Core Viewpoint - The financial markets faced a sudden storm in August, primarily driven by disappointing economic data, particularly the U.S. non-farm payroll report for July and significant revisions to previous months' data, raising concerns about the U.S. economic recovery and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The final value of the S&P Manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.8%, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI was even lower at 48, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the first time since December of the previous year [2]. - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index also fell short of expectations, ending at 61.7, further painting a bleak picture of the economy [2]. Market Reactions - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500, experienced significant declines, with the Dow down 1.38%, Nasdaq down 1.92%, and S&P 500 down 1.51% [6]. - The technology sector was particularly hard hit, with notable declines in stocks of major companies such as Amazon, which fell by 6.38% due to disappointing earnings expectations [1][6]. Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - One-year inflation expectations surged to 4.5%, exceeding market forecasts, while five-year expectations decreased, indicating persistent short-term inflationary pressures [3]. - The anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve gained traction, leading to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index, which fell by 1.12% to 98.8510 [5]. Global Market Impact - The risk-averse sentiment spread globally, affecting European markets, with major indices like the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC 40 all experiencing declines, some exceeding 2.7% [5]. - The weakening dollar contributed to increased volatility in global markets, with non-U.S. currencies appreciating against the dollar [5]. Future Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for August is expected to be a critical focus for the market, as it will influence perceptions of the U.S. economic recovery and potential capital outflows [7]. - The current market turmoil highlights underlying structural issues within the U.S. economy, with a fragile market sentiment that may lead to further volatility in the future [7].

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy rebounded significantly in Q2, with inflation-adjusted GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3%, reversing the -0.5% contraction in Q1 and exceeding market expectations of 2.6% [1][4] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending increased by 1.4% in Q2, slightly below the expected 1.5%, marking the slowest growth in two consecutive quarters [5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in automobiles, showed signs of recovery, alongside improved service demand, driven by rising consumer confidence [6] Import and Export Dynamics - A significant decline in imports contributed to a 5 percentage point boost to GDP, a rare occurrence in economic history [5] - However, both business investment and exports experienced declines, indicating a weakening growth momentum amid high interest rates and slowing external demand [6] Inflation and PCE - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q2 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% but above the expected 2.3%, suggesting a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies [3][4] Real Estate and Inventory Impact - Residential investment fell at an annualized rate of 4.6%, the worst performance since 2022, as high interest rates deterred buyers and developers [7] - Inventory changes negatively impacted GDP by 3.17 percentage points, the largest drag since 2020, reflecting inventory buildup from earlier purchases being gradually cleared [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite strong Q2 GDP growth, underlying concerns about cooling domestic demand, inflation rebound, and weak investment persist, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery [10] - Analysts suggest that while the data appears strong, it may mask underlying issues, and upcoming reports on consumer spending, inflation, and employment will provide further insights into economic momentum [10]

【市场资讯】 数据显示，7月4日上海白银现货价格报价8897.00元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（8919.00元/千克）贴 水22.00元/千克。 （7月4日）全国白银价格一览表 规格 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8904元/千克 市场价 上海 上海华通有色金属现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8905元/千克 市场价 上海 长江有色金属现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8897元/千克 市场价 上海 上海白银现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8913元/千克 市场价 上海 上海白银 期货市场上看，7月4日收盘，沪银期货主力合约报8919.00元/千克，涨幅0.59%，最高触及8950.00元/千 克，最低下探8877.00元/千克，日内成交量达385997手。 7月3日，上期所白银期货仓单1340792千克，环比上个交易日增加2133千克。 7月3日芝加哥商业交易所（CME）：白银期货成交量为60640手，较上个交易日增加15784手。未平仓 合约为166220手，较上个交易日 ...

美国总统特朗普置评美国经济：经济复苏将需要一段时间，请保持耐心。 ...