钛媒体App 2月9日消息，近期，汇丰晋信基金、鑫元基金、光大保德信基金、摩根资产管理、瑞士百达 资产管理等多家资管机构对2026年的权益市场进行了展望。有机构表示，企业业绩修复弹性或成为2026 年的亮点。尽管全球宏观波动率上升，但国内尾部风险收敛与股债性价比指标进入合理区间，使得中国 权益资产吸引力凸显。此外，部分机构推出的策略呈现新特征：从过去聚焦高股息与科技两端，转 向"纺锤型"配置，中游周期制造业或成为关注对象。（中证报） ...

近期，汇丰晋信基金、鑫元基金、光大保德信基金、摩根资产管理、瑞士百达资产管理等多家资管 机构对2026年的权益市场进行了展望。 有机构表示，企业业绩修复弹性或成为2026年的亮点。尽管全球宏观波动率上升，但国内尾部风险 收敛与股债性价比指标进入合理区间，使得中国权益资产吸引力凸显。此外，部分机构推出的策略呈现 新特征：从过去聚焦高股息与科技两端，转向"纺锤型"配置，中游周期制造业或成为关注对象。 俞一奇认为，从内部环境看，当前国内经济的尾部风险正逐渐收敛，国内宏观波动率正在降低。然 而与国内相反，全球宏观波动率却有所上升。这主要源于两方面，一是地缘局势的影响，二是全球主要 经济体普遍处于债务的后周期阶段，许多国家财政面临较大压力，从而推升了全球层面的宏观不确定 性。宏观波动率此消彼长，进一步提升了中国权益资产的吸引力。 权益资产仍有相对估值优势 从资金面的角度分析，光大保德信基金认为，当前融资余额/全A市值升至2015年来的次高水平，两 融杠杆资金规模创下历史新高。从数据上看，从2025年8月底开始，杠杆提升后赚钱效应却逐渐减弱， 这一定程度上会抑制杠杆资金的入市强度，后续杠杆资金的发力更多依赖市场上行空间。 ...

02基金新闻 ...

□本报记者 魏昭宇 看好中游周期制造业 谈及看好的市场方向，汇丰晋信基金股票研究总监、基金经理闵良超表示，过去3—4年做资产配置的时 候，更重视两端的资产，一端是以银行为代表的高分红、高股息资产；一端是以人工智能（AI）为代 表与海外产业周期相关的资产，这类资产的共性是与内需弱相关。"从去年下半年开始，我们更偏好'纺 锤型'策略。这意味着，我们对于两端的资产会相对看淡，但是对中间环节的资产，则会相对看多。" 闵良超进一步表示："中间环节是以中游的周期制造业为主，其面临估值低、持仓低、关注度低的境 况。过去，中间环节承压，很重要的原因来自于供给面，而不是来自需求面。举例来说，某行业过去五 年需求累计增长不到20%，但供给的增长可能达到50%。但我们认为，当前基本面发生了较大变化，展 望未来五年，假设需求还是20%的增长，供给的增速有望远远小于20%，企业业绩有望慢慢修复。所以 在当前，'纺锤型'策略的性价比更高。" 摩根资产管理中国策略专家俞一奇表示，随着2025年"反内卷"政策的实施，一些已面临产能压力的行 业，其新增投资已出现明显放缓，这一变化有望推动行业供需关系趋向平衡。尽管供给端投资的回落可 能些许拖累 ...

Global Macro - The market is at the beginning of an artificial intelligence super cycle and an early stage of a commodities super cycle, with strong investment inflows expected in the US [2] - Current labor productivity in the US is at 2%, with estimates suggesting AI could increase productivity by 0.2% to 4.5%, indicating potential stock price increases but also market volatility as perceptions of AI benefits evolve [2] - Credit markets appear solid, but spreads are near historical lows; companies' balance sheets remain strong despite global economic tensions [2] Gold Investment - In 2026, gold should be viewed more as a risk hedging tool rather than a driver of absolute returns [3] Asian Bonds - Investment-grade bonds are seen as a relatively high-value choice in the current environment, with Asian investment-grade bond yields similar to global counterparts but with shorter durations and lower interest rate sensitivity [4] - The Asian high-yield bond market offers attractive yields above 8%, and the credit cycle may be at a turning point with a reduction in default trends [4] Asian Equities - China and South Korea are expected to show resilience and growth potential, supported by policy developments and corporate earnings expectations, while India may recover after adjustments [5][6] - The Korean market benefits from strong demand for AI-related investments and supportive government policies [5] Hong Kong Stock Strategy - Foreign investment interest in Chinese assets is increasing, with Hong Kong stocks showing attractive valuations despite potential market fluctuations [7] - The strategy focuses on sector selection and investment timing, acknowledging inherent risks [7] A-Share Strategy - A "spindle" strategy is favored, focusing on mid-cycle manufacturing assets while being cautious about high-dividend and AI-related assets [8] - The current environment shows low valuations and low attention for many cyclical industries, with potential for significant profit recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve [9] Pharmaceutical Sector - Confidence in the pharmaceutical sector is growing, particularly in innovative drugs, low-valuation segments like medical devices, and specific stock opportunities with strong growth potential [11]