12月31日，步入2025年的尾声，黄金市场展现出了极强的统治力。FPG财盛国际表示，今年金价的亮眼 表现主要归功于四大核心驱动力的共同作用，即经济扩张、风险不确定性、机会成本下降以及市场惯性 动能。根据量化模型分析，这四个因素对年度涨幅的贡献比例极为接近，各占约10%左右。FPG财盛国 际认为，这种均衡的上涨结构预示着市场具备较强的韧性，而非单一因素推动的短期投机。 12月31日，步入2025年的尾声，黄金市场展现出了极强的统治力。FPG财盛国际表示，今年金价的亮眼 表现主要归功于四大核心驱动力的共同作用，即经济扩张、风险不确定性、机会成本下降以及市场惯性 动能。根据量化模型分析，这四个因素对年度涨幅的贡献比例极为接近，各占约10%左右。FPG财盛国 际认为，这种均衡的上涨结构预示着市场具备较强的韧性，而非单一因素推动的短期投机。 进入2026年，宏观环境的复杂性将进一步支撑黄金的战略地位。FPG财盛国际表示，当前的定价逻辑已 深度锚定了美元走弱及美联储利率调降的预期。如果经济数据出现超预期的走弱，促使货币政策进一步 宽松，金价有望在当前基础上再录得5%至15%的涨幅。FPG财盛国际认为，尽管2024年以来 ...

格隆汇12月22日｜欧洲央行管理委员会成员Peter Kazimir表示，欧洲央行以从容姿态告别今年，但若形 势变化仍准备随时采取行动。这位斯洛伐克官员指出，尽管前景面临的风险可能已收窄且趋于平衡，当 前通胀达标与经济稳步扩张的局面仍"相当脆弱"。他在周一发表的评论文章中强调，"我们保持灵活姿 态，若未来形势需要采取新行动，随时准备出手。敏捷灵活性仍是关键。"Kazimir指出，货币政策在抑 制欧元区史上最严重消费价格飙升的同时，成功维持了经济运行。他敦促政界推行结构性改革，以改 善"相当令人担忧"的长期增长前景。他表示，"尽管我们的货币体系井然有序，但更广泛的经济基础正 显现裂痕，仅靠利率调整无法修复。在国家层面和欧盟层面采取果断政策已成为当务之急。" ...

高盛发布研报称称，对2026年股票市场保持建设性看法，预期企业盈利将持续增长，但随着牛市扩大， 预期指数回报将低于2025年。同时，该行预期所有地区的经济将持续扩张，且美国联储局将进一步轻微 减息。因此，即使股市估值偏高，只要经济没有陷入衰退，股市亦很少显著下跌或出现熊市。 该行建议投资者保持投资，并分散资产于不同地区，尤其加强关注新兴市场。另外，投资者亦应均匀布 局增长及价值标的，以及不同行业，同时关注Alpha值较高的股份。 按地区市值加权并以美元计算下，该行料2026年股市价格回报率为13%，连同股息则为15%，主要由盈 利推动。而一般于周期后段出现的乐观阶段，估值都会有所上升，因此该行的预测仍有上行风险。 ...

隔夜油价小幅反弹，但短线反弹力度已经明显走弱，油价可能延续前期下跌趋势。 由于国际原油供应过剩，任何利空原油的因素都可能是推动油价进一步下跌的动力。近期美国总统特朗普就俄乌"和平计划"再 次向乌克兰施压，并称希望乌克兰迅速行动。有消息称，美国和俄罗斯官员预计将于本周末在美国迈阿密举行会晤，俄罗斯和 乌克兰实现和平的概率越来越大。 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金先扬后抑，短线快速刷新高点后回落，结构上有完成的可能，不排除中线见顶的可能性。 今年黄金走势表现突出，全年金价累计涨幅超过60%，推动这一轮黄金强势上涨的核心因素包括，经济扩张、风险与不确定 性、机会成本以及趋势动能，这四大变量共同作用，塑造了黄金在全球资产配置中的独特地位。而上述四大因素在2026年可能 仍将支撑金价，来自经济上的不确定性尤其明显，美国经济褐皮书已经发出了一系列的警示信号，美国经济可能会拖累全球， 特别是美国在全球化问题上的倒行逆施，会导致全球经济联系割裂，全球贸易衰退。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，黄金在全球资产配置中的多元化和风险对冲功能，已被全球投资者和政策制定者重 新认识和高度重视，也被证明是很有必要的。 技术面：黄金日线收小阴 ...

Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to gradually move towards expansion in 2026, with economic growth potentially higher than in 2025, characterized by a front-loaded low and a back-loaded high throughout the year [5][15]. - The first quarter of 2026 may represent a relative low point due to the prolonged government shutdown in October 2025, but subsequent recovery is anticipated driven by fiscal and monetary policy support [15][37]. - Consumer spending is projected to steadily recover, supported by the gradual realization of benefits from the "Big Beautiful Act" (OBBBA), which will reduce tax burdens and increase disposable income [15][20]. Market Performance - The US stock market is expected to see further gains in 2026, primarily driven by earnings growth, with an overall EPS increase of over 12% anticipated [5][43]. - The technology sector is expected to continue its dominance in the first half of 2026, while a shift towards cyclical sectors is anticipated in the latter half as economic recovery progresses [49][50]. Sector Analysis - Small-cap stocks are expected to show greater elasticity in 2026, supported by lower borrowing costs and pent-up demand as the economy enters the early stages of recovery [5][49]. - The technology sector is projected to maintain its leading position in the first half of the year, with significant contributions from earnings, while the second half may present risks due to potential stagnation in capital expenditures [49][50]. - Cyclical sectors such as industrials, real estate, consumer discretionary, and financials are expected to benefit from the economic recovery, particularly as real estate begins to thaw and new home sales show signs of improvement [5][49][57].

Summary of Conference Call on AI Bubble and Market Outlook Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market, with a focus on its potential burst by 2026, drawing parallels to historical market bubbles such as the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the "Nifty Fifty" in the 1970s [1][2][5][18]. Key Points and Arguments - **Current Market Sentiment**: The AI bubble narrative is expected to persist until 2026, posing market risks. The current state of the U.S. tech sector is likened to the early stages of the 1998 dot-com bubble, with the S&P 100 valuation at historical highs but low IPO activity and capital expenditure [1][2][4]. - **Monetary Policy Impact**: Historical evidence suggests that tightening monetary policy is a critical factor in bursting bubbles. The transition from loose to tight monetary policy, particularly through interest rate hikes, has historically accelerated market corrections [3][5][18]. - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: There is significant market uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December. Expectations dropped from 98% to around 40% due to hawkish comments from Fed officials, indicating limited room for aggressive easing [7][8]. - **Economic Resilience**: Despite short-term volatility in AI-related tech stocks, long-term prospects remain optimistic, supported by strong consumer resilience and liquidity from the government reopening. Companies like Nvidia are expected to provide critical earnings signals [11][12][18]. - **Future Scenarios**: Two potential scenarios for the Fed's actions are outlined: a dovish approach with multiple rate cuts leading to economic expansion and inflation risks, or a cautious approach with limited cuts that could act as a de facto rate hike [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Adjustments**: The U.S. government shutdown had a notable impact on market liquidity, but the resolution is expected to alleviate some pressure [9][10]. - **Sector Focus**: Investors are advised to focus on technology growth and cyclical sectors, particularly in the context of potential rate cuts. The real estate sector is highlighted as a promising area due to expected investment increases in a lower interest rate environment [15][19]. - **Global Market Trends**: The global stock market is anticipated to exhibit a resonance between economic and technological growth, with both the U.S. and China potentially entering a phase of synchronized expansion [14][18]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Specific sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and renewable energy (e.g., solar and lithium) are identified as areas of interest due to their cyclical nature and resilience in the current market environment [16][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the AI bubble, market dynamics, and future investment strategies.

Core Insights - The US services sector activity returned to expansion in October, with the ISM services PMI recorded at 52.4%, up from 50% in September, marking the eighth consecutive month above the threshold [1] - The business activity index rose significantly to 54.3%, a 4.4 percentage point increase from September's 49.9%, indicating a return to expansion [1] - The new orders index surged to 56.2%, a rise of 5.8 percentage points, reflecting improved demand in the services sector [1] Industry Performance - Eleven industries experienced growth in October, including accommodation and food services, retail, wholesale, real estate, healthcare, and transportation and warehousing [2] - Six industries faced contraction, including arts and entertainment, management services, finance and insurance, public administration, and construction [2] Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index remained in contraction at 48.2%, indicating weak hiring intentions despite a slight improvement from September [1] - The inventory index recorded at 49.5%, still in contraction, as businesses generally reduced inventory levels to manage demand and cost uncertainties [2] Price and Supply Chain Dynamics - The prices index rose to 70%, the highest level since October 2022, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector, driven by tariffs affecting material and service costs [1] - The supplier deliveries index stood at 50.8%, indicating a continued slowdown in delivery speeds, which is typically associated with improved demand or supply chain constraints [1] Order Backlog and Economic Signals - The backlog of orders index dropped significantly to 40.8%, the second-lowest level since 2009, suggesting that businesses can manage current orders without significant delivery delays [2] - Feedback from industries indicated mixed economic signals, with some sectors experiencing seasonal demand improvements while others faced challenges from import restrictions and rising prices [2]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to stop quantitative tightening in a matter of months to maintain liquidity in money markets [2][3] - There is uncertainty regarding the number of rate cuts, with discussions leaning towards two quarter-point hikes this year and more potential changes next year depending on personnel [4][3] - Recent bankruptcies in the auto sector raise concerns about systemic risks, although the current economic expansion has not shown significant deterioration in balance sheets [5][7][8] 分组2 - The current economic environment is characterized by a long stretch of risk-taking by investors, which could lead to mistakes during hot market conditions [6][7] - The expansion phase is not expected to end simply due to age, and the economy is described as being more resilient than in previous cycles [10][8] - The macro economy is likely to absorb sector-specific shocks, such as those from government shutdowns, due to the larger size of the private sector [14][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In September, due to the traditional peak season, corporate production and business activities accelerated. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.8%, 50%, and 50.6% respectively, showing an overall recovery and indicating that China's economic output remained in an expansion phase. However, there were still weaknesses in investment, and consumption growth slowed down. Exports maintained resilience but might slow down in the future. Overall, demand improved, production accelerated, and prices showed different trends [2] - The demand side saw short - term acceleration in external demand and short - term recovery but still weak internal demand. In production, industrial production accelerated significantly in September and was expected to slow down but continue to grow at a relatively high rate in the fourth quarter. Prices of domestic and foreign demand - type commodities showed different trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, better than the expected 49.7% and up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing market demand improved, with the new order index rising 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%. Production expanded faster, with the production index rising 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%. Both external and internal demand in foreign trade increased, with the new export order index and import index rising 0.6% and 0.1% respectively [3] - Manufacturing market prices dropped slightly. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index decreased by 0.1 and 0.9 percentage points respectively. Industrial production accelerated, but investment demand in infrastructure and real estate was weak. Domestic "anti - involution" policies supported domestic - demand commodities, and international commodity prices rebounded [3][4] - Both the finished - product inventory and raw material inventory increased. The finished - product inventory index rose 1.4 percentage points to 48.2%, and the raw material inventory index rose 0.5 percentage points to 48.5%. Enterprises actively replenished raw material inventory and passively replenished finished - product inventory [4] Non - manufacturing - In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The service industry remained in the expansion range, with some industries in a high - level boom range and others falling below the critical point due to the end of the summer vacation effect. The construction industry's business activity index rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, and its market expectation improved [5] Composite - In September, the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities continued to accelerate [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's shift towards interest rate cuts could extend the U.S. bull market, but future stock returns may be weaker than historical averages [1] - BMO Capital Markets' analysis shows that since 1982, in 8 out of 10 interest rate cut cycles, the S&P 500 index achieved positive returns, with an average increase of approximately 10.4% in the following year [1] - The performance of the stock market is contingent on whether interest rate cuts can prolong economic expansion and maintain corporate profit growth; if monetary easing fails to prevent economic recession, stock markets may suffer losses [1] Group 2 - BMO's analysis indicates that most sectors have risen in the year following the first interest rate cut since 1982, with communication services, consumer discretionary, industrials, and information technology typically performing well [2] - The energy sector has historically lagged, but sectors like energy, healthcare, materials, and utilities, which have underperformed prior to the current rate cut, may rebound stronger than average in the coming year [2] - BMO maintains a target price of 6700 for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025, corresponding to an earnings per share of $275 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.4 [2]