2025年下半年，很多人依然感到经济压力山大，找工作难，收入也没有明显增长。 与此同时，关于美国经济复苏的新闻不断，让不少人开始怀疑中国经济的未来。 有些人甚至觉得，中国的经济黄金期已经过去，再也回不去了。真的是这样吗？ 经济压力大、人民不赚钱！为何还有人看好中国经济？ 中国经济在过去几十年中，经历了多次重要的转型，从农业国到工业化，再到现在的高科技和服务业驱动型经济。 这一过程中，虽然每一次转型都伴随着阵痛，但每次转型后，中国经济都能迎来新的发展动能。 而2025年下半年的中国经济，依然拥有巨大的韧性，能够在不断变化的国际环境中稳步前行。 今年4月7日，中国迎来了一次严重的关税冲击。 当时，A股市场应声暴跌，跌幅一度达到245点，市场情绪出现恐慌，很多投资者担心中国是否会重蹈2018年贸易战的覆辙。 但出人意料的是，中国政府并未慌乱，而是迅速出台了一系列应对措施，稳定市场信心。 中国政府的反应非常迅速且有效，首先通过托底港股市场来稳定金融情绪，然后再采取措施稳定A股市场。 几天之内，市场信心得到恢复，股市反弹明显。这一过程清晰地体现了中国经济的稳定性和政策的灵活性。 与此对比，面对类似的挑战，美国市场的反应 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】近日，美国研究机构世界大型企业联合会发布的报告显示，9月美国消费者信 心指数为94.2，较8月下降3.6点，创下该指数自4月以来的最低水平。 报告还显示，认为工作机会"充足"的受访者比例下滑至26.9%，较8月下降逾3个百分点，而认为"工作难 找"的受访者比例则维持在19.1%。此外，人们对财务状况的悲观情绪更加强烈，对当前财务状况的看 法出现自2022年7月以来的最大单月跌幅。 对此数据，谘商会资深经济学家Stephanie Guichard指出，消费者对商业条件的判断在近几个月明显转 弱，对就业机会的看法已连续九个月恶化并创多年新低，这一情况与美国经济复苏放缓、家庭支出面临 压力的现实相呼应。 另有华尔街分析师认为，在美联储官员考虑下一步利率走势之际，劳动力市场稳定是其重要考量因素。 美联储副主席杰斐逊则表示，美国明年通胀率将下降，未来几年将达到2%，美国劳动力市场面临的下 行风险正在增加。 方正证券分析认为，连续2个月的新增就业数据超预期走弱，反映美国就业市场全线降温。但本轮就业 人数走弱的背景在于驱逐移民背景下，劳动力供给明显走弱，使得失业率并未大幅上行，且时薪增速仍 较为温和， ...

这份报告罗列了多项支持美国经济再加速判断的证据。 风险资产的盛宴可能远未结束。 据追风交易台消息，汇丰9月22日发布的《上涨，上涨，再上涨》研报指出，美国经济数据的重新加速迹象与美联储的降息构成了一个"强有力的 催化剂"，将继续推动风险资产走高。 各类资产价格正呈现普遍的上涨态势。我们认为，好戏还在后头。 该行首席多资产策略师Max Kettner团队分析，尽管市场对美国经济前景存在分歧，美国存在劳动力市场疲软、违约率上升等风险，但一系列指标 显示经济正在重拾动能。与此同时，美联储的宽松倾向为市场注入了关键的流动性预期。标普500指数已创下历史新高，而新兴市场和高收益债券 的利差也收窄至周期性低点。 报告强调，当前美国"K型复苏"不仅不构成风险，反而强化了其看多立场。一方面，高收入群体财富增长、实际工资水平保持良好，支撑了整体 消费和经济数据；另一方面，低收入群体面临的通胀压力、薪资放缓和违约率上升等问题，恰恰成为美联储推出降息的关键理由。这种"高增长 +宽货币"的组合，为风险资产提供了类似"金发姑娘"的有利环境。 美国经济复苏信号 从自上而下的宏观数据看，美国每周零售销售和综合增长指标自6月底以来均出现改善 ...

东吴证券研报称，市场已充分定价3次的降息次数，全年降息次数没有进一步上调空间。因为就业的疲 软，市场对美国经济产生悲观态度，不过从领先指标来看，美国经济已有"复苏"迹象，如果经济超预期 上行，降息预期会进一步收敛。降息并不一定导致美元大幅走弱。从历史复盘的角度看，预防式降息导 致美元在一周后平均下跌，且跌幅相对较多（-0.91%），但一个月内跌幅收窄并转为上涨，未来三个月 和六个月平均上涨0.84%、2.02%。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, predicts a "significant acceleration" in the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter, contrasting with the current weak employment performance [1] - Becerra acknowledges the loss of 42,000 manufacturing jobs since the announcement of comprehensive tariff policies by the Trump administration in April [2] - He emphasizes that the recovery in manufacturing jobs will take time and cannot happen overnight [2] Group 2 - Becerra questions the reliability of recent employment data, stating that August is typically the "noisiest month" for data and often sees the largest revisions [3] - He criticizes the Federal Reserve for being slow to respond to economic data, suggesting that they should have started lowering interest rates as early as June [3] - Becerra hints at a potential downward revision of up to 800,000 jobs in the upcoming non-farm payroll data [3] Group 3 - Becerra highlights record levels of corporate investment intentions, indicating that companies plan to build production facilities in the U.S., which will first create jobs in construction and then in manufacturing [3][4] - The Treasury Department reportedly meets with two management teams daily, with most companies indicating plans to increase capital expenditures and employment [4] - Despite challenges faced by companies like John Deere due to tariff policies, Becerra notes that many companies report that tariffs have benefited their business and are planning to increase capital spending and employment [4] Group 4 - Companies such as John Deere, Nike, and major automakers have warned that tariffs are adding unexpected costs amounting to hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars [5] - Goldman Sachs estimates that 86% of tariff costs are ultimately borne by U.S. businesses and consumers, a conclusion that Becerra completely rejects [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets faced a sudden storm in August, primarily driven by disappointing economic data, particularly the U.S. non-farm payroll report for July and significant revisions to previous months' data, raising concerns about the U.S. economic recovery and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The final value of the S&P Manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.8%, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI was even lower at 48, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the first time since December of the previous year [2]. - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index also fell short of expectations, ending at 61.7, further painting a bleak picture of the economy [2]. Market Reactions - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500, experienced significant declines, with the Dow down 1.38%, Nasdaq down 1.92%, and S&P 500 down 1.51% [6]. - The technology sector was particularly hard hit, with notable declines in stocks of major companies such as Amazon, which fell by 6.38% due to disappointing earnings expectations [1][6]. Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - One-year inflation expectations surged to 4.5%, exceeding market forecasts, while five-year expectations decreased, indicating persistent short-term inflationary pressures [3]. - The anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve gained traction, leading to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index, which fell by 1.12% to 98.8510 [5]. Global Market Impact - The risk-averse sentiment spread globally, affecting European markets, with major indices like the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC 40 all experiencing declines, some exceeding 2.7% [5]. - The weakening dollar contributed to increased volatility in global markets, with non-U.S. currencies appreciating against the dollar [5]. Future Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for August is expected to be a critical focus for the market, as it will influence perceptions of the U.S. economic recovery and potential capital outflows [7]. - The current market turmoil highlights underlying structural issues within the U.S. economy, with a fragile market sentiment that may lead to further volatility in the future [7].

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy rebounded significantly in Q2, with inflation-adjusted GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3%, reversing the -0.5% contraction in Q1 and exceeding market expectations of 2.6% [1][4] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending increased by 1.4% in Q2, slightly below the expected 1.5%, marking the slowest growth in two consecutive quarters [5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in automobiles, showed signs of recovery, alongside improved service demand, driven by rising consumer confidence [6] Import and Export Dynamics - A significant decline in imports contributed to a 5 percentage point boost to GDP, a rare occurrence in economic history [5] - However, both business investment and exports experienced declines, indicating a weakening growth momentum amid high interest rates and slowing external demand [6] Inflation and PCE - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q2 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% but above the expected 2.3%, suggesting a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies [3][4] Real Estate and Inventory Impact - Residential investment fell at an annualized rate of 4.6%, the worst performance since 2022, as high interest rates deterred buyers and developers [7] - Inventory changes negatively impacted GDP by 3.17 percentage points, the largest drag since 2020, reflecting inventory buildup from earlier purchases being gradually cleared [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite strong Q2 GDP growth, underlying concerns about cooling domestic demand, inflation rebound, and weak investment persist, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery [10] - Analysts suggest that while the data appears strong, it may mask underlying issues, and upcoming reports on consumer spending, inflation, and employment will provide further insights into economic momentum [10]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing fluctuations with current spot prices lower than futures prices, indicating a potential opportunity for investors to monitor market movements closely [1][2]. Price Summary - On July 4, the spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 8897.00 yuan per kilogram, which is 22.00 yuan lower than the futures price of 8919.00 yuan per kilogram [1]. - The market prices for 1 silver (IC-Ag99.99) varied slightly across different trading platforms in Shanghai, with quotes ranging from 8897 yuan to 8913 yuan per kilogram [2]. - The Shanghai silver futures market closed at 8919.00 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 0.59% increase, with a daily trading volume of 385,997 contracts [2]. Market Insights - As of July 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a silver futures warehouse receipt of 1,340,792 kilograms, which is an increase of 2,133 kilograms from the previous trading day [2]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reported a silver futures trading volume of 60,640 contracts on July 3, an increase of 15,784 contracts from the previous day, with open interest rising by 2,016 contracts to 166,220 [2]. Analytical Perspective - According to Ningzheng Futures research, the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act may lead to a new round of economic recovery in the U.S., which is bullish for silver [2]. - Despite a significant increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have weakened, suggesting a resilient U.S. economy that could support risk assets, including silver [2]. - The potential for further silver price increases appears limited, and the market may remain in a consolidation phase, warranting cautious observation [2].

美国总统特朗普置评美国经济：经济复苏将需要一段时间，请保持耐心。 ...