A50走弱 继昨晚下跌之后，A50早盘出现持续跳水行情，跌幅一度扩大超1%。恒指期货亦显著杀跌，港股全线 走弱。 A股市场，创业板指、科创板指持续走弱。上午10点20分左右，创业板指跌超1%，沪指跌0.33%，深证 成指跌0.76%，游戏、液冷服务器、机器人、铜缆高速连接等方向跌幅居前，沪深京三市下跌个股一度 超2700只。 A50突然下跌！ 从外围来看，美元潮汐有所减弱。近期，美元指数持续走强，昨晚强势突破98，全球风险偏好继续降 温。美国第二季度 GDP被大幅上修以及美国至9月20日当周初请失业金人数录得21.8万人，为2025年7月 19日当周以来新低。这一数据弱化了美联储降息预期。同时，美股高估的讨论也在进行当中，近期亦是 持续走弱。 与最近几个交易日的强势不同，继昨晚下跌之后，A50今早突然跳水，带动A股和港股双双出现调整， 恒指期货一度跌超1%。 从A股结构来看，虽然指数表现出色，但截至昨天的数据显示，全市场5000多只股票，却只有不足800 只股票处于多头格局当中。这意味着，A股部分股票呈现极致拥挤的格局。而从指数行情来看，这个板 块无疑是与大科技相关。很多小市值股票反而处于少人问津的状态。今天 ...

Group 1 - The event "Investing in New Opportunities in China" was held in Seoul, showcasing five Shenzhen-listed companies to over 60 Korean investors, highlighting the companies' operational status, investment value, and future development plans [1] - Korean investors expressed increased confidence in the Chinese market, recognizing the innovative vitality and development potential of Chinese enterprises through direct communication with company management [1][2] - Chinese companies are seen as transitioning from "technology followers" to "standard setters" in the global value chain, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, due to their strong R&D investments [2] Group 2 - The rapid development of China's technology innovation has led to the emergence of globally influential tech products, supporting the optimization of China's asset valuation system [3] - The stability and growth potential of China, as the world's second-largest economy, make it a preferred market for international investors amid rising geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [3] - The event is part of a series organized by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to enhance mutual understanding and trust between domestic companies and foreign investors, thereby boosting confidence in Chinese assets [4] Group 3 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange plans to continue enhancing market attractiveness and inclusivity, aiming to create a favorable environment for global investors to participate in the Chinese capital market [5]

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 9 月 24 日，万得全 A 低开后震荡上行，半导体板块表现强势，午后券商板块 异动带动指数进一步走高，全 A 收涨 1.40%，近 4500 支个股上涨；指数现货方面， 沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 1.02%、0.68%、1.99%、 1.70%。大盘蓝筹指数期货表现整体弱于现货，中小盘煮熟期货表现整体强于现货， IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.03%、 ...

中国经济结构转型不断深化。AI（人工智能）大模型、具身智能等被视为继计算机、智能手机、新能 源汽车后的颠覆性产品，人工智能、新材料、精密制造等领域成为经济增长新动能。 "以AI大模型为基础的科技产业近些年迎来爆发式发展，这一进步对人类社会影响深远。"李朝昱举例 称，自2022年至今，以ChatGPT（聊天生成预训练转换器）为代表的大模型月活用户数和Token（模型 处理文本的最小单位）调用量持续攀升，人工智能正逐步渗透搜索、办公、编程、医疗等众多领域。 重仓人形机器人产业链 自去年四季度末，李朝昱将其管理的方正富邦信泓混合基金前十大重仓股调整为人形机器人相关板块。 他坦言，看好这一赛道主要基于五大因素。 技浪潮席卷全球的当下，A股市场的"科技叙事"逻辑日益清晰。针对人形机器人这一热点板块，《证券 日报》记者近日专访了方正富邦信泓混合基金基金经理李朝昱，他从投资视角分享了自己对这一热门赛 道的洞察与思考。 三大因素共同作用 当前A股市场以人形机器人、算力等为代表的科技主线走强。对此，李朝昱认为，这并非偶然，而是政 策支持、经济转型和技术突破三大因素共同作用的结果。 "2025年《政府工作报告》明确提出，建立未来 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investor confidence in Chinese assets is increasing, with a notable rise in overseas investors' willingness to allocate to non-USD assets, particularly Chinese assets, indicating a potential strong year for Chinese assets [2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - As of June, foreign investors' holdings in A-shares exceeded 3 trillion RMB, accounting for 7.4% of the total free float market capitalization of A-shares [2]. - The number of overseas investors from the US and the Middle East attending the UBS A-share seminar has significantly increased compared to previous years [2]. - Recent data suggests that foreign capital is gradually increasing its allocation to Chinese assets, driven by expectations of potential Fed rate cuts and a stabilizing PPI in China [2][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Policies - The growth of ETFs and new trading rules have heightened the attention of trading-oriented foreign capital towards the Chinese market, while allocation-oriented foreign capital remains cautious, focusing on the sustainability of fundamental policies [4]. - Since September of last year, foreign investors' attitudes towards China have become more positive, supported by domestic policies providing a protective floor for A-shares and the emergence of new economic themes [4][5]. - The current global low-interest rate environment, combined with domestic low rates, has created a favorable liquidity environment for capital inflow into the Chinese stock market [4]. Group 3: A-share Market Dynamics - The narrative of building an investor-centric financial market in A-shares has been realized, with a slow bull market expected to continue [7]. - The current market rally is largely liquidity-driven, with indicators suggesting that individual investor participation is still low, indicating that the shift in household investment behavior is just beginning [7][8]. - Growth stocks are favored, with expectations that the second half of the year will favor growth styles for investors, although structural market dynamics may shift from small-cap growth to large-cap growth [8]. Group 4: Earnings and Valuation Outlook - A-share earnings are expected to improve this year, with a projected growth rate of around 6% for the full year, driven by a favorable base effect [10]. - Despite the recovery in A-share valuations, the decline in government bond yields is expected to push A-share valuations higher, as the market remains relatively attractive compared to historical averages [10]. - The technology sector is anticipated to continue its momentum, supported by policy backing and changing industry trends, with further room for valuation increases as fundamental performance improves [11].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Group 2: Market Review - Wanquan A Index: Fell for three consecutive trading days, with today's decline further expanding. It opened slightly higher and then oscillated lower. Sectors such as computing power, CPO, and military industry accelerated their decline as funds took profits. In the afternoon, sectors such as banks and securities companies showed abnormal movements, driving a slight recovery in the index at the end of the session. The index closed down 2.02%, with more than 50% of stocks falling [6]. - Index Spot: CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 2.12%, 1.71%, 2.48%, and 2.30% respectively [6]. - Index Futures: IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closed down 1.82%, 1.67%, 2.09%, and 1.95% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price), performing stronger than the spot market overall [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - External Market: Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated their views on interest rate cuts, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in September. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation and the expectation of consecutive rate cuts in the fourth quarter [8]. - Domestic Market: Economic data in July showed a weakening on both the supply and demand sides. Currently, the economic fundamentals are under pressure, but the expectation of future recovery under the "anti - involution" policy remains strong [8]. - Liquidity: The margin trading balance rebounded slightly yesterday and remains at a historical high. Observe the subsequent changes in margin trading funds [8]. - Long - term: Stocks are still favored in the context of the concepts of "East rising, West falling" and "Technology narrative" [8]. - Short - term: After the expectation on September 3 was fulfilled, market volatility increased, and the market is currently in an oscillating correction trend. The CSI 300 (IF) and SSE 50 (IH) contracts may perform relatively better. One can try to go long on IF and short on IM to resist market corrections [8]. Group 4: Industry News - Trump asked the US Supreme Court to uphold his global tariff policy and seek a review of the case. The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to expedite the hearing process and hold a debate in early November [32]. - The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 4 at a fixed interest rate through quantity bidding, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. The bid volume, winning bid volume were both 212.6 billion yuan. Wind data showed that 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [32].

Core Viewpoint - Investor confidence in Chinese assets is increasing, with a notable rise in overseas investors' willingness to allocate to non-USD assets, particularly Chinese assets, indicating a potentially strong year for Chinese assets [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - As of June, the scale of foreign investors' holdings in A-shares exceeded 3 trillion RMB, accounting for 7.4% of the total free float market capitalization of A-shares [1]. - The number of overseas investors from the US and the Middle East attending the A-share seminar has significantly increased compared to previous years, reflecting a growing interest in Chinese assets [1]. - The growth of ETFs and new programmatic trading rules has led to increased attention from trading-type foreign capital towards the Chinese market, while allocation-type and investment-type foreign capital remain cautious, focusing on the sustainability of fundamental policies [3]. Group 2: Economic and Market Conditions - Since September of last year, overseas investors have become more positive about China, supported by domestic policies providing bottom protection for A-shares and the emergence of new economic sectors [4]. - The current global interest rate cut expectations and low domestic interest rates create a favorable liquidity environment for capital inflow into the Chinese stock market [3]. - A-shares are expected to maintain an upward trend due to continuous economic policy support and a clearer external environment, with high-quality companies likely to stand out in the new economic development cycle [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Performance - The narrative of building an investor-centric financial market in A-shares has been realized, with a slow bull market expected to continue [6]. - The current market rally is largely driven by liquidity rather than corporate earnings changes, indicating that the shift of household financial assets is just beginning [6]. - Growth stocks are favored for investment in the second half of the year, with expectations of better performance for small-cap stocks, although the marginal difference compared to large-cap stocks may not be as pronounced as in the first half [6][7]. Group 4: Profitability and Valuation - A-share profitability is expected to improve significantly this year, with an estimated growth rate of around 6% for the full year, driven by a base effect and recovery in earnings [9]. - Despite the rebound in market valuations, the decline in government bond yields is likely to push A-share valuations higher, as A-shares remain relatively attractive compared to global markets [9]. - The technology sector's performance is supported by policy backing and changing industry trends, with further room for growth in valuations as more fundamental improvements and earnings recoveries occur [9][10].

Group 1 - As of July 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached 35.08 trillion yuan, marking a 2.01% increase from the end of June 2025, and setting a new historical record for the tenth consecutive month since 2024 [1] - Open-end funds are the primary driver of growth in public fund assets, with their net asset value totaling 31.33 trillion yuan as of July 2025, while closed-end funds accounted for 3.74 trillion yuan [1] - The growth in open-end funds includes increases in scale, shares, and number, with respective increases of 710.61 billion yuan, 158.90 billion shares, and 108 new funds compared to the end of June 2025 [1] Group 2 - Among various fund types, money market funds saw significant growth in July 2025, with an increase of 381.38 billion yuan in scale and 379.69 billion shares [2] - Equity funds and mixed funds also experienced notable growth, with stock funds increasing by 192.59 billion yuan and mixed funds by 138.56 billion yuan by the end of July 2025 [2] - Despite the growth in equity funds, their shares decreased, with stock funds down by 11.47 billion shares and mixed funds down by 3.71 billion shares compared to the end of June 2025 [2] Group 3 - Recent demand-side support policies in areas such as fertility, consumption, and infrastructure are expected to show positive effects in the medium to long term, with improvements in financial data indicating active policy implementation [3] - The market shows strong demand for high-return assets, driven by factors such as the ongoing "technology narrative" and the coexistence of high growth in household savings and "asset scarcity" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous evolution of the "technology narrative" combined with strong policy support for technological innovation presents significant investment opportunities in the high-end manufacturing sector, characterized by strong competitive dynamics and profitability [1]. Group 1: Investment Framework - The investment strategy is based on a top-down approach, focusing on macro policy direction, industry prosperity, and competitive landscape to select high-quality sectors [2]. - Priority is given to companies with technological barriers, stable competitive environments, and high market shares, emphasizing the alignment of growth potential with reasonable valuations [2]. - Dynamic adjustments to holdings based on ongoing tracking of industry prosperity and valuation levels are crucial for generating excess returns [2]. Group 2: Company Selection - The focus is on companies with favorable competitive dynamics, large market sizes, and high growth potential, verified through in-depth research and long-term tracking [3]. - Companies in the technology penetration phase, market expansion phase, and cyclical recovery phase are particularly targeted for investment [3]. - Communication with upstream and downstream companies enhances the reliability of research conclusions through multi-dimensional industry information comparison [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Expectations of continued global monetary easing and rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are likely to support the equity market [3]. - The steady recovery of the domestic economy and anticipated liquidity in the A-share market suggest promising investment opportunities in the technology sector, especially in high-end manufacturing [3]. Group 4: Company Avoidance Criteria - Companies with deteriorating competitive dynamics, low industry barriers, or declining demand are to be avoided [3]. - Companies with frequently changing management strategies and lack of long-term planning should also be excluded [3]. - Firms with misaligned interests between management and shareholders, as well as those with outdated technologies, are considered undesirable investments [3].

Core Insights - The unexpected success of the humanoid robot's performance on the CCTV Spring Festival Gala highlights the importance of effective storytelling in technology promotion [1][2] - The difference in public reception between the "robotic cow" and the humanoid robot lies in the latter's ability to evoke imagination and cultural resonance [1][2] - The narrative surrounding technology can significantly enhance its appeal and societal impact, as seen in the case of AlphaGo [2][3] Group 1: Technology and Cultural Integration - The humanoid robot's dance performance symbolizes the integration of traditional culture and high technology, creating a cultural icon [1][3] - Effective communication of technological advancements requires placing them within familiar cultural contexts to foster public engagement and understanding [3] Group 2: The Role of Storytelling in Technology - Technology storytelling can stimulate curiosity and imagination, leading to broader discussions and creative expressions among audiences [2] - The success of technology is not solely dependent on its capabilities but also on how it is presented and perceived by the public [2][3]