在产业维度，资金向AI头部集中，推动行业从单纯性能比拼转向成本、效率与商业化能力竞争：一方 面，中小企业不用再为高昂的算力成本望而却步，能基于开源权重快速搭建适配自身场景的应用；另一 方面，允许蒸馏训练的规则，相当于打开了二次创新的大门，开发者可以基于现有成果优化衍生模型， 加速技术落地。 在投资维度，它推动中国科技产业"估值折价"修复，A股科创50、港股恒生科技及纳斯达克中国金龙指 数全线上涨。相关企业成市场明星，如"易中天"组合（新易盛（300502）、中际旭创（300308）等）年 内最高涨幅超450%，"纪连海"组合（寒武纪、海光信息等）中寒武纪股价一度超贵州茅台 （600519），国产GPU企业摩尔线程上市后涨势强劲，股价5个交易日破900元大关。 2025年是很不平凡的一年，DeepSeek-R1的上线带火了中国科技叙事，AI成为全年主线；"反内卷"成为 各行业共识，产业发展向更高质量方向迈进；《哪吒2》热映、外卖大战，既是生活里的"烟火气"，也 是2025年消费新图景的生动写照。 在读者们的共同投票下，证券时报·e公司精选出2025年十大产经热点事件——定格过去一年每一个重磅 瞬间。 DeepS ...

2025年是很不平凡的一年，DeepSeek-R1的上线带火了中国科技叙事，AI成为全年主线；"反内卷"成为 各行业共识，产业发展向更高质量方向迈进；《哪吒2》热映、外卖大战，既是生活里的"烟火气"，也 是2025年消费新图景的生动写照。 在读者们的共同投票下，证券时报·e公司精选出2025年十大产经热点事件——定格过去一年每一个重磅 瞬间。 DeepSeek-R1发布 AI成全年主线 2025年1月，DeepSeek-R1发布，为资本市场注入强劲动能，成全年核心投资主线。其以少量算力实现 顶尖推理性能，打破"堆算力"路径依赖，开源模式降低行业门槛，带动芯片、设备、应用及散热、备用 电源等大模型相关产业链获资本高度关注，形成全年最大投资赛道。 在产业维度，资金向AI头部集中，推动行业从单纯性能比拼转向成本、效率与商业化能力竞争：一方 面，中小企业不用再为高昂的算力成本望而却步，能基于开源权重快速搭建适配自身场景的应用；另一 方面，允许蒸馏训练的规则，相当于打开了二次创新的大门，开发者可以基于现有成果优化衍生模型， 加速技术落地。 在投资维度，它推动中国科技产业"估值折价"修复，A股科创50、港股恒生科技及纳斯 ...

权益基金"满血复活"大数据 2025年，A股市场走出了一轮以科技为核心的牛市行情，公募基金迎来近年来最显著的赚钱效应。 Wind数据显示，全市场有数据统计的13530只公募基金（仅计算主代码，下同）中，今年以来（截至12月22日，下同）回报率为正的有12642 只，占比达93.44%。负收益产品仅869只，占比6.42%。另有少量基金零收益。 与前三年市场低迷、基金大面积亏损的情况不同，2025年主动权益类基金（含普通股票型、偏股混合型、平衡混合型、灵活配置型）实现"满 血复活"。 当市场还在争论主动与被动投资孰优孰劣时，2025年的公募基金排名战给出了双重答案。 截至12月22日，永赢科技智选以超过231%的年度回报暂时登顶主动基金榜首，国泰通信设备ETF则以125.7%的涨幅领跑被动基金阵营。 在这场"双轨竞速"中，主动权益基金与被动指数基金虽均实现显著收益，但胜出逻辑截然不同：主动基金依靠精准的行业聚焦与高集中度选股 实现超额收益，被动基金则依托通信、人工智能等高景气主题指数的爆发性增长获得领先。 两条截然不同的制胜路径，正在重塑中国资产管理行业的竞争格局。 统计显示，全市场4700只主动权益类基金年内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for government bonds is bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the bond market turned from bullish to bearish, mainly due to the reversal of the macro - narrative. Looking ahead to 2026, inflation will moderately rebound, the equity market will continue to suppress bonds, the bond market will show a bearish steepening trend, and the futures rhythm will be similar to an "M" shape. Strategies such as short - selling on rallies, short - hedging, and steepening the curve are recommended [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 National Debt Trend Review - The bond market turned bearish in 2025, with the whole - year market divided into five stages. The change in the macro - narrative was the core reason for the bear market [14][21] - The yield curve first flattened and then steepened. The basis spread had a relatively low central level overall, with a phased increase during market adjustments [17][18] 3.2 Policy Foundation of the Positive Macro - Narrative: Dual - Circulation Strategy 3.2.1 Policy Ideas of the Dual - Circulation Strategy - Proposed in 2020 to cope with economic challenges, it aims to optimize supply, improve corporate profits, and gradually form stable growth and moderate inflation through measures like developing technology, anti - involution, investing in people, and promoting "Belt and Road" and RMB trade [24][27][31] 3.2.2 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Ideas under the Dual - Circulation Strategy - Fiscal policy is generally positive but will increase moderately and make decisions based on the situation. Fiscal expenditure is shifting towards high - tech industries, people's livelihood, and resolving local government hidden debts [38][40] - Monetary policy will actively cooperate with fiscal policy, maintaining a low - interest - rate environment cautiously, gradually shifting to asset - price transmission, and building a RMB sovereign credit system [40][43] 3.3 Outlook for 2026: Moderate Rebound in Inflation 3.3.1 Supply - side Clearance: De - investment and De - capacity - In 2026, anti - involution policies will expand. The effectiveness of these policies is already visible, and manufacturing investment growth will have a low central level, optimized structure, and a front - low and back - high rhythm [45][48][49] 3.3.2 Real Estate Still a Drag, but Year - on - Year Decline in Data Expected to Narrow - Real estate data weakened again in 2025. Policy thinking is changing, with long - term transformation as the main focus and short - term support as a supplement. Real estate data may still weaken month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline is expected to narrow [50][53][57] 3.3.3 External Demand is the Most Important Force to Offset Real Estate - China's export growth exceeded expectations in 2025. In 2026, global terminal demand is relatively strong, and emerging demand is booming. The export growth rate is expected to remain high, with ASEAN, the EU, and Africa continuing to drive exports [58][62][65] 3.3.4 Overseas Inflation will Moderately Transmit to the Domestic Market - Overseas inflation has an upward risk, but the transmission to the domestic market is moderate. Overall, domestic prices have the impetus to rise moderately in 2026, and the bond market will remain weak [66][71][72] 3.4 The Equity Market will Continue to Suppress Bonds 3.4.1 The Logic of the Technology Narrative is Hard to Be Falsified in the Short Term - The trading theme may shift to Sino - US technological competition in 2026. The technology narrative is difficult to be falsified, and the bull market in Chinese technology stocks is expected to continue [74][76][77] 3.4.2 The Stock Market is Likely to Remain in a Bull Market in 2026 - The stock market is expected to shift from the first stage (fund - driven) to the second stage (inflation and profit - driven) in 2026. With the weakening of the US dollar index, overseas funds will flow back, and policy support will continue, so the bull market is likely to continue, suppressing the bond market [78][80][86] 3.5 The Bond Market will Show a Bearish Steepening Trend, and the Futures Rhythm will be Similar to an "M" Shape 3.5.1 Short - term Bonds are Relatively Stable, Determined by Monetary Policy and Funds - Monetary policy in 2026 will remain "moderately loose," with one expected interest rate cut of 10BP and one reserve requirement ratio cut of 50BP. Short - term bond interest rates are expected to be relatively stable, with the 1Y Treasury bond interest rate centered around 1.3% [90][91][94] 3.5.2 Long - term Bonds Face Supply - Demand Imbalance, and the Curve will Steepen with Volatility - Long - term bonds are more sensitive to inflation and the stock market. The supply - demand imbalance in the long - term bond market is obvious. The 10Y Treasury bond interest rate is expected to reach a high of around 2.0%, and the 30Y Treasury bond interest rate may reach a high of 2.5% - 2.6% [95][98][113] 3.5.3 Treasury Bond Futures will have a Winding Trend, Similar to an "M" Shape - The trend of the bond market in 2026 will be winding. It is expected to strengthen from the beginning of the year to before the Spring Festival, decline from after the Spring Festival to the end of Q2 with possible rebounds due to interest rate cuts, have increased volatility in Q3 with a slowing pace of interest rate increase, and show an uncertain trend in Q4, generally similar to an "M" shape [114][115][116] 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Short - sell Treasury bond futures on rallies [119] - Spot - futures strategy: Pay high attention to short - hedging strategies [120] - Curve strategy: Pay attention to strategies such as steepening the 10Y - 1Y curve and going long on 3T and short on TL [121]

今年以来，科技领域持续创新突破，政策环境不断优化。多重因素交织下，科技资产展现出前所未有的 投资魅力与发展潜力。现阶段，"科技叙事"深化中国资产价格重估的"关键变量"有哪些？如何在科技板 块波动中精准把握"高低切换"的投资机会？近日，《证券日报》记者带着这些问题对嘉实前沿创新混合 基金经理何鸣晓进行专访。 三方面看待"关键变量" 今年以来，科技领域实现多项突破，并带动了中国资产价值重估。在何鸣晓看来，推动"科技叙事"深化 的"关键变量"有三方面：一是中国科技力量持续提升，在各领域都取得了重大突破，比如国产模型、国 产算力、半导体先进制程等；二是国内政策对中国科技领域的持续支持，包括对科技创新的引导、科技 企业融资等；三是国内人才厚度持续提升，包括AI算法人员的逐步培养成熟、一代又一代技术进步下 相伴相生的工程师红利等。 尽管科技板块的基本面支撑坚实，但近期个股走势却出现显著分化。对此，何鸣晓表示，当下科技相关 板块表现出一定的波动和分化，但短期波动震荡波动不用过度担心，需要从三方面看待。首先，从全球 市场而言，海外投资者对部分海外原厂商资本开支、存储涨价可持续性的看法存在分歧；其次，我国过 程模型和国产算力正 ...

刘世锦指出，理解中国优势是把握战略主动的关键。他认为，中国经济有三大优势，一是追赶潜能优势，包括消费结构升级带 动的服务业发展，传统制造业和农业的转型升级等；二是以数字技术和绿色技术为重点的新技术革命优势；第三是超大规模市 场经济优势。 南方财经大厦是南方财经全媒体集团的总部所在地，于今年11月6日正式投入使用。随着2025年会的召开，已连续举办7年的南 方财经论坛将永久入驻。以此为契机，南方财经全媒体集团将以用户为中心，坚持移动优先、产品牵引、数据驱动，全力建设 具有全球影响力的中国一流财经媒体和金融信息服务机构。 12月5日-6日，南方财经论坛2025年会在南方财经大厦举行。该论坛由南方财经全媒体集团主办、21世纪数字传媒承办。本届年 会以"共识的力量——创新涌动与中国资产重估"为主题。 海外机构嘉宾对中国资产的长期投资价值充满信心，并切身感受到中国企业在全球化、数字化、高端化、绿色化的微观活力。 纽约证券交易所中国区主管葛辰皓表示，自DeepSeek引发关注以来，众多投资者已开始对中国科技股进行价值重估。大量海外 资金、长期资金也重新回到中概股，相信更多中概股将借由这一"东风"，在境外资本市场完成上市。 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：政策博弈与靴子落地 12 月 2 日，股债再次双杀。股市下跌，多与情绪相关，连续修复行情过后，迎来常规波动；债市则在定价消 息面的几个利空。 权益市场缩量下跌。万得全 A下跌 0.64%，全天成交额 1.61 万亿元，较昨日（12 月 1 日）缩量 2822 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.24%，恒生科技下跌 0.37%。南向资金净流入 41.1 亿港元，其中美团、小米集团 和阿里巴巴分别净流入 5.92 亿港元、3.80 亿港元和 3.57 亿港元，而腾讯控股净流出 3.81 亿港元。 市场交易清淡，整体处于观望状态。今日成交额再度缩量至 1.6 万亿元附近，处于 8 月以来的低位。事实上， 从 11 月 14 日以来，市场量价矛盾显著。一方面指数宽幅震荡，在大跌后持续修复；另一方面成交额却变化不 大，始终没有突破 2 万亿元，也未曾低于 1.5 万亿元。这体现出，美股大跌带来的悲观情绪并未快速蔓延，而接连 涌现的科技叙事也未能驱动增量资金持续入场。大部分资金希望等待更明确 ...

Core Insights - The market has established a foundation for a rebound after a week of adjustments, with structural risks significantly alleviated. The concentration of trading volume has decreased to around 40%, below the historical average of 45%, and the proportion of stocks with prices above their 95th historical percentile has dropped to 12%, below the historical average of 15% [2][3] - The technology sector is not expected to weaken completely, as evidenced by the rebound in tech stocks and the ongoing narrative surrounding technological advancements, such as Gemini 3 and Google's TPU, which have drawn attention to Google's supply chain [2][3] - The market currently lacks strong reasons for a significant rebound, primarily due to two prevailing concerns: the instability of the US stock market and the deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, which may hinder risk appetite recovery [2][3] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight increase of 0.62%, with a total trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.97%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.78% [1] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 8.571 billion HKD, with Alibaba receiving a net inflow of 4.066 billion HKD, and Tencent and Kuaishou receiving net inflows of 1.167 billion HKD and 819 million HKD, respectively [1] Bond Market - The bond market continues to experience low trading volumes, with the number of transactions for 10-year government bonds and 10-year policy bank bonds declining to 220 and 972, respectively. The trading activity of 10-year government bonds has been surpassed by 7-year government bonds [4] - The overall performance of 5-7 year government bonds and local government bonds has been better, likely due to institutional behavior. Despite net redemptions in pure bond funds, the redemption pressure is not significant, primarily driven by banks seeking to secure profits as year-end approaches [4][5] Credit Market - As of late November, credit spreads across various types and maturities have compressed to very low levels, with spreads generally within the 25th percentile since 2021. This thin spread protection has led investors to reassess credit pricing, resulting in adjustments in lower-rated bonds [5] - The market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern until a new catalyst emerges, with the current environment suggesting that leveraging and coupon payments may be necessary to navigate this "boring period" [5] Commodity Market - The commodity market is showing signs of mild recovery, although significant differentiation between sectors remains. Precious metals have seen reduced declines, while industrial metals have shown mixed performance [6] - The market experienced a small net inflow of 200 million yuan, contrasting with a significant net outflow of 8.5 billion yuan the previous trading day. Agricultural products and black chain indices have attracted substantial capital, while non-ferrous and new energy sectors faced reductions [6]

11月20日，以"立足湾区 投资全球"为主题的2025湾区财富大会在深圳会展中心举行。当日下午举行 的"市场前瞻：量化策略和被动投资趋势"主题讨论环节上，安本投资中国区销售及市场负责人郑东分享 了对中国资产价值重估以及科技叙事等话题的看法。 郑东表示，安本投资是一家源自英国的老牌资管机构，集团全球管理规模已超过5000亿美元。中国是他 们长期深耕的核心市场，早在1992 年，安本投资就成立了亚太总部，成为最早进入亚太地区开展业务 的环球资管机构之一，也是首批进入中国外资资管名单的机构，对中国市场的承诺始终坚定且长期。 "我们认为，当前政策为市场提供了坚实支撑，无论是遏制行业内卷的导向，还是监管层面的积极举 措，都对市场修复与经济复苏起到了重要推动作用。"郑东说。 （原标题：安本投资郑东：科技叙事愈发鲜明?中国将涌现出大量优质投资机会） 21世纪经济报道记者 庞成 深圳报道 郑东表示，在具体投资赛道上，投资重点聚焦人工智能与科技领域，并观察到一个显著趋势：国内大型 科技公司、互联网巨头的研发费用支出，正不断向美国科技巨头靠拢。 "在国内人工智能和科技领域的资本支出扩张周期中，我们判断会涌现出大量优质投资机会，这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market is entering a new phase characterized by vitality and opportunities, driven by technological advancements and a changing global landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Global Context - The global industrial and financial landscape is undergoing profound restructuring, presenting new opportunities for external breakthroughs [2]. - Geopolitical factors are causing instability in the international situation, leading to a reconfiguration of international economic and trade orders [2]. - China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience amidst tariff fluctuations, with a 7.1% increase in exports in the first three quarters of the year [2]. Group 2: Technological Trends - The "technology narrative" in China is improving risk appetite, with significant breakthroughs in industries such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and aerospace [3][4]. - The development of new productive forces is expected to create new opportunities in the capital market [4]. Group 3: Market Characteristics - The shift towards "new" development in the Chinese capital market will lead to continuous optimization of market structure, with the electronic sector's market capitalization surpassing that of the banking sector this year [4]. - The market will increasingly reflect the achievements of China's new economy and align more closely with the internationalization of the economy and industries [4]. Group 4: Economic Functionality - The capital market's role in serving the real economy will support the transition of economic growth drivers, with a moderate recovery expected next year [5]. - The development of new productive forces is anticipated to stabilize China's economic growth over the next five years [5]. Group 5: Institutional Environment - The improvement of the capital market's inclusiveness and adaptability is expected to bring new dynamics to the market ecosystem [5]. - There is significant room for improvement in the allocation of equity assets among Chinese residents compared to developed markets [5].