投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 9月份，由于进入传统旺季，企业生产经营活动加快，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活 动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.8%、50%和50.6%，比上月上升0.2、下降0.3和上升0.1 个百分点，三大指数整体有所回升且高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。目前，国内 投资方面，房地产销售有所放缓，房企资金来源有所恶化，且投资端政策受限，房地产投资仍 旧偏弱；基建投资继续放缓，虽然专项债发行加快，但资金到位较慢，基础设施项目建设施工 进度整体较慢；制造业投资继续放缓；由于国外需求保持韧性但国内需求偏弱，制造业企业短 期补库动力有所下降，整体处于被动补库阶段。消费端增长速度有所放缓，但对经济的拉动作 用仍然较强。出口由于外部冲击缓和以及外需回暖，出口整体保持韧性，但未来随着美国补库 需求减弱出口增速或仍将放缓，出口对经济的拉动作用预计在四季度逐步减弱。整体来看，在 需求端，外需短期有所加快、内需短期回暖但仍旧偏弱，需求整体有所改善。在生产方面，由 于国内进入旺季以及外需回升，工业生产增速明显加快；预计四季度随着美国补库减弱，但内 需政策刺激对总需求形成支撑， ...

行业层面，BMO分析显示，1982年以来十次降息周期中，多数板块在首次降息后一年内上涨。通信服 务、非必需消费品、工业和信息技术板块通常表现突出，能源板块则长期落后。值得注意的是，本次降 息前表现疲软的能源、医疗保健、材料和公用事业板块，未来一年或现强于平均水平的反弹。 BMO维持2025年末标普500指数6700点目标价，对应每股收益275美元、市盈率24.4倍。该机构继续建 议增持科技、金融和非必需消费品类股，减持医疗保健和必需消费品类股，具体策略涵盖美国战术股 票、股息增长及SMID投资组合。 贝尔斯基梳理1982年以来标普500指数在首次降息或恢复降息后的10个周期表现发现，8个周期实现正回 报，随后一年平均涨幅约10.4%，具体结果因经济背景差异显著，从下跌近24%到上涨超32%不等。 贝尔斯基强调，股市能否强劲上涨取决于降息能否延长经济扩张并维持企业盈利增长，若货币宽松未能 阻止经济衰退，如2001年和2007年，股市将遭受损失。 当前经济形势显示有利因素占优：尽管劳动力市场降温，但亚特兰大联储估计就业增长仍保持完好，失 业救济申请人数按历史标准稳定，GDP增长略高于趋势水平，且预计2026年前企 ...

Group 1 - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all showed recovery in August, indicating that the Chinese economy maintains overall expansion despite complex external conditions [1] - Manufacturing PMI slightly increased, with production index remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, reflecting a continuous acceleration in manufacturing activities [1] - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.5%, the highest level this year, indicating a significant recovery in service sector sentiment, driven by increased consumer activity during the summer [2] Group 2 - The high-tech manufacturing PMI and equipment manufacturing PMI were reported at 51.9% and 50.5% respectively, significantly above the overall level, showcasing the potential of new growth drivers in the economy [3] - The recovery in manufacturing and service sectors is supported by effective policy measures, including tax incentives and R&D expense deductions, creating a favorable environment for high-tech manufacturing [3] - The construction sector's business activity index declined, reflecting both seasonal factors and the slow recovery in related industries such as real estate [3] Group 3 - Macro policies need to focus on precision and continuity to sustain economic stability, with an emphasis on tax reductions and financing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [4] - The release of the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Urban Development" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council aims to activate existing resources and support the real estate sector, promoting a positive interaction between urban development and economic transformation [4]

Economic Performance - The ICHI Composite Economic Index shows continued expansion, indicating a strengthening economic momentum in China[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index has significantly risen, returning to the expansion zone and reaching a new high in nearly a month[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, supported by consumption policies[2] Investment and Production - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, with high-tech industries seeing investment growth rates exceeding 15%[2] - The Production Index has improved significantly, with capacity utilization rates rising, contributing to economic growth[1] - Exports increased by 7.3% year-on-year, showcasing resilience in external trade despite a global slowdown[2] Employment and Inflation - The urban survey unemployment rate in July remained stable at 5.2%, consistent with the previous year[2] - In the UK, July CPI rose by 3.8%, the fastest increase in 18 months, driven by higher prices in travel and fuel[6] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising to 235,000, the highest since June[6]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The new orders index for manufacturing was at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, reflecting weakened market demand [1] - Despite the short-term slowdown, the production index remained at 50.5%, indicating expansion for three consecutive months [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [4] - The construction sector experienced a slowdown, with the business activity index at 50.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [4] - Service sector activity remained stable, with the business activity index at 50%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points [4] Group 3: Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first rise above the critical point since March [2] - The ex-factory price index was at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] Group 4: Business Expectations - Manufacturing enterprises showed optimism for future market conditions, with the production and business activity expectation index at 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from last month [3] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintained a stable optimistic outlook, with the business activity expectation index at 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points [4]

Economic Overview - The overall economic output in China continues to expand, despite fluctuations due to extreme weather conditions and a weak demand side [2][4]. Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [2]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, while the production index remained at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion for three consecutive months [2]. - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 50.6% and 50.3%, respectively, both above the critical point, showing sustained growth in these sectors [2]. Price Trends - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, while the factory price index was at 48.3% [3]. - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and black metal processing saw significant improvements in their purchasing and factory price indices [3]. Business Activity in Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point [5]. - The construction sector experienced a slowdown, with its business activity index at 50.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [5]. - Service sector activity remained stable, with a business activity index of 50%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [5]. Future Outlook - Manufacturing enterprises maintain a positive outlook, with the production and business activity expectation index rising to 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Non-manufacturing enterprises also show stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points [5].

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from June, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, and the comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, suggesting overall economic output remains in an expansion phase [1][4] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index and new orders index were recorded at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, both showing a decline from June, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% [2] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, with key sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintaining PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, indicating ongoing expansion [2][3] Price Trends - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw material purchase price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, both increasing from June [3] - The rise in prices was attributed to the increase in prices of major commodities such as coal and steel, which significantly impacted the manufacturing PMI [3] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight decline from June [4][5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable, with certain industries related to travel and consumption experiencing high activity levels, while construction activities slowed due to adverse weather [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic policies should be adjusted to stimulate demand, particularly through increased government investment in public goods and infrastructure [4] - The upcoming summer consumption is expected to positively influence economic activity in August, supported by ongoing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - Texas manufacturing sector shows signs of improvement for the first time since January, driven by reduced trade tensions and increased production [1] Summary by Categories General Business Activity - The general business activity index for Texas manufacturing rose from -12.7 in June to 0.9 in July, indicating a slight expansion in economic activity [1] - This marks the first time the index has been above zero since January of this year, suggesting a shift from contraction to modest growth [1] Sub-Indices - The sub-index for general business activity jumped 20 points to 21.3, the highest level in over three years [1] - Labor market indicators have also shown positive trends, indicating increases in employment and working hours [1] Orders and Capacity - The new orders index remains negative but shows a slowing rate of decline [1] - Capacity utilization and shipment indices have risen to positive values, reflecting improved operational efficiency [1] Price Pressures - Although sales price growth has slowed, high input price pressures continue to persist, presenting mixed signals ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1]

Group 1 - The overall economic expansion is being hindered by concerning signs of weakness, particularly in exports and consumer-facing service provider activities [1]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Russia increased by 0.07% week-on-week for the week ending June 30, compared to a 0.04% increase for the week ending June 23 [1] - The CPI has risen by 3.76% year-to-date in 2025, up from a previous increase of 3.68% [1] - Retail sales in May grew by 1.8% year-on-year, while construction activity increased by 0.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The volume of goods dispatched decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in this sector [1] - The unemployment rate stands at 2.2%, reflecting a stable labor market [1] - Salaries in April increased by 4.6% year-on-year, suggesting wage growth in the economy [1] Group 3 - The economy expanded by 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, indicating positive economic growth [1]