发言人 1: 欢迎收看《市场观察》。我是史蒂文·伯格，摩根士丹利全球主题与可持续发展研究主管； 我是米歇尔·韦弗，美国主题与股票策略师。我近期曾做客本节目，探讨摩根士丹利 2026 年的四大核心主题。今天我们将分析这些主题今年在现实世界中的具体演绎。今天是 2 月 10 日周二，纽约时间上午 10 点。当前投资者面临的最大挑战之一，是从噪音中甄别有效 信号。市场对新闻标题的反应瞬息万变，但长期回报的真正驱动因素往往变化更慢、影响 更深远。 这正是主题分析成为我们市场思考核心工具的原因——尤其在高波动时期。2026 年，我 们的框架围绕四大主题构建：人工智能（从科技到融合）、能源未来、多极世界与社会变 迁。换言之，其中三个是熟悉的主题，一个是去年主题的重要演进。 米歇尔，我们先从核心问题开始。当投资者听到四大关键主题时，2026 年框架与 2025 年提出的版本有何不同？ 另一个问题是，大语言模型（LLAM）的潜在能力与普通用户的实际使用水平之间可能存 在巨大差距。当然会有例外——领先企业能充分利用大语言模型的全部潜力并取得显著甚 至惊人的成果，但整体平均水平并非如此，因此会出现一定的滞后效应。不过我认为，当 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise of NPU-based companies in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the AI sector, as they secure significant deals with industry leader NVIDIA, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - The global AI fabless market is evolving through technological competition and mergers, with key players including Groq, SambaNova Systems, Cerebras, Tenstorrent, and Korean companies Rebellions and FuriosaAI [1] - NVIDIA's acquisition of Groq's core technology rights for $20 billion (approximately 29 trillion KRW) is noted as the largest deal in NVIDIA's history, significantly boosting Groq's valuation to around $7 billion, nearly tripling its worth [1] Group 2 - Cerebras has signed a $10 billion (approximately 14 trillion KRW) computing power supply contract with OpenAI and is in talks to raise $1 billion in new investments [2] - The NPU industry is expanding its business scope from chip supply to server and data center infrastructure, with a focus on the Middle East's demand for "autonomous AI" to reduce reliance on US and Chinese technology [2] - Rebellions is targeting the Saudi data center market with its REBEL-Quad product, which is said to perform comparably to NVIDIA's flagship GPU [2] Group 3 - Rebellions' CEO expressed concerns about the competitive landscape, noting that countries like the US and China are building AI infrastructure using non-NVIDIA products for supply chain diversification [3] - The CEO highlighted that Saudi Arabia purchased Groq chips worth 750 billion KRW last year, while the UAE bought Cerebras chips worth 1.5 trillion KRW, contrasting with Rebellions' government revenue of only 7 billion KRW [3] - Rebellions plans to begin mass production of REBEL-Quad in the first half of the year, while FuriosaAI aims to supply up to 20,000 RNGD units by the end of the year [3]