Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that despite a recent market pullback with a decline of 1.4% in the computer sector, there is strong confidence in the ongoing development of domestic AI, suggesting that opportunities still exist [4] - The financial results from Century Internet validate the robust growth of the AI industry, with new orders of 252.5MW in Q4 2024 and a projected total capacity delivery of 400-450MW in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 161%-194% [4] - The report emphasizes the need to closely track developments in the AI industry, particularly in large model changes and application advancements, as numerous industry changes are expected domestically and internationally [4] - There is a focus on edge AI, which is anticipated to develop significantly with the emergence of multimodal large models, leading to new hardware terminals [4] - The report highlights the upcoming Nvidia GTC conference and the increasing importance of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) applications in AI data centers, suggesting a positive outlook for related power supply companies [4] - Investment strategies should focus on industry trends and select companies with high potential, while also considering the volatility of the sector [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector experienced a market pullback with a decline of 1.4%, ranking last among the Shenwan industry sectors [4] AI Industry Developments - The report notes a consensus in the market regarding the development of domestic AI, with significant capital expenditures expected from companies like Century Internet [4] - The report suggests that the market has shifted from "transaction expectations" to "transaction realities" regarding AI implementation [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear application directions in edge AI and 2B applications, as well as those involved in domestic computing power [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 "AI+数据要素"有望挖掘数据变现新潜力 计算机周观察 20250316 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 我们认为 AI 跟数据要素结合有望诞生数据变现新方式，当前国家统筹数据侧、 算力侧基础设施发展，国产 AI 全产业链面临历史性成长机遇，继续重点关注 AI Infra、国产算力、AI 应用、数据要素重点环节等布局机会。 ❑ 风险提示：政策落地不及预期；AI 发展不及预期；行业竞争加剧风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 283 | 5.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3910.6 | 4.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3408.9 | 4.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 3.9 90.7 45.0 相对表现 2.2 63.9 32.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Mar/24 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《国产大模型及 Agent 发力，AI ...

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 本周观点聚焦 1、本周 观 点： 持续挖掘阿尔法，关注 AI 算力及 eCall 产业变化 2、深度跟 踪 ： eCall潜 在市场有多大？ —eCall 产业跟踪系列二 周观点 持续挖掘阿尔法，关注 AI 算力及 eCall 产业变化 持续挖掘阿尔法投资机会。 正如我们上周观点所述，计算机板块将从强贝塔走向强阿尔法。在当前的时间点，建议从以下三方面挖掘阿尔法： 1 ）业绩超预期， 3 月下 旬至 4 月是财报披露的密集窗口期，年报中的前瞻性指标及一季报的业绩趋势将成为市场关心的重点； 2 ）产业边际变化，包括算力供需端的变化，以及 AI Agent 在 行业端的落地进展； 3 ）政策边际变化，包括货币、财政政策，以及信创招投标景气度变化。 关注 AI 算力产业最新变化。 在国外，英伟达 GTC 大会将于 3 月 17-21 日在美国加州圣何塞举办，预计将正式揭晓新一代 AI 芯片平台" Rubin "的技术细节，建议关 注英伟达产业链核心公司；在国内，腾讯将于 3 月 19 日发布 2024 年报，大厂资本开支趋势对国内算力产业景气度具有重要指引意义。同时，算力租赁正成为市场关 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (首次) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the computer sector has shown a significant increase of 6.7% this week, ranking third among the Shenwan industries, driven by the announcement of several computing power leasing orders and the emergence of Manus [3][4] - Manus is compared to last year's Kimi moment, marking a pivotal point in recognizing the capabilities of "task-oriented AI" in the 2.0 era, which is expected to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of the trend towards virtualization and cloud deployment, suggesting that companies like 深信服 could benefit from the increasing demand for virtualization products as businesses adopt AI agents [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector has experienced a notable increase of 6.7% this week, indicating strong market interest and institutional focus on software segments [3] Manus and AI Trends - Manus represents a significant shift in the understanding of AI applications, showcasing the capabilities of task-oriented AI, which can execute long tasks and operate asynchronously in cloud environments [4] - The report suggests that the emergence of Manus could lead to a broader recognition of the potential of AI applications in various industries [4] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in AI and virtualization, including those involved in computing power and AI applications [6] - Specific companies to watch include 浪潮信息, 华勤技术, and 移远通信, which are positioned to capitalize on the growth in AI and cloud services [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **computer industry** with a specific emphasis on **AI applications in the B-end market** [1] Core Insights and Arguments - **Challenges in B-end AI Applications**: Major challenges include the complexity of enterprise IT systems, low tolerance for errors, security issues, and legal concerns regarding cross-regional data interaction. However, advancements in technologies like deep seek are gradually overcoming these challenges [2][3] - **Performance of AI Models**: The **Alibaba QWQ32B model**, with 32 billion parameters, matches or even surpasses the performance of the **deep seek r1 model** with 671 billion parameters, particularly excelling in mathematical reasoning and code generation, thus significantly reducing application costs [2][4] - **Development of AI Agents**: AI agents are evolving towards transparency, traceability, and security, with significant potential for cost reduction and efficiency enhancement in B-end applications. The main operational modes include embedding, copilot, and autonomous decision-making, indicating a stronger human-machine collaboration [2][5] - **Investment Phases in the Computer Industry**: The investment rhythm is divided into three phases: 1. Full-field beta diffusion with broad label expansion 2. Focus on productization with substantial progress 3. Emergence of alpha opportunities in individual stocks Currently, the market is in the latter half of the first phase, with noticeable rotation effects between large and small-cap stocks [2][6] - **Future Direction of AI**: The future of AI is expected to be centered around the agent model, where AI takes on more autonomous tasks while humans supervise and evaluate outcomes [2][7] Additional Important Insights - **Human-Machine Collaboration Models**: The current collaboration models include embedding, copilot, and agent modes, each serving different needs in various scenarios [2][8] - **B-end and C-end Application Prospects**: AI agents can serve both enterprise needs (e.g., intelligent customer service, process automation) and consumer scenarios (e.g., virtual assistants, travel planning). Future developments should focus on enhancing user coverage and providing personalized recommendations [2][9] - **Tech Giants in AI Agent Development**: Major companies like Microsoft, Google, and Salesforce are actively developing AI agent technologies, with products like Copilot, AI Agent Space, and Agent Force, respectively. Additionally, Zhizhu AI and OpenAI have introduced their own intelligent agent products [2][10][11] - **Limitations of AI Agents**: Current AI agents struggle with understanding user needs in complex tasks, requiring frequent communication for clarification, which diminishes perceived user benefits. They perform well in standardized tasks but still require human intervention in areas involving complex value judgments [2][12] - **B-end Market Requirements and Challenges**: The B-end market demands strict standards for data security and accountability, leading enterprises to prefer transparent and traceable decision-making paths. Challenges include the need for customer education, customized development, and budgetary constraints, alongside competition intensifying due to the rapid integration capabilities of tech giants [2][13][14]

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 1、本周 观 点： 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法？ 2、深度跟 踪： RISC-V 开源生态：正在快速崛起的国产化分支 周观点 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法？ 从强贝塔走向强阿尔法。 鉴于本轮计算机行业的业绩趋势与产业变化的特征，目前暂判断其动能与 2018-2020 年上行趋势具有可比性，但预计本轮会更强一些。综合 来看，全年板块收益的贝塔属性仍在，但将收敛，挖掘阿尔法是未来的胜负手。当前的位置，建议重点关注产业变化更显著、成长空间更大的细分方向，比如 AI 应用、 云计算、信创、 eCall 等方向；对于看重中短期业绩兑现的方向，需聚焦到具备业绩持续超预期能力的公司。 高度重视 AGI 预期发酵。 Manus 的发布，正打开 AGI 预期发酵的大门。 AGI 是人工智能的终极目标，伴随着 Manus 的发布，市场对 AGI 的预期正在升温，同时也 有望加快科技大厂在 AGI 领域的进化速度，以及各应用场景的 AI Agent 落地速度。需要高度重视的是：从投资的长期视角来看， AGI 的预期发酵往往是 AI 投资的最 后冲刺阶段；但从中期视角来看，如果 AGI 的预期发酵能得到产业变化的持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the computer industry is shifting from strong beta to strong alpha, with expectations that the momentum will be stronger than the upward trend observed from 2018 to 2020. The focus should be on sectors with significant industrial changes and growth potential, such as AI applications, cloud computing, and eCall, while also identifying companies with sustained performance exceeding expectations [1][2]. Group 1 - The release of Manus has heightened expectations for AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), which is seen as the ultimate goal of AI. This development is expected to accelerate the evolution of major tech companies in the AGI field and the implementation of AI agents across various applications [2]. - From a long-term investment perspective, the fermentation of AGI expectations often represents the final sprint phase for AI investments. If sustained industrial changes support this trend, the market will likely exhibit strong continuity [2]. - The launch of Alibaba's open-source QwQ-32B model, which has performance comparable to the full version of DS-R1 but with significantly lower computational requirements, indicates that leading domestic models will continue to emerge. The valuation premium for companies with scene positioning capabilities will be significantly higher than that for companies tied to a specific large model [2]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes the rapid rise of the RISC-V open-source ecosystem as a significant branch of domestic innovation, highlighting its importance in the current technological landscape [3].

Market Performance - Most indices showed an upward trend, with the CSI 1000 index performing well, rising by 2.14%. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.17%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1.81% [6][7] - The technology, financial services, media, consumer services, and real estate sectors performed well, with returns of 4.78%, 4.54%, 4.43%, 2.71%, and 2.46% respectively. In contrast, the banking, steel, utilities, oil and gas, and transportation sectors underperformed, with returns of -0.55%, -0.22%, 0.06%, 0.23%, and 0.28% respectively [7][8] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment was high, with 115 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 6 stocks hitting the limit down. The limit-up stocks from the previous day had an average return of 3.11%, while the limit-down stocks had an average return of -0.35% [2][10][11] - The sealing rate was 76%, an increase of 7% from the previous day, and the consecutive sealing rate was 25%, also up by 7% [12] Market Capital Flow - As of March 5, 2025, the margin trading balance was 1,903.3 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 1,891.7 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 11.6 billion yuan. The margin trading balance accounted for 2.4% of the total market capitalization [3][14] - The margin trading accounted for 9.1% of the total market transaction volume [15] Premium and Discount - On March 5, 2025, the telecom 50 ETF had the highest premium at 1.84%, while the 创50 ETF had the highest discount at 0.55% [16] - The average discount rate for block trades over the past six months was 5.10%, with a discount rate of 5.20% on the same day [17] - The annualized premium and discount rates for major stock index futures were reported, with the CSI 1000 index showing a significant annualized discount rate of 20.58%, placing it in the 10th percentile for the past year [18] Institutional Attention and Rankings - The stocks with the most institutional research in the past week included 百济神州-U, 华锐精密, and 阿拉丁, with 百济神州-U being researched by 113 institutions [19] - The stocks with the highest net inflow from institutional special seats included 东软集团, 新致软件, and 热景生物, while those with the highest net outflow included 拓维信息 and 科华数据 [20][22]

从目前百元股分布情况来看，科创板股票最多。另外，目前百元股主要集中在一些科技属性相对更强的行业，传统行业分布较少。 A股百元股再超百只 半年时间数量大增逾170% 最近半年来，随着A股市场水涨船高，百元股数量正在不断增加。 Wind数据显示，就在半年前的2024年8月底，A股市场股价超过100元的股票（文中亦简称"百元股"）仅有38只。随着A股市场从2024年9月下旬开始大涨，2024 年9月底百元股数量快速增加至67只，2024年10月底进一步增至70只，2024年11月底增至75只。2024年12月小幅下降至74只。 随着A股市场水涨船高，A股市场百元股数量正在不断增加，截至目前已达到103只，数量较半年前大增逾170%。 百元股数量的不断增加，反映出上述时间段A股市场活跃度逐渐升温，也反映出市场整体股价和估值水平的升高。 从行业分布上看，若按照申万一级行业划分，电子行业百元股数量最多，达到36只，计算机行业居于次席，为16只。医药生物、机械设备、汽车、通信、电力设 备、食品饮料等行业也较多，上述行业均超过5只。银行、非银金融、农林牧渔、钢铁、房地产等行业则没有百元股出现。从行业特性来看，目前百元股主要集 ...

市场研究部 2025 年 2 月 24 日 计算机行业周度观察 本周计算机行业指数表现 本周（2.17-2.23）计算机（申万）板块上涨 3.17%，沪深 300 指数 上涨 1.00%，计算机板块跑赢沪深 300 2.17 个百分点。和申万其他行 业对比，计算机行业涨幅排名位列第 5 位。 本周涨幅前 3 名分别为东华软件(+48.88%)、宏景科技(+36.31%)、索 辰科技(+31.62%)，跌幅前 3 名分别为上海钢联(-10.03%)、永信至诚 (-10.87%)、新炬网络(-16.47%)。 行业动态 人工智能 华为擎云为代表的新势力在迅速落地自己研发的数字教育解决方案。 华为擎云与成都市七中育才学校（东湖校区）携手，成立华为擎云 智慧教育自主创新实训室，并成功落地擎云智慧教育-计算机教室解 决方案。擎云智慧教育-计算机教室解决方案的又一大亮点是分布式 桌面云也是华为擎云计算机教室解决方案的重要特色之一。通过网 络同传、运维分析系统，运维人员可以对设备远程集中管理维护， 数据来源：Wind，国新证券整理 邮箱：wangwenyj@crsec.com.cn 分析师：王闻 登记编码：S1490519 ...