inflow of Y280 billion[52] Wholesale - Global Markets net revenue was Y223.1 billion, up 8% QoQ and 7% YoY[63] - Investment Banking net revenue was Y37.9 billion, down 27% QoQ but up 2% YoY[66]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US economy** and its interaction with **tariff policies** and **central bank strategies**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Forecast**: Economists predict that tariffs will initially cause a temporary inflation spike in Q3 2025, followed by a significant economic slowdown in Q4 2025, referred to as a "growth pothole" [16][13][41]. 2. **Tariff Impact**: The tariffs are viewed as a tax burden that will eventually affect consumers, although the full impact may not be felt immediately as importers have not fully passed on costs to consumers yet [23][28]. 3. **Customs Duties**: The customs duties collected in July 2025 are projected to reach **$340 billion**, which is **1.10% of nominal GDP**, significantly higher than the historical average of **0.25%** [29]. 4. **CEO Confidence**: There is a noted relationship between CEO confidence and economic performance, with current CEO confidence not indicating immediate threats to the economy despite tariff concerns [30][41]. 5. **Market Complacency**: Investors appear complacent regarding the potential impacts of tariffs, as evidenced by current market pricing and performance [15][62]. 6. **Inflation Projections**: Core PCE inflation is expected to peak in May 2026, with current pricing suggesting a transitory impact from tariffs [72][47]. 7. **Central Bank Decisions**: Central banks, particularly the **Swiss National Bank (SNB)**, have surprised markets with their decisions more frequently than others, such as the **Federal Reserve (Fed)** and **Bank of Japan (BoJ)** [73][45]. Additional Important Content 1. **Treasury Market Dynamics**: The Treasury market is expected to see stable coupon sizes until February 2027, with a tailored approach to liquidity management [5][65]. 2. **Equity Market Correlation**: The equity market and real economy often diverge until a recession occurs, at which point they tend to align [31][36]. 3. **Future Projections**: The economists' baseline view suggests that while inflationary pressures are anticipated, the growth slowdown may catch both the Fed and investors off guard, potentially leading to a stall in the equity market [47][41]. 4. **Currency Movements**: The analysis indicates that currency reactions are closely tied to central bank decisions, with notable movements observed in currencies like the **GBP** and **AUD** following unexpected policy changes [54][90]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between tariffs, economic forecasts, and central bank strategies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of recent trade deals and tariff rates on the Asia Pacific region, particularly focusing on the effective tariff rates and their implications for economic growth and capital expenditure (capex) [1][7][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Effective Tariff Rates**: - The effective tariff rate for imports from Asia is projected to rise to 24% from 5% at the beginning of 2025, indicating a significant increase in trade costs for exporters [7][12][14]. - This rise in tariffs is expected to have a direct negative impact on exporters' sales and margins, as well as an indirect effect through a slowdown in capex [7][9][10]. 2. **Impact on Capital Expenditure**: - Initial signs of weakness in the Asia capex cycle have been observed, with June capital goods imports showing a notable month-on-month decline [7][9][39]. - The slowdown in capex is attributed to trade policy uncertainty and the anticipated effects of higher tariffs [39][10]. 3. **Trade Deal Dynamics**: - Four out of twelve Asian economies have reached trade agreements with the US, which has reduced uncertainty regarding tariff levels [8][12]. - However, many economies, including India, Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand, are still negotiating and have not secured comprehensive deals [10][12]. 4. **Sectoral and Regional Variations**: - Not all sectors and economies are equally affected by the tariff increases; for instance, US import prices from China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore have fallen, while prices from ASEAN and Japan have risen [20][21]. - The complexity of trade agreements, particularly with China, remains a significant concern, as ongoing negotiations are expected to lead to further delays rather than comprehensive resolutions [10][11]. 5. **Future Outlook**: - The macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025 remains cautious due to the anticipated direct and indirect effects of higher tariffs [9][10]. - The report highlights that while current data does not show significant tariff impacts, future months may reveal price cuts or lower volumes for Asian exporters as the effects of tariffs materialize [33][34]. Additional Important Considerations 1. **Transshipment Issues**: - The report notes that transshipment and the level of domestic content in exports will continue to be contentious issues, potentially leading to further trade tensions [11][10]. 2. **Foreign Value-Added Content**: - Restricting foreign value-added content in exports to below 40% poses challenges for many Asian economies, particularly those with high import content from China [44][45]. - Vietnam and the Philippines have the highest shares of Chinese value-added content in their exports, which could complicate compliance with potential US trade restrictions [47][49]. 3. **Inflationary Effects**: - The full inflationary effects of tariffs have yet to be fully realized, with expectations of price hikes looming over the summer months [10][11]. 4. **Currency Impact**: - The depreciation of the broad trade-weighted dollar by 7.3% since January has effectively increased US tariff rates by 31%, complicating the trade landscape further [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications of the recent trade dynamics affecting the Asia Pacific region, highlighting the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead for economies and sectors involved.

Core Insights - Evercore Inc. (EVR) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 30, 2025, with a consensus estimate for sales at $713 million, reflecting a 2.5% year-over-year increase [1] - The earnings consensus estimate remains unchanged at $1.78 per share, indicating a 1.7% decline from the prior-year quarter [2] - Evercore has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 37.35% [2] Investment Banking & Equities - Global mergers and acquisitions activity in Q2 2025 was stronger than anticipated, although advisory fees are expected to decline by 1.9% year-over-year to $557.3 million [3][4] - The IPO market saw a significant rebound, leading to an expected 10% increase in underwriting fees to $34.1 million compared to the prior-year quarter [5][6] - High trading volumes due to market volatility are likely to have improved commission and related fees, with a consensus estimate of $56.92 million, suggesting a 6.9% increase year-over-year [6] Asset Management - Favorable market conditions and sustained client inflows are expected to result in a 20.9% year-over-year increase in asset management and administration fees, with a consensus estimate of $22.25 billion [7] Expenses - Company expenses are anticipated to rise in Q2 2025 due to increased employee compensation and benefits costs [7] Earnings Outlook - The model indicates a high probability of Evercore beating estimates, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +4.79% and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [8][9] - Key factors contributing to potential earnings growth include increased AUM, a rebound in IPOs, and strong trading volumes, although higher compensation expenses may pressure profitability [8]

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Focus - The discussion centers around China's "anti-involution" policies and their implications for various sectors, particularly those facing overcapacity issues such as solar modules, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles (NEVs), and traditional industries like steel and cement [5][13][12]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Initiation of "Anti-Involution" Policies**: The term "involution" describes excessive competition leading to diminishing returns, prompting policymakers to regulate price-cutting and competition. This initiative was reinforced in recent meetings, including the Central Economic Work Conference [5][6][12]. 2. **Objectives of Policymakers**: The policies aim to address persistent PPI deflation, overcapacity, and growth concerns. China has seen 33 consecutive months of PPI deflation, with around 80% of industrial sectors reporting negative year-over-year price growth [7][12]. 3. **Sector Focus**: Key sectors identified for potential regulation include solar modules (149% of global demand), lithium batteries (126%), and NEVs (105%). Traditional sectors like steel and cement are also highlighted due to long-standing overcapacity issues [13][12]. 4. **Differences from Previous Reforms**: The current initiative differs from the 2016-18 supply-side reform in its broader scope, including new sectors and a more cautious approach to avoid undermining private sector confidence [17][20]. 5. **Market Reactions**: Speculation around these policies has led to a rally in commodity prices, stock prices, and bond yields, indicating market optimism despite the lack of detailed implementation plans [6][9][35]. Additional Important Content 1. **Implications for Growth and Employment**: The sectors involved in "anti-involution" policies account for 5.5% of GDP and 2.4% of total employment. However, mandatory capacity cuts are expected to have a limited direct impact on overall growth [30][32]. 2. **Potential Measures**: Proposed measures include capacity buyout funds for solar companies, price regulations in the EV sector, and production cuts in steel and cement. However, implementation details remain uncertain [16][12]. 3. **Monitoring Future Events**: Key upcoming events include the release of sector-specific implementation plans by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and the Politburo meeting, which will outline policy priorities for the second half of the year [38][39]. Conclusion The "anti-involution" policies represent a significant shift in China's approach to managing overcapacity and competition across various sectors. While the intent is to stabilize prices and improve profitability, the actual impact will depend on the execution of these policies and the broader economic context. Market participants are advised to monitor upcoming policy announcements and sector-specific developments closely.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Focus**: Addressing deflation challenges and overcapacity through anti-involution policies Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Deflation Challenges**: China has faced deflation for nine consecutive quarters, with the GDP deflator remaining negative and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in deflation for 33 months. This situation is attributed to overcapacity in the context of high investment-to-GDP ratios [7][8][32] 2. **Policy Response**: The government is expected to intensify policy measures to combat overcapacity, with a focus on demand-side solutions rather than solely supply-side adjustments. Historical comparisons are made to the 2015-16 supply-side reforms that helped the economy recover from deflation [7][9][10] 3. **Investment Dynamics**: The report highlights that the current economic strategy relies heavily on manufacturing and infrastructure investments to maintain GDP growth, especially in light of the structural slowdown in the real estate sector [8][15][31] 4. **Private Sector Role**: A significant portion of overcapacity is found in emerging industries, with 50-90% of capacity in the private sector. This complicates the management of supply-side reforms [7][44] 5. **Need for Demand Support**: The report emphasizes that merely reducing supply will not suffice; boosting demand through social welfare spending and consumption support is crucial for sustainable economic recovery [10][42] Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context**: The report draws parallels between the current economic situation and past deflationary periods, noting that previous recoveries were driven by strong external demand and real estate market rebounds, which are currently lacking [11][41] 2. **Population Dynamics**: The declining population and structural issues in the real estate market are expected to hinder future economic growth and complicate demand management [23][26] 3. **Sector-Specific Overcapacity**: The report identifies specific sectors, such as solar energy and electric vehicles, where supply significantly exceeds demand, complicating efforts to manage overcapacity [45][48] 4. **Long-Term Growth Strategy**: A shift in growth strategy is suggested, moving from investment-driven growth to a more balanced approach that includes consumption as a key driver [42][46] Conclusion - The report outlines a complex landscape for the Chinese economy, where addressing deflation and overcapacity requires a multifaceted approach that includes both supply-side reforms and demand stimulation. The historical context and current challenges highlight the need for a strategic shift in economic policy to ensure sustainable growth moving forward [42][50]