□本报记者 魏昭宇 看好中游周期制造业 谈及看好的市场方向，汇丰晋信基金股票研究总监、基金经理闵良超表示，过去3—4年做资产配置的时 候，更重视两端的资产，一端是以银行为代表的高分红、高股息资产；一端是以人工智能（AI）为代 表与海外产业周期相关的资产，这类资产的共性是与内需弱相关。"从去年下半年开始，我们更偏好'纺 锤型'策略。这意味着，我们对于两端的资产会相对看淡，但是对中间环节的资产，则会相对看多。" 闵良超进一步表示："中间环节是以中游的周期制造业为主，其面临估值低、持仓低、关注度低的境 况。过去，中间环节承压，很重要的原因来自于供给面，而不是来自需求面。举例来说，某行业过去五 年需求累计增长不到20%，但供给的增长可能达到50%。但我们认为，当前基本面发生了较大变化，展 望未来五年，假设需求还是20%的增长，供给的增速有望远远小于20%，企业业绩有望慢慢修复。所以 在当前，'纺锤型'策略的性价比更高。" 摩根资产管理中国策略专家俞一奇表示，随着2025年"反内卷"政策的实施，一些已面临产能压力的行 业，其新增投资已出现明显放缓，这一变化有望推动行业供需关系趋向平衡。尽管供给端投资的回落可 能些许拖累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical industries typically exhibit a clear competitive landscape and stable valuation systems, allowing for reverse layout based on fundamental trends and valuation levels [1] Group 1: Investment Focus - Key areas of focus under the cyclical perspective include upstream resource sectors, midstream cyclical manufacturing sectors, strong cyclical segments within consumption, and the financial services industry, with attention to fundamental rhythm and implied risk-return [1] - When the implied returns of dividend strategies are attractive, the focus should be on mature industries with stable market positions and cash flows, particularly leading companies in consumer goods and manufacturing [1] - Additionally, there is an emphasis on "efficiency-type" companies within large industries, actively seeking "1-N" growth opportunities for enterprises [1]