Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of a significant cold wave on energy demand, particularly for natural gas and coal, leading to a surge in stock prices for gas companies and an increase in fuel prices due to heightened heating needs [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gas stocks experienced a strong rally, with several companies such as Guo Xin Energy and Changchun Gas hitting the daily limit up [2]. - The cold wave is expected to push temperatures down significantly, with some areas experiencing drops exceeding 12°C, leading to increased demand for heating [2]. Group 2: Fuel Price Trends - The price of coal at Qinhuangdao Port has surpassed 800 yuan per ton, reaching a yearly high, driven by early heating demand [3]. - The average daily coal consumption at coastal power plants has increased by over 15% year-on-year due to the early onset of winter [3]. Group 3: Energy Supply Assurance - The National Energy Administration has confirmed that natural gas supply will be sufficient for the heating season, with domestic production expected to exceed 100 billion cubic meters for the ninth consecutive year [4]. - Major oil companies are actively increasing their gas reserves and production, with China Petroleum's gas storage capacity reaching a historical high [4].

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on the energy production situation for October 2025, indicating a stable production of raw coal and steady growth in crude oil and natural gas production [1][7]. Group 1: Coal Production - The production of raw coal in large-scale industries remained at a high level in October 2025 [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Production - The output of crude oil in large-scale industries reached 18 million tons in October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, although the growth rate slowed by 2.8 percentage points compared to September [5]. - From January to October, the cumulative crude oil production was 180.64 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [5]. Group 3: Natural Gas Production - The production of natural gas in large-scale industries was 22.1 billion cubic meters in October, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but the growth rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points from September [6]. - For the period from January to October, the total natural gas production was 217 billion cubic meters, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [6]. Group 4: Electricity Production - The electricity production in large-scale industries reached 800.2 billion kilowatt-hours in October, with a significant year-on-year increase of 7.9%, accelerating by 6.4 percentage points compared to September [6]. - From January to October, the cumulative electricity production was 8062.5 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [6].

Group 1: Energy Production Overview - In October, the production of raw coal remained at a high level with an output of 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and an average daily output of 1.312 million tons [1] - The cumulative production of raw coal from January to October reached 3.97 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] Group 2: Oil Production - In October, the output of crude oil was 18 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, with a daily average output of 581,000 tons [3] - From January to October, the total crude oil production was 180.64 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [3] - The processing of crude oil also saw stable growth, with a processing volume of 63.43 million tons in October, up 6.4% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Natural Gas Production - The production of natural gas in October was 22.1 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, although the growth rate slowed by 3.5 percentage points compared to September [6] - From January to October, the total natural gas production was 217 billion cubic meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [6] Group 4: Electricity Production - The electricity generation in October reached 800.2 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, with an acceleration of 6.4 percentage points compared to September [8] - From January to October, the total electricity generation was 8,062.5 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [8] - Breakdown of electricity generation showed that thermal power increased by 7.3%, hydropower grew by 28.2%, nuclear power rose by 4.2%, while wind power decreased by 11.9% and solar power increased by 5.9% [8]

Group 1: Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas Production - In October, the industrial coal production remained at a high level with a total output of 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and an average daily output of 13.12 million tons [1] - From January to October, the total industrial coal production reached 3.97 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - The industrial crude oil production in October was 18 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, with a daily average output of 581,000 tons [3] - For the period from January to October, the total industrial crude oil production was 180.64 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [3] - The industrial natural gas production in October was 22.1 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, and a daily average output of 710 million cubic meters [6] - From January to October, the total industrial natural gas production reached 217 billion cubic meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7] Group 2: Electricity Production - The industrial electricity production accelerated in October, with a total generation of 800.2 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and an average daily generation of 25.81 billion kilowatt-hours [9] - From January to October, the total industrial electricity generation was 8,062.5 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [9] - In October, the industrial thermal power generation turned from decline to growth with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, compared to a decline of 5.4% in September [9] - The industrial hydropower generation increased by 28.2% year-on-year in October, although the growth rate slowed by 3.7 percentage points compared to September [9] - The industrial nuclear power generation grew by 4.2% year-on-year in October, with an acceleration of 2.6 percentage points compared to September [9] - The industrial wind power generation saw a decline of 11.9% year-on-year in October, with the decline rate expanding by 4.3 percentage points compared to September [9] - The industrial solar power generation increased by 5.9% year-on-year in October, but the growth rate slowed by 15.2 percentage points compared to September [9]

Group 1: Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas Production - In October, the production of raw coal remained at a high level, with an output of 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and an average daily output of 13.12 million tons. From January to October, the total output was 3.97 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2][4] - Raw oil production showed steady growth, with an output of 18 million tons in October, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but the growth rate slowed by 2.8 percentage points compared to September. The average daily output was 581,000 tons [3][4] - Natural gas production growth slowed, with an output of 22.1 billion cubic meters in October, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, which is a slowdown of 3.5 percentage points from September. The average daily output was 710 million cubic meters [9][10] Group 2: Oil Processing and Electricity Production - Oil processing maintained stable growth, with a processing volume of 63.43 million tons in October, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and an average daily processing of 2.046 million tons. From January to October, the total processing volume was 614.24 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [5][6] - Electricity production in the industrial sector accelerated, with a total generation of 800.2 billion kilowatt-hours in October, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, which is an acceleration of 6.4 percentage points compared to September. The average daily generation was 25.81 billion kilowatt-hours. From January to October, the total generation was 8,062.5 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [13][10] - In terms of electricity generation types, thermal power turned from decline to growth with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, while hydropower grew by 28.2% but slowed by 3.7 percentage points compared to September. Nuclear power increased by 4.2%, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points, while wind power saw a decline of 11.9%, expanding the decline by 4.3 percentage points. Solar power generation increased by 5.9%, but the growth rate slowed by 15.2 percentage points [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [2] - L: Bearish rebound [2] - PP: Bearish rebound [2] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Sideways bottoming [4] - Urea: Rebound to short [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The core driver for the energy and chemical industry is the supply - demand imbalance, with some products facing supply surpluses during the off - season and others having potential demand improvements [2][10][15] - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to supply surplus and OPEC's production plans; LPG may rebound due to inventory factors; other products' trends are affected by factors such as capacity utilization, demand changes, and cost support [2][10][15] Group 3: Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: Overnight, international oil prices stabilized, with WTI up 0.26%, Brent up 0.48%, and SC down 2.43%. As of November 7, the US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels [8][9] - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the off - season supply surplus and global inventory accumulation. OPEC's latest monthly report predicts an oversupply in 2026, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [10] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC expects non - OPEC regions' crude production to increase by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026. IEA predicts global oil supply growth. OPEC's November report forecasts global crude demand increments [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close previous short positions. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [445 - 460] [12] LPG - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the PG main contract closed at 4,303 yuan/ton, down 1.06% [14] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to crude oil. The cost is weak, limiting the upside. The supply has decreased, and the demand has mixed performance. The inventory has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4300 - 4400] [16] L - **Market Quotes**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,818 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [18][19] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has been repaired, and the monthly spread is moving towards a positive spread. The supply is loose, and the demand has weak replenishment motivation. The oil price may decline, lacking cost support [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - long term. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6800 - 6950] [20] PP - **Market Quotes**: The PP2601 closed at 6,429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [23] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak due to cost. The inventory is high, and the demand is insufficient. The oil price may continue to fall [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - long term. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [24] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The V2601 closed at 4,586 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: The futures price is at a premium, and the warehouse receipts are at a new high. The market is in a weak fundamental situation during the off - season, but the low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4500 - 4650] [28] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PXN spread is 250.3 (+11.8) dollars/ton, and the short - process PX - MX spread is 112.0 (+5.0) dollars/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has increased production, and the demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The cost side has a loose supply - demand pattern for crude oil [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up on a single - side trade. Pay attention to expanding downstream processing fees (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the price range of PX at [6810 - 6920] [30] PTA - **Market Quotes**: TA05 is at 4,728 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,616 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,664 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability needs to be tracked. There is an expected inventory build - up in November [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on a single - side trade at low prices. Pay attention to expanding TA processing fees (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4600 - 4670] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: EG05 is at 3,942 yuan/ton, EG11 at 3,848 yuan/ton, and EG01 at 4,019 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an expected inventory build - up in November [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3880 - 3960] [36] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Not specifically mentioned in a significant way [39] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the price. The supply side has increased production, and the demand is average. The cost support is weak but may be stable in the fourth quarter [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [39] Urea - **Market Quotes**: UR05 is at 1,734 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,753 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,667 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is high, and the export has maintained a high growth rate. There are upside and downside limits [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about the risk of the price falling after rising. Look for opportunities to go short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of UR at [1630 - 1655] [44] Natural Gas - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the NG main contract closed at 4.744 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.42% [46] - **Basic Logic**: The demand increases during the heating season as the temperature drops. The cost - profit situation shows an increase in domestic LNG retail profit. The supply and demand and inventory have certain characteristics [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is likely to rise but has limited upside. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.511 - 4.688] [48] Asphalt - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the BU main contract closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [51] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly driven by crude oil. The cost support weakens as the oil price falls. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has decreased [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [52]

Group 1: Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas Production - In October, the industrial coal production remained at a high level with a total output of 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and an average daily output of 13.12 million tons. From January to October, the total coal production was 3.97 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] - Oil production showed steady growth, with an output of 18 million tons in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, although the growth rate slowed by 2.8 percentage points compared to September. The average daily output was 581,000 tons. For the first ten months, the total oil production reached 180.64 million tons, up by 1.7% year-on-year [4] - Natural gas production growth slowed, with an output of 22.1 billion cubic meters in October, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, down by 3.5 percentage points from September. The average daily output was 710 million cubic meters. From January to October, the total natural gas production was 217 billion cubic meters, up by 6.3% year-on-year [8][9] Group 2: Electricity Production - The electricity production in the industrial sector accelerated, with a total generation of 800.2 billion kilowatt-hours in October, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, which is an acceleration of 6.4 percentage points compared to September. The average daily generation was 25.81 billion kilowatt-hours. For the first ten months, the total electricity generation was 8,062.5 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [11] - In terms of electricity generation by type, thermal power turned from decline to growth with a year-on-year increase of 7.3% in October, compared to a decline of 5.4% in September. Hydropower grew by 28.2%, although the growth rate slowed by 3.7 percentage points from September. Nuclear power increased by 4.2%, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from September. Wind power saw a decline of 11.9%, with the decline rate expanding by 4.3 percentage points, while solar power grew by 5.9%, but the growth rate slowed by 15.2 percentage points compared to September [11]

北方地区已陆续进入供暖季，季节性用能高峰即将到来。今年迎峰度冬期间，能源安全稳定供应是否有 保障？ 近年来我国能源安全保供能力不断增强，为供暖季能源稳定供应打下坚实基础。 ——供应能力持续提升。国家能源局数据显示，前三季度，煤炭先进产能建设持续推进，原煤、油气生 产平稳增长，规上工业原煤、原油、天然气产量分别同比增长2%、1.7%、6.4%。 煤炭供应方面，当前市场总体平衡偏宽松。10月以来，全国煤炭日均调度产量持续处于1200万吨以上的 较高水平。此外，10月以来，国家铁路电煤装车保持在日均5.6万车的较高水平。 天然气供应方面，我国最大的储气库——中国石油新疆油田呼图壁储气库11月10日正式启动第十三周期 采气工作，全力保障今冬明春天然气供应。 在"双碳"目标引领下，我国可再生能源发展势头强劲，共同助力供暖季。截至9月底，全国累计发电装 机容量37.2亿千瓦，同比增长18%。其中，可再生能源装机接近22亿千瓦，风电、太阳能发电合计装机 突破17亿千瓦。 "迎峰度冬期间，我们将持续跟踪煤炭生产、进口、需求等重点指标变化趋势，会同有关方面全力做好 迎峰度冬煤炭保供相关工作。"国家能源局市场监管司副司长张燕秦介 ...

Core Insights - Algeria has surpassed the United States and Russia to become Spain's largest natural gas supplier [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In October, Algeria supplied approximately 13.8 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of natural gas to Spain, accounting for 39.5% of Spain's total imports [1] - Of the total supply, around 3.77 billion kWh was delivered via liquefied natural gas (LNG), while the remainder was transported through the Medgaz pipeline [1] - The United States accounted for approximately 39.2% of Spain's natural gas supply, with Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea ranking third and fourth, respectively [1] - Algeria and the United States together represent nearly 80% of Spain's natural gas imports [1] Yearly Overview - For the entire year, Algeria maintained its leading position, supplying 34.1% of Spain's total natural gas imports, while the United States supplied 31.6% and Russia dropped to 10.5% [1] - In October, Spain's natural gas demand increased by 21.9% year-on-year, reaching 29.2 terawatt-hours (TWh), with a cumulative growth of 7.2% for the first ten months of the year [1] Future Outlook - The report suggests that as Spain's energy demand continues to grow and Algeria's supply remains stable, the energy cooperation between the two countries is expected to strengthen further [1]

Core Insights - Algeria exported approximately 29 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the EU in the first three quarters of this year, showing a slight decrease of over 1 billion cubic meters compared to the same period last year, but overall remains stable as a key supplier to the EU [1] Group 1: Export Dynamics - Italy remains the primary destination for Algerian pipeline gas, receiving about 14.5 billion cubic meters through the Transmed pipeline in the first eight months of this year, capturing a market share of 35.5% [1] - The slight decline in exports is attributed to reduced natural gas demand in Europe and scheduled maintenance of Algeria's largest liquefied natural gas facility planned for early 2025 [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - A seasonal increase in gas exports to Europe is expected in the fourth quarter due to rising winter demand, with annual export levels anticipated to be similar to recent years [1] - Germany is set to import approximately 4 billion cubic meters of Algerian natural gas annually starting in 2026, which will enhance Algeria's strategic position in the European energy supply landscape [1]