投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月12日 [失业率回落令市场押注美国经济复苏 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：美国2025年12月非农数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [table_main] ➢ 事件：当地时间1月9日，美国劳工局公布2025年12月美国非农就业数据。美国12月季调 后非农就业人口新增5.0万人，预期6.0万人，前值增6.4万人；失业率下降至4.4%，预期 4.5%，前值从4.6%下修至4.5%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国12月非农就业数据略显平庸，非农新增5万人略低于预期，但市场关注依 然放在本次大超预期的失业率上。12月U3失业率从4.6%下修至4.5%，同时12月失业率再 次下降到4.4%，打消了此前市场对失业率触发"萨姆规则"的担忧。非农数据方面拆分来 看，服 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data may be overestimated, with a significant downward revision of 344,000 jobs in Q1 2024 due to the Birth-Death Model's lagging indicators[10] - The CES (Current Employment Statistics) data may have overestimated non-farm employment by approximately 635,000 jobs from January to August 2025, influenced by an increase in multiple jobholders and a decrease in unpaid leave[15] - The CES survey response rate has declined from 60% in January 2020 to 42.6% in March 2025, indicating a potential increase in statistical errors[13] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Since March 2025, the U.S. has seen a net loss of 1.48 million immigrant workers, while native labor supply has increased by 1.861 million[23] - The "native substitution" effect is unlikely to be sustainable due to the aging population and the inability of native workers to fill the gaps left by departing immigrants[33] - The labor market is experiencing a trend of declining hiring rates and slightly increasing layoff rates, with a pessimistic outlook on job switching due to low wage growth[20] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The cyclical industries, such as leisure and hospitality, construction, and manufacturing, are showing significant employment slowdowns, with the construction sector particularly affected by a cooling housing market[40] - The leisure and hospitality sector has a high turnover rate, with a youth participation rate of 34.48% and a part-time rate of 44.1%, leading to a unique "high demand, high supply" balance[47] - Non-cyclical sectors like education and healthcare are facing downward risks, with the healthcare sector experiencing job losses of at least 70,000 in the past year due to policy changes and layoffs[29]