国外 1. 瑞银：国际投资者对中国市场信心增强 瑞银全球金融市场部中国主管房东明表示，自去年九月中国宏观经济政策产生积极变化后，全球投资者 对中国资产的兴趣日益浓厚，包括A股和港股市场。他指出，港股相较于美元资产更具吸引力，投资者 可以从中国公司的基本面改善和估值回升中获益，港元汇率与美元挂钩也进一步推动了对港股的需求。 房东明认为，凭借市场深度和估值优势，A股表现有望追上港股。"我们一直强调，中国资产整体被国 际投资者低配的局面不会持续。"他指出。 2. 大摩：标普500指数明年年中目标上望7200点 国内 1. 华泰证券：预计美联储7月会议大概率按兵不动 华泰证券研报称，北京时间7月31日（周四）凌晨美联储将公布7月议息会议决定，虽然6月会议以来特 朗普多次施压鲍威尔降息，美联储内部也有委员要求7月降息，但考虑到就业市场整体超预期，且关税 未来将逐步传导至通胀，预计美联储7月会议大概率按兵不动；往前看，华泰证券认为，后续降息决策 取决于7—8月经济数据，维持就业市场走弱会促使美联储9—12月预防式降息2次的判断。 2. 国泰海通：解雇鲍威尔高难度、低收益、高风险，且可能性较低 国泰海通发表研报称，解雇鲍威 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy marks a transition from local pilot programs to a national system, reflecting a pragmatic approach focused on improving people's livelihoods [1][2] Policy Overview - The policy aims to create a "family-friendly" society, emphasizing the importance of reducing the financial burden of child-rearing for families [2][3] - Starting from January 1, 2025, families will receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan for each child under three years old, regardless of whether they have one, two, or three children [1][3] Coverage and Financial Implications - The subsidy will cover all children under three years old, with an estimated annual total subsidy of approximately 1,012 billion yuan, funded by the central government [3][4] - Local governments are encouraged to provide additional subsidies based on their financial capabilities, allowing for differentiated support across regions [3][4] International Comparison - Compared to other countries, China's current subsidy level is relatively low, with the potential for future increases to enhance the effectiveness of the policy [4] Investment Recommendations - The policy is expected to benefit several sectors, including: - **Dairy Products**: The demand for infant formula is likely to increase, directly linked to the subsidy policy [5][6] - **Mother and Baby Retail Chains**: These companies are expected to see improved performance as birth rates rise, positively impacting same-store sales [6][7] - **Infant Products**: Companies in this sector will benefit from an expanded customer base due to increased birth rates [6][7] - **Postpartum Care Services**: The market for postpartum care is projected to grow significantly, driven by rising awareness and supportive policies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to create opportunities in four key sectors: dairy products, maternal and infant chains, baby products, and postpartum care services [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Policy Overview - The State Council issued the "Implementation Plan for Childcare Subsidy System," which provides an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child for infants under three years old [1] - The total annual subsidy amount is estimated to be around 100 billion yuan, funded by the central government [1] Coverage and Local Adaptation - The policy significantly expands the coverage to include all infants under three years old [1] - There is potential for differentiated local subsidies, allowing financially strong provinces with high population inflow to increase subsidies based on local needs [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four sectors that are likely to benefit from the new subsidy: 1. Dairy products 2. Maternal and infant chains 3. Baby products 4. Postpartum care services [1]