Core Insights - The US services sector activity returned to expansion in October, with the ISM services PMI recorded at 52.4%, up from 50% in September, marking the eighth consecutive month above the threshold [1] - The business activity index rose significantly to 54.3%, a 4.4 percentage point increase from September's 49.9%, indicating a return to expansion [1] - The new orders index surged to 56.2%, a rise of 5.8 percentage points, reflecting improved demand in the services sector [1] Industry Performance - Eleven industries experienced growth in October, including accommodation and food services, retail, wholesale, real estate, healthcare, and transportation and warehousing [2] - Six industries faced contraction, including arts and entertainment, management services, finance and insurance, public administration, and construction [2] Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index remained in contraction at 48.2%, indicating weak hiring intentions despite a slight improvement from September [1] - The inventory index recorded at 49.5%, still in contraction, as businesses generally reduced inventory levels to manage demand and cost uncertainties [2] Price and Supply Chain Dynamics - The prices index rose to 70%, the highest level since October 2022, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector, driven by tariffs affecting material and service costs [1] - The supplier deliveries index stood at 50.8%, indicating a continued slowdown in delivery speeds, which is typically associated with improved demand or supply chain constraints [1] Order Backlog and Economic Signals - The backlog of orders index dropped significantly to 40.8%, the second-lowest level since 2009, suggesting that businesses can manage current orders without significant delivery delays [2] - Feedback from industries indicated mixed economic signals, with some sectors experiencing seasonal demand improvements while others faced challenges from import restrictions and rising prices [2]

Core Insights - The ISM reported that the US services sector unexpectedly stagnated in September, with the services PMI index at 50, a decrease of 2 percentage points from August, marking the first time since January 2010 that it has fallen to the neutral line [1] - The services sector, which contributes approximately three-quarters of the US GDP, continues to show overall economic growth for the 64th consecutive month, although the growth rate has significantly slowed [1] Economic Activity - The business activity index dropped to 49.9 in September, down 5.1 percentage points from August, entering contraction territory for the first time since May 2020 [1] - The new orders index remained in the expansion zone but fell significantly to 50.4, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] Employment Trends - The employment index has been in contraction for the fourth consecutive month, recording 47.2, a slight increase of 0.7 percentage points from August [2] - Companies reported increased employee turnover and delayed hiring due to cost and market uncertainties, with AI improving productivity in some sectors, affecting traditional hiring needs [2] Supplier and Price Dynamics - The supplier delivery index rose to 52.6, indicating slower delivery times, the highest level since February of this year [2] - The prices index remained high at 69.4, reflecting ongoing cost pressures in the services sector, with the index above 60 for ten consecutive months [2] Inventory and Backlog - The inventory index shifted from expansion to contraction, recording 47.8, the lowest level since January, as some companies reduced inventory in anticipation of falling commodity prices [2] - The backlog of orders index, while still in contraction, rose significantly to 47.3, indicating a slowdown in the rate of contraction [3] Sector Performance - Among 18 service industries, 10 reported growth in September, a decrease of 2 from August, with growth seen in sectors like accommodation, healthcare, and finance [3] - Sectors such as real estate and related industries continue to be a drag on the economy [3] Overall Economic Outlook - The ISM noted that despite weak service sector data, the September PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of approximately 0.4%, indicating economic slowdown but not recession [3]