Key Points Levi Strauss's stock fell as much as 14% Friday morning despite Q3 beats on revenue and EPS. Management raised full-year guidance but flagged tariff stability and holiday macro risks. After a 49% six-month rally, LEVI trades around 18.7 times trailing earnings, and that's after Friday's retreat. 10 stocks we like better than Levi Strauss & Co. › Shares of Levi Strauss (NYSE: LEVI) faded on Friday, like a pair of bleached jeans. The apparel maker reported third-quarter results on Thursd ...

Scott Olson / Getty Images Levi Strauss & Co. offered future guidance that offset strong third-quarter results Key Takeaways Levi Strauss warned that tariffs will negatively affect its results in the fourth quarter. The jeans maker said fourth-quarter gross margin would fall and issued a projection for adjusted earnings per share that came in below Wall Street forecasts. The outlook offset solid third-quarter results on the top and bottom lines. Levi Strauss (LEVI) shares dropped as the jeans make ...

Market Reaction - Major U.S. equities indexes experienced a sharp decline, erasing early gains after President Trump threatened "massive" tariffs on Chinese goods in response to China's rare earth export curbs [1][5] - The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all lost over 1% [1] Chip Industry Impact - Chip stocks, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Arm (ARM), were among the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [2] - Nvidia (NVDA) shares also fell after reaching a new intraday record, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) down 4% [2] Company-Specific Developments - Qualcomm (QCOM) faced additional challenges as Chinese regulators investigated its acquisition of Autotalks for potential antitrust violations [3] - Mosaic (MOS) was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 due to production issues at two of its plants [3] - Levi Strauss (LEVI) shares dropped after the company indicated that tariffs would negatively impact current-quarter results [3] Other Notable Performances - PepsiCo (PEP) shares rose after reporting better-than-expected results driven by higher international demand and strong sales of healthier drinks in the U.S. [4][5] - Applied Digital (APLD) saw a significant increase in shares after beating earnings and revenue forecasts, aided by a new data center lease agreement with CoreWeave [4]

Core Insights - Snap-on Incorporated (SNA) is expected to report a decline in earnings for Q3 2025, with a revenue estimate of $1.16 billion, reflecting a 0.8% increase year-over-year, while earnings per share are projected to decline by 2.6% to $4.58 [1][10] Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at $4.58 per share over the past 30 days, indicating a decline from the previous year [1] - Snap-on has a negative trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.2% on average, but achieved a positive earnings surprise of 2.4% in the last reported quarter [2] Business Strategy and Growth Factors - The company is enhancing its business model through initiatives focused on safety, service quality, customer satisfaction, and innovation [3] - Snap-on's strategic growth agenda includes expanding its franchise network, strengthening relationships with repair shop owners, and increasing its presence in emerging markets [3] - The focus on Rapid Continuous Improvement aims to boost efficiency, control costs, and enhance organizational performance [4] Market Dynamics - Management remains optimistic about the auto repair sector, driven by increased household spending on vehicle maintenance, higher repair volumes, and rising technician wages [5] - The Repair Systems & Information Group segment is expected to see a 5% year-over-year revenue growth due to its expanding presence with OEM dealerships and independent garages [6] - The Tools Group segment is showing signs of recovery, with a projected 1% decline in revenues for Q3, supported by improving U.S. demand [7] Challenges and External Factors - Snap-on faces macroeconomic headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and economic disruptions in Europe and Asia, particularly China, which are expected to impact performance [10][11] - The company is dealing with persistent cost inflation from rising raw material and operational expenses, which poses risks to profitability [9][10] Valuation and Market Position - Snap-on's stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 17.15X, which is below its five-year high and near the industry average, indicating an attractive investment opportunity [13] - Over the past three months, Snap-on shares have gained 4.5%, compared to the industry's 5.9% growth [15]

Core Insights - The earnings reports from Delta Air Lines, Levi Strauss, and PepsiCo indicate that while consumers are still spending, they are doing so with increased caution and selectivity [1][3][12] Consumer Behavior - U.S. consumers are trading off and trading down, focusing on value and experience as budgets tighten [2][12] - A significant 68% of U.S. consumers reported living paycheck to paycheck as of August, indicating limited financial flexibility [4] - Average household liquid savings have decreased by over 10% in the past 16 months, reducing the ability to absorb unexpected expenses [4] Delta Air Lines - Delta's earnings report for the September quarter showed a 4.1% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by premium, corporate, and loyalty segments [7] - High-income travelers continue to spend on premium products, which have shifted from loss leaders to high-margin offerings [7] - Mid-income travelers are opting for base fares or deferring trips, indicating a stratified consumer resilience [7] Levi Strauss - Levi Strauss reported a 9% increase in global direct-to-consumer sales, with a focus on value brands like Signature by Levi Strauss & Co. showing double-digit growth [8][9] - The company noted that consumers are prioritizing trusted brands at accessible price points, reflecting a trend of trading off rather than trading out [10] PepsiCo - PepsiCo's earnings highlighted a split in food and beverage spending between staples and indulgences, with a focus on affordability and value for low- and middle-income households [11] - Despite economic pressures, larger brands like Pepsi have seen volume growth, attributed to smaller pack sizes and local pricing strategies, resulting in a 2.6% increase in overall net revenues [11] Overall Market Trends - The combined insights from earnings reports and consumer data depict a U.S. consumer who remains active but increasingly calculated in spending [12][13] - Premium travel and name-brand apparel are seen as aspirational, while food and beverage companies succeed by balancing affordability and brand loyalty [12][13]

Core Insights - The earnings reports from Delta Air Lines, Levi Strauss, and PepsiCo indicate that while consumers are still spending, they are doing so more selectively and with a focus on value [1][3][12] Consumer Behavior - U.S. consumers are trading off and trading down, balancing value and experience as budgets tighten, leading to a cautious approach to discretionary purchases [2][12] - A significant 68% of U.S. consumers reported living paycheck to paycheck as of August, indicating limited financial flexibility [4] - The average household's liquid savings have decreased by over 10% in the past 16 months, further constraining consumer spending power [4] Company Performance - Delta Air Lines reported a 4.1% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by premium, corporate, and loyalty segments, highlighting that affluent travelers continue to spend on comfort and perks [7] - Levi Strauss saw a 9% increase in global direct-to-consumer sales, with its value brands, particularly Signature by Levi Strauss & Co., achieving double-digit growth as consumers seek trusted brands at accessible price points [8][9] - PepsiCo's net revenues grew by 2.6%, with a focus on affordability and brand loyalty, as low- and middle-income households seek value while still purchasing larger brands [11] Market Trends - The current consumer economy reflects contrasts, with premium travel and name-brand apparel remaining aspirational, while food and beverage companies succeed by offering affordability and trust [12] - The spending behavior this year is characterized by economic triage, where consumers are stretching their dollars, delaying indulgences, and favoring brands that align with their new cost-conscious mindset [13]

Core Insights - lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) and Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) represent contrasting strategies in the fashion and lifestyle apparel sector, with lululemon focusing on performance-driven innovation and community engagement, while Ralph Lauren emphasizes timeless elegance and diversified product lines [1][2] Group 1: lululemon (LULU) - lululemon maintains a strong position in the global activewear market, driven by brand equity and a loyal consumer base, despite a softening overall demand in the consumer discretionary space [3] - The company has 30 million members, but management recognizes the need for a creative refresh in its product lineup to reignite consumer enthusiasm [4] - lululemon is recalibrating its product strategy by shortening design cycles and enhancing agility through vendor collaboration and digital tools, including the appointment of a chief AI and technology officer [5] - Near-term challenges include sales fatigue in the U.S. and margin pressures from elevated tariffs [6] - The company is implementing targeted pricing actions and cost savings while maintaining long-term brand health, aiming for a balanced recovery in fiscal 2026 [7] Group 2: Ralph Lauren (RL) - Ralph Lauren is a global icon in the premium lifestyle segment, supported by a diversified portfolio that includes apparel, accessories, and home collections [8] - The company continues to outperform peers in brand desirability and pricing, with a transformation plan emphasizing brand elevation and digital-first growth [9][10] - Ralph Lauren is expanding internationally, particularly in Asia and Europe, while enhancing direct-to-consumer channels for better brand control and profitability [11] - The company faces near-term challenges such as FX volatility and cost pressures but is mitigating these through selective price adjustments and inventory discipline [12] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for lululemon's fiscal 2025 sales suggests a year-over-year growth of 3.7%, while EPS indicates a decline of 11.9% [13] - In contrast, Ralph Lauren's fiscal 2026 sales and EPS estimates imply year-over-year growth of 6.1% and 20%, respectively [14] - Ralph Lauren's stock has outperformed lululemon, with a total return of 12.5% over the past three months compared to lululemon's decline of 26.6% [18] - lululemon trades at a forward P/E multiple of 13.45X, below its 5-year median of 29.83X, while Ralph Lauren commands a premium multiple reflecting stronger investor confidence [21][23] - Ralph Lauren's premium valuation underscores its steady earnings trajectory, while lululemon's lower multiple indicates short-term skepticism [25] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Ralph Lauren is viewed as the stronger near-term performer due to solid returns and growing investor confidence, supported by its brand elevation and digital expansion strategies [26] - lululemon, despite its loyal consumer base, faces near-term headwinds that have impacted sentiment and earnings momentum [26][27] - Ralph Lauren's premium valuation reflects its enduring brand strength and balanced growth trajectory, making it a more compelling choice for investors prioritizing stability [27]

Core Insights - Levi's reported a strong quarter with growth across various brands, channels, categories, and regions, driven by the global popularity of denim [2] - The company holds a leading market share in both the U.S. and worldwide for men's and women's apparel, positioning it well for future growth [2][3] - Direct-to-consumer sales increased by 11%, while wholesale sales rose by 3%, contributing to a net revenue increase of 7% year-over-year to $1.5 billion [5][6] Financial Performance - Net revenue growth was 6% in the Americas, 5% in Europe, and 12% in Asia, with women's apparel sales up 9% and men's up 5% [2] - Gross margin expanded by 110 basis points to 61.7%, although this was partially offset by tariffs [6] - Net income from continuing operations reached $122 million, more than five times higher than the previous year [6] Market Position and Strategy - The brand's longevity is seen as an asset, with consumers gravitating towards trusted brands during uncertain times [3] - The company has the potential to double its store count in the U.S., currently operating nearly 460 stores in the Americas [6] - Analysts noted that Levi's retail execution requires improvement, as it is perceived as a wholesaler lacking the dynamic retail experience of competitors [4] Outlook and Challenges - Executives project a conservative outlook for Q4, influenced by last year's extra week that boosted revenue and gross margin [4] - Concerns were raised regarding the company's ability to manage expenses, with selling, general, and administrative expenses rising nearly 7% to $776 million [5] - Analysts highlighted ongoing challenges in scaling expenses effectively, which may impact visibility into future margins [5][6]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing mixed signals and heightened volatility, with major indexes largely in the red due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and an ongoing government shutdown [1] - All three major U.S. stock indexes are showing declines, with the Nasdaq Composite down approximately 1.7%, the S&P 500 down around 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down roughly 0.9% [2] - The market recalibration is driven by a cooling of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and concerns over stretched valuations in the tech sector [2] Economic Data and Events - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is disrupting the release of crucial economic data, creating uncertainty for investors [3] - Key reports such as initial unemployment claims and the U.S. trade report have been delayed, with potential impacts on inflation data scheduled for release on October 15 [3] - Investors are awaiting the University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment report, expected to show a slight dip to 54.5 from the prior 55.1 [4] Earnings Season and Market Expectations - Earnings season is set to begin next week, with major banks reporting third-quarter results, providing insights into the economy amid the absence of comprehensive government data [5] - The upcoming week will feature the publication of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, critical for inflation outlooks [5] - Futures trading indicates a 95% chance of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's October 28-29 meeting [5] Corporate Developments Notable Gainers - Tilray Brands (TLRY) surged by 22.1% after reporting first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of $209.5 million, surpassing estimates [6] - Applied Digital (APLD) soared over 28% following a strong earnings report and new lease agreements for AI data centers [6] - PepsiCo (PEP) shares jumped 4.2% after reporting third-quarter 2025 earnings that outpaced expectations [6] - Delta Air Lines (DAL) gained 0.3% after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings [6] - Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) saw shares pop after Novo Nordisk announced its acquisition of the firm for up to $5.2 billion [6] - Nvidia (NVDA) hit a new all-time high in early trading but reversed course amid broader market declines [6] Significant Losers - AZZ Inc. (AZZ) shares declined 4.9% after reporting second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings that missed estimates [12] - Levi Strauss (LEVI) plunged nearly 7% despite strong quarterly results due to macroeconomic concerns [12] - Qualcomm (QCOM) fell 1% as China initiated an antitrust investigation into the company [12] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares were down nearly 8% following tariff threats on China [12] - Mosaic Co (MOS) shares were down 8.5% after reporting lackluster preliminary third-quarter volumes [12] - Tesla (TSLA) stock slid after an investigation into its Full Self-Driving software [12] - Ferrari (RACE) shares sank after issuing a soft outlook [12] Market Sentiment and Trends - The market is caught between conflicting forces, with tariff threats and the government shutdown creating headwinds, while lower bond yields and retreating crude oil prices provide some support [8] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of England have warned about soaring stock market valuations, particularly in the AI sector, raising concerns about a potential market correction [9] - Gold has returned 53% year-to-date in 2025, significantly outperforming major U.S. stock indexes as investors seek a hedge against political uncertainty and government debt [9]

Welcome back. In a paid advertisement in the journal this week, Lululemon founder Chip Wilson likened the decline of the athleisure brand to a plane crash due to a quote series of mistakes. Lululemon responded in a statement to CNBC denouncing the ad and the company's founder, saying in part, "Chip Wilson has not been involved with the company for a decade, and he continues to make inaccurate and misleading statements about Lululemon, our history, and our board and leadership team. Lululemon shares are down ...