证券研究报告宏观简评 2026年01月09日 证券分析师：张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn 12月CPI同比0.8%，较11月上涨0.1个百分点，为近34个月最高值，修复进程持续。核心CPI同比1.2%， 与上一期持平。从结构看，CPI的回升仍主要由食品烟酒项和其他用品及服务项拉动，尤其是其他用品及 服务项内涵的黄金价格上涨。不含金价的核心同比0.83%，较上一期小幅放缓，且从历史数据看也不在显 著扩张区间。 12月PPI同比-1.9%，较11月降幅收窄0.3个百分点，其中0.2个百分点新涨价因素贡献，说明PPI有实 质性好转。12月PPI环比0.2%，高于近几年季节性均值的-0.2%，价格上涨动能持续，但2026年1月，PPI 翘尾因素将陡降至-1.5个百分点，必然导致PPI同比数据显著走低。然而，只要内生的修复进程能够延续， 这种统计层面的基数效应就不会改变PPI企稳回升的实质趋势。到二季度，随着翘尾因素的收窄，PPI有 望转正。我们强调价格真正的改善，应来自居民收入预期改善与终端需求增长驱动的"需求扩张-企业补 库-价格上涨 ...

《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》(下称"十五五"规划建议)，对我国 未来一段时期的经济社会发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画。未来5年，中国经济将迎来哪些新变化新机 遇？将为人们带来哪些新期待？本期"对话经济学家"邀请全国政协委员尹艳林进行深入阐释。 抢抓机遇提振发展信心 当然，"十五五"时期我国经济社会发展也面临一些挑战。比如，发展不平衡不充分问题仍然突出；有效 需求不足，国内大循环存在卡点堵点；新旧动能转换任务艰巨；农业农村现代化相对滞后；就业和居民 收入增长压力较大，民生保障存在短板弱项；人口结构变化给经济发展、社会治理等提出新课题；重点 领域还有风险隐患。但是，只要我们坚定信心，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，积极破解这些突出矛盾和 问题，集中力量办好自己的事，就能够化挑战为机遇，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 记者："十五五"规划建议提出，到2035年"人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平"。在您看来，这意 味着什么？ 尹艳林：到2035年我国人均国内生产总值(GDP)达到中等发达国家水平，这是基本实现社会主义现代化 的重要标志性指标。这要求"十五五"时期经济社会发展保持适当速度。对于 ...

江苏省委经济工作会议指出，要根据中央经济工作会议部署的重点任务，结合我省推动高质量发展的实 际，抓住关键、纲举目张地做好明年工作。在中央经济工作会议确定的明年经济工作重点任务中，"坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"是第一条任务，明确提出内需主导并把国内市场建设放在极其重要的 位置上。这表明在新的复杂的国内外政治经济形势下，扩大内需问题直接决定了国内经济可循环的程度 和力度，决定了内需在内循环主导外循环新发展格局形成中的地位和重要性。 习近平总书记在《扩大内需是战略之举》一文中指出，"总需求不足是当前经济运行面临的突出矛盾"。 中央经济工作会议强调，我国当前"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"。这些重要判断，既反映出扩大内需是一项 长期而艰巨的任务，也充分凸显了当前扩大有效需求、增强内循环的重要性和紧迫性。据此，省委经济 工作会议指出，要在深入挖掘内需潜力上下功夫，深入实施提振消费专项行动，谋划实施一批牵引性强 的重大项目。 从理论上看，扩大内需是指扩大国内有效需求，包括国内消费者对商品服务的有货币支付能力的需求和 各类主体对生产资料的有货币支付能力的投资需求两个部分。扩大国内有效需求对江苏经济的重要性， 是江苏经济运行中 ...

他强调，如何对冲房地产投资下降带来的影响，将是下一步需要重点解决的问题。 12月7日，由联办集团、和讯共同主办、财经中国会承办，主题为"寻找中国经济破局之路"的和讯财经 中国2025年会暨第23届财经风云榜在北京举行。邱晓华在大会演讲中表达了上述观点。 他分析了支撑经济实现目标的三大因素：一是宏观政策积极有效应对，包括积极的财政政策、适度宽松 的货币政策以及消费和投资政策，为经济爬坡过坎提供了有力支撑；二是出口表现超出预期，尽管年初 面临美国"关税战"压力，但企业和进口商的"双抢效应"使得对外经济保持正增长；三是国内市场韧性增 强。 同时，邱晓华也指出当前经济面临的两大突出问题：一是物价持续低位运行，生产价格和消费价格尚未 恢复到正常水平，制约投资、消费和企业效益；二是国内有效需求不足，其中投资需求出现改革开放40 多年来首次负增长，1至11月投资下降约2%，主要受房地产投资两位数下降拖累（房地产投资占总投资 的1/3）。若剔除房地产因素，投资仍保持正增长。 12月7日，国家统计局原局长、阳光保险集团顾问邱晓华在发言中指出，2025年作为"十四五"收官之 年，中国经济总体表现圆满。根据当前发展态势全年5%左右 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while macroeconomic policies have some effectiveness in stabilizing the economy, relying solely on these policies is insufficient to resolve the current economic challenges. It suggests that a multifaceted approach is necessary to stimulate demand and stabilize prices, particularly focusing on income stability, employment, and the real estate market [2][3][7]. Demand Analysis - The persistent low demand is attributed to insufficient effective demand rather than mere willingness to consume. Effective demand, a key concept in Keynesian economics, refers to demand backed by purchasing power, which is influenced by income levels and employment quality [4]. - The decline in disposable income is primarily due to high unemployment rates among the youth and deteriorating job quality, leading to reduced consumption capacity. This is exacerbated by falling real estate prices, which negatively impact household balance sheets and increase savings rates, further suppressing consumption [5]. Investment Demand - Investment demand is also weak, reflected in reduced corporate investments and declining local government investment capabilities. Factors such as market downturns, increased competition, and deteriorating financial conditions have led to a decrease in corporate investment appetite. Local governments face fiscal constraints due to reduced land sales and tax revenues, limiting their ability to invest [6]. Supply-Side Analysis - The article highlights that overcapacity is a significant issue, driven by the phenomenon of "involution," which indicates a lack of effective market clearing mechanisms. This results in persistent overcapacity and price declines, as the market fails to eliminate excess supply effectively [6][10]. Policy Recommendations - To stabilize prices, the article suggests that income stability is crucial, which in turn relies on stable employment and robust corporate performance. It advocates for a shift in fiscal policy focus from "heavy investment" to "heavy consumption," emphasizing direct support for consumer spending and social security for low-income groups [7]. - The stabilization of the real estate market is deemed essential, as falling property prices adversely affect the financial health of households, businesses, and local governments. The article calls for proactive policies to support the real estate sector to restore economic balance [8]. Market Clearing Mechanism - The article stresses the need to reconstruct the market clearing mechanism to address the issues of overcapacity and "involution." This involves ensuring that enterprises can exit the market effectively, particularly state-owned enterprises that may be propped up by soft budget constraints [10][12]. - It suggests that reforms should include clarifying property rights for state-owned enterprises, aligning local government fiscal responsibilities, and introducing competition policies to facilitate market entry and exit [12]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while expansionary policies can mitigate short-term shocks, structural reforms are essential for long-term stability. It emphasizes the importance of restoring supply-demand balance and achieving a moderate price increase to support potential economic growth [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the persistent low inflation and deflationary pressures in China's economy, highlighting the need for targeted macroeconomic policies to address the underlying issues of insufficient effective demand and overcapacity [4][5][6]. Demand Analysis - Insufficient effective demand is primarily characterized by a lack of consumption demand with purchasing power, which is influenced by stagnant or declining income levels [5]. - The main source of household income is wage income, which has been negatively impacted by high youth unemployment rates and declining job quality [5]. - The decline in real estate prices has worsened household balance sheets, leading to increased savings rates and suppressed consumption [5][6]. Investment Demand - Investment demand is weak, reflected in reduced corporate investments and declining local government investment capabilities [6]. - Corporate revenue has been declining due to market sluggishness and increased competition, leading to lower investment demand [6]. - Local governments face fiscal constraints due to reduced land sales and related tax revenues, further limiting their investment capacity [6]. Supply Analysis - The current overcapacity issue is exacerbated by the "involution" phenomenon, which reflects a lack of effective market clearing mechanisms [6][7]. - The failure of the price clearing mechanism has resulted in persistent overcapacity, as firms are not incentivized to exit the market despite losses [7][9]. Policy Recommendations - To stabilize prices, it is essential to stabilize income, which hinges on employment and corporate stability [7]. - The focus of fiscal policy should shift from "heavy investment" to "heavy consumption," emphasizing direct support for consumer spending [7]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is crucial, as its decline negatively impacts the balance sheets of households, businesses, and local governments [8]. - Addressing the "involution" issue requires reconstructing market clearing mechanisms to ensure that supply and demand can adjust effectively [9][10]. Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are necessary to enhance the market exit mechanisms for inefficient firms, particularly state-owned enterprises [10]. - The alignment of fiscal powers and responsibilities at the local government level is critical to prevent the maintenance of inefficient capacities [10]. - Introducing competition policies across various sectors will ensure equal access and exit for all market participants [10].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is currently facing challenges, but misleading information and scams are distorting the perception of its health, particularly regarding price drops in major cities [1][8][21] Group 1: Market Analysis - A comprehensive analysis of short videos revealed claims of property price drops in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen ranging from 40% to 73, which were found to be fabricated for views [1][8] - The actual price fluctuations for normal residential properties in these cities over the past year were much lower, with declines of 5% to 9% in Beijing, 3% to 15% in Shanghai, 8% to 12% in Guangzhou, and 2.4% to 6.7% in Shenzhen [8][21] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported minor changes in new and second-hand housing prices, indicating that the market is not experiencing a collapse as suggested by some media [8][21] Group 2: Types of Scams - Five major scams were identified, including the apartment price drop scam, which misrepresents the stability of apartment prices while highlighting exaggerated claims of price drops [1][2] - The "old and dilapidated" property price drop scam involved specific cases where properties with certain characteristics were sold at lower prices, misleading consumers about the overall market trend [4][21] - Real estate agents were found to engage in deceptive practices, such as creating false urgency and manipulating sellers into lowering prices, driven by a commission-based model [6][21] Group 3: Key Figures and Events - Wang Jianlin and Dalian Wanda Group have been in the spotlight due to financial difficulties, including restrictions on high consumption linked to economic disputes [13][15] - The group's debt situation has escalated, with over 70 billion yuan in total execution amounts across various companies, raising concerns about its financial stability [13][15] - Wang Jianlin's commitment to managing the company's debts has garnered respect, contrasting with the lifestyle of his son, Wang Sicong, who remains financially independent despite the family's challenges [17][19] Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to undergo further differentiation, with core areas in first and second-tier cities likely to maintain value, while suburban and third-tier cities face downward pressure [21] - The current market environment necessitates a shift in perspective for potential buyers, emphasizing the importance of assessing personal purchasing power and focusing on properties with residential value [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of economic thought through paradigm shifts and integrations, emphasizing that each theoretical change in economics occurs through these two stages, which is distinct from the natural sciences [19]. Group 1: Paradigm Shifts in Economic Thought - The first paradigm shift in economics occurred in the 1770s, marked by the publication of Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" in 1776, which transitioned the focus from "wealth management" to "wealth production" [20]. - The second paradigm shift took place in the 1870s with the rise of the marginal utility school, which challenged the classical economics' labor theory of value and introduced the "subjective value" paradigm [43]. Group 2: Paradigm Integrations in Economic Thought - The first paradigm integration occurred in the 1840s with John Stuart Mill's "Principles of Political Economy," which combined the "wealth management" and "wealth production" paradigms into a complementary theoretical framework [32]. - The second paradigm integration happened in the late 19th century with Alfred Marshall's "Principles of Economics," which synthesized classical economics' "objective value" and the marginal utility school's "subjective value" into what is known as "neoclassical economics" [51][52].

Group 1 - The core task remains to boost effective demand, highlighting the increasing necessity for stable growth policies in the fourth quarter [1][8] - The economic growth rate for China in the first half of the year was 5.3%, achieved amidst challenges such as global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1][2] - The August data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a narrowing decline in various economic indicators compared to July, suggesting a potential for policy intervention [2][3] Group 2 - The social financing scale increased by 25,693 billion yuan in August, but this represents a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan, indicating weak credit demand [3][4] - Government bond financing has decreased, and the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies needs to be supported in key quarters and months [5][6] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with infrastructure investment growing by 2% and real estate investment declining by 12.9% [6][7] Group 3 - The investment sentiment among enterprises remains subdued, correlating with the slow growth in fixed asset investment observed this year [4][6] - The retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with certain sectors like sports and home appliances performing well [7][8] - The necessity for structural monetary policies is increasing, with potential measures including the restart of government bond purchases to inject medium to long-term liquidity [8]

Group 1 - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is "correction" rather than "stimulation," aiming to reshape the logic of industrial competition [2][6] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on prices is structural and mild, with future price trends dependent on the strength of demand recovery and the pace of policy coordination [2][6] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price disorderly competition in certain sectors rather than driving up prices, as the fundamental factor determining prices remains supply and demand [2][3] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the year, signals of the "anti-involution" policy have been continuously reinforced, with various measures taken to address "involution-style" competition [3] - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law prohibits selling goods below cost, providing a legal basis for combating "involution-style" competition [3] - Recent data shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has maintained a low level of -3.6% year-on-year in July, but the month-on-month decline has narrowed, indicating some stabilization in industrial prices [4] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains weak overall, but the core CPI has rebounded for three consecutive months, benefiting from reduced price wars in the automotive and home appliance sectors [4] - The improvement in PPI is primarily seen in upstream raw materials and industrial products, which have a low direct correlation with consumer spending [5] - The transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI remains ineffective, as insufficient terminal consumer demand limits companies' pricing power [5]