作者 | 深鹏 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 每一次大的剧变，总会产生一些新赢家。 一战是美国，二战是美国、苏联，冷战前期是西德、日韩，后期是我们。 现在，世界似乎又走到类似的时间关口。 目前的高峰，是懂王牵起的贸易战，激进、强硬、神经质。 不过，这并不是我们此次重点讨论的议题。 我们更关心，这一轮剧变中，新的赢家会有谁？以及有什么投资机会？ 阿三？ 01 贸易战风声鹤唳之际，美国副总统访问了印度。 一天之后，传出美国和印度达成了贸易框架协议。 虽然说这个贸易框架，并不是最终可以执行的细节，大概等于一个意向，后面才会不断往里面填东西，但至少也是一个开始，对于两个国家而 言，都算得上一个利好。 实际上，印度和美国，包括西方发达国家达成经济层面的战略合作，有很多利好条件。 首先，是 人口红利与劳动力成本 。 印度是全球人口最多的国家（ 14.3 亿， 2024 年），且劳动年龄人口（ 15-64 岁）占比高达 67% （约 9.5 亿人），平均年龄仅 28 岁 （中国为 38 岁，美国为 39 岁） ； 印度制造业工人月均工资约为 15,000-25,000 卢比（约 180-3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Runjian Co., Ltd., aims to enhance its position as a leading provider of digital intelligent operation and maintenance services, focusing on AI-driven solutions across various sectors, including communication, digital networks, and energy networks. The company reported a revenue of 9.199 billion yuan and a net profit of 247 million yuan for the year 2024, with a strategic emphasis on AI model applications and international market expansion, particularly in ASEAN countries [27][28]. Company Overview - Runjian Co., Ltd. is recognized as a leading digital intelligent operation and maintenance service provider in China, focusing on AI industry models and computing power services [4]. - The company operates under a business model that integrates online digital platforms with offline technical services, enhancing its technological applications [4]. Business Segments Computing Power Services - The company has established a comprehensive computing power service model, providing lifecycle management for data centers and enhancing operational efficiency [5]. - A significant investment of 1.09 billion yuan has been allocated for the construction of the Wuxiang Cloud Valley Intelligent Computing Center, which will serve as a benchmark AI industrial park [5][6]. Data Services - Runjian has accumulated vast amounts of proprietary sample data over 20 years, which supports the development of AI industry models [6]. - The company offers integrated AI model and data services, including data governance and algorithm toolkits [6]. Platform Services - The "Quchi" platform enables multi-modal industry model development, facilitating the rapid construction of AI applications across various sectors [7]. - The platform includes features for dataset management, algorithm supermarkets, and lifecycle support for large models [8][10][11]. Communication Network Business - The company is a major player in the communication network maintenance sector, providing comprehensive lifecycle services for telecom infrastructure [14]. - AI-driven solutions are being implemented to enhance operational efficiency and data management capabilities [14]. Digital Network Business - Runjian focuses on providing digital solutions that align with national strategies, including smart parks and educational digitalization [15][17]. - The company is actively involved in developing smart city solutions and enhancing community management through advanced technologies [16]. Energy Network Business - The company integrates modern technologies into energy network management, offering comprehensive services across the energy supply chain [19]. - Runjian has developed a virtual power plant business model that aggregates distributed energy resources for market participation [21]. International Business - Since 2019, Runjian has expanded its operations into ASEAN countries, leveraging its expertise in telecommunications and digital services [23]. - The company has successfully implemented numerous large-scale data center projects in Southeast Asia, establishing a strong market presence [23][24]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 9.199 billion yuan and a net profit of 247 million yuan, with a focus on maintaining industry leadership [27][28]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.30 yuan per share, amounting to approximately 36.93 million yuan, which represents 14.98% of the net profit [37][38].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, the company reported net revenue of $323.3 million, a sequential increase of 1.3% and a constant currency increase of 2.6% [7][18] - For the full fiscal year, net revenue was $1.266 billion, down 1.5% on a reported basis and 1.7% on a constant currency basis [12][22] - Adjusted operating margin for Q4 was 21.4%, up from 20.9% year-over-year and 19.3% sequentially [19] - Full year adjusted operating margin was 19.5%, down 110 basis points compared to the previous year [23] - Adjusted net income for Q4 was $66.2 million, compared to $53.9 million in the same quarter last year [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added nine new logos and expanded 50 existing relationships in Q4 [8] - Full year revenue growth was driven by new logo additions and existing client expansions, despite headwinds from client-specific issues [15][22] - The company recorded $1.3 billion of short-term high-margin revenue in Q4 [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a loss of a large healthcare client and reductions in travel volumes, impacting revenue [12][18] - Online travel revenue was down to 3% of total company revenue, with no improvements baked into fiscal 2026 guidance [70][72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on digital transformation, AI, and data management, highlighted by the acquisition of Kippi.ai [9][10] - The strategy includes a tuck-in M&A approach to enhance technology and AI capabilities [11] - The company aims to leverage its industry-specific knowledge to create transformational AI-led solutions [10][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about client demand, noting a consistent theme of urgency in digital transformation and cost reduction [30][31] - The company has 90% visibility to the midpoint of its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026, projecting 9% growth [17][25] - Management acknowledged potential volatility in client behavior but emphasized the defensive nature of its business model [16][32] Other Important Information - The company generated strong free cash flow and engaged in aggressive share repurchases [13][24] - The attrition rate increased to 39%, up from 33% year-over-year [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Client demand and broader sentiment - Management noted that clients are increasingly focused on digital transformation and cost reduction, leading to accelerated deal closures [30][31] Question: Growth outlook for fiscal 2026 - The company expects a 7% to 11% growth range, with a 2% headwind from previous client ramp downs [33][34] Question: Cadence of growth and margin expectations - Management indicated that Q1 is typically soft, with expectations for sequential margin improvement throughout the year [40][41] Question: Characteristics of large deals - Both large deals are five-plus years in duration, focusing on mission-critical operations for clients [56][57] Question: Travel volume sensitivity - The company has a robust pipeline in travel and logistics, with no significant downside risk anticipated [67][70] Question: Hiring plans and geographic focus - The recent increase in headcount is aimed at ramping up for future growth, particularly in client-facing roles [82][84] Question: Use of GenAI across clients - The company has deployed GenAI solutions at around 20 clients, with expectations for increased revenue contribution from these assets [86][88]

二、前10名无限售条件股东持股情况 前十大流通股东累计持有： 30503.56万股，累计占流通股比： 47.31%，较上期变化： 2158.37万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) | 占总股本比 | 增减情况 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 例(%) | (万股) | | 中国中电国际信息服务有限公司 | 20265.02 | 31.43 | 新进 | | 中国电子进出口有限公司 | 3839.12 | 5.95 | 新进 | | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 1383.60 | 2.15 | 645.38 | | 吴安 | 1169.00 | 1.81 | -207.75 | | 北京君成私募基金管理有限公司-北京君成朱红六号私募证 券投资基金 | 768.90 | 1.19 | 新进 | | 诺安积极回报混合A | 754.11 | 1.17 | 新进 | | 北京君成私募基金管理有限公司-北京君成朱红二号私募证 券投资基金 | 751.61 | 1.17 | 新进 | | 南方中证500ETF | 575.14 | 0.89 | 新进 | | 章桂萍 | 507.40 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, the company reported net revenue of $323.3 million, a sequential increase of 1.3% and a constant currency increase of 2.6% [7][18] - For the full fiscal year, net revenue was $1.266 billion, down 1.5% on a reported basis and 1.7% on a constant currency basis [12][22] - Adjusted operating margin in Q4 was 21.4%, compared to 20.9% last year and 19.3% last quarter [19] - Adjusted net income for Q4 was $66.2 million, up from $53.9 million in the same quarter last year [21] - Full year adjusted net income was $208.7 million, down 4% year on year, while adjusted EPS was $4.55, representing an increase of 3% [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added nine new logos and expanded 50 existing relationships in Q4 [8] - The revenue decline in fiscal 2025 was attributed to customer-specific headwinds, including a large healthcare client loss and volume-based ramp downs in the online travel space [12][22] - The company recorded $1.3 billion of short-term high-margin revenue in Q4 [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced healthy demand for digitally led business transformation and cost reduction initiatives, which offset unfavorable currency movements [8] - The online travel segment accounted for only 3% of company revenue in Q4, indicating a significant reduction in this area [66] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the acquisition of Kippi.ai, enhancing its capabilities in data management and analytics [9] - The focus is on combining domain expertise with AI and data technologies to create new services and solutions [10] - The company aims to leverage its industry-specific knowledge to help clients harness data and technology for business transformation [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding client demand, noting that clients are accelerating their digital transformation journeys despite macroeconomic uncertainties [30] - The company begins fiscal 2026 with 90% visibility to its revenue guidance, projecting 9% growth on both a reported and constant currency basis [17] - Management highlighted that the business model remains fundamentally defensive and recurring in nature [17] Other Important Information - The company generated strong free cash flow and engaged in aggressive share repurchases during the fiscal year [13] - The company transitioned from IFRS to U.S. GAAP reporting and was included in the Russell 2000 and MSCI U.S. Small Cap indices [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about broader client sentiment and spending behavior? - Management noted that clients are cautiously optimistic and are accelerating closures for digital transformation projects, indicating a strong demand for cost reduction initiatives [30] Question: Can you provide insights on the growth outlook for fiscal 2026? - The company expects a growth range of 7% to 11% for fiscal 2026, with a 2% headwind from previous client ramp downs [25][33] Question: What are the characteristics of the large deals signed? - Both large deals are five-plus years in duration, focusing on mission-critical operations in banking and corporate travel management [54] Question: How is the hiring plan structured? - The recent increase in headcount is aimed at ramping up for large deals and future growth, with a focus on hiring high-quality resources [78] Question: How many clients are currently using GenAI? - The company has deployed GenAI solutions at around 20 clients, with expectations for increased revenue contribution from these technologies [80]

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling by 0.75%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.64%, and Nasdaq futures decreasing by 0.89% [1] - Technology stocks are experiencing a broad decline, with Apple down by 1.31%, Nvidia down by 1.68%, and Amazon down by 1.08% [1] Company-Specific News - Tesla's stock price target has been lowered by HSBC from $125 to $120, maintaining a "reduce" rating. The analyst cites aging product lineup, increased competition in China, the U.S., and Europe, and brand image issues as negative factors affecting Tesla's performance and future outlook. Tesla's stock is down by 1.71% [1] - Eli Lilly has filed lawsuits against four generic drug manufacturers for allegedly producing and selling unapproved generic versions of its weight loss and diabetes medications. A U.S. judge previously prohibited these manufacturers from producing such generics. Eli Lilly's stock is down by 0.64% [1] - Southwest Airlines announced plans to cut flights in the second half of the year due to declining domestic booking trends and will not reaffirm its profit guidance for 2025 and 2026. The stock is down by 2.82% [2] - IBM's stock fell by over 8% after the cancellation of 15 government contracts due to cost-cutting measures by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), despite reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue for Q1 2025 [2] - Morgan Stanley raised the stock price target for AT&T from $28 to $31, maintaining an "overweight" rating, following AT&T's Q1 2025 earnings report that exceeded expectations and the announcement of a $10 billion stock buyback plan [2] - Sanofi's Q1 revenue of $9.89 billion fell short of the expected $10.99 billion, leading to a decline in its stock by 1.04% [3] - Texas Instruments reported Q1 earnings per share of $1.28, surpassing the expected $1.06, with revenue of $4.1 billion exceeding the anticipated $3.91 billion. The stock rose by 4.04% [3]

4月23日晚间，北京银信长远科技股份有限公司（以下简称"银信科技（300231）"）披露2024年年度报 告。公司在年报中披露，在人工智能与数字经济蓬勃发展的当下，智算中心已成为新型基础设施的重要 组成部分，算力是驱动数字经济发展的核心动力。报告期内公司紧抓行业发展机遇，积极布局算力业 务，打造第二增长曲线，报告期内已落地实施若干大型智算中心项目建设与维护服务，2024年公司算力 项目合同签约总额4.68亿元，算力服务业务实现收入3048.58万元。 公司成立至今，一直专注于数据中心IT基础设施服务领域，公司深耕以银行为主的金融行业多年，在智 算行业政策持续加码、技术进步和市场需求等多重驱动下，依托自身在行业二十余年的技术积累、品牌 优势以及客户资源优势，通过整合现有技术资源和行业经验，全面深化业务布局，积极布局算力业务； 与此同时公司也将持续扩张市场版图，为各行业客户提供包括咨询服务、软件产品及实施服务、应用软 件开发、运营外包服务、系统集成及增值服务等多个领域的全方位信息化服务，打造"自主可控"国产化 IT服务的全市场版图。 与此同时，随着国家国产化和信创战略进程的有序推进，公司依托在行业内多年来积累的客 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a significant net profit decline of 64.68%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 27,504,278.75 yuan compared to 77,861,436.87 yuan in the previous year [3] - Operating revenue decreased by 10.03%, totaling 1,378,661,091.59 yuan, with the sales of computing equipment integration dropping by 23.42% [2] - Basic earnings per share fell by 66.67% to 0.32 yuan, reflecting the overall decline in profitability [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from computing equipment integration sales accounted for 57.34% of total revenue but saw a decline, while revenue from computing infrastructure services increased by 15.61% [2] - Digital value-added solution services experienced a growth of 42.44%, indicating a shift in business focus towards digital transformation [2] Cost and Expense Analysis - Total sales expenses decreased by 10.39% due to a drop in sales volume, while management expenses increased by 14.06% due to additional personnel and legal costs [5][6] - Research and development expenses rose by 6.65%, reflecting the company's commitment to maintaining competitiveness through innovation [5][6] Cash Flow Situation - The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly by 135.81%, reaching 198,996,791.74 yuan, indicating better cash collection from sales [10] - Investment activities saw a drastic decline in net cash flow, dropping by 860.81%, primarily due to increased capital expenditures on fixed assets [11] - Financing activities also experienced a 100.50% decrease in net cash flow, highlighting adjustments in funding and repayment strategies [12] Research and Development - R&D investment increased to 30,550,614.91 yuan, representing 2.22% of total revenue, up from 1.87% the previous year, emphasizing the company's focus on technological advancement [7][8] - The number of R&D personnel decreased by 12.24%, with a shift in the educational and age structure aimed at enhancing team efficiency [9] Management Compensation - The compensation for key executives increased, with the chairman receiving 836,500 yuan and the general manager 997,700 yuan, raising concerns about alignment with company performance amid declining profits [14]

Core Insights - Wuhan registered a total of 81,417 new enterprises from January to March 2025, representing an 83% year-on-year growth, ranking second among major cities in China [2] - The top five industries for new registrations in Wuhan are trade and retail, information technology, business services, cultural media, and construction, with trade and retail leading in both quantity and growth rate [2] - The city has implemented significant cost-reduction policies for businesses, lowering various costs by 43.5 billion yuan in 2024, which has created a favorable environment for new enterprise registrations [3] Economic Performance - Wuhan's GDP reached 21,106.23 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.2%, with fixed asset investment increasing by 3.1% and retail sales of consumer goods rising by 5.3% [5] - The rapid growth in economic indicators indicates a positive development trend, providing more market opportunities and boosting investor confidence in Wuhan [5] - The high-tech industry in Wuhan has also seen substantial growth, with over 16,000 high-tech enterprises and significant revenue increases in key sectors such as optoelectronic information and life health [5] Infrastructure and Transportation - Wuhan is a major transportation hub, being one of the four key railway hubs in China, with the highest passenger transfer volume and extensive railway connections [6] - The city has developed a dual-hub airport system with Tianhe International Airport and Ezhou Huahu International Airport, enhancing its logistics and transportation capabilities [6][9] - Recent infrastructure improvements, including the expansion of Tianhe Airport and the opening of new high-speed rail lines, have facilitated easier logistics and transportation for businesses [9] Government Support - The national government has provided various policy supports for Wuhan's development, positioning it as a central economic, technological innovation, and logistics hub in central China [8] - The government's focus on transportation infrastructure, including the development of a logistics circle with a 1,000-kilometer radius, aims to improve both passenger and freight efficiency [8] - Comprehensive support across economic, transportation, technology, and industry sectors has been crucial in driving the surge in new enterprise registrations in Wuhan [9]

Core Viewpoint - Aerospace Information (航天信息) is experiencing significant downward pressure on its 2024 performance, with a substantial decline in both revenue and net profit due to industry changes and unmet expectations in digital tax services [1][2]. Revenue Decline - The company reported a 33.93% year-on-year decrease in revenue to 8.309 billion yuan, a reduction of 4.266 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1]. - Revenue has declined for three consecutive years, with figures of 19.314 billion, 12.575 billion, and 8.309 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, resulting in a compound annual decline of 33.2% [2]. - Despite a 62.34% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q4 2024 to 2.532 billion yuan, the year-on-year revenue still saw a slight decline of 0.10% [2]. Business Segment Performance - The three main business segments all experienced double-digit declines: - Enterprise tax service revenue (42.7% of total) fell by 40.23%, with a gross margin drop of 8.99 percentage points to 33.56% [2]. - Smart business revenue decreased by 40.20%, impacted by extended payment cycles in smart city projects [2]. - Network information business revenue dropped by 12.97%, facing intense competition in the government information market [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's profitability has deteriorated, with the gross margin declining from 26.25% in 2022 to 23.81% in 2024, leading to a significant drop in profits [3]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items has been negative for two consecutive years, with a loss of 331 million yuan in 2024, indicating weakened core business capabilities [3]. - Operating cash flow turned negative, dropping from 875 million yuan in 2023 to -167 million yuan, highlighting liquidity pressures [3]. Shareholder Actions - Major shareholders, including various funds and ETFs, have reduced their holdings, signaling concerns about the company's future profitability and market outlook [4]. - The company's valuation is misaligned with its fundamentals, as the rapid decline in traditional tax control business and increased competition in digital tax services have raised concerns about future performance [4]. - The current price-to-sales ratio of 2.03 is higher than comparable companies, indicating potential valuation pressure if the company fails to meet profit forecasts [4].