Summary of the Computer Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the computer industry, specifically the performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, highlighting revenue trends and profitability metrics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **2024 Performance**: The total revenue for the computer industry in 2024 was 1.27 trillion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.78%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47% to 188 million RMB, and non-recurring profit fell by 52% to 82.5 million RMB. The total number of employees also declined by 0.6% to 1.201 million [2][6]. - **Q1 2025 Recovery**: In Q1 2025, the industry showed signs of recovery with revenue reaching 286 billion RMB, a 15% increase year-on-year. Non-recurring profit was approximately 28 million RMB, nearly 1.9 times higher than the previous year. However, the growth in profit is influenced by a low base effect, making revenue growth a more reliable indicator [3][6]. - **Quarterly Revenue Trends**: Revenue growth has shown significant volatility over the years, peaking at 17.3% in Q1 2022 before declining. It rebounded to 9.17% in Q2 2024 and surpassed 15% in Q1 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in industry sentiment [7]. - **Profitability Decline**: From 2019 to 2024, the average gross margin decreased from approximately 43% to 38%, with the median gross margin dropping from 42% to 35%. The median net margin fell from 10% to 1.74%, reflecting a decline in profitability due to cyclical effects and increased AI R&D expenditures [10]. - **Contract Liabilities and Cash Flow**: In 2024, contract liabilities and advance payments totaled 1.1298 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 7%. Operating cash flow improved to 77 billion RMB, up from 72 billion RMB the previous year, with accounts receivable remaining stable at around 30% of revenue [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Segmentation**: Large-cap companies showed resilience with an 8% revenue growth in 2024, while small-cap companies experienced a 9% decline. In Q1 2025, large-cap companies achieved a revenue growth rate of 22%, while small-cap companies declined by 7% [4][14]. - **Sector Performance**: The "Xinchuang" sector demonstrated significant revenue and net profit growth in 2024. In Q1 2025, sectors such as AI, autonomous driving, data elements, and energy performed well, driven by major companies like iFlytek and Hongquan [15]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The current favorable fiscal and monetary policies, along with increased cloud spending, are expected to enhance industry sentiment. The anticipated incremental effects of AI are expected to manifest in Q2 and Q3. Investors are advised to focus on the recovery of traditional businesses and the changing market demand for AI-related products [8][9][16]. - **Goodwill Trends**: Goodwill has been declining since 2019 due to poor economic conditions and challenges in meeting performance commitments. The expected goodwill for 2025 is projected to decrease to 73 billion RMB from 77 billion RMB [13]. - **R&D and Expense Ratios**: In 2024, the median R&D expense ratio was 11.84%, while management and sales expense ratios remained stable at around 8-10% [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the computer industry's performance and outlook.

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 重点布局 AI 应用及国产化。 从细分领域来看，在当前的位置，综合考虑产业本身的迭代催化、后续的政策发力 方向、订单的落地节奏等因素，建议重点布局 AI 及国产化，以及 eCall 及金融科技。其中，上述领域中，从受 业绩影响的维度来看，对 5 月的风险偏好改善相对更敏感的是 AI 应用及国产化；同时考虑到产业的催化密度， 预计 AI 应用将最为核心。 国内 AI 产业持续加速发展。 自 4 月底以来，国内 AI 产业正迎来密集催化。 4 月 25 日，中共中央政治局就加 强人工智能发展和监管进行集体学习； 4 月 28 日，阿里巴巴发布了最新 Qwen3 模型； 4 月 30 日，小米开源 推理大模型 Xiaomi MiMo ，同日 DeepSeek 开源了最新的数学定理证明专用模型 DS-Prover-V2-671B 。后 续，包括 DS-R2 等在内的大模型进展值得期待。 风险提示：板块业绩不达预期；下游需求存在景气度不稳定的风险；科技创新可能带来短期业绩下降。 注：文中报告节选自兴业证券经济与金融研究院已公开发布研究报告，具体报告内容及相关风险提示等详 ...

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/陈鑫/杨本鸿/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨 本周观点聚焦 1、本周 观 点： 把握超跌加仓机会，加力布局信创产业链 2、深度跟 踪 ：信创：国际环境变局下的成长之矛 周观点 把握超跌加仓机会，加力布局信创产业链 把握超跌加仓机会，布局绩优成长龙头。 受关税事件等影响，市场风险偏好下行，板块调整充分。从基本面来看，计算机板块大部分公司和国内 G 端、 B 端支出关系 更强，在国内政策发力，内需有望提振的背景下，受关税影响较小，且将更受益于国产化产业趋势。伴随后续风险偏好企稳，板块估值修复可期。建议当下以长打短， 积极加仓，重点布局被错杀的超跌质优龙头。 信创产业发展加速，加大板块布局力度。 本周，半导体协会发文定义半导体产品原产地认定规则，有望刺激国产硬科技自主可控进程加速。中物联呼吁锻造 " 自主链核 " ，优先采购国产尖端产品。经过长期的产业积累，国内基础软硬件产品已经具备了较强的竞争力，在海外环境倒逼的背景下，有望迎来更大的市场需求，更好的发展格 局，建议以长期视角审视板块发展逻辑，优选核心环节自主可控龙头公司大力布局。 本文第二章，对信创产业最新进 ...

本周观点聚焦 周观点 把握超跌加仓机会，加力布局信创产业链 把握超跌加仓机会，布局绩优成长龙头。 受关税事件等影响，市场风险偏好下行，板块调整充分。从基本面来 看，计算机板块大部分公司和国内 G 端、 B 端支出关系更强，在国内政策发力，内需有望提振的背景下，受关 税影响较小，且将更受益于国产化产业趋势。伴随后续风险偏好企稳，板块估值修复可期。建议当下以长打短， 积极加仓，重点布局被错杀的超跌质优龙头。 点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/陈鑫/杨本鸿/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨 证券研究报告： 《 信创：国际环境变局下的成长之矛 》 对外发布时间： 2025 年 4 月 12 日 报告发布机构： 兴业证券股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格） 本报告分析师 ： 蒋佳霖 SAC执业证书编号： S0190515050002 孙 乾 SAC执业证书编号：S0190518110001 陈 鑫 SAC执业证书编号：S0190522030001 杨本鸿 SAC执业证书编号：S0190522080001 张旭光 SAC执业证书编号：S0190523090002 杨海盟 SAC执业证 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Computer Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the computer sector, highlighting recent market adjustments and their impacts on various companies within the industry [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Adjustment Impact**: The computer index dropped by 12.55% on Monday, with a near 1% recovery on Tuesday. Many computer stocks experienced a 20% adjustment, with around 180-190 companies seeing declines over 15% [2][3]. - **Overseas Revenue**: In 2023, overseas revenue for the computer sector was only 12%, with the U.S. market contributing 2%. This limited exposure means that overall performance is less affected by international market fluctuations [4]. - **Stable IT Spending**: Downstream IT spending remains stable, and the risk from tariff increases is limited due to the low overseas revenue share [4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies with solid fundamentals and good Q1 performance are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, such as: - **New大陆**: Expected Q1 profit growth over 20% and has initiated stock buybacks [5]. - **通行宝**: Anticipated annual growth of 70%-100% [5]. - **新国都**: Currently undervalued with a projected profit of approximately 7 billion yuan and a market cap of 90 billion yuan [7]. - **科远智慧**: Expected to achieve 3.2-3.5 billion yuan in revenue this year, with a market cap of 48 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 14, indicating it is undervalued [8]. - **鸿泉物联**: Potential for significant profit growth if domestic policies are fully implemented by 2027 [9]. - **云赛智联**: Projected growth of over 20% this year, with involvement in Shanghai's smart computing initiatives [10]. - **Market Sentiment**: Market sentiment has a diminishing marginal effect on the computer sector. As confidence returns, the sector is expected to rebound more robustly [6]. - **AI Sector Performance**: Companies in the AI application field, such as 赛意信息, 合合信息, and 虹软科技, have strong fundamentals despite market volatility. Their revenue is not heavily reliant on the U.S. market, mitigating risks from international fluctuations [11]. - **信创 Industry Development**: The 信创 industry is accelerating due to international environmental changes, with companies like 华大九天 and 海天瑞声 poised to benefit. Mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector are expected to strengthen foundational capabilities [12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the computer sector suggests that while recent adjustments have been significant, the underlying fundamentals of many companies remain strong, presenting potential investment opportunities in a recovering market [2][6][12].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **信创 (Xinchuang) industry**, which is focused on domestic technology development and innovation in response to international trade tensions and tariffs [2][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariffs on the Computer Industry**: The computer industry is characterized by high elasticity, with a recent drop of approximately 13%. Tariffs have a limited impact, as overseas revenue constitutes about 10% of the sector, with only 5% affected by U.S. tariffs [2][6]. - **Growth in Xinchuang Industry**: The Xinchuang industry is experiencing a peak in construction due to fiscal stimulus and a clear quantitative target set for 2027. The demand is high, as indicated by procurement data from Guangdong Province [2][4]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: There is robust demand and supply in the Xinchuang sector, with rapid technological advancements among companies. Fiscal support is enhancing industry sentiment [7][10]. - **U.S. Trade Policies**: The U.S. has expanded its entity list, impacting Chinese semiconductor development and prompting companies to adjust supply chains. This has accelerated domestic innovation and technology upgrades [8][9]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should focus on the entire Xinchuang sector, analyzing company performance and market sentiment while considering lessons from previous trade disputes [7][26]. Notable Companies in Xinchuang - Key companies to watch include **EDA**, **华大九天 (Huada Jiutian)**, **达梦 (Dameng)**, **中软 (Zhongruan)**, and **软通 (Ruantong)**. EDA is particularly significant due to its critical role in the industry [5][26]. Market Dynamics - **Procurement Trends**: Guangdong Province's commercial PC procurement from January to March 2025 has already surpassed the total for the previous year, indicating strong market growth [14][15]. - **Operating Systems**: The primary operating systems in the Xinchuang sector include **麒麟 (Kylin)** and **统信 (Tongxin)**, which dominate in government and financial sectors [18]. - **Database and CPU Developments**: **达梦 (Dameng)** is a key player in the database market, while **龙芯 (Loongson)** is notable in the CPU space, with products achieving competitive performance levels [19][20]. Future Projections - **PC and Server Sales**: Projections indicate that online PC sales in the government sector will reach 950,000 units by 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [24]. - **Government Support**: The government is providing substantial financial backing for the Xinchuang sector, with plans for long-term bonds and significant funding allocations [23]. Additional Insights - **Global Supply Chain Opportunities**: The instability in global supply chains presents opportunities for Chinese hardware and software companies to expand internationally, particularly in regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [12]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: The Xinchuang industry is seeing shifts in market share across various segments, with domestic products gaining ground against established foreign competitors [25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future potential of the Xinchuang industry amidst ongoing global trade challenges.

文 ｜ 杨泽原 丁奇 潘儒琛 马庆刘 孙竟耀 朱珏琦 曲松 预计2 0 2 5Q1计算机行业整体收入稳健增长，但各板块业绩有所分化，算力、信创、AI应用等方向 或表现优异。展望2 0 2 5年，建议把握"AI主线"机遇，重点看好AI Ag e n t及算力主线方向，如管理 办公软件、医疗IT、算力芯片、服务器、云厂商等板块；同时建议兼顾信创、低空经济、机器人 等结构性机遇，如工业软件、基础软件、军工IT、政务IT等板块。 ▍ 2 0 2 5Q1业绩前瞻：预计整体收入稳健增长，算力、信创、AI方向景气持续。 2）云应用： 预计整体稳健增长，有国产化需求的相关公司保持较快收入增速。信创招标逐步启 动、AI应用逐步落地背景下，我们预计2 5Q1通用软件将延续2 0 2 4的收入增长韧性，国产化影响 较大的方向或增长更快，如数据库、工业软件等。 宏观经济发展不及预期；人工智能技术发展和进程不及预期；国内政府与企业IT支出不达预期； 国际贸易摩擦加剧；相关产业政策不达预期；海外市场拓展不及预期。 3）产业互联网： 预计受各板块下游影响业绩呈现一定分化，预计2 5Q1金融IT、建筑IT、工业 IT等顺周期板块仍有一定增长 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that despite a recent market pullback with a decline of 1.4% in the computer sector, there is strong confidence in the ongoing development of domestic AI, suggesting that opportunities still exist [4] - The financial results from Century Internet validate the robust growth of the AI industry, with new orders of 252.5MW in Q4 2024 and a projected total capacity delivery of 400-450MW in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 161%-194% [4] - The report emphasizes the need to closely track developments in the AI industry, particularly in large model changes and application advancements, as numerous industry changes are expected domestically and internationally [4] - There is a focus on edge AI, which is anticipated to develop significantly with the emergence of multimodal large models, leading to new hardware terminals [4] - The report highlights the upcoming Nvidia GTC conference and the increasing importance of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) applications in AI data centers, suggesting a positive outlook for related power supply companies [4] - Investment strategies should focus on industry trends and select companies with high potential, while also considering the volatility of the sector [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector experienced a market pullback with a decline of 1.4%, ranking last among the Shenwan industry sectors [4] AI Industry Developments - The report notes a consensus in the market regarding the development of domestic AI, with significant capital expenditures expected from companies like Century Internet [4] - The report suggests that the market has shifted from "transaction expectations" to "transaction realities" regarding AI implementation [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear application directions in edge AI and 2B applications, as well as those involved in domestic computing power [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 "AI+数据要素"有望挖掘数据变现新潜力 计算机周观察 20250316 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 我们认为 AI 跟数据要素结合有望诞生数据变现新方式，当前国家统筹数据侧、 算力侧基础设施发展，国产 AI 全产业链面临历史性成长机遇，继续重点关注 AI Infra、国产算力、AI 应用、数据要素重点环节等布局机会。 ❑ 风险提示：政策落地不及预期；AI 发展不及预期；行业竞争加剧风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 283 | 5.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3910.6 | 4.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3408.9 | 4.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 3.9 90.7 45.0 相对表现 2.2 63.9 32.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Mar/24 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《国产大模型及 Agent 发力，AI ...

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 本周观点聚焦 1、本周 观 点： 持续挖掘阿尔法，关注 AI 算力及 eCall 产业变化 2、深度跟 踪 ： eCall潜 在市场有多大？ —eCall 产业跟踪系列二 周观点 持续挖掘阿尔法，关注 AI 算力及 eCall 产业变化 持续挖掘阿尔法投资机会。 正如我们上周观点所述，计算机板块将从强贝塔走向强阿尔法。在当前的时间点，建议从以下三方面挖掘阿尔法： 1 ）业绩超预期， 3 月下 旬至 4 月是财报披露的密集窗口期，年报中的前瞻性指标及一季报的业绩趋势将成为市场关心的重点； 2 ）产业边际变化，包括算力供需端的变化，以及 AI Agent 在 行业端的落地进展； 3 ）政策边际变化，包括货币、财政政策，以及信创招投标景气度变化。 关注 AI 算力产业最新变化。 在国外，英伟达 GTC 大会将于 3 月 17-21 日在美国加州圣何塞举办，预计将正式揭晓新一代 AI 芯片平台" Rubin "的技术细节，建议关 注英伟达产业链核心公司；在国内，腾讯将于 3 月 19 日发布 2024 年报，大厂资本开支趋势对国内算力产业景气度具有重要指引意义。同时，算力租赁正成为市场关 ...