站在2026年的开端，我们正置身于中国资本市场一个由规模扩张迈向质量跃升的全新周期。刚刚过去的2025年，我们见证了A股总市值历史性突破100万 亿元大关，并稳步攀升至约123万亿元；见证了上证指数从年初的3300点附近拾级而上，一度冲破4000点，年涨幅接近20%，创下近六年最佳表现；更见 证了市场成交额首次突破400万亿元，日均成交额较2024年放量超过60%，显示出充沛的流动性与高涨的参与热情。 坚定"耐心资本"理念，深耕产业周期 过去一年，粤开证券坚定不移地践行"耐心资本"战略，聚焦于具有关键技术壁垒和商业化潜力的硬科技企业。我们注意到，2025年新上市企业中超过九成 为高新技术企业，其中科创板、创业板为一批尚未盈利的"硬科技"企业敞开了大门，已有50余家此类企业成功上市。这正与我们的投资逻辑高度契合。 作为植根于广州开发区、黄埔区的国资控股券商，我们依托深厚的产业生态优势，前瞻性地布局商业航天、低空经济、生物医药等新质生产力。2025年， 我们投资了小鹏汇天、中科宇航、星河动力、蓝星光域等一批战略性科创企业，以实际行动巩固在硬科技领域的版图。此外，我们的私募股权管理规模突 破百亿元，致力于成为推动国 ...

□本报记者 魏昭宇 看好中游周期制造业 谈及看好的市场方向，汇丰晋信基金股票研究总监、基金经理闵良超表示，过去3—4年做资产配置的时 候，更重视两端的资产，一端是以银行为代表的高分红、高股息资产；一端是以人工智能（AI）为代 表与海外产业周期相关的资产，这类资产的共性是与内需弱相关。"从去年下半年开始，我们更偏好'纺 锤型'策略。这意味着，我们对于两端的资产会相对看淡，但是对中间环节的资产，则会相对看多。" 闵良超进一步表示："中间环节是以中游的周期制造业为主，其面临估值低、持仓低、关注度低的境 况。过去，中间环节承压，很重要的原因来自于供给面，而不是来自需求面。举例来说，某行业过去五 年需求累计增长不到20%，但供给的增长可能达到50%。但我们认为，当前基本面发生了较大变化，展 望未来五年，假设需求还是20%的增长，供给的增速有望远远小于20%，企业业绩有望慢慢修复。所以 在当前，'纺锤型'策略的性价比更高。" 摩根资产管理中国策略专家俞一奇表示，随着2025年"反内卷"政策的实施，一些已面临产能压力的行 业，其新增投资已出现明显放缓，这一变化有望推动行业供需关系趋向平衡。尽管供给端投资的回落可 能些许拖累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and portfolio adjustments of the Jiashi Value Select Equity Fund managed by Tan Li, indicating a shift in top holdings and a focus on commodity prices and market dynamics in the context of investment strategies. Group 1: Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q4 2025, the top ten holdings of the Jiashi Value Select Equity Fund include Zijin Mining, Hualu Hengsheng, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and others, with notable new entries being Ninebot and Binjiang Group, while Chengdu Bank exited the top ten [1][2]. - The fund's stock position was reported at 91.88% at the end of Q4 [2]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The net asset value per share for Jiashi Value Select Equity A was 2.2893 yuan, with a growth rate of -0.32%, while the C share had a net asset value of 2.2825 yuan and a growth rate of -0.48%, against a benchmark return of -2.06% [3]. Group 3: Market Analysis - In Q4, there was a significant increase in the prices of gold and industrial metals, influenced by factors such as resource nationalism and strategic metal reserves in developed countries, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [3]. - The A-share market saw a rebound in Q3 2024 and a substantial rise in Q3 2025, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market achieving around 50% gains year-to-date, driven by a strong technology narrative and high market risk appetite [4]. - The report indicates a structural adjustment in the portfolio, with increased allocation to non-ferrous metals and a realization of profits in precious metals, while maintaining overall allocation ratios [4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Macro Industry**: The discussion centers around the technology sector, particularly the impact of AI on the macroeconomic landscape in the U.S. and China, as well as investment opportunities in various sub-sectors like commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics [1][3][17][19]. Core Insights and Arguments AI and Economic Growth - AI capital expenditures are projected to drive U.S. economic growth, with major tech companies expected to spend approximately $350 billion to $360 billion by 2025, accounting for about 1% of GDP and growing at a rate of 60%-70% [1][3]. - The contribution of AI to macroeconomic growth is estimated to be around 0.6%-0.7% [1][3]. - By 2026, capital expenditures from the top five U.S. tech companies are expected to reach $500 billion to $510 billion, indicating sustained investment-driven growth, albeit at a potentially slower pace [3][5]. AI's Impact on Various Industries - AI technology is having a comprehensive impact on the semiconductor industry, leading to price increases in mature processes and the rise of domestic computing power [1][12][14]. - The storage sector is also benefiting from AI, with new technologies driving demand for NAND and DRAM [11][12]. - In the commercial aerospace sector, investment opportunities are concentrated in rocket assembly, core aerospace engines, and satellite payloads, with companies like BoLite and Zhenlei Technology highlighted as key players [1][17]. Concerns and Risks - There are growing concerns about a potential bubble in the AI sector, particularly as discussions around the transition from short-term to long-term economic benefits intensify [6][9][13]. - The stability of macroeconomic policies is crucial to ensure a smooth transition and to mitigate risks associated with the AI narrative [5][6]. China's Technological Landscape - China has surpassed Japan in R&D spending, becoming the second-largest globally, and leads in PCT patent applications, indicating significant advancements in technology [8][7]. - However, the impact of these advancements on labor productivity remains limited, primarily reflecting in capital markets rather than the real economy [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - The humanoid robotics industry is transitioning from component manufacturing to key assembly stages, with companies in Tesla's supply chain, such as Sanhua and Topband, being noteworthy [2][20][21]. - Investment opportunities in the commercial aviation sector are expected to rise due to increased domestic production capabilities, particularly in engine manufacturing [18]. - AI applications in retail are opening new growth avenues, with companies leveraging AI tools to enhance operational efficiency and consumer engagement [25]. - The development of AI glasses is anticipated to grow significantly, with a projected increase in global shipments and sales exceeding 50% over the next five years [26]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic regarding the future of AI and its integration into various industries, with a focus on the importance of stable macroeconomic policies and the potential for significant technological advancements to drive productivity and economic growth [15][16].

Group 1: AI and Technology Developments - The launch of DeepSeek-R1 in January 2025 has become a core investment theme, driving significant capital market momentum and shifting the focus from performance competition to cost, efficiency, and commercialization capabilities in the AI sector [2] - The AI industry has seen a concentration of funds towards leading companies, with notable stock performances such as the "Yi Zhong Tian" combination, which saw gains exceeding 450% [2] - The human-robotics sector has entered a commercialized phase, with over 46 billion yuan in total orders and more than 20,000 units sold, indicating a shift from conceptual collaborations to practical applications [4][5] Group 2: Film and Entertainment Industry - The film "Nezha 2" achieved a record-breaking box office of 15.4 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone for the Chinese animation industry and contributing to a total annual box office of over 50 billion yuan, a 75 billion yuan increase from 2024 [3] - The success of "Nezha 2" and other animated films reflects the growing market potential for domestic animation, providing a reference for future creative and investment strategies in the film industry [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The intense competition in the food delivery industry, initiated by JD's entry with a no-commission model, has led to significant market disruptions and a series of subsidy wars among major platforms, resulting in a 141 billion yuan loss for Meituan's core local business despite record user numbers [7] - Regulatory bodies have intervened to address the chaotic competition, leading to commitments from major platforms to improve service quality and return to rational development [7] Group 4: Capital Market Trends - The A-share market has seen a record high in cash dividends, totaling 2.61 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase in companies' willingness to return profits to shareholders and enhancing market resilience [11] - The emergence of "GPU dual heroes" in the capital market, with multiple domestic GPU companies going public, signifies a milestone for the domestic AI chip industry and a shift towards self-sufficiency [10] Group 5: Industry Regulation and Quality Improvement - The lithium battery supply chain has experienced a price recovery due to regulatory efforts to combat "involution" competition, with lithium carbonate futures seeing significant price increases [12] - The charging battery industry is transitioning to a more orderly development phase following regulatory changes and recalls by major brands, addressing issues of safety and compliance [13]

Core Insights - The 2025 public fund ranking battle reveals dual answers to the debate between active and passive investment strategies, with significant returns from both types of funds [1][4] - Active funds achieved over 231% annual returns, while passive funds, particularly in the communication and AI sectors, saw returns of 125.7% [1][6] Group 1: Performance of Funds - As of December 22, 2025, 93.44% of the 13,530 public funds reported positive returns, contrasting sharply with the previous three years of market downturns [3] - Active equity funds had an average return of 29.38%, with 95.75% of them showing positive returns, and 66 funds exceeding 100% returns [3][4] - Passive index funds also performed well, with an average return of 23.68% and 91.41% achieving positive returns, including 11 funds with returns over 100% [3][4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Active funds focused on deep research and concentrated holdings to achieve alpha returns, while passive funds capitalized on high-growth thematic indices [4][5] - The top-performing active funds were heavily invested in the technology sector, particularly in AI and communication industries, with significant concentration in core stocks [5][6] - The communication equipment ETF led passive funds with a 125.7% annual increase, outperforming many actively managed products [6] Group 3: Market Trends and Changes - The ETF market experienced historic growth, with total assets increasing from approximately 3.73 trillion yuan to about 5.88 trillion yuan, marking a 58% growth rate [7] - New regulations in 2025 require performance benchmarks to accurately reflect investment strategies, aiming to enhance transparency and reduce ranking manipulation [7] - The market structure is evolving, pushing active fund managers to focus on in-depth research within their expertise while ETFs serve as efficient tools for expressing specific industry trends [7][8] Group 4: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly divided in their choices, with some pursuing high-risk, high-reward active funds while others prefer diversified exposure through ETFs [8][9] - Industry experts suggest a cautious approach for ordinary investors, emphasizing the importance of evaluating funds based on long-term performance and risk metrics rather than short-term gains [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for government bonds is bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the bond market turned from bullish to bearish, mainly due to the reversal of the macro - narrative. Looking ahead to 2026, inflation will moderately rebound, the equity market will continue to suppress bonds, the bond market will show a bearish steepening trend, and the futures rhythm will be similar to an "M" shape. Strategies such as short - selling on rallies, short - hedging, and steepening the curve are recommended [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 National Debt Trend Review - The bond market turned bearish in 2025, with the whole - year market divided into five stages. The change in the macro - narrative was the core reason for the bear market [14][21] - The yield curve first flattened and then steepened. The basis spread had a relatively low central level overall, with a phased increase during market adjustments [17][18] 3.2 Policy Foundation of the Positive Macro - Narrative: Dual - Circulation Strategy 3.2.1 Policy Ideas of the Dual - Circulation Strategy - Proposed in 2020 to cope with economic challenges, it aims to optimize supply, improve corporate profits, and gradually form stable growth and moderate inflation through measures like developing technology, anti - involution, investing in people, and promoting "Belt and Road" and RMB trade [24][27][31] 3.2.2 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Ideas under the Dual - Circulation Strategy - Fiscal policy is generally positive but will increase moderately and make decisions based on the situation. Fiscal expenditure is shifting towards high - tech industries, people's livelihood, and resolving local government hidden debts [38][40] - Monetary policy will actively cooperate with fiscal policy, maintaining a low - interest - rate environment cautiously, gradually shifting to asset - price transmission, and building a RMB sovereign credit system [40][43] 3.3 Outlook for 2026: Moderate Rebound in Inflation 3.3.1 Supply - side Clearance: De - investment and De - capacity - In 2026, anti - involution policies will expand. The effectiveness of these policies is already visible, and manufacturing investment growth will have a low central level, optimized structure, and a front - low and back - high rhythm [45][48][49] 3.3.2 Real Estate Still a Drag, but Year - on - Year Decline in Data Expected to Narrow - Real estate data weakened again in 2025. Policy thinking is changing, with long - term transformation as the main focus and short - term support as a supplement. Real estate data may still weaken month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline is expected to narrow [50][53][57] 3.3.3 External Demand is the Most Important Force to Offset Real Estate - China's export growth exceeded expectations in 2025. In 2026, global terminal demand is relatively strong, and emerging demand is booming. The export growth rate is expected to remain high, with ASEAN, the EU, and Africa continuing to drive exports [58][62][65] 3.3.4 Overseas Inflation will Moderately Transmit to the Domestic Market - Overseas inflation has an upward risk, but the transmission to the domestic market is moderate. Overall, domestic prices have the impetus to rise moderately in 2026, and the bond market will remain weak [66][71][72] 3.4 The Equity Market will Continue to Suppress Bonds 3.4.1 The Logic of the Technology Narrative is Hard to Be Falsified in the Short Term - The trading theme may shift to Sino - US technological competition in 2026. The technology narrative is difficult to be falsified, and the bull market in Chinese technology stocks is expected to continue [74][76][77] 3.4.2 The Stock Market is Likely to Remain in a Bull Market in 2026 - The stock market is expected to shift from the first stage (fund - driven) to the second stage (inflation and profit - driven) in 2026. With the weakening of the US dollar index, overseas funds will flow back, and policy support will continue, so the bull market is likely to continue, suppressing the bond market [78][80][86] 3.5 The Bond Market will Show a Bearish Steepening Trend, and the Futures Rhythm will be Similar to an "M" Shape 3.5.1 Short - term Bonds are Relatively Stable, Determined by Monetary Policy and Funds - Monetary policy in 2026 will remain "moderately loose," with one expected interest rate cut of 10BP and one reserve requirement ratio cut of 50BP. Short - term bond interest rates are expected to be relatively stable, with the 1Y Treasury bond interest rate centered around 1.3% [90][91][94] 3.5.2 Long - term Bonds Face Supply - Demand Imbalance, and the Curve will Steepen with Volatility - Long - term bonds are more sensitive to inflation and the stock market. The supply - demand imbalance in the long - term bond market is obvious. The 10Y Treasury bond interest rate is expected to reach a high of around 2.0%, and the 30Y Treasury bond interest rate may reach a high of 2.5% - 2.6% [95][98][113] 3.5.3 Treasury Bond Futures will have a Winding Trend, Similar to an "M" Shape - The trend of the bond market in 2026 will be winding. It is expected to strengthen from the beginning of the year to before the Spring Festival, decline from after the Spring Festival to the end of Q2 with possible rebounds due to interest rate cuts, have increased volatility in Q3 with a slowing pace of interest rate increase, and show an uncertain trend in Q4, generally similar to an "M" shape [114][115][116] 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Short - sell Treasury bond futures on rallies [119] - Spot - futures strategy: Pay high attention to short - hedging strategies [120] - Curve strategy: Pay attention to strategies such as steepening the 10Y - 1Y curve and going long on 3T and short on TL [121]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector in China is experiencing unprecedented investment appeal and development potential due to continuous innovation and an improving policy environment [1] Group 1: Key Variables Driving Technology Narrative - Three key variables are identified as driving the deepening of the "technology narrative": 1. Continuous enhancement of China's technological capabilities with significant breakthroughs in areas such as domestic models, computing power, and advanced semiconductor processes [2] 2. Ongoing domestic policy support for the technology sector, including guidance for technological innovation and financing for tech companies [2] 3. Continuous improvement in talent pool, including the maturation of AI algorithm personnel and the engineer dividend accompanying generational technological advancements [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - Despite solid fundamentals in the technology sector, there has been significant divergence in individual stock performance. Short-term fluctuations should not overly concern investors, as the fundamentals and industry development remain resilient [2] - The market is currently experiencing adjustments due to year-end switching and performance gaps, but this does not affect the long-term investment value in technology [2] Group 3: Identifying New Opportunities Amidst Volatility - To uncover "high-low switching" opportunities in the technology sector, two considerations are emphasized: 1. Analyzing structural differentiation in the industry to enhance investment success rates, focusing on low-priced assets in conjunction with industry changes [4] 2. Evaluating market expectations to identify discrepancies in industry forecasts, with a focus on AI and the rise of Chinese technology, particularly in computing power and storage [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Research Framework - The investment strategy in the technology sector should be characterized by high volatility and rapid iteration. A combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches is recommended to capture industry development opportunities [5] - Key factors for stock selection include market space, competitive landscape, business model, management, growth potential, and market expectations [5] - A comprehensive research training system, "3+3+3," is established to enhance research capabilities and investment management efficiency within the company [6] Group 5: Asset Allocation and Product Selection - Investors are advised to assess expected returns and risk tolerance, as the technology sector is inherently high-volatility. Balancing risk and return is crucial [7] - Emphasis is placed on understanding industry changes to improve investment success rates, with a recommendation to consider low-volatility assets for portfolio balance [7] - For product selection, investors should evaluate major holdings, changes, fund manager experience and style, and quarterly reports to align with personal risk-return profiles and industry knowledge [7]

Group 1 - The Southern Finance Forum 2025, themed "The Power of Consensus - Innovation Surge and China's Asset Revaluation," was held on December 5-6, 2023, at the Southern Finance Building [1] - The Southern Finance Building, which officially opened on November 6, 2023, will permanently host the Southern Finance Forum, enhancing the group's goal to build a globally influential financial media and information service institution [3] - Keynote speeches at the forum addressed macroeconomic conditions, capital market development, and technological advancements, with notable speakers including Liu Shijun and Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Xing Ziqiang [3] Group 2 - Liu Shijun emphasized three advantages of the Chinese economy: the potential for catching up through service sector development, a new technology revolution focused on digital and green technologies, and the advantage of a super-large market economy [3] - Xing Ziqiang discussed China's dual development narrative, highlighting the country's technological self-reliance and social welfare, expressing confidence in China's competitive edge in the AI sector compared to the U.S. [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is concluding, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" is being formulated, with a focus on enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of the capital market as a core theme for reform [4] Group 3 - Overseas institutional guests expressed confidence in the long-term investment value of Chinese assets, noting the micro-vitality of Chinese enterprises in globalization, digitalization, and green transformation [5] - The New York Stock Exchange's China head mentioned that many investors are beginning to reassess the value of Chinese tech stocks, with significant overseas and long-term capital returning to Chinese concept stocks [5]

Market Overview - On December 2, the stock market experienced a decline, with the CSI All A Shares index falling by 0.64% and a trading volume of 1.61 trillion yuan, down 282.2 billion yuan from the previous day[1] - The Hong Kong market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.24% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.37%[1] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 4.11 billion HKD, with Meituan, Xiaomi, and Alibaba receiving net inflows of 0.592 billion, 0.380 billion, and 0.357 billion HKD respectively, while Tencent experienced a net outflow of 0.381 billion HKD[1] Trading Sentiment - Market trading remains subdued, with the trading volume around 1.6 trillion yuan, marking a low since August[2] - Since November 14, there has been a significant contradiction between market volume and price, with the trading volume failing to exceed 2 trillion yuan or drop below 1.5 trillion yuan[2] - Investors are waiting for clearer market signals before making decisions, leading to a continuation of the current oscillating market state[2] Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent recovery in the market has been driven by a "technology narrative," but this narrative is losing strength, prompting some funds to shift focus towards consumption sectors in anticipation of policy outcomes from upcoming meetings[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a net bond purchase of 50 billion yuan in November, which was below market expectations, leading to a slight decline in long-term bond prices[4][6] - The PBOC's bond purchase strategy appears to be aimed at maintaining liquidity rather than signaling a tightening of monetary policy[5] Commodity Market Dynamics - In the commodity market, precious metals showed mixed performance, with silver rising by 2.46% while gold only slightly increased by 0.01%[7] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is weakening, with significant capital outflows observed, particularly in the new energy sector, where polysilicon saw a net outflow of 1.1 billion yuan[7][9] - The supply-demand dynamics for polysilicon remain weak, with production decreasing to 115,000 tons in November, but demand continues to lag, leading to inventory accumulation[9]