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【广发宏观王丹】5月企业盈利增速出现调整的原因
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-06-27 15:06
Core Viewpoint - The revenue growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size has shown fluctuations, with a significant decline in profit margins, indicating a challenging economic environment and potential investment risks [1][9][10]. Revenue Growth - In the first five months of the year, the cumulative revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises was 2.7%, down from 3.2% in the previous period, with May's month-on-month growth dropping to 0.8% [7][8][10]. - The revenue growth experienced a rebound in January and February, followed by a decline in April and May, reflecting a typical economic nominal growth pattern with insufficient growth momentum [1][7]. Profit Margins - The profit margin change was more pronounced than revenue, with May's profit declining by 9.1%, the lowest since October of the previous year, leading to a cumulative profit decline of 1.1% for the first five months [9][10][11]. - The profit growth rate turned negative again in May after briefly turning positive in March, indicating a volatile profit environment [9][10]. Industry Performance Fastest Growing Industries - Equipment manufacturing, particularly in transportation equipment (56%), general equipment (10.6%), and specialized equipment (7.1%), showed significant profit growth [15][16]. - The aerospace sector, including aircraft manufacturing (120.7%) and related equipment, also reported high profit growth rates [15][16]. - Non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries saw profit increases of 41.7% and 9.8%, respectively, likely due to rising upstream prices and demand from emerging industries [15][16]. Slowest Growing Industries - The upstream mining sector, textile and apparel industries, and durable consumer goods (automobiles and furniture) experienced the lowest profit growth rates, with coal profits down by 50.6% and automotive profits down by 11.9% [19][20]. - The decline in profits for these sectors is attributed to falling commodity prices and weak domestic demand [19][20]. Profit Structure - The profit structure remains concentrated in midstream manufacturing, with equipment manufacturing accounting for 33.4% of incremental profits, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous year [20][24]. - Public utilities and raw materials industries also saw profit shares increase, indicating a shift in profit distribution within the industrial sector [20][24]. Inventory and Debt - As of the end of May, nominal inventory showed a slight decrease, while actual inventory rose by 6.8%, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [28]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises was 57.7%, with a slight increase year-on-year, reflecting a cautious approach to capital expenditure amid weak demand [30].
2.72万亿元,下降1.1%!最新解读来了→
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-06-27 08:48
数据显示,5月份当月,规模以上工业企业利润同比下降9.1%,增速较4月份下降12.1个百分点。广开首席产业研究院资深研究员马泓对《金融时报》记者 表示,这是去年10月以来的最大跌幅,表明当前工业企业经营压力有所增大。5月份工业企业利润下降受短期外部环境冲击、PPI(工业生产者出厂价格指 数)持续走低,以及有效内需不济等综合因素影响,工业企业经营效益实现全面恢复尚需时日。 招商证券首席宏观分析师张静静团队近日在研报中指出,从影响工业企业利润三因素拆解来看,PPI是现阶段制约工业企业利润增速回升的最主要因素。 在外需增速逐步回落的预期之下,投资、消费等内需抓手需要进一步回升支撑工业企业利润增速。 1至5月份规模以上工业企业利润同比虽然有所下降,但从营业收入扣减营业成本计算的毛利润角度看,规上工业企业毛利润同比增长1.1%,拉动全部规 上工业企业利润增长3.0个百分点。工业企业营收也持续保持增长态势,为企业下阶段盈利恢复创造有利条件。 国家统计局最新发布的数据显示,1至5月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额2.72万亿元,同比下降1.1%,增速较1至4月份下降2.5个百分点。营收 方面,1至5月份,规模以上工业企 ...